2006 United States Senate election in New Jersey
November 7, 2006
 
Nominee Bob Menendez Thomas Kean Jr.
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,200,843 997,775
Percentage 53.37% 44.34%
Menendez:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Kean:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Menendez
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Bob Menendez
Democratic

The 2006 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 7, 2006. Bob Menendez, who had served as an interim appointee, was elected to a six-year term in office. He defeated Republican Thomas Kean Jr. in the general election.

The seat was previously held by Democrat Jon Corzine, who resigned in January 2006 after being sworn in as Governor of New Jersey and appointed Menendez, a U.S. Representative, to the vacant seat. Filing for the primary closed on April 10. The primary election was held June 6.[1] Menendez and Kean both survived nominal intra-party challenges.

Menendez was the first Latino elected to statewide office. As of 2024, this is the most recent U.S. Senate election in New Jersey decided by a single-digit percentage margin.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

2006 Democratic Senate Primary[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Menendez (incumbent) 159,604 84.03%
Democratic James D. Kelly 30,340 15.97%
Total votes 189,944 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Ginty represented the conservative wing of the New Jersey Republican Party. Kean ran as a moderate.

Campaign

A showdown between Bergen County Republican Organization (BCRO) conservatives and a group of insurgent moderate Republican critics ignited into a shoving match between supporters, with Kean temporarily refusing to accept the BCRO endorsement of his candidacy, and refusing to run with the organization slate of nominees for the offices of County Executive, Surrogate, and Freeholder. As a result, Ginty was drafted by Bergen County conservatives to fill out the conservative slate of candidates in Bergen County for the Republican primary.[3] Kean eventually accepted the BCRO endorsement.

On March 20, Kean arrived late to a fundraising event for his campaign, after featured guest Vice President Dick Cheney had left, which some accused of him doing deliberately to avoid the chance of photographs of the two together.[4]

On March 27, at a news conference billed as a "major announcement," Kean called for state and federal tax cuts, asking Menendez and Governor of New Jersey Jon Corzine to support them.[5] In response, a spokesman for Menendez said the senator supports "balanced tax cuts," not just ones that benefit the wealthiest Americans while expanding national debt.

On April 1, at the Middlesex County Republican Convention, Kean won the Middlesex County Republican Organization endorsement for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate over Ginty by a vote of 79% to 21%.

On May 2, Ginty publicly called on Kean to stop soliciting the endorsement of the Sierra Club, which he termed an "environmental extremist group with a deep history of involvement in left-wing causes."[6] Ginty announced that he favors oil exploration in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, something that Kean and Menendez both opposed.[7]

Results

2006 Republican Senate Primary[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thomas Kean Jr. 129,794 75.63%
Republican James P. Ginty 41,828 24.37%
Total votes 171,622 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

The general election contest largely pitted Kean, running a campaign critical of Menendez's reputation for ethical ambiguity, against Menendez, who focused on national political issues, including the unpopularity of President George W. Bush and the Iraq War in New Jersey.

On June 13, Kean held a fundraiser in Ocean County featuring First Lady Laura Bush, at which both Kean and Bush noted Kean's political distance from President George W. Bush, claiming that Senator Menendez seems to confuse the two.[17]

On June 16, at a New Jersey Association of Counties speaking event in Atlantic City, Kean and his aides beat a hasty retreat from the ballroom engagement and "stampeded" into an elevator in an abortive attempt to avoid the press, only to exit on the same floor as they had entered. Kean declined to answer questions about the scathing attacks on his integrity which his opponent had delivered minutes earlier, instead opting to repeat "a few slogans."[18]

Kean and the Republican Party focused their campaign on Menendez's poor ethical reputation. In 2005, op-eds in The New York Times and the Star-Ledger complained of bossism by Menendez, claiming he runs Hudson County as a political machine.[19][20][21] The Bergen Record made an issue of Menendez's campaign spending, claiming the majority of his recent spending was not for traditional campaign activities.[22]

In late June, the Associated Press reported that Kean's campaign was planning to produce a film accusing Menendez of involvement in a New Jersey mob-connected kickback scheme "despite public records and statements disputing that claim." The AP noted that "[f]our former federal prosecutors who oversaw the case have said Menendez was never involved in any wrongdoing."[23] The New York Times reported that the charges conflicted with historical accounts and records portraying Menendez as a crusader against the very corruption of which he stood accused.[24] The film was never completed.[25]

In mid-summer, Jon Corzine and the Democratic-controlled state legislature held a brief shutdown of state government, which ultimately resulted in a sales tax increase.

On August 27, two Republican state lawmakers filed an ethics complaint against Menendez, alleging he broke conflict-of-interest rules as a State Senator and U.S. Representative rented property out to a nonprofit agency that receives federal funds. Menendez helped the organization win designation as a Federally Qualified Health Center in 1998. That designation allowed the agency to receive additional federal grants.[26] Menendez allies noted that the organization in question, the North Hudson Community Action Corp., which provides social services and health care to the poor and was founded in 1960, had received federal funding for years before Menendez was in Congress, and receives its funding based on mathematical formulas.[27] Menendez maintains that he rented the property out below market-value because "he was supportive of its work".[28] The total rent collected over nine years was over $300,000. Menendez questioned the timing of the complaints: "We have seen an orchestrated series of leaks, bogus ethics complaints and outright fabrications since the beginning of this campaign."[29][30] Menendez maintained that he received verbal clearance from the House Ethics Committee in 1994 before entering a lease agreement with the nonprofit.[29]

On September 8, Menendez identified Mark Davis as the House Ethics Committee lawyer whom he consulted, but Roll Call reported that Davis left the ethics committee in 1993, prompting Menendez campaign spokesman Matt Miller to offer an alternate explanation: "It was his recollection that he talked to him about this, but it must have been someone else. It was 12 years ago."[31] In September, U.S. Attorney Chris Christie subpoenaed records from the nonprofit. Some Democrats criticized the investigation, particularly the timing of the investigation and news leaks, as politically motivated. Governor Corzine said the investigation "has the appearance of being less than objective".[29][32] Kean said his campaign "absolutely" did not have any contact at any point with Christie or his office regarding the probe.[31]

On September 15, The Star-Ledger reported that on the same day in 2005 that Kean voted to preserve a $40 million tax exemption for Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey, he collected $13,300 in contributions from 17 company executives and their family members.[33] The report noted that Kean aides denied any connection between the votes and the contributions.

On September 28, The Star-Ledger reported that Menendez had fired his closest political adviser, Donald Scarinci, for seeking favors on Menendez's behalf. A 1999 recording revealed Scarinci asking a Hudson County psychiatrist, Oscar Sandoval, to hire another physician as a favor to Menendez. Scarinci also stated that he had helped Davila Colon, a former Menendez staffer, get a job with Carl Goldberg, a developer and major Menendez fundraiser. A spokesperson for the Menendez campaign stated that "Scarinci was using Menendez's name without his authorization or his knowledge."[34]

Around that time, Democratic blog Blue Jersey alleged that a member of the Kean campaign was posing as a disillusioned Democrat when posting comments critical of Menendez on the site. Major newspapers corroborated the claim, reporting that the IP address used to make the comments was identical to one used by Kean campaign spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker in official emails. Both Hazelbaker and Kean denied that she had been involved but did not explain the connection.[35][36] The same IP address was also used to make multiple edits to Wikipedia pages linking Menendez to the accusations of corruption that were a centerpiece of Kean's campaign strategy.[37]

In October, the Kean campaign drew scrutiny over its relationship with opposition researcher Christopher Lyon. Kean staffers denied that Lyon worked for Kean directly. "I think the selective outrage here is a little laughable," said Hazelbaker, who added that Mr. Menendez's former law partner, who was at his side when he was sworn in as a senator, had been convicted of dealing cocaine.[38]

The Kean headquarters was vandalized the night before the general election. Vandals chained and locked the doors to the headquarters and broke off keys within the locks, attempting to hinder the Kean campaign. The Menendez campaign denied any involvement.[39]

Debates/forums

In mid-September, Menendez declined a national debate with Kean on the popular Sunday morning talk-show, Meet the Press. A Menendez spokesperson stated that he preferred to focus on local citizens and press. Menendez did agree to take place in three locally aired debates with Kean to be aired between October 7–17.[40] Kean withdrew from the October 14 debate, sponsored by the League of Women Voters, insisting on a national TV debate as a condition of his participation.[41]

Both candidates agreed to participate in a virtual debate sponsored by the nonpartisan Hall Institute of Public Policy. Beginning in July and running through Election Day in November, the institute submitted questions to the candidates and then posted their responses on its website.[42]

Endorsements

The Sierra Club, which had endorsed both candidates in past races, endorsed Menendez, citing his "15-year, extremely strong record on many federal [environmental] issues — often achieving a League of Conservation Voters voting record of 100%."[43]

The New Jersey Educational Association PAC also endorsed Menendez.[44]

Polling

Source Date Menendez (D) Kean Jr. (R)
Quinnipiac November 22, 2005 41% 39%
Rasmussen Archived December 31, 2005, at the Wayback Machine December 7, 2005 38% 34%
Quinnipiac December 15, 2005 44% 38%
Fairleigh Dickinson January 16, 2006 25% 37%
Rasmussen January 25, 2006 35% 42%
Quinnipiac January 25, 2006 38% 36%
Strategic Vision (R) February 8, 2006 28% 33%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 39% 36%
Fairleigh Dickinson March 6, 2006 42% 37%
Strategic Vision (R) March 10, 2006 30% 32%
Quinnipiac March 20, 2006 40% 36%
Rasmussen March 31, 2006 39% 41%
Rutgers/Eagleton April 4, 2006 40% 35%
Fairleigh Dickinson April 6, 2006 38% 42%
Strategic Vision (R) April 14, 2006 32% 34%
Rasmussen April 18, 2006 36% 43%
Quinnipiac April 18–24, 2006 40% 34%
Strategic Vision (R) May 12–14, 2006 35% 35%
Rasmussen May 26, 2006 37% 40%
Quinnipiac June 7–13, 2006 43% 36%
Strategic Vision (R) June 16–18, 2006 38% 36%
Rutgers/Eagleton Archived July 2, 2006, at the Wayback Machine June 23, 2006 42% 38%
Rasmussen June 27, 2006 46% 40%
Strategic Vision (R) July 12, 2006 43% 37%
Monmouth University July 17, 2006 38% 37%
Quinnipiac July 17, 2006 38% 40%
Fairleigh Dickinson July 20, 2006 43% 40%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) August 2, 2006 38% 39%
Rasmussen Archived August 21, 2006, at the Wayback Machine August 4, 2006 44% 38%
Strategic Vision (R) August 17, 2006 42% 40%
Fairleigh Dickinson August 30, 2006 39% 43%
Rasmussen August 31, 2006 39% 44%
Strategic Vision (R) September 14, 2006 40% 44%
Quinnipiac September 20, 2006 45% 48%
Monmouth University September 24, 2006 38% 44%
Rasmussen September 25, 2006 40% 41%
Rutgers/Eagleton Archived December 20, 2006, at the Wayback Machine September 28, 2006 45% 44%
WNBC/Marist Poll September 30, 2006 37% 42%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC October 2, 2006 44% 41%
Strategic Vision (R) October 5, 2006 41% 46%
Fairleigh Dickinson October 5, 2006 46% 39%
USA Today/Gallup October 6, 2006 46% 43%
Quinnipiac October 12, 2006 49% 45%
Rasmussen October 14, 2006 42% 39%
Monmouth University October 22, 2006 48% 39%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC October 24, 2006 45% 42%
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg October 24, 2006 45% 41%
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D) October 23–25, 2006 45% 36%
Rasmussen October 25, 2006 45% 45%
CBS News/New York Times October 26, 2006 40% 39%
Rasmussen October 30, 2006 49% 44%
Strategic Vision (R) October 31, 2006 43% 42%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation October 31, 2006 51% 44%
Quinnipiac October 31, 2006 49% 44%
Rutgers/Eagleton Archived December 5, 2006, at the Wayback Machine November 2, 2006 46% 42%
Reuters/Zogby International November 2, 2006 49% 37%
Fairleigh Dickinson/PublicMind November 2, 2006 48% 38%
Rasmussen Archived February 24, 2007, at the Wayback Machine November 3, 2006 48% 43%
WNBC/Marist Poll Archived November 27, 2006, at the Wayback Machine November 4, 2006 50% 42%
Monmouth University/Gannett November 5, 2006 45% 42%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy November 5, 2006 48% 41%
USA Today/Gallup November 5, 2006 50% 40%
Strategic Vision (R) November 6, 2006 49% 42%
Quinnipiac November 6, 2006 48% 43%
OnPoint Polling and Research November 6, 2006 50% 41%

After the publication of an August 4 poll showing Menendez ahead, Kean appeared to surge into the lead according to subsequent polls by varying degrees, but within the margin of error. Some attributed Kean's early strong showing in the polls to uninformed voters confusing him with his father, the popular former governor and 9/11 Commission chairman.[45]

On the heels of an advertising blitz, Menendez reclaimed the lead in late polling. In light of to the race's volatility, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the race from "Leans Democratic" to "Toss-Up" or "No Clear Favorite" in their early September revisions despite the state's historically strong Democratic tilt.[46][47][48]

A September 2006 SurveyUSA poll showed Menendez's approval rating at 40% and disapproval rating at 40% with 20% undecided, resulting in a net approval of 0%.[49][50] The poll also found that Governor Jon Corzine received an approval rate of only 43%, with 48% of the state disapproving.[51]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Tossup November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] Tossup November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[54] Lean D November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[55] Lean D November 6, 2006

Results

United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2006[56]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bob Menendez (incumbent) 1,200,843 53.37% +3.26%
Republican Thomas Kean, Jr. 997,775 44.34% -2.76%
Libertarian Len Flynn 14,637 0.65% +0.41%
Marijuana Edward Forchion 11,593 0.52%
Independent J.M. Carter 7,918 0.35% +0.15%
Independent N. Leonard Smith 6,243 0.28%
Independent Daryl Brooks 5,138 0.23%
Socialist Workers Angela Lariscy 3,433 0.15% +0.03
Socialist Gregory Pason 2,490 0.11%
Majority 203,068 9.03%
Turnout 2,250,070 39.47%
Democratic hold Swing 3.26%

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

According to The New York Times, Kean was defeated in part because he "built a campaign around his portrayal of Mr. Menendez as a shady, self-dealing, machine-produced Hudson County boss who hangs out with criminals. When asked about his views on Social Security or the Iraq war, Mr. Kean frequently mentioned that his opponent was 'under federal criminal investigation.'"[57] A later Times editorial stated, "The Republican candidate, Thomas Kean Jr., based his campaign almost exclusively on negative ads and attack-dog accusations against his Democratic opponent, Robert Menendez. For a while, it looked like the strategy might pay off, but in the end Senator Menendez was elected by a comfortable margin. Voters in several polls criticized Mr. Kean's strategy."[58]

Kean likely also suffered from the unpopularity of Republican President George W. Bush and the Iraq War. Some pollsters demonstrated that concerns over the Iraq War and discontent with President Bush solidified the Democratic base in October's advertising blitz, and won over enough independents to seal off the fate of the Republican nominee.[59] On the eve of the election, a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll reported that 65% of likely voters said that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake, "including nine of ten Democrats and six of ten independents."[60] Observers also pointed out that "from the beginning, [Menendez] made much of his 2002 vote against the Iraq War Resolution, often referring to it as one of the most important votes of his career. He made it clear as well that he intended to make the race a referendum on the President."[61]

The ethical issues raised during the campaign did convince U.S. Attorney Chris Christie to open a criminal investigation into Menendez. In 2015, Menendez was indicted on unrelated federal corruption charges, which were dropped in 2018. The United States Senate Select Committee on Ethics "severely admonished" him.

See also

References

  1. ↑ New Jersey Election Deadlines, Politics1.com, accessed June 7, 2006
  2. ↑ "NJ US Senate – D Primary". Our Campaigns. Retrieved March 15, 2020.
  3. ↑ N.J. GOP Senate Candidate Faces Threat in June Primary, Fox News, April 25, 2006
  4. ↑ Cheney, but no candidate, at fundraiser, United Press International, March 21, 2006
  5. ↑ "Tom Kean for U.S. Senate press release". Archived from the original on June 17, 2006. Retrieved March 27, 2006.
  6. ↑ Daily Record Archived January 21, 2013, at archive.today, May 3, 2006
  7. ↑ Senate long-shot stands firm on policing border, The Record, May 25, 2006
  8. ↑ "NJ US Senate – R Primary". Our Campaigns. Retrieved March 15, 2020.
  9. ↑ Long-shot for U.S. Senate says online networking ‘for campaigning only’ Archived September 30, 2007, at the Wayback Machine, Trentonian, August 28, 2006
  10. ↑ "Len Flynn for US Senate. Libertarian Party". Archived from the original on October 25, 2006.
  11. ↑ "THE NEW JERSEY LIBERTARIAN PARTY". Archived from the original on December 5, 2006.
  12. ↑ "Hall Institute of Public Policy | New Jersey | Public Policy | Virtual Debate". Archived from the original on September 27, 2007.
  13. ↑ "Hall Institute of Public Policy | New Jersey | Public Policy | Virtual Debate". www.hallnj.org. Archived from the original on May 4, 2007. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
  14. ↑ "Hall Institute of Public Policy | New Jersey | Public Policy | Virtual Debate". www.hallnj.org. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
  15. ↑ "Hall Institute of Public Policy | New Jersey | Public Policy | Virtual Debate". www.hallnj.org. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
  16. ↑ "Hall Institute of Public Policy | New Jersey | Public Policy | Virtual Debate". www.hallnj.org. Archived from the original on March 11, 2007. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
  17. ↑ "Kean draws Laura Bush for Campaign Fundraiser", Star-Ledger, June 10, 2006
  18. ↑ Josh Gohlke, "Kean ducks confrontation", The Record (Bergen County), June 17, 2006
  19. ↑ "New Jersey's New Senator", The New York Times, December 9, 2005
  20. ↑ Tom Moran, The Past May Haunt Future For Menendez, The Star-Ledger, November 23, 2005
  21. ↑ Raymond Hernandez, "Menendez's Moment of Truth", The New York Times, January 16, 2005
  22. ↑ Herb Jackson, "Fund Raising Is Menendez's Meal Ticket," The Record (Bergen County), March 12, 2006
  23. ↑ "GOP's Kean Plans 'Swift Boat'-Style Film", Associated Press, June 30, 2006
  24. ↑ Jim Dwyer, "New Jersey Senator's Rival Faults Him in 80's Corruption Case, but History Disagrees", The New York Times, June 25, 2006
  25. ↑ "Kean Campaign Cancels Film on Menendez, Producer Says", The New York Times, November 3, 2006. Accessed April 5, 2008.
  26. ↑ "Feds probe Menendez rental deal: Senator took in at least $300,000 from nonprofit in Union City". The Star-Ledger. September 8, 2006. Archived from the original on April 10, 2015. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  27. ↑ Gohlke, Josh (August 26, 2006). "GOP calls Menendez rent profits unethical". northjersey.com. Archived from the original on March 9, 2007. Retrieved September 23, 2006.
  28. ↑ "Agency was paying rent to its champion: Menendez denies Kean's charge that role of landlord poses conflict". The Star-Ledger. August 25, 2006. Archived from the original on April 8, 2016. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  29. 1 2 3 Menendez questions timing of reported federal probe Archived September 26, 2007, at the Wayback Machine, Press of Atlantic City, September 8, 2006
  30. ↑ "Pair accuse Menendez in conflict", The Star-Ledger, August 28, 2006
  31. 1 2 "Menendez defends himself, denounces timing of probe", The Star-Ledger, September 9, 2006
  32. ↑ Chen, David W. (September 16, 2006). "U.S. Attorney Emerges as a Legal, and Political, Force". The New York Times. Archived from the original on January 15, 2021. Retrieved March 27, 2010.
  33. ↑ Deborah Howlett, "Democrats question donations to Kean: Horizon gave $13,300 on day of a big vote" Archived March 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine, The Star-Ledger, September 15, 2006
  34. ↑ "Menendez dumps a close adviser caught on tape seeking "favors"", The Star-Ledger, September 28, 2006
  35. ↑ A Blog Suspects That an Aide to Kean Posted Jabs at Menendez, The New York Times, September 21, 2006
  36. ↑ Kean aide denies a hand in blog hits on Menendez, Star-Ledger, September 21, 2006
  37. ↑ Edits made by 70.90.20.85, Wikipedia, September 21, 2006
  38. ↑ Laura Mansnerus and Mike McIntire (October 5, 2006). "A Behind-the-Scenes Player Draws Notice in New Jersey". The New York Times. Retrieved April 11, 2008.
  39. ↑ "MSN | Outlook, Office, Skype, Bing, Breaking News, and Latest Videos". Archived from the original on November 7, 2006.
  40. ↑ "Menendez declines national debate" Archived March 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine, The Star-Ledger, September 14, 2006
  41. ↑ "Kean demands adding a national TV debate vs. Menendez" Archived March 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine, The Star-Ledger, October 4, 2006
  42. ↑ Hall Institute of Public Policy - NJ Archived November 20, 2008, at the Wayback Machine, accessed September 12, 2006
  43. ↑ "Menendez Endorsed for US Senate" Archived November 27, 2007, at the Wayback Machine, from The Jersey Sierran, October–December 2006
  44. ↑ (Press Release) "NJEA PAC Congressional Endorsements," August 5, 2006.
  45. ↑ Fred Snowflack, "Some are confusing Kean Jr. with his dad", Daily Record (Morristown), September 6, 2006
  46. ↑ "2006 Senate Ratings" Archived October 24, 2006, at the Wayback Machine, Cook Political Report, September 7, 2006
  47. ↑ "Senate Balance of Power Scorecard Details" Archived October 12, 2007, at the Wayback Machine, Congressional Quarterly, retrieved on September 15, 2006
  48. ↑ "Sabato's Crystal Ball - 2006 Senate", Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, retrieved on September 15, 2006
  49. ↑ SurveyUSA News Poll, SurveyUSA, September 18, 2006
  50. ↑ APPROVAL RATINGS FOR ALL 100 U.S. SENATORS AS OF 09/26/06, SurveyUSA, September 26, 2006
  51. ↑ APPROVAL RATINGS FOR ALL 50 GOVERNORS AS OF 09/21/06
  52. ↑ "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  53. ↑ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  54. ↑ "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  55. ↑ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  56. ↑ Official List: Candidates for US Senate For November 2006 General Election Archived November 26, 2007, at the Wayback Machine, New Jersey Department of Law and Public Safety, Division of Elections, dated December 4, 2006. Accessed September 26, 2007.
  57. ↑ Mansnerus, Laura (November 12, 2006). "ON POLITICS; Sometimes, the Mud Sticks to the Thrower". The New York Times. Retrieved July 23, 2018.
  58. ↑ New York Times, November 19, 2006, "The Low Road, Revisited"
  59. ↑ Dan Cassino, Krista Jenkins and Peter J. Woolley, "Measuring "What if?" Standard versus priming methods for polling counterfactuals Archived July 15, 2012, at archive.today," Survey Practice. Vol. I, No. 4, Nov. 2008.
  60. ↑ FDU PublicMind, "Iraq Weighs Heavily on New Jersey Voters," November 1, 2006. Retrieved 04.25.11.
  61. ↑ Peter J. Woolley and Dan Cassino, "Why Menendez Won," The Polling Report, Vol. 22, No. 22, (November 27, 2006), pp. 1, 5-6.
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