(144898) 2004 VD17
Discovery
Discovered byLINEAR
Discovery date7 November 2004
Designations
Orbital characteristics[1]
Epoch 2022-Jan-21 (JD 2459600.5)
Uncertainty parameter 0
Observation arc17.8 years
Aphelion2.3958 AU (358.41 million km)
Perihelion0.62008 AU (92.763 million km)
1.5079 AU (225.58 million km)
Eccentricity0.58878
1.85 yr (676.34 d)
133.93°
0° 31m 56.428s / day
Inclination4.2239°
224°
90.97°
Earth MOID0.0015 AU (220,000 km)
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter
320m[2]
580m (assumed)[3]
0.5–1.0 km (CNEOS)
Mass(0.13–1.8)×1012 kg
1.99 h (0.083 d)
E[2]
18.8

    (144898) 2004 VD17, provisional designation 2004 VD17, is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group once thought to have a low probability of impacting Earth on 4 May 2102.[3] It reached a Torino Scale rating of 2 and a Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale rating of -0.25.[3] With an observation arc of 17 years it is known that closest Earth approach will occur two days earlier on 2 May 2102 at a distance of about 5.5 million km.[1]

    Close approaches[1]
    Date JPL SBDB
    nominal geocentric
    distance    		 uncertainty
    region
    (3-sigma)
    2032-05-013140133 km± 127 km[4]
    2102-05-025568961 km± 50 thousand km
    2196-05-05996859 km± 354 thousand km

    History

    2004 VD17 was discovered on 7 November 2004, by the NASA-funded LINEAR asteroid survey. The object is estimated by NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office to be 580 meters in diameter with an approximate mass of 2.6×1011 kg.[5]

    Being approximately 580 meters in diameter, if 2004 VD17 were to impact land, it would create an impact crater about 10 kilometres wide and generate an earthquake of magnitude 7.4.[6]

    Elevated risk estimate in 2006

    From February to May 2006, 2004 VD17 was listed with a Torino Scale impact risk value of 2, only the second asteroid in risk-monitoring history to be rated above value 1.[7] With an observation arc of 1511 days, it was estimated to have a 1 in 1320 chance of impacting on 4 May 2102.[3] The Torino rating was lowered to 1 after additional observations on 20 May 2006, and finally dropped to 0 on 17 October 2006.

    2008 observations

    As of 4 January 2008, the Sentry Risk Table assigned 2004 VD17 a Torino value of 0 and an impact probability of 1 in 58.8 million for 4 May 2102.[5] This value was far below the background impact rate of objects this size. Further observations allowed it to be removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 14 February 2008.[8]

    It will pass 0.021 AU (3,100,000 km; 2,000,000 mi) from the Earth on 1 May 2032, allowing a refinement to the orbit.[1]

    Properties

    It has a spectral type of E.[2] This suggests that the asteroid has a high albedo and is on the smaller size range for an object with an absolute magnitude of 18.8.

    See also

    References

    1. 1 2 3 4 "JPL Close-Approach Data: 144898 (2004 VD17)". Retrieved 12 December 2021.
    2. 1 2 3 Luise, F. De; Perna, D.; Dotto, E.; Fornasier, S.; Belskaya, I.N.; Boattini, A. (2007). "Physical Investigation of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17". Icarus. 191 (2): 628–635. arXiv:0706.1140. Bibcode:2007Icar..191..628D. doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2007.05.018. S2CID 14400781.
    3. 1 2 3 4 "WayBack Machine archive from 17 April 2006". Wayback Machine. 17 April 2006. Archived from the original on 17 April 2006. Retrieved 7 August 2013. (7.6e-04 = 1 in 1,320 chance)
    4. ↑ "Horizons Batch for 2032-May-01 22:37 UT". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 12 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
    5. 1 2 "WayBack Machine archive from 4 January 2008". Wayback Machine. 4 January 2008. Archived from the original on 4 January 2008. Retrieved 7 August 2013. (1.7e-08 = 1 in 58,824,000 chance)
    6. ↑ Kimm Groshong (1 March 2006). "New asteroid at top of Earth-threat list". New Scientist. Retrieved 28 December 2007.
    7. ↑ David Morrison (1 March 2006). "Asteroid 2004 VD17 classed as Torino Scale 2". Asteroid and Comet Impact Hazards (NASA). Archived from the original on 14 October 2011. Retrieved 6 November 2011.
    8. ↑ "Date/Time Removed" (listed as 144898). NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 1 March 2008. Retrieved 13 December 2021.
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