2016 Saxony-Anhalt state election
13 March 2016
All 87 seats in the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt
44 seats needed for a majority
Turnout1,122,877 (61.1%)
Increase 9.9%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Reiner Haseloff André Poggenburg Wulf Gallert
Party CDU AfD Left
Last election 41 seats, 32.5% Did not exist 29 seats, 23.7%
Seats won 30 25 16
Seat change Decrease 11 Increase 25 Decrease 13
Popular vote 334,139 272,496 183,290
Percentage 29.8% 24.3% 16.3%
Swing Decrease 2.7% New party Decrease 7.4%
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Katrin Budde Claudia Dalbert Frank Sitta
Party SPD Greens FDP
Last election 26 seats, 21.5% 9 seats, 7.1% 0 seats, 3.8%
Seats won 11 5 0
Seat change Decrease 15 Decrease 4 Steady 0
Popular vote 119,368 58,209 54,565
Percentage 10.6% 5.2% 4.9%
Swing Decrease 10.9% Decrease 1.9% Increase 1.1%
Results for the single-member constituencies
Minister-President before election

Reiner Haseloff
CDU

 Elected Minister-President

Reiner Haseloff
CDU

The 2016 Saxony-Anhalt state election was held on 13 March 2016 to elect the members of the 7th Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt. The incumbent grand coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Minister-President Reiner Haseloff lost its majority. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) debuted at 24.3%, with every other parliamentary party recording losses, particularly the SPD and The Left.

The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the SPD and The Greens, which was dubbed the "Kenya coalition".[1] Haseloff was re-elected as Minister-President on 25 April.[2]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 6th Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2011 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands		 Christian democracy Reiner Haseloff 32.5%
41 / 105
Linke The Left
Die Linke		 Democratic socialism Wulf Gallert 23.7%
29 / 105
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands		 Social democracy Katrin Budde 21.5%
26 / 105
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen		 Green politics Claudia Dalbert 7.1%
9 / 105

Opinion polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CDU Linke SPD Grüne FDP AfD Others Lead
2016 state election 13 Mar 2016 – 29.8 16.3 10.6 5.2 4.9 24.3 9.0 5.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 7–10 Mar 2016 1,096 32 21 14 5 4.5 18 5.5 11
Forsa 2–8 Mar 2016 1,001 30 20 17 5 5 18 5 10
INSA 1–5 Mar 2016 1,000 29 20 15.5 6 4 19 6.5 9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 29 Feb–3 Mar 2016 1,027 32 20 15 5 4 17 7 12
Infratest dimap 29 Feb–2 Mar 2016 1,001 31.0 21.0 15.0 5.5 4.5 19.0 4.0 10.0
uniQma 19–29 Feb 2016 1,008 30 19 18 5 4 17 7 11
INSA 25–27 Feb 2016 1,001 29.5 20 17 5 5 17 6.5 9.5
INSA 19–20 Feb 2016 1,000 30 21 16 5 4 17 7 9
Infratest dimap 10–13 Feb 2016 1,001 32 20 18 5 4 17 4 12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 11–13 Jan 2016 1,003 33 19 19 5 3 15 5 14
INSA 25 Nov–3 Dec 2015 1,004 35 23 15.5 6 3 13.5 4 12
Infratest dimap 8–12 Sep 2015 1,001 34 26 21 7 – 5 7 8
GMS 19–26 Jun 2015 1,008 35 21 21 6 4 6 7 14
Infratest dimap 9–14 Aug 2013 1,000 39 22 21 7 2 – 9 17
2011 state election 20 Mar 2011 – 32.5 23.7 21.5 7.1 3.8 – 11.3 8.8

Election result

The actual result was significantly different from what prior opinion polling indicated. In comparison to the late-campaign polls, the AfD scored approximately 6% higher, while The Left and SPD each scored around 5% lower. The Left were expected to suffer only small losses, but instead achieved their worst result since 1990. This made AfD the clear second-place finisher, in contrast to polling which predicted The Left would remain the second largest party. The SPD, who were already projected to achieve their worst ever result in the state, suffered a catastrophic result, losing over half their voteshare and barely reaching 10%. The Greens narrowly returned to the Landtag, while the FDP fell barely 1,600 votes short of the 5% threshold. Minor parties performed better than expected, with 9% of votes going to them, compared to the 5–6% predicted.

Summary of the 13 March 2016 election results for the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt
Party Votes  % +/- Seats +/- Seats %
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 334,139 29.8 Decrease2.7 30 Decrease11 34.5
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 272,496 24.3 New 25 New 28.7
The Left (Linke) 183,290 16.3 Decrease7.4 16 Decrease13 18.4
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 119,368 10.6 Decrease10.9 11 Decrease15 12.6
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) 58,209 5.2 Decrease1.9 5 Decrease4 5.7
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 54,565 4.9 Increase1.1 0 ±0 0
Free Voters (FW) 24,269 2.2 Decrease0.6 0 ±0 0
National Democratic Party (NPD) 21,230 1.9 Decrease2.7 0 ±0 0
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) 16,611 1.5 Decrease0.1 0 ±0 0
Animal Protection Alliance 11,653 1.0 New 0 New 0
Others 27,047 2.4 0 ±0 0
Total 1,122,877 100.0 87 Decrease18
Voter turnout 61.1 Increase9.9
Popular Vote
CDU
 
 29.76%
AfD
 
 24.27%
DIE LINKE
 
 16.32%
SPD
 
 10.63%
GRÜNE
 
 5.18%
FDP
 
 4.86%
Other
 
 8.98%
Landtag seats
CDU
 
 34.48%
AfD
 
 28.74%
DIE LINKE
 
 18.39%
SPD
 
 12.64%
GRÜNE
 
 5.75%

Results by District

Salzwedel
Party Candidate Constituency Regional
Votes % ±% Votes % ±%
'Christian Democratic Union (CDU)' Carsten Borchert 6,882 33.6 Increase2.8 6,379 31.0 Increase2.3
Alternative for Germany (AfD) Stephan Botkus 4,471 21.9 new 4,488 21.8 new
The Left (Linke) Andreas Höppner 3,591 17.6 Decrease11.9 3,592 17.5 Decrease9.1
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Jana Schweizer 3,156 15.4 Decrease5.5 2,674 13.0 Decrease9.1
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) Christian Franke 1,165 5.7 Decrease1.6 1,320 6.4 Decrease2.2
Independent Sabine Danicke 1,189 5.8 new
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 748 3.6 Decrease1.8
National Democratic Party (NPD) 284 1.4 Decrease2.4
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) 259 1.3 Decrease0.1
Free Voters (FW) 193 0.9 Decrease1.0
Gardelegen-Klötze
Party Candidate Constituency Regional
Votes % ±% Votes % ±%
'Christian Democratic Union (CDU)' Uwe Harms 6,353 30.5 Decrease3.4 6,837 32.6 Increase0.3
Alternative for Germany (AfD) Thomas Korell 5,014 24.0 new 4,591 21.9 new
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Jürgen Barth 3,772 18.1 Decrease4.7 2,752 13.1 Decrease9.9
The Left (Linke) Kay Grahmann 3,354 18.1 Decrease4.7 3,302 15.7 Decrease8.6
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) Mirko Wolff 1,219 5.8 Increase0.1 977 4.7 Decrease1.5
Free Democratic Party (FDP) Norbert Ungar 1,144 5.5 Decrease1.1 974 4.6 Steady0
National Democratic Party (NPD) 332 1.6 Decrease3.3
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) 286 1.4 Increase0.2
Free Voters (FW) 260 1.2 Decrease0.3
Havelberg-Osterburg
Party Candidate Constituency Regional
Votes % ±% Votes % ±%
'Christian Democratic Union (CDU)' Christ Schulenburg 8,656 40.1 Decrease1.7 7,562 33.2 Decrease1.7
The Left (Linke) Jenny Schulz 5,892 27.3 Decrease1.6 4,123 18.1 Decrease9.4
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 5,524 24.2 new
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Ralf Bergmann 3,535 16.4 Decrease1.5 2,468 10.8 Decrease9.9
Free Democratic Party (FDP) Klaus-Dieter Liebsch 2,184 10.1 Increase7.6 886 3.9 Increase1.2
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) David Elsholz 1,335 6.2 Increase1.0 869 3.8 Decrease1.8
Free Voters (FW) 302 1.3 Decrease0.3
National Democratic Party (NPD) 244 1.1 Decrease3.1
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) 196 0.9 Decrease0.4
Stendal
Party Candidate Constituency Regional
Votes % ±% Votes % ±%
'Christian Democratic Union (CDU)' Hardy Peter Güssau 6,640 32.4 Decrease4.5 6,723 30.8 Decrease3.1
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 5,459 25.0 new
The Left (Linke) Mario Blasche 5,446 26.6 Decrease0.8 4,123 18.1 Decrease9.4
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Juliane Kleemann 4,174 20.4 Decrease5.0 2,580 11.8 Decrease10.3
Free Democratic Party (FDP) Ralf Berlin 2,981 14.5 Increase10.7 886 3.9 Increase1.2
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) Dorothea Frederking 1268 6.2 Decrease0.3 941 4.3 Decrease1.8
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) 255 1.2 Decrease0.6
National Democratic Party (NPD) 229 1.0 Decrease4.1
Free Voters (FW) 225 1.0 Decrease0.1

Outcome

The CDU won 30% of the votes and remained the largest party, but faced a strong challenge from the AfD.[3][4] After the election, Haseloff stated: "The rise which AfD saw in the polls has the name of a city: it's Cologne," referring to the New Year's Eve sexual assaults in Germany.[5] He claimed that "as the Christian Democratic Union here in Saxony-Anhalt, we have done nothing wrong."[5]

According to observers, the only realistic possibility for a coalition government with a majority was one consisting of the CDU, SPD and the Greens, which held a two-seat majority.[6] Other potential majority coalitions were considered unlikely or politically impossible, such as CDU–Left or CDU–AfD. For a broad-based majority, the coalition would have needed to include both the CDU and The Left, which was infeasible.

Another possible option was a minority government "tolerated" by another party or parties which were themselves not part of the government. In this situation, these parties would abstain from the vote for Minister-President, allowing the minority government to be formed with a simple plurality, rather than the typical absolute majority. Such a situation had existed in Saxony-Anhalt between 1994 and 2002, with an SPD minority government supported by The Left. The most likely arrangement in 2016 would have been a minority government of the CDU and SPD with the tolerance of the Greens and/or The Left. Similarly, a CDU–Green coalition could have been tolerated by the SPD and/or The Left. An SPD–Left–Green coalition could be tolerated by the CDU, although this possibility was highly unlikely.[7]

Ultimately, the CDU, SPD, and Greens agreed to form a coalition government together, to the exclusion of The Left. This was dubbed the "Kenya coalition", a reference to the colours of the parties and those of the flag of Kenya. This was the first such coalition formed in Germany. On 25 April 2016, Haseloff was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on the second ballot, in which he won one vote more than the necessary majority.[2]

References

  1. ↑ "Sealed first "Kenya" coalition in Saxony-Anhalt: Government". Archy World News. Archived from the original on 11 August 2016. Retrieved 19 April 2016.
  2. 1 2 Haseloff erst im zweiten Anlauf wiedergewählt, Frankfurter Allgemeine, in German
  3. ↑ Janosch Delcker (March 13, 2016), Angela Merkel’s conservatives lose two major regional elections Politico Europe.
  4. ↑ Philip Oltermann (March 14, 2016), Germany 'won't change policy' after gains for anti-refugee AfD party The Guardian.
  5. 1 2 "Haseloff (CDU): "als christlich-demokratische Union hier in Sachsen-Anhalt nichts falsch gemacht"" [Haseloff (CDU): "As a Christian Democratic Union here in Saxony-Anhalt done nothing wrong"]. Phoenix (in German). Retrieved 14 March 2016.
  6. ↑ "Regierungsbildung Sachsen-Anhalt: Haseloff: "Wir wissen, worauf es ankommt"".
  7. ↑ "German state elections: Success for right-wing AfD, losses for Merkel's CDU". 14 March 2016.
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