2010 Penrith state by-election
19 June 2010
  First party Second party Third party
 
Stuart Ayres.jpg
Candidate Stuart Ayres John Thain Susie Wright
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Popular vote 19,856 9,437 4,679
Percentage 51.50% 24.48% 12.14%
Swing Increase 18.95pp Decrease 24.48pp Increase 6.57pp
TPP 66.48% 33.52%
TPP swing Increase 25.73pp Decrease 25.73pp
Location of Penrith in New South Wales
MP before election

Karyn Paluzzano
Labor

 Elected MP

Stuart Ayres
Liberal

A by-election was held for the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Penrith on 19 June 2010.[1] The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting Labor member and former Parliamentary Secretary for Education and Training Karyn Paluzzano, who had lied to an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) inquiry over her actions, such as signing false staff payslips and rorting her electoral mail allowance.[2] Paluzzano resigned from Cabinet after she admitted lying to ICAC. Paluzzano resigned from Parliament on 7 May 2010, hours after being suspended from the Labor Party.

Penrith had been in Labor hands for all but one term since its creation in 1974. Labor held it on a majority of 9.1%—a margin that would be considered on the stronger side of fairly safe under normal circumstances (any seat with a two-party margin between 6-10% is considered fairly safe on paper). However, the by-election came at a bad time for the government. In addition to the scandal surrounding Paluzzano, Labor was only polling at 39% support, a marked drop from the 2007 election. While Premier Kristina Keneally had invested considerable time into rehabilitating Labor's image since ousting Nathan Rees in a caucus coup, it was not enough to improve her party's standing in the polls.

The by-election was won by Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres with a 25.7-point two-party swing. The size of this swing, at the time, was the biggest against a sitting NSW government on record; previously, the highest swing was the 23.1 per cent swing achieved by the Liberal Party in the 2008 Ryde by-election. Additionally, this result marked the first time that the Liberal Party achieved a primary vote majority in Penrith, with the Labor primary vote having halved from the last election.[3] Indeed, on paper it turned Penrith from a fairly safe Labor seat into a safe Liberal seat in one stroke.

The loss of Penrith presaged Labor's massive defeat at the 2011 state election nine months later.

Candidates

Candidates are listed in ballot paper order.

PartyCandidateNotes
  Labor Party John Thain
  Greens Suzie Wright
  Mick Saunders A member of the unregistered Australia First Party.
  Liberal Party Stuart Ayres Partner of Liberal Senator Marise Payne.[4]
  Outdoor Recreation Party David Leyonhjelm Contested Bennelong at the 2007 federal election for the Liberty and Democracy Party; former chair of the Shooters Party.
  Australian Democrats Jose Sanz
  Christian Democratic Party Andrew Green
  Independent Noel Selby

Results

Penrith state by-election, 2010[5]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Stuart Ayres 19,856 51.50 +18.95
Labor John Thain 9,437 24.48 −24.19
Greens Suzie Wright 4,679 12.14 +6.57
Christian Democrats Andrew Green 1,692 4.39 −1.81
Independent Noel Selby 1,047 2.72 +2.72
  Independent Australia First Mick Saunders 766 1.99 +1.99
Outdoor Recreation David Leyonhjelm 721 1.87 +1.87
Democrats Jose Sanz 358 0.93 +0.04
Total formal votes 38,556 96.78 −0.49
Informal votes 1,282 3.22 +0.49
Turnout 39,838 86.04 −5.14
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal Stuart Ayres 21,831 66.48 +25.73
Labor John Thain 11,009 33.52 −25.73
Liberal gain from Labor Swing+25.73

References

  1. ↑ "Date set for Penrith by-election". ABC. 10 May 2010. Retrieved 11 May 2010.
  2. ↑ "Liar Paluzzano resigns from parliament". The Daily Telegraph. 7 May 2010. Retrieved 8 May 2010.
  3. ↑ "Results: 2010 Penrith by-election - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  4. ↑ The Daily Telegraph
  5. ↑ "Check count and declaration votes - Penrith" (PDF). New South Wales Electoral Commission.
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