Previous election

In the previous state election held on 27 October 2019, The Left became the largest party for the first time in any German state, winning 31.0% of votes cast. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) made the largest gains, increasing its voteshare by almost 13 percentage points and became the second largest party with 23.4%. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had previously been the largest party in the Landtag, lost almost 12 points and fell to third place with 21.7%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) placed fourth on 8.2%. The Greens narrowly retained their position in the legislature, winning 5.2% of votes. The Free Democratic (FDP) entered the Landtag for the first time since 2009, exceeding the 5% electoral threshold by just 73 votes.^[9]

Incumbent Minister President Bodo Ramelow of The Left had led a coalition government of The Left, SPD, and Greens since 2014. The Left's gains were offset by losses for the SPD and Greens, and the coalition lost its majority.

Government crisis

On 5 February, the Landtag narrowly elected the FDP's state leader Thomas Kemmerich as Minister President, with 45 votes to incumbent Bodo Ramelow's 44. Kemmerich was elected with the support of the FDP, CDU and, controversially, the AfD. This was the first time AfD had been involved in the election of a head of state government in Germany. The apparent cooperation of the three parties was viewed by some as breaking the cordon sanitaire around AfD which had been in place since its formation, in which all other parties sought to deny AfD government or political influence, refusing to negotiate or work with them on any level. This sparked major controversy nationwide, with many politicians expressing their outrage, including federal Chancellor and former CDU leader Angela Merkel, who described it as "unforgivable" and condemned her party's involvement.^[10][11] Kemmerich announced his pending resignation on 6 February, just a day after taking office. He submitted his resignation 8 February, but remained in office in an interim capacity.^[12]

Following discussions, The Left, CDU, SPD, and Greens announced on 21 February that they had reached an agreement to hold a new election for Minister President on 4 March 2020, and a new state election on 25 April 2021. The four parties stated that they would support Ramelow for Minister President, and that he would lead an interim government for the next 13 months until the election is held. This government would comprise the same red-red-green arrangement which governed Thuringia from 2014 to February 2020 but would not seek to pass a budget before the election.^[1] Between them, the four parties hold 63 of the 90 seats in the Landtag (70%), more than the two-thirds required to dissolve the Landtag and trigger an early election. Ramelow was elected Minister President by the Landtag after three rounds of voting on 4 March. In the first two rounds, The Left, SPD, and Greens voted for Ramelow, while AfD voted for Höcke, the CDU abstained, and the FDP did not vote or abstain. In the third round, Höcke withdrew, and Ramelow was elected with 43 in favour, 23 against, and 20 abstentions.^[13]

Lead candidates

On 15 June 2020, the SPD elected Georg Maier as state chairman and lead candidate for the planned 2021 election. This came after previous leader Wolfgang Tiefensee resigned his position.^[14]

In September 2020, former Federal Commissioner for the New States Christian Hirte was elected as state CDU chairman, succeeding Mike Mohring, who had resigned during the government crisis in February.^[15] On 17 November, the state executive nominated parliamentary group leader Mario Voigt as their preferred lead candidate.^[16]

After extended pressure from the federal FDP as well as other state branches, Thomas Kemmerich announced on 11 December that he would not stand as his party's lead candidate in the planned 2021 election.^[17]

Party polling

Hypothetical scenarios

Minister President polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size										None/ Unsure	Lead
			Ramelow Linke	Höcke AfD	Mohring CDU	Voigt CDU	Maier SPD	Siegesmund Grüne	Kemmerich FDP	Kindervater Independent	Wagenknecht BSW
Wahlkreisprognose	17–24 Dec 2023	987	40	30	–	11	4	–	6	–	–	9	10
			33	26		10	4		5		13	9	7
			50	27		–	–		–		–	23	23
			45	–		24						31	21
			49			–	13					38	36
			–	20			25					55	5
				28		30	–					42	2
			45	–		–					15	40	30
INSA	30 Oct – 7 Nov 2023	1,000	34	18		12	4				–	31	16
INSA	17–24 Apr 2023	1,000	35	16		12	6					31	19
Wahlkreisprognose	5–11 Dec 2022	1,016	41	31		8	8					12	10
Wahlkreisprognose	25–31 Oct 2022	1,008	35	26		11	14					14	9
Wahlkreisprognose	29 Aug–6 Sep 2022	1,000	32	26		14	14					14	6
INSA	4–11 Jul 2022	1,019	38	11		4	3					44	27
Wahlkreisprognose	23–30 May 2022	1,000	40	18		15	16					11	22
Wahlkreisprognose	6–14 Apr 2022	994	38	16		13	18					15	20
INSA	4–11 Apr 2022	1,027	37	9		5	–					49	28
INSA	24 Aug–2 Sep 2020	1,012	42	9		7	3	2	5			32	33
INSA	5–9 Mar 2020	1,034	56	16		–	–	–	–			21	40
Forsa	6 Feb 2020	1,003	64	–	9				6	3		18	55
Infratest dimap	21–25 Jan 2020	1,000	60	9	19				–	–		10	41

Preferred coalition