2008 United States presidential election in Nevada
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 533,736 412,827
Percentage 55.15% 42.65%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Nevada was part of the 2008 United States presidential election, which took place on November 4, 2008, throughout all 50 states and D.C. Voters chose five representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican John McCain by 12.5 percentage points. Both candidates heavily campaigned in the state. Obama almost always led in polls, however, some argued that McCain, a nationally prominent Senator from neighboring Arizona, had a legitimate chance of pulling off an upset in Nevada. In that vein, most news organizations considered Obama to be the favorite in the state, while many still viewed it as a relative swing state.[1] In the previous four presidential elections, the margin of victory in Nevada had always been below 5 percentage points. George W. Bush carried the state twice in 2000 and 2004 while Bill Clinton narrowly won it in 1992 and in 1996. This was the first time since 1964 that a Democrat won an outright majority of the vote in Nevada.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time a Democratic candidate won Carson City, as well as the last time that a presidential candidate has carried the state by a double-digit margin.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[2] Likely R
Cook Political Report[3] Lean D (flip)
The Takeaway[4] Lean D (flip)
Electoral-vote.com[5] Lean D (flip)
Washington Post[6] Lean D (flip)
Politico[7] Lean D (flip)
RealClearPolitics[8] Lean D (flip)
FiveThirtyEight[6] Lean D (flip)
CQ Politics[9] Lean D (flip)
The New York Times[10] Lean D (flip)
CNN[11] Lean D (flip)
NPR[6] Lean D (flip)
MSNBC[6] Toss-up
Fox News[12] Toss-up
Associated Press[13] Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports[14] Toss-up

Polling

In the beginning of the general election, it was a dead heat. McCain did win several polls. However, since September 30, Obama swept every other poll taken in the state and tied one poll. The final 3 polls averaged 50% to 44% in favor of Obama.[15] On election day, Obama won the state with 55% and by a double-digit margin of victory, a much better performance than polls showed.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,980,771 in the state. Barack Obama raised $2,328,659.[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $9,622,022. McCain and his interest groups spent $6,184,427.[17] Each campaign visited the state 7 times.[18]

Analysis

Nevada is historically somewhat of a bellwether state, having voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1912 except in 1976 and 2016. In 2008, McCain of neighboring Arizona was leading most polls taken March until the end of September (around the time of the 2008 financial crisis), when Obama of Illinois started taking the lead in almost every poll conducted from the beginning of October on, some in double digits.[19] The subprime mortgage crisis hit Nevada hard, and McCain's statement that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" apparently hurt him in a state devastated by the economic meltdown.

Obama ultimately carried the Silver State by a 12.5-point margin, larger than most polls anticipated. His victory rested almost entirely on winning the state's three largest jurisdictions: Clark County, home to Las Vegas; Washoe County, which contains Reno; and the independent city of Carson City,[20] which combine for 88% of Nevada's total population. Hispanics also played a large role in Obama's landslide victory. According to exit polling, they composed 15% of voters in Nevada and broke for Obama by a three-to-one margin.[21] With their support, Obama carried Washoe County by a comfortable 12-point margin and a somewhat narrower one-point margin in Carson City. These two areas hadn't gone Democratic since Lyndon B. Johnson won them in 1964. Obama also won Clark County by double digits, the first time a Democrat did so since 1964. McCain ran up huge margins in most of the more rural counties, which have been solidly Republican ever since Richard Nixon's 1968 win.[22] However, it was not nearly enough to overcome his deficit in Clark, Washoe and Carson City. Indeed, Obama's 122,000-vote margin in Clark County would have been enough by itself to carry the state, and Nevada voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole for the first time since 1960 and second since 1944.[23]

At the same time, Democrats picked up a U.S. House seat in Nevada's 3rd Congressional District, which is based in Clark County and consists of most of the Las Vegas suburbs. Democratic State Senator Dina Titus defeated incumbent Republican Jon Porter by 5.14 points with several third parties receiving a small but significant proportion of the total statewide vote. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Nevada Assembly and picked up two seats in the Nevada Senate, giving the Democrats control of both chambers of the Nevada Legislature for the first time in decades.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time that Carson City voted for the Democratic candidate. This is the most recent election that Nevada trended more Democratic than the previous one.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Nevada
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 533,736 55.15% 5
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 412,827 42.65% 0
None of these Candidates None of these Candidates 6,267 0.65% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 6,150 0.64% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 4,263 0.44% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 3,194 0.33% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 1,411 0.15% 0
Totals 967,848 100.00% 5
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 49.7%

By county

County Barack Obama
Democratic		 John McCain
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total votes cast
#  % #  % #  % #  %
Carson City 11,623 49.08% 11,419 48.22% 638 2.70% 204 0.86% 23,680
Churchill 3,494 32.95% 6,832 64.42% 279 2.63% -3,338 -31.47% 10,605
Clark 380,765 58.47% 257,078 39.48% 13,329 2.05% 123,687 18.99% 651,172
Douglas 10,672 41.20% 14,648 56.55% 584 2.25% -3,976 -15.35% 25,904
Elko 4,541 28.35% 10,969 68.47% 509 3.18% -6,428 -40.12% 16,019
Esmeralda 104 23.69% 303 69.02% 32 7.29% -199 -45.33% 439
Eureka 144 19.33% 564 75.70% 37 4.97% -420 -56.37% 745
Humboldt 1,909 33.70% 3,586 63.31% 169 2.99% -1,677 -29.61% 5,664
Lander 577 27.45% 1,466 69.74% 59 2.81% -889 -42.29% 2,102
Lincoln 518 24.58% 1,498 71.10% 91 4.32% -980 -46.52% 2,107
Lyon 8,405 39.83% 12,154 57.59% 544 2.58% -3,749 -17.76% 21,103
Mineral 1,082 46.90% 1,131 49.02% 94 4.08% -49 -2.12% 2,307
Nye 7,226 41.31% 9,537 54.53% 728 4.16% -2,311 -13.22% 17,491
Pershing 673 36.66% 1,075 58.55% 88 4.79% -402 -21.89% 1,836
Storey 1,102 45.57% 1,247 51.57% 69 2.86% -145 -6.00% 2,418
Washoe 99,671 55.25% 76,880 42.61% 3,863 2.14% 22,791 12.64% 180,414
White Pine 1,230 32.01% 2,440 63.51% 172 4.48% -1,210 -31.50% 3,842
Totals533,73655.15%412,82742.65%21,2852.20%120,90912.50%967,848
County Flips:

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried 2 of the state's 3 congressional districts.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 34.25% 63.68% Shelley Berkley
2nd 48.79% 48.76% Dean Heller
3rd 42.59% 55.35% Jon Porter (110th Congress)
Dina Titus (111th Congress)

Electors

Technically the voters of Nevada cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Nevada is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[25]

  1. Maggie Carlton
  2. Tahis Castro
  3. Ruby Duncan
  4. Ron Hibble
  5. Theresa Navarro

See also

References

  1. ↑ Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions Archived April 22, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  2. ↑ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  3. ↑ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ↑ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ↑ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  6. 1 2 3 4 Based on Takeaway
  7. ↑ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  8. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  9. ↑ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  10. ↑ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  12. ↑ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  13. ↑ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  14. ↑ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  15. ↑ "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Retrieved December 14, 2022.
  16. ↑ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 19, 2009.
  17. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Nevada". Retrieved November 26, 2008.
  20. ↑ "CNN Election Center 2008 - Nevada Results". Retrieved November 26, 2008.
  21. ↑ Cost, Jay; Sean Trende (January 18, 2009). "Election Review, Part 3: The West". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved April 19, 2009.
  22. ↑ Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  23. ↑ Counting the Votes; Nevada
  24. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  25. ↑ Reno Gazette Journal
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