"2–0 lead is the worst lead" is a cliché[1] used in sporting contests,[2][3] to describe the situation in which one team is leading by a score of 2–0, leading them to become complacent.[4] The phrase is most common in association football, where it is sometimes applied only to the scoreline at half-time. It is sometimes also encountered in other sports where 2–0 is a moderately large lead, such as ice hockey.

Concept

The underlying concept is that, a team which is leading 2–0 will be complacent[5] and have a 'false sense of security' in their lead.[6] If the trailing team then scores to make it 2–1, the leading team can panic and concede further, resulting in a draw, or even a win for the other team. In contrast, a team which is leading 1–0 will tend to concentrate and play with intensity to protect or extend their narrow lead, whilst teams leading by three or more goals have a sufficiently large buffer that comebacks are unlikely.

The cliché may be invoked by coaches to encourage their players to maintain effort levels after obtaining a two-goal lead.[7] It can also be used in broadcasting, such as by a commentator or studio pundit, to suggest that the final result is still in doubt, thereby maintaining audience interest in a game.

There is little evidence that 2–0 is the worst lead in practice. In association football, a team leading 2–0 at half-time only goes on to lose the game in about 2% of cases.[8] In ice hockey, statistics show that if a team builds a two-goal advantage, they go on to win the game in the majority of instances, and that a one-goal lead is far more dangerous.[9] As a result, the cliché is often used in full knowledge that 2–0 is not in fact the worst possible lead.[10][11]

Examples of usage

The cliché was popularized by Czech football coach and television commentator Josef Csaplár in the Czech football community. His use of the term suggested that a 2–0 half-time lead could only end in a defeat and the cliché is known in the Czech Republic as Csaplár's trap (Czech: Csaplárova past).[12][13]

In Serbia, the cliché is known for being used by manager and former player Milan Živadinović.[14]

The cliché was also used by Australian former player and TV broadcaster Johnny Warren.[15]

In Poland, the cliché 2-0 to niebezpieczny wynik (Polish: 2-0 is a dangerous result) has been popularized by coach Czesław Michniewicz since at least 2005. In 2022 media used this cliché in connection to a game that Poland national football team, managed by Michniewicz, failed to win despite leading 2-0 against Netherlands national football team.[16]

Television pundit and former England international footballer Gary Lineker questioned the cliché's veracity during a 2016 match between Bournemouth and Liverpool while the latter were 2–0 ahead.[17] On that occasion, Liverpool did surrender both a 2–0 and 3–1 lead to lose 4–3.[18]

During the final match of the FIFA World Cup 2022 held in Qatar, Argentina maintained a 2–0 lead up until 80 minutes of the game, after which Kylian Mbappé of the France national team scored 2 goals within 97 seconds, completely breaking the lead. This led to extensive citation of the cliché among football fans, some of whom blamed Argentina for botching their lead due to their complacency as the game almost reached its end. The Argentina national team would go on to win the World Cup.

References

  1. ↑ "Proof 2-0 is a most dangerous lead". ABC News. 22 May 2014. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  2. ↑ Popik, Barry. "The worst lead in hockey is a two-goal lead". Barrypopik.com. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  3. ↑ "4 Reasons Why a 2-0 Lead is Ice Hockey's Worst Lead". LinkedIn. 9 December 2016.
  4. ↑ "2:0 - TheNH most dangerous score in the game". Goalden. 10 June 2010. Archived from the original on 20 December 2016. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  5. ↑ M, Alex (22 June 2007). "Kicker Conspiracy: The most dangerous lead". Kicker Conspiracy. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  6. ↑ "2–0, the cliché goes, is the most dangerous scoreline". Montreal Impact. 9 December 2016.
  7. ↑ "The Most Dangerous Lead in Soccer: 2–0". Soccer Classroom. 27 June 2011. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  8. ↑ "OptaJoe on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  9. ↑ ""The Most Dangerous Lead in Hockey" – Fact or Myth?". PuckScene.com. 19 August 2011. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  10. ↑ Taylor, Mark (6 March 2016). "The Power of Goals.: "Martinez Blows Most Dangerous of Leads"!". The Power of Goals. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  11. ↑ "Debunking the myth of the 'dangerous two-nil lead'". The World Game. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  12. ↑ "Csaplár efekt se nepotvrdil, Francie volá národní tým!". O2 Sport (in Czech). 7 September 2015. Archived from the original on 20 December 2016. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  13. ↑ "Bednář a Lafata si překáželi. Plzeň skřípla Csaplárova past". Aktuálně.cz. 2 September 2013. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
  14. ↑ Mozzart Sport (4 March 2016). "Kako ono reče Živa – 2:0 je najopasniji rezultat" (in Serbian). Retrieved 15 July 2018.
  15. ↑ Mangan, Patrick (2010). Offsider - a Memoir: How a Scrawny Pommy Kid Learned to Love the Socceroos. Australia: Melbourne University Publishing. p. 207. ISBN 978-0522857214. At some stage in the previous twenty minutes, in the TV gantry not far from us, Johnny Warren had no doubt uttered one of his favourite truisms: that 2-0 is a dangerous lead. It breeds complacency, he liked to say. The Socceroos didn't need reminding - now.
  16. ↑ Przegląd Sportowy (11 June 2022). "Klątwa Czesława Michniewicza dopadła go w reprezentacji. "2:0 to niebezpieczny wynik"" (in Polish). Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  17. ↑ @GaryLineker (4 December 2016). "When did 2-0 up become a dangerous score? Hear it so often now. Would like to know the percentage of games lost from there? The suspect is not high" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  18. ↑ "Bournemouth 4-3 Liverpool". BBC Sport. 4 December 2016. Retrieved 9 December 2016.
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