2024 Pakistani general election
8 February 2024
All 336 seats in the National Assembly
169 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered128,585,760
 
Leader Nawaz Sharif Bilawal Bhutto Zardari
Party PML(N) PPP
Last election 24.35%, 82 seats 13.03%, 54 seats
Seats needed Increase 87 Increase 115
Map of Pakistan with National Assembly constituencies
Incumbent Caretaker Prime Minister

Anwaar ul Haq Kakar
Independent


General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan on 8 February 2024 to elect the members of the 16th National Assembly. The detailed schedule was announced by Election Commission of Pakistan on 15 December 2023.

The two major parties are Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.

Background

2018 elections

General elections were held in Pakistan on Wednesday 25 July 2018 after the completion of a five-year term by the outgoing government. At the national level, elections were held in 272 constituencies, each electing one member to the National Assembly. At the provincial level, elections were held in each of the four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA).

As a result of the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) became the single largest party at the national level both in terms of both popular vote and seats. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remained the largest party in Sindh and the newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) became the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, a hung parliament prevailed with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) emerging as the largest party in terms of directly elected seats by a narrow margin. However, following the joining of many independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form the government.

Opinion polling prior to campaigning had initially shown leads for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) over the PTI. However, from an 11-point lead, the PML-N's lead began to diminish in the final weeks of the campaign, with some polls close to the election showing PTI with a marginal but increasing lead. In the final result, the PTI made a net gain with 31.82% of the vote (its highest share of the vote since its foundation), while the PML-N made a net loss with 24.35%. In the lead-up to the elections, there had been allegations by some pre-poll rigging being conducted by the judiciary, the military and the intelligence agencies to sway the election results in favour of the PTI and against the PML-N.[1][2] The opposition to the winning parliamentary party alleged large-scale vote rigging and administrative malpractices.[3][4][5] However, Reuters polling suggested PML-N's lead had narrowed in the run-up to the elections, and that the party had suffered "blow after blow" which caused setbacks to any hopes of re-election.[6] Some[7] had termed the ruling PML-N "embattled... facing a number of desertion and corruption charges". Imran Khan proceeded to form the coalition government, announcing his cabinet soon after.[8] The newly formed coalition government included members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Pakistan Muslim League (Q).[9]

Regarding the voting process, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) outrightly rejected reports of rigging and stated that the elections were conducted fair and free.[10][11][12] A top electoral watchdog, Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), also said that the 2018 general elections in Pakistan had been "more transparent in some aspects" than the previous polls.[13] In its preliminary report, the European Union Election Observation Mission said that no rigging had been observed during the election day in general, but found a "lack of equality" and criticized the process more than it had in the Pakistani election of 2013.[14][15]

2022 constitutional crisis

On 8 March 2022, the opposition parties submitted a motion of no confidence against Khan to the National Assembly's secretariat.[16][17] On 27 March 2022, Khan waved a diplomatic cypher from US in the public,[18] claiming that it demands to remove Khan's government in a coup.[19] Though, later he changed his stance about the US conspiracy against his government.[20][21] On 1 April 2022, Prime Minister Khan announced that in context of the no-confidence motion against him in the National Assembly, the three options were discussed with "establishment" to choose from viz: "resignation, no-confidence [vote] or elections".[22] On 3 April 2022, President Arif Alvi dissolved the National Assembly of Pakistan on Khan's advice, after the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly rejected and set-aside the motion of no confidence; this move would have required elections to the National Assembly to be held within 90 days.[23][24] On 10 April, after a Supreme Court ruling that the no-confidence motion was illegally rejected, a no-confidence vote was conducted and he was ousted from office,[25][26] becoming the first prime minister in Pakistan to be removed from office by a vote of no confidence.[27][28][29] Khan claimed the US was behind his removal because he conducted an independent foreign policy and had friendly relations with China and Russia. His removal led to protests from his supporters across Pakistan.[30][31][32]

Schedule controversy

The general elections were supposed to be held in Pakistan less than 90 days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, which was prematurely dissolved on 10 August 2023 by President Arif Alvi on the advice of the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This meant that the election must be held not later than 8 November 2023.[33][34] However, on 5 August 2023, the results of the 2023 digital census were approved by the Council of Common Interests headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Therefore, elections were to be delayed to February 2024 at the latest, as announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). However, on 13 September 2023, President Alvi proposed 6 November 2023 as a date to the ECP and advised it to seek guidance from the Supreme Court for the announcement of the election date.[35][36][37][38] On 2 November 2023, the ECP and the President agreed on 8 February 2024 as the date for the general election.[39][40]

PTI de facto ban through intra-party election verdict

On 22 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) decided against allowing the PTI to keep its electoral symbol, asserting that the party had failed to conduct intra-party elections. Subsequently, on the same day, the PTI appealed to the Peshawar High Court (PHC) challenging the ECP's decision. Consequently, a single-member bench suspended the ECP's order until 9 January 2024. On 30 December 2023, the ECP submitted a review application to the PHC. In the following days, a two-member bench lifted the suspension order while hearing the case. However, on 10 January 2024, the two-member bench deemed the ECP's order "illegal, without any lawful authority, and of no legal effect." Responding to this, on 11 January, the ECP contested the ruling in the Supreme Court. On 13 January, a three-member bench sided with the ECP, reinstating their initial decision to deny the PTI its election symbol, the cricket bat, due to the party's failure to conduct intra-party elections in accordance with its constitution. Consequently, the PTI was unable to allocate party tickets to any of its candidates, resulting in all party candidates being listed as independent candidates with individual electoral symbols.[41]

Allegations of pre-poll rigging

Some observers have pointed to what appears to be pre-poll rigging in the run-up to the upcoming elections.[42] There have been notable actions against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and its leader, Imran Khan, particularly regarding the rejection of their nomination papers. This situation has led to widespread allegations of 'election engineering' and manipulative practices that could potentially favor certain political groups, casting doubts over the fairness of the electoral process.[43]

Schedule

The schedule of the election was announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan on 15 December 2023.[44]

Sr no Poll Event Schedule
1 Public Notice Issued by the Returning Officers 19 December 2023
2 Dates of filing Nomination papers with the Returning Officers by the candidates 20 December 2023 to 24 December 2023
3 Publication of names of the nominated candidates. 24 December 2023
4 Last date of scrutiny of nomination papers by the Returning Officer 25 December 2023 to 30 December 2023
5 Last date of filing appeals against decisions of the Returning Officer rejecting/accepting nomination papers. 3 January 2024
6 Last date for deciding of appeals by the Appellate Tribunal 10 January 2024
7 Publication of revised list of candidates 11 January 2024
8 Last date of withdrawal of candidature and publication of revised list of candidates 12 January 2024
9 Allotment of election symbol to contesting candidates 13 January 2024
10 Date of Polling and Counting of Votes 8 February 2024

Electoral system

The 336 members of the National Assembly consist of 266 general seats elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies,[45] 60 seats reserved for women elected by proportional representation based on the number of general seats won by each party in each province, and ten seats reserved for non-Muslims elected through proportional representation based on the number of overall general seats won by each party.

The government had passed a bill that required the next general elections to be held using EVMs (electronic voting machines). This was aimed at bringing an end to the allegations of rigging that have plagued previous elections in Pakistan, but the opposition's opinion was that it would make it extremely easy for PTI to rig the elections in their favour through security loopholes.[46] In 2022 when the PTI-led government was ousted through a successful vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly, the 11 opposition parties, some of them being long-time rivals, formed a new government and passed the Elections Amendment Bill, which nullified the use of EVMs in the next general elections. Hence, EVMs will not be used in next general elections.

Timeline

In July 2023 the ECP invited political parties to submit applications for the allocation of electoral symbols.[47]

As of 25 July 2023, the total number of registered voters in Pakistan stood around 127 million as compared to 106 million (including 59.22 million men and 46.73 million women voters) in 2018, according to the data released by the ECP.[48] According to the figures, the number of eligible female voters stood at 58.5 million (around 46 percent of the total registered voters) while the number of eligible male voters was 68.5 million (about 54 percent of the total voters).[49]

In late September the ECP announced that the citizens over 18 can update their voter details until 25 October 2023. The ECP decided to “unfreeze” the electoral rolls to allow registered voters to rectify or update their details.[50]

On 2 November 2023, President Arif Alvi and the ECP came to an agreement on holding general elections on 8 February, after a meeting was held in Aiwan-i-Sadr on the orders of the Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP). The SCP had instructed the ECP to consult with the President on the poll date.[51]

On 15 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan issued the election schedule. 22 December 2023 was set as the last date for filing nomination papers.[52]

On 22 December 2023, the Election Commission of Pakistan extended the deadline for the submission of nomination papers by two days to 24 December 2023.[53]

Parties

The table below lists each party that either received a share of the vote higher than 0.5% in the 2018 Pakistan general election or had representation in the 15th National Assembly of Pakistan. Political parties are ordered by their vote share in the 2018 elections. Independent Candidates bagged 11.46% of the vote and 13 national assembly seats (both general seats and total seats in the 15th National Assembly, as reserved seats for women and minorities, are given to political parties) in 2018.

Name Claimed
ideology(ies)		 Leader Voteshare
in 2018		 General seats won in 2018 Seats before election
PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
پاکستان تحريکِ انصاف		 Populism
Islamic democracy
Welfarism
Anti-corruption
Civic nationalism		 Imran Khan 31.82%
116 / 272
149 / 342
PML(N) Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ (نواز)		 Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Federalism		 Nawaz Sharif 24.35%
64 / 272
82 / 342
PPP Pakistan Peoples Party
پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی		 Social democracy
Islamic democracy
Progressivism
Third Way		 Bilawal Bhutto Zardari 13.03%
43 / 272
58 / 342
JUI-F Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl)
جمیعت علماءِ اسلام (ف)		 Islamism
Conservatism		 Fazl-ur-Rahman 4.85%
11 / 272
14 / 342
JI Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan
جماعت اسلامی پاکستان		 Islamism
Islamic democracy
Welfarism
Anti-corruption[54]		 Siraj-ul-Haq
1 / 272
1 / 342
MQM(P) Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan
متحدہ قومی موومنٹ(پاکستان)		 Liberalism
Social liberalism
Social democracy
Muhajir nationalism
Secularism		 Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui 1.38%
6 / 272
7 / 342
TLP Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan
تحریک لبیک پاکستان		 Islamism Saad Hussain Rizvi 4.21%
0 / 272
0 / 342
GDA Grand Democratic Alliance
گرینڈ ڈیموکریٹک الائنس		 Regionalism Pir of Pagaro VIII 2.37%
2 / 272
3 / 342
ANP Awami National Party
عوامی نيشنل پارٹی		 Pashtun nationalism
Democratic socialism
Secularism		 Asfandyar Wali Khan 1.54%
1 / 272
1 / 342
PML(Q) Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ(قائد اعظم)		 Conservatism
Pakistani nationalism		 Shujaat Hussain 0.97%
4 / 272
5 / 342
BAP Balochistan Awami Party
بلوچستان عوامی پارٹی		 Federalism
Islamic democracy		 Khalid Hussain Magsi 0.60%
4 / 272
5 / 342
BNP(M) Balochistan National Party (Mengal)
بلوچستان نيشنل پارٹی(مینگل)		 Baloch nationalism
Democratic socialism
Secularism		 Akhtar Mengal 0.45%
3 / 272
4 / 342
AML Awami Muslim League Pakistan
عوامی مسلم لیگ پاکستان		 Islamism
Populism		 Shaikh Rasheed Ahmad 0.22%
1 / 272
1 / 342
JWP Jamhoori Wattan Party
جمہوری وطن پارٹی		 Baloch nationalism Shahzain Bugti 0.04%
1 / 272
1 / 342

Opinion polls

Surveys near election showed that even if the PTI contests the elections with its own symbol Bat, the contest is likely to be very tough. As contrary to the general perception in the social and traditional media PMLN has significantly regained its lost ground even in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Since Nawaz Sharif's return home, the popularity gap between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and PMLN is rapidly decreasing and the situation in this regard has reached where it was on the eve of the 2018 elections. This situation is despite the fact that one month is left and no campaign has started for the general elections till now.

In a survey conducted 8 months prior to elction by Gallup Pakistan in June 2023, it was reported that the PTI's popularity was 15 percent higher than the Non-League's a week before Nawaz Sharif's visit to Lahore.According to the latest survey conducted between December 15 and January 7 2024, this gap has now narrowed to four percent. In latest survey, opinions were obtained from five thousand people from all over the country. Those who said they would vote for PTI gave this opinion because they wanted to vote for Bat symbol of PTI. The latest survey indicte shrinking gap in Punjab province being the largest province specially in its three out of four regions of province, South, Central and West Punjab and now the difference in popularity is almost negligible as it is just one to two percent. Since the pollsters also factored in a margin of error of two to three percent, the difference is negligible.However, in North Punjab, PTI's popularity is 10% higher than that of the PMLN. This region includes most of the districts of Rawalpindi region. This region is also called the Marshall Belt because the majority of army recruits are from this region. Pollsters generally believe that the military, both serving and retired, remains largely politically loyal to their institution, as evidenced by a survey conducted a few months ago.In the survey, the people of this region are being considered counter-balanced and that is the reason why PTI is leading here. It is also a fact that PTI is a popular party in all ranks.

Talking about the pulse of Punjab, this is proved in another survey. Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR) Executive Director Tariq Junaid says that the seats won by the Non-League in 2018 are largely intact. His organization is currently conducting surveys in various constituencies along with the PMLN to determine the best candidates for the elections.Tariq Junaid said that in Lahore and Gujranwala division, Non-League will probably retain the seats won in 2018.

Bilal Gilani, executive director of Gallup Pakistan, also agrees that the PTI is facing some difficulties in the current situation and this situation may have an impact on the voters. He said that PTI's current level of popularity might not win it in the elections, especially when the elections are a month away. He said that in 2018 both the parties got almost equal number of votes. The situation was changed by adding electables from South Punjab. [55]

See also

References

  1. ↑ "The assault on Pakistan media ahead of vote". Bbc.com. 4 July 2018. Retrieved 7 July 2018.
  2. ↑ Fair, C. Christine (27 July 2018). "Pakistan's Sham Election". Foreign Affairs. Retrieved 6 August 2018.
  3. ↑ "Ex-cricketer Khan leads Pakistan elections in early counting". BBC News. 26 July 2018. Retrieved 27 July 2018.
  4. ↑ Gannon, Kathy (26 July 2018). "Unofficial Results in Pakistan's Election Show Lead For Imran Khan, But Opponents Allege Fraud". TIME Magazine. Archived from the original on 29 July 2018. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
  5. ↑ Shah, Saeed (25 July 2018). "Ex-Cricket Star Imran Khan Headed for Pakistan Election Victory". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
  6. ↑ "Blow after blow dims re-election hopes of Pakistan's ruling party". 11 May 2018 – via uk.reuters.com.
  7. ↑ "Pakistan's ex-PM Nawaz Sharif slammed for Mumbai attack comments". aljazeera.com.
  8. ↑ "Imran Khan Close to Forming Pakistan Coalition, Cabinet Decided". Bloomberg.com. 30 July 2018. Retrieved 5 October 2020.
  9. ↑ Stacey, Kiran (27 July 2018). "Imran Khan starts to build governing coalition in Pakistan". Financial Times.
  10. ↑ "Pakistan election: Party of Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif concedes to Imran Khan". BBC News. 27 July 2018.
  11. ↑ "ECP rejects political parties' claim of 'rigging' on election day". 25 July 2018.
  12. ↑ "'PML-N rejects poll results,' declares Shahbaz Sharif". Dawn. 25 July 2018. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
  13. ↑ "FAFEN satisfied with transparency of polls, urges ECP to allay opposition's concerns". 27 July 2018.
  14. ↑ Barker, Memphis (27 July 2018). "EU piles pressure on Imran Khan after Pakistan election". theguardian.com. Retrieved 28 July 2018.
  15. ↑ "EU monitors team says Pakistan election not a level playing field". Geo TV news. 28 July 2018.
  16. ↑ "Opposition submits no-confidence motion against PM Imran Khan". www.geo.tv. Retrieved 9 March 2022.
  17. ↑ Shahzad, Asif (8 March 2022). "Pakistani opposition moves no-confidence motion to seek PM Khan's ouster". Reuters. Retrieved 4 April 2022.
  18. ↑ Malik, Hasnaat (10 April 2022). "Imran Khan sends diplomatic cypher to CJP". The Express Tribune.
  19. ↑ "Copy of cipher 'missing' from PM House records, cabinet told". Dawn. 30 September 2022.
  20. ↑ Hussain, Abid (14 November 2022). "Imran Khan's U-turn: No longer blaming US for his ouster as PM". Al Jazeera.
  21. ↑ "Imran Khan seeks to repair ties with US; says cipher conspiracy is over". The News International. 13 November 2022.
  22. ↑ "All institutions were on board over former PM's Russia visit: DG ISPR". ARY News. arynews.tv. 14 April 2022. Retrieved 15 April 2022.
  23. ↑ "Imran Khan advised President Alvi to dissolve assemblies". 3 April 2022.
  24. ↑ National Assembly of Pakistan (28 February 2012). "The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan" (PDF). Retrieved 10 April 2022.
  25. ↑ "Imran Khan ousted as Pakistan's PM after key vote". BBC News. 9 April 2022.
  26. ↑ "Imran Khan becomes first PM to be ousted via no-trust vote". The Express Tribune. 9 April 2022. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  27. ↑ Chaudhry, Fahad (9 April 2022). "Imran Khan loses no-trust vote, prime ministerial term comes to unceremonious end". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  28. ↑ "Live updates: NA votes out PM Imran Khan in a historic first for Pakistan". www.thenews.com.pk. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  29. ↑ "No-trust motion: Imran Khan becomes first prime minister to be voted out of pow". Latest News – The Nation. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  30. ↑ "Protests in Pakistan over Khan's removal, Sharif set to be new PM". www.aljazeera.com. 11 April 2022. Retrieved 14 April 2022. Khan has claimed the US worked behind the scenes to bring him down, purportedly because of Washington's displeasure over his independent foreign policy choices, which often favour China and Russia.
  31. ↑ "Imran Khan supporters stage protests across Pakistan against his ouster as PM". The Economic Times. 11 April 2022. Retrieved 14 April 2022.
  32. ↑ "Imran Khan supporters stage protests across Pakistan against his ouster as PM". The New Indian Express. 11 April 2022. Retrieved 14 April 2022.
  33. ↑ "National Assembly stands dissolve as President Alvi signs summary". Ary News. 9 August 2023.
  34. ↑ Khan, Sanaullah (9 August 2023). "Govt tenure comes to end as President Alvi signs off on NA dissolution". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
  35. ↑ "Pakistan's general election may be delayed by new census". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 6 August 2023.
  36. ↑ Sadozai, Irfan (17 August 2023). "Election delay all but certain as ECP decides to go for fresh delimitation". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 17 August 2023.
  37. ↑ Khan, Iftikhar A. (31 August 2023). "ECP 'promises' polls by mid-February, at the most". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 31 August 2023.
  38. ↑ Sadozai, Irfan (13 September 2023). "President Alvi proposes Nov 6 as election date". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 13 September 2023.
  39. ↑ Sadozai, Irfan; Guramani, Nadir; Bhatti, Haseeb; Momand, Abdullah (2 November 2023). "President, ECP agree on holding elections on Feb 8". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 2 November 2023.
  40. ↑ "Pakistan sets elections for February 8". Al Jazeera. 2 November 2023. Retrieved 14 November 2023.
  41. ↑ Bhatti, Haseeb (13 January 2024). "PTI bat-tered, loses iconic electoral symbol as SC restores ECP order". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 13 January 2024.
  42. ↑ Sadozai, Irfan (15 December 2023). "Election Engineering in Pakistan". aljazeera.COM. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  43. ↑ Sadozai, Irfan (15 December 2023). "Pakistan Election Subject To 'Pre-Poll Rigging,' Says Rights Watchdog". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  44. ↑ Sadozai, Irfan (15 December 2023). "ECP issues election schedule for Feb 8 general polls". DAWN.COM. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  45. ↑ ECP decreases NA seats to 336 in preliminary delimitation of constituencies GEO TV, 31 May 2022
  46. ↑ "PM vows to defeat the 'corrupt'". The Express Tribune. 25 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  47. ↑ Khan, Iftikhar A. (2 July 2023). "ECP asks political parties to apply for election symbols". DAWN.
  48. ↑ Khan, Iftikhar A. (20 September 2023). "11.7m women added to voter list, but vast gender gap remains". DAWN.
  49. ↑ Sadozai, Irfan (19 September 2023). "Number of registered voters in Pakistan rises by 21m in four years". DAWN.
  50. ↑ Khan, Iftikhar A. (29 September 2023). "Citizens allowed to amend voting information till Oct 25". DAWN.
  51. ↑ "President, ECP agree on holding elections on February 8". DAWN. 2 November 2023.
  52. ↑ "ECP issues schedule for Feb 8 general elections". 15 December 2023.
  53. ↑ "Two more days granted for polls nominations". 22 December 2023.
  54. ↑ "JI to transform Pakistan into corruption-free Islamic welfare state: Siraj". Dunya News. 9 December 2023. Retrieved 12 January 2024.
  55. ↑ "نواز شریف کی واپسی، پی ٹی آئی اور نون لیگ کے درمیان مقبولیت کا فرق تیزی سے کم ہونے لگا".
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.