2000 Mexican general election

2 July 2000
Presidential election
Turnout63.97%
 
Nominee Vicente Fox Francisco Labastida Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas
Party PAN PRI PRD
Alliance Alliance for Change Alliance for Mexico
Popular vote 15,989,636 13,579,718 6,256,780
Percentage 43.43% 36.89% 17.00%

Results by state

President before election

Ernesto Zedillo
PRI

Elected President

Vicente Fox
PAN

Senate

All 128 seats in the Senate of the Republic
65 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeader % Seats +/–
Alliance for Change Luis Felipe Bravo Mena 39.10 51 +17
PRI Dulce María Sauri Riancho 37.51 60 −16
Alliance for Mexico 19.29 17 +2
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Chamber of Deputies

All 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
251 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeader % Seats +/–
Alliance for Change Luis Felipe Bravo Mena 39.19 224 +95
PRI Dulce María Sauri Riancho 37.75 211 −28
Alliance for Mexico 19.12 65 −67
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.

General elections were held in Mexico on Sunday, 2 July 2000. Voters went to the polls to elect a new president to serve a single six-year term, replacing President Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León, who was ineligible for re-election under the 1917 Constitution. The election system ran under plurality voting; 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies (300 by the first-past-the-post system and 200 by proportional representation) for three-year terms and 128 members of the Senate (three per state by first-past-the-post – two first-past-the-post seats are allocated to the party with the largest share of the vote; the remaining seat is given to the first runner-up – and 32 by proportional representation from national party lists) for six-year terms.

The presidential election was won by Vicente Fox of the Alliance for Change, who received 43.4% of the vote,[1] the first time the opposition had won an election since the Mexican Revolution. In the congressional elections the Alliance for Change emerged as the largest faction in the Chamber of Deputies with 224 of the 500 seats, whilst the Institutional Revolutionary Party remained the largest faction in the Senate with 60 of the 128 seats in the Senate.[2] Voter turnout was between 63 and 64% in the elections.[3]

This historically significant election made Fox the first president elected from an opposition party since Francisco I. Madero in 1911, as well as the first in 71 years to defeat, with 43 percent of the vote, the then-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party.

Opinion polls

PRI candidate Francisco Labastida led in nearly all the polls throughout the first months of the campaign, although in the final two months his lead grew smaller; on the other hand, PAN candidate Vicente Fox was at second place in most of the polls, but in May and June his percentage of supporters increased and he led in many of the final polls.

Given that the overwhelming majority of the polls failed to predict Fox's victory and instead had indicated that Labastida would win by comfortable margins, it has been asserted that many of those polled lied about their preferences, fearing that if they stated support for an opposition party, they would be stripped by the PRI of the government assistance programs they were receiving. Indeed, the Reforma newspaper, which had predicted a Labastida victory in all of the polls they published during the campaign, attributed their mistake to the so-called fear factor.[4]

Date Poll source Fox
PAN
Labastida
PRI
Cárdenas
PRD
Others
Sample
size
Ref.
November 1999 Mund Opinion 39% 43% 18% 0% N/A [5]
Indermec 44% 39% 16% 0% N/A
GEA 38% 41.8% 16.5% 3.7% 1200
Reforma 33.3% 53.1% 9.9% 3.7% 1542
El Universal 33.8% 46.2% 11.7% 8.3% 1537
CEO 37% 47% 11% 4% 1500
December 1999 Pearson (PRI) 34% 47% 13% 6% 1647
El Universal 39.2% 47.1% 12.5% 1.2% 1475
Milenio 37.8% 42.2% 17.8% 2.2% 1006
January 2000 CEPROSEPP 32% 51% 11% 6% 1510
Reforma 38.6% 48.2% 12.0% 1.2% 1544
GAUSCC (PAN) 39% 45% 14% 2% 20 866
Pearson (PRI) 36.7% 49.7% 11.9% 1.7% 1678
GAUSSC (PAN) 42.4% 43.5% 13.0% 1.1% 1500
February 2000 Milenio 41.1% 42.2% 14.5% 2.2% 1200
CEPROSEPP 32.4% 45.5% 16.1% 6.0% 1346
GEA 44% 36% 18% 2% 1113
Technomgmt. 34.5% 45.3% 17.2% 3.0% 2697
El Universal 38.8% 41.8% 15.7% 3.7% 1438
Reforma 38.6% 47.0% 13.2% 1.2% 1510
Reforma 37.8% 50.0% 11.0% 1.2% 2397
Mund Opinion 35.7% 40.5% 22.6% 1.2% 1182
March 2000 CEPROSEPP 31.8% 46.1% 17.0% 5.1% 1322
Pearson (PRI) 33.4% 51.6% 13.6% 1.5% 1127
Milenio 39.3% 41.6% 16.9% 2.2% 1200
El Universal 39.7% 45.0% 12.7% 2.6% 1438
Reforma 38.6% 47.0% 13.3% 1.2% 1533
GEA 43.3% 38.8% 16.5% 1.4% 1200
Technomgmt. 32.3% 47.9% 17.0% 2.8% N/A
April 2000 CEPROSEPP 31.2% 45.7% 17.6% 5.5% N/A
GAUSSC 41.4% 46.0% 12.3% 0.3% 1500
Technomgmt. 32.7% 47.4% 17.7% 2.2% N/A
Reforma 42% 45% 12% 1% 1647
Quantum 36.9% 50.4% 10.0% 2.7% 1920
El Universal 39.2% 42.2% 14.0% 4.5% 1074
Reuters/Zogby 46.3% 41.6% 9.3% 2.8% 1062
May 2000 Pearson (PRI) 39% 45% 12% 4% 1590
Technomgmt. 39.1% 45.5% 12.5% 2.9% 8000
Reforma 40% 42% 16% 2% 1547
GEA 43.6% 38.6% 16.4% 1.4% N/A
El Universal 42.2% 35.9% 16.2% 5.7% 1787
Milenio 36% 43% 17% 4% 2005
CEO 39.0% 42.7% 15.1% 3.2% 2450
June 2000 Alduncin 41% 35% 20% 4% 2095
Alduncin 41% 35% 20% 4% 2095
CEO 39% 43% 15% 3% 2423
ARCOP 43% 38% 17% 3% 1400
Fishers 36% 42% 19% 3% 2750
GEA 39% 38% 19% 3% 2287
Mund/Dalla 36% 37% 27% 0% 1362
Reforma 39% 42% 16% 3% 1545
Reuters 41% 44% 15% 1% 1330
CM Político 38% 41% 18% 3% 1800
D. Watch 41% 36% 20% 3% 1542
Pearson 39% 43% 15% 3% 1309
Milenio/Nielsen 36% 42% 16% 6% N/A [6]

Conduct

Some isolated incidents of irregularities and problems were reported. For example, one irregularity in the southern state of Campeche involved the European Union electoral observer Rocco Buttiglione and could have created problems for President Ernesto Zedillo had the PRI candidate won. Overall, however, electoral observers identified little evidence that those incidents were centrally coordinated (as opposed to led by local PRI officials), and critics concluded that those irregularities which did occur did not materially alter the outcome of the presidential vote, which had been more definitive than expected.

Civic organizations fielded more than 80,000 trained electoral observers, foreign observers were invited to witness the process, and numerous "quick count" operations and exit polls (not all of them independent) validated the official vote tabulation. The largest exit poll was organized by the U.S. firm Penn, Schoen & Berland, financed by a Dallas-based organization called Democracy Watch with the support of the Vicente Fox campaign, who were concerned about possible election fraud.

Numerous electoral reforms implemented after the widely-derided and fraudulent 1988 election opened up the Mexican political system, and since then opposition parties have made historic gains in elections at all levels. The chief electoral concerns shifted from outright fraud to campaign fairness issues and, between 1995 and 1996, the political parties negotiated constitutional amendments to address these issues. The legislation implemented included major points of consensus that had been worked out with the opposition parties. Under the new laws, public financing predominated over private contributions to political parties, procedures for auditing parties were tightened, and the authority and independence of the electoral institutions were strengthened. The court system was also given greatly expanded authority to hear civil rights cases on electoral matters brought by individuals or groups. In short, the extensive reform efforts of the 1990s "leveled the playing field" for the parties.

Results

President

CandidatePartyVotes%
Vicente FoxNational Action Party15,989,63643.43
Francisco LabastidaInstitutional Revolutionary Party13,579,71836.89
Cuauhtémoc CárdenasParty of the Democratic Revolution6,256,78017.00
Gilberto Rincón GallardoSocial Democracy592,3811.61
Manuel Camacho SolísDemocratic Center Party of Mexico206,5890.56
Porfirio Muñoz LedoAuthentic Party of the Mexican Revolution156,8960.43
Other candidates31,4610.09
Total36,813,461100.00
Valid votes36,813,46197.90
Invalid/blank votes788,1572.10
Total votes37,601,618100.00
Registered voters/turnout58,782,73763.97
Source: Nohlen, INE

By state

State Fox Labastida Cárdenas Rincón Camacho Muñoz Write-in None
Aguascalientes202,335127,13426,2649,4672,2021,389836,291
Baja California429,194319,47777,34014,5623,4703,08050714,965
Baja California Sur60,83456,23045,2292,107460364172,804
Campeche104,498106,34735,0902,4851,4061,2475599,309
Chiapas288,204469,392272,1825,3404,6594,0631,05644,551
Chihuahua549,177460,93176,81011,5694,4873,16660921,350
Coahuila398,800311,48077,39310,3922,1111,8801,45412,464
Colima106,44581,09923,3133,1591,028542394,377
Distrito Federal1,928,0351,060,2271,146,131149,31236,38318,8432,00975,669
Durango211,361222,89250,5926,1441,5791,4698599,294
Guanajuato1,128,780517,815121,48918,24810,8008,4732,87349,039
Guerrero174,962402,091332,0916,1792,9133,00395420,180
Hidalgo282,864355,565136,86112,3195,0344,07875819,997
Jalisco1,392,535941,962163,26945,49417,56711,1103,28748,736
México2,239,7501,637,714961,876121,13740,73327,2033,41692,743
Michoacán419,188441,871543,80413,0587,4446,4042,06030,448
Morelos290,639193,861124,36812,5392,9163,01013612,296
Nayarit107,417173,47963,1213,0921,1751,0243517,043
Nuevo León760,093615,90796,63720,4487,4782,6581,51927,201
Oaxaca301,195486,496282,58711,0748,3727,3051,85139,616
Puebla732,435698,974208,68820,1708,6097,8491,14244,305
Querétaro290,977192,62239,62910,5853,7688,67017013,849
Quintana Roo132,38394,20250,4872,399916729705,216
San Luis Potosí393,997324,23472,59911,0733,3062,28740722,673
Sinaloa230,777621,32990,4887,2052,1891,6751,29015,920
Sonora447,496292,267114,5806,4261,6721,3259413,269
Tabasco174,840269,519213,9835,8172,5991,73265514,036
Tamaulipas521,486445,73791,4269,3873,2106,9321,15719,659
Tlaxcala123,880127,16382,0735,1852,5081,450536,639
Veracruz1,066,7191,008,933491,79125,47411,34310,95698558,630
Yucatán328,503321,39227,2144,2581,34498760213,127
Zacatecas169,837197,336117,3756,2772,9081,99343912,461
Total15,989,63613,579,7186,256,780592,381206,589156,89631,461788,157
Source: IFE

Voter demographics

Demographic subgroup Fox Labastida Cárdenas Other % of
total vote
Total vote 42 36 16 6 100
Gender
Men 47 32 20 1 52
Women 43 40 14 3 48
Age
18-24 50 32 17 1 18
25-29 47 34 16 3 16
30-34 49 34 15 2 15
35-39 47 37 12 4 13
40-45 41 35 20 4 11
46-50 44 37 18 1 8
51-54 46 40 13 1 6
55-59 32 43 24 1 5
60+ 35 42 22 1 8
Education
None 30 46 21 3 8
Primary 35 46 18 1 34
Secondary 49 34 15 2 22
Preparatory 53 28 16 3 21
University 60 22 15 3 15
Employment
Public sector 41 37 19 3 18
Private sector 53 31 15 1 26
Self-employed 42 36 19 3 24
Student 59 19 17 5 5
Housewife 41 43 15 1 25
Region
North 50 37 12 1 23
Center-West 48 37 12 3 18
Center 43 34 20 3 35
South 41 37 20 2 24
Source: Reforma.[7]

Senate

PartyParty-listConstituencyTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Alliance for Change14,339,96339.101314,208,97339.003851+17
Institutional Revolutionary Party13,755,78737.511313,699,79937.604760–16
Alliance for Mexico7,072,99419.2967,027,94419.291117+2
Social Democracy676,3881.840669,7251.8400New
Democratic Center Party of Mexico523,5691.430521,1781.4300New
Authentic Party of the Mexican Revolution276,1090.750275,0510.7500New
Non-registered candidates30,8920.08031,0790.09000
Total36,675,702100.003236,433,749100.00961280
Valid votes36,675,70297.7236,433,74997.71
Invalid/blank votes854,4592.28852,1062.29
Total votes37,530,161100.0037,285,855100.00
Registered voters/turnout58,782,73763.8558,782,73763.43
Source: Nohlen, IFES

Chamber of Deputies

PartyParty-listConstituencyTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Alliance for Change14,323,64939.198114,212,47639.14143224+95
Institutional Revolutionary Party13,800,30637.757913,720,45337.79132211–28
Alliance for Mexico6,990,14319.12406,948,20419.142565–67
Social Democracy703,5321.920698,6831.9200New
Democratic Center Party of Mexico430,8121.180428,5771.1800New
Authentic Party of the Mexican Revolution273,6150.750272,4250.7500New
Non-registered candidates30,4520.08030,3800.08000
Total36,552,509100.0020036,311,198100.003005000
Valid votes36,552,50997.6836,311,19897.68
Invalid/blank votes868,5162.32863,2622.32
Total votes37,421,025100.0037,174,460100.00
Registered voters/turnout58,782,73763.6658,782,73763.24
Source: Nohlen, TE

Campaign items (image gallery)

References

  1. Dieter Nohlen (2005) Elections in the Americas: A data handbook, Volume I, p475 ISBN 978-0-19-928357-6
  2. Nohlen, p470
  3. Nohlen, p455
  4. Kuschik, Murilo (September 2000). Las encuestas y la elección del año 2000. Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales. p. 8. Retrieved 2 September 2019.
  5. Kuschik, Murilo (September 2000). Las encuestas y la elección del año 2000. Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales. p. 8. Retrieved 2 September 2019.
  6. Aznarez, Juan Jesus (24 June 2000). "Fox y Labastida empatan en los sondeos a una semana de las elecciones". El País. Retrieved 3 September 2019.
  7. Klesner, Joseph L. (March 2001). "The End of Mexico's One-Party Regime". PS: Political Science and Politics. 34 (1): 110. JSTOR 1350318.
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