2012 United States presidential election in Michigan
November 6, 2012
Turnout63% Decrease [1]
 
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote 16 0
Popular vote 2,564,569 2,115,256
Percentage 54.04% 44.58%

The 2012 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Voters chose 16 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Michigan was won by Democrat Barack Obama with 54.04% of the vote to Romney's 44.58%, a victory margin of 9.46%.[2] It was the sixth presidential election in a row where Michigan voted in favor of the Democratic candidate, with Republicans last carrying the state in 1988. Obama's margin of victory was significantly decreased from 2008 when he carried the state by 16.44%, and he lost 26 counties that had voted for him four years prior. Many of those counties had gone Democratic for the first time in decades, such as Berrien County, which had not voted for a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. The state's Republican trend would continue, as Donald Trump would end up narrowly winning the state and flipping even more counties in 2016. Nevertheless, it would return to the Democratic column in the following cycle when it narrowly backed Joe Biden over Trump.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time Michigan voted more Democratic than the nation, as well as the last time that Bay County, Calhoun County, Eaton County, Gogebic County, Isabella County, Lake County, Macomb County, Manistee County, Monroe County, Shiawassee County, and Van Buren County voted for the Democratic candidate.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Democratic Party used a caucus system to determine the proportion of delegates awarded to Democratic candidates. The caucuses took place May 5; as the only Democratic candidate, President Obama won all 183 pledged delegates in the caucus. They, along with the other 20 unpledged delegates, voted for Obama at the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Republican primary

2012 Michigan Republican presidential primary
February 28, 2012 (2012-02-28)
 
Candidate Mitt Romney Rick Santorum
Home state Massachusetts Pennsylvania
Delegate count 16 14
Popular vote 409,522 377,372
Percentage 41.10% 37.87%
 
Candidate Ron Paul Newt Gingrich
Home state Texas Georgia
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 115,911 65,027
Percentage 11.63% 6.53%
Michigan results by county
  Mitt Romney
  Rick Santorum

The Republican primary took place on February 28, 2012,[3] the same day as the Arizona Republican primary. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won both of these elections.

This Michigan election used a semi-open primary system (which the state referred to as "closed") in which each voter made a public declaration at their election site and received the ballot for the appropriate party, rather than the fully open system used in the past.[4] The state had 7,286,556 registered voters as of February 15, and delegates were awarded proportionately.[5]

Michigan was given 59 delegates to the Republican (GOP) national convention, but that number was reduced to 30 as a penalty for bringing the election date forward before March 6 as the GOP rules set.[3] The candidate with the greatest number of votes in each of the 14 congressional districts will receive that district's two delegates. Two additional delegates for Michigan were announced by the media to be given proportionally before the election[3] but after the election the Michigan GOP announced there had been an error in the memo published and that the two delegates will be given to the winner, which sparked accusations of Mitt Romney rigging the results from Rick Santorum's team.[6]

Polling

Campaign

While Romney has close ties to Michigan, where he was born and grew up and his father was the Governor, Santorum, who once trailed Romney badly in the state, had a clear lead over him in mid February after Santorum won Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri caucuses and primary on February 7. And the competition became a statistical tie between these two candidates before the primary.[7]

Since Michigan allows primary voters to declare their affiliation at the time they vote, Santorum campaign paid for robo-calls inviting Democrats to cross over and vote for him.[8] Romney called this tactic "outrageous" and "disgusting" but Santorum defended himself as not doing anything wrong but getting people to vote in an open primary.[9]

Some Democrats also urged their supporters to vote for Santorum in the Republican primary, in hopes of forcing the Republican candidates to use more resources and help make it easier for Barack Obama to win the general election.[10] This is similar to Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos", where Limbaugh urged voters in the 2008 Democratic Presidential primaries to vote for Hillary Clinton, whom he saw as being a weaker candidate than Obama.[11] Michigan has a long history of such crossover voting; in 2000, strong Democratic crossover votes helped Senator John McCain win the Michigan Republican primary.[12] In 1972, Republican crossover votes propelled Governor George Wallace to victory in the Democratic primary.[13][14]

Results

Polls closed at 8 PM local time on election day.[15] While most of the state is in the Eastern time zone (UTC −5), four counties in the Upper Peninsula are on Central time (UTC −6), so the final closures came at 9 PM Eastern time. As of 2/28, results showed Romney winning 7 congressional districts and Santorum winning 7.

2012 Michigan Republican presidential primary[16]
Candidate Votes Percentage Projected delegate count
AP
[17]		 CNN
[18]		 GP
[19]
Mitt Romney 409,522 41.10% 16 16 16
Rick Santorum 377,372 37.87% 14 14 14
Ron Paul 115,911 11.63% 0 0 0
Newt Gingrich 65,027 6.53% 0 0 0
Rick Perry (withdrawn) 1,816 0.18% 0 0 0
Buddy Roemer (withdrawn) 1,784 0.18% 0 0 0
Michele Bachmann (withdrawn) 1,735 0.17% 0 0 0
Jon Huntsman (withdrawn) 1,674 0.17% 0 0 0
Herman Cain (withdrawn) 1,211 0.12% 0 0 0
Fred Karger 1,180 0.12% 0 0 0
Gary Johnson (withdrawn) 458 0.05% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 18,809 1.89% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 2 0 0
Total: 996,499 100.00% 30 30 30

At the Republican state convention in May, it was reported that of the 30 voting delegates for the national convention in Tampa, 6 were Paul supporters, and 24 were Romney supporters.[20][21][22][23] Paul organizers disputed these numbers, stating that they had actually taken 8 (instead of 6) of the voting delegates, plus several non-voting slots.[24]

Delegate allocation controversy

A controversy arose over the delegate allocation in Michigan, where 28 congressional district delegates and two at-large delegates were awarded. The Republican Party of Michigan rules stated that the two at-large delegates would be awarded proportionally, meaning that Santorum and Romney would get one delegate each for a 15–15 tie. But the following day the party's credentials committee allocated both at-large delegates to Romney, saying it had changed the rules a few weeks prior to award the delegates to the statewide winner but "in error" sent a memo to the candidates saying they would be awarded proportionately.[25] Santorum's campaign protested, saying the committee's six members were mostly Romney supporters,[26] and filed a protest with the Republican National Committee. Santorum's general counsel wrote in a letter to the RNC, "It is our understanding that several public supporters and Michigan surrogates of an opposing campaign voted in favor of the delegate allocation change which assisted their chosen candidate. This request is not about the allocation of a single delegate; it is about ensuring a transparent process, avoiding unscrupulous tactics and backroom deals by establishment figures and campaigns who have not received the result they hoped for at the ballot box."[27] Committee member and former state attorney general Mike Cox endorsed Romney, but said the delegates should have been awarded 15-15: "I have this crazy idea that you follow the rules. I'd love to give the at-large delegates to Mitt Romney, but our rules provide for strict apportionment."[26]

General election

Candidate ballot access

Write-in candidate access:

Results

2012 United States presidential election in Michigan[5]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 2,564,569 54.04% 16
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 2,115,256 44.58% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 21,897 0.46% 0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer 16,119 0.34% 0
Libertarian (Write-in) Gary Johnson Jim Gray 7,774 0.16% 0
Natural Law Rocky Anderson Luis J. Rodriguez 5,147 0.11% 0
Socialist (Write-in) Stewart Alexander Alex Mendoza 89 0.00% 0
Socialist Equality
(Write-in)		 Jerry White Phyllis Scherrer 68 0.00% 0
America's (Write-in) Tom Hoefling J.D. Ellis 42 0.00% 0
Totals 4,730,961 100.00% 16
Voter turnout (registered voters) [5] 63.46%

Results by county

County Barack Obama
Democratic		 Mitt Romney
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total votes cast
#  % #  % #  % #  %
Alcona 2,472 40.50% 3,571 58.50% 61 1.00% -1,099 -18.00% 6,104
Alger 2,212 47.90% 2,330 50.45% 76 1.65% -118 -2.55% 4,618
Allegan 20,806 39.42% 31,123 58.97% 846 1.61% -10,317 -19.55% 52,775
Alpena 6,549 46.48% 7,298 51.79% 244 1.73% -749 -5.31% 14,091
Antrim 5,107 38.70% 7,917 60.00% 171 1.30% -2,810 -21.30% 13,195
Arenac 3,669 46.79% 4,057 51.74% 115 1.47% -388 -4.95% 7,841
Baraga 1,574 45.10% 1,866 53.47% 50 1.43% -292 -8.37% 3,490
Barry 11,491 40.15% 16,655 58.20% 471 1.65% -5,164 -18.05% 28,617
Bay 27,877 52.02% 24,911 46.49% 798 1.49% 2,966 5.53% 53,586
Benzie 4,685 47.32% 5,075 51.26% 141 1.42% -390 -3.94% 9,901
Berrien 33,465 45.99% 38,209 52.51% 1,088 1.50% -4,744 -6.52% 72,762
Branch 6,913 40.32% 10,035 58.52% 199 1.16% -3,122 -18.20% 17,147
Calhoun 29,267 50.18% 28,333 48.58% 727 1.24% 934 1.60% 58,327
Cass 9,591 42.65% 12,659 56.29% 240 1.06% -3,068 -13.64% 22,490
Charlevoix 5,939 42.05% 8,000 56.64% 186 1.31% -2,061 -14.59% 14,125
Cheboygan 5,831 43.68% 7,286 54.58% 233 1.74% -1,455 -10.90% 13,350
Chippewa 7,100 45.34% 8,278 52.86% 282 1.80% -1,178 -7.52% 15,660
Clare 6,338 46.83% 6,988 51.63% 209 1.54% -650 -4.80% 13,535
Clinton 18,191 46.36% 20,650 52.63% 394 1.01% -2,459 -6.27% 39,235
Crawford 2,994 43.94% 3,744 54.95% 76 1.11% -750 -11.01% 6,814
Delta 8,330 45.95% 9,534 52.59% 266 1.46% -1,204 -6.64% 18,130
Dickinson 4,952 38.53% 7,688 59.82% 211 1.65% -2,736 -21.29% 12,851
Eaton 27,913 50.95% 26,197 47.82% 678 1.23% 1,716 3.13% 54,788
Emmet 7,225 40.67% 10,253 57.71% 287 1.62% -3,028 -17.04% 17,765
Genesee 128,978 63.30% 71,808 35.24% 2,956 1.46% 57,170 28.06% 203,742
Gladwin 5,760 45.78% 6,661 52.94% 162 1.28% -901 -7.16% 12,583
Gogebic 4,058 53.30% 3,444 45.24% 111 1.46% 614 8.06% 7,613
Grand Traverse 20,875 43.31% 26,534 55.05% 788 1.64% -5,659 -11.74% 48,197
Gratiot 7,610 47.46% 8,241 51.39% 184 1.15% -631 -3.93% 16,035
Hillsdale 7,106 37.20% 11,727 61.40% 267 1.40% -4,621 -24.20% 19,100
Houghton 6,801 44.27% 8,196 53.36% 364 2.37% -1,395 -9.09% 15,361
Huron 6,518 42.10% 8,806 56.87% 160 1.03% -2,288 -14.77% 15,484
Ingham 80,847 63.01% 45,306 35.31% 2,157 1.68% 35,541 27.70% 128,310
Ionia 11,018 42.61% 14,315 55.36% 523 2.03% -3,297 -12.75% 25,856
Iosco 6,242 46.63% 6,909 51.62% 234 1.75% -667 -4.99% 13,385
Iron 2,687 44.69% 3,224 53.63% 101 1.68% -537 -8.94% 6,012
Isabella 13,038 53.74% 10,800 44.52% 422 1.74% 2,238 9.22% 24,260
Jackson 32,301 46.35% 36,298 52.09% 1,086 1.56% -3,997 -5.74% 69,685
Kalamazoo 69,051 55.83% 52,662 42.58% 1,977 1.59% 16,389 13.25% 123,690
Kalkaska 3,272 39.43% 4,901 59.06% 126 1.51% -1,629 -19.63% 8,299
Kent 133,408 45.35% 155,925 53.00% 4,873 1.65% -22,517 -7.65% 294,206
Keweenaw 582 41.81% 774 55.60% 36 2.59% -192 -13.79% 1,392
Lake 2,752 51.83% 2,487 46.84% 71 1.33% 265 4.99% 5,310
Lapeer 18,796 43.60% 23,734 55.05% 585 1.35% -4,938 -11.45% 43,115
Leelanau 6,576 46.25% 7,483 52.63% 160 1.12% -907 -6.38% 14,219
Lenawee 21,776 48.47% 22,351 49.75% 801 1.78% -575 -1.28% 44,928
Livingston 37,216 37.73% 60,083 60.91% 1,341 1.36% -22,867 -23.18% 98,640
Luce 991 38.17% 1,580 60.86% 25 0.97% -589 -22.69% 2,596
Mackinac 2,652 43.35% 3,397 55.53% 68 1.12% -745 -12.18% 6,117
Macomb 208,016 51.30% 191,913 47.33% 5,586 1.37% 16,103 3.97% 405,515
Manistee 6,473 52.19% 5,737 46.26% 192 1.55% 736 5.93% 12,402
Marquette 18,115 56.00% 13,606 42.06% 625 1.94% 4,509 13.94% 32,346
Mason 6,856 46.75% 7,580 51.69% 229 1.56% -724 -4.94% 14,665
Mecosta 7,515 44.26% 9,176 54.04% 289 1.70% -1,661 -9.78% 16,980
Menominee 5,242 47.80% 5,564 50.73% 161 1.47% -322 -2.93% 10,967
Midland 17,450 41.57% 23,919 56.98% 610 1.45% -6,469 -15.41% 41,979
Missaukee 2,274 32.36% 4,665 66.39% 88 1.25% -2,391 -34.03% 7,027
Monroe 36,310 49.68% 35,593 48.69% 1,192 1.63% 717 0.99% 73,095
Montcalm 11,430 44.74% 13,621 53.32% 497 1.94% -2,191 -8.58% 25,548
Montmorency 2,049 40.57% 2,928 57.97% 74 1.46% -879 -17.40% 5,051
Muskegon 44,436 58.16% 30,884 40.43% 1,077 1.41% 13,552 17.73% 76,397
Newaygo 8,728 40.64% 12,457 58.00% 293 1.36% -3,729 -17.36% 21,478
Oakland 349,002 53.40% 296,514 45.37% 8,055 1.23% 52,488 8.03% 653,571
Oceana 5,063 44.22% 6,239 54.49% 148 1.29% -1,176 -10.27% 11,450
Ogemaw 4,791 46.09% 5,437 52.31% 166 1.60% -646 -6.22% 10,394
Ontonagon 1,586 44.81% 1,906 53.86% 47 1.33% -320 -9.05% 3,539
Osceola 3,981 38.73% 6,141 59.75% 156 1.52% -2,160 -21.02% 10,278
Oscoda 1,657 40.88% 2,308 56.95% 88 2.17% -651 -16.07% 4,053
Otsego 4,681 39.37% 7,011 58.96% 199 1.67% -2,330 -19.59% 11,891
Ottawa 42,737 32.19% 88,166 66.41% 1,854 1.40% -45,429 -34.22% 132,757
Presque Isle 3,192 44.97% 3,794 53.45% 112 1.58% -602 -8.48% 7,098
Roscommon 6,198 47.40% 6,701 51.24% 178 1.36% -503 -3.84% 13,077
Saginaw 54,381 55.33% 42,720 43.46% 1,191 1.21% 11,661 11.87% 98,292
St. Clair 33,983 45.81% 39,271 52.94% 927 1.25% -5,288 -7.13% 74,181
St. Joseph 10,112 43.13% 12,978 55.36% 355 1.51% -2,866 -12.23% 23,445
Sanilac 7,212 39.09% 10,963 59.42% 275 1.49% -3,751 -20.33% 18,450
Schoolcraft 1,865 45.92% 2,142 52.75% 54 1.33% -277 -6.83% 4,061
Shiawassee 17,197 51.06% 15,962 47.39% 520 1.55% 1,235 3.67% 33,679
Tuscola 11,425 43.76% 14,240 54.54% 445 1.70% -2,815 -10.78% 26,110
Van Buren 16,290 49.61% 16,141 49.15% 406 1.24% 149 0.46% 32,837
Washtenaw 120,890 67.04% 56,412 31.28% 2,965 1.68% 64,478 35.76% 180,337
Wayne 595,846 72.83% 213,814 26.13% 8,476 1.04% 382,032 46.70% 818,136
Wexford 6,184 41.51% 8,450 56.72% 264 1.77% -2,266 -15.21% 14,898
Totals2,564,56954.04%2,115,25644.58%65,4911.38%449,3139.46%4,745,316
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Results by congressional district

Despite losing the state, Mitt Romney won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[28]

District Obama Romney Representative
1st 45% 53% Dan Benishek
2nd 43% 56% Bill Huizenga
3rd 46% 53% Justin Amash
4th 46% 54% Dave Camp
5th 61% 38% Dan Kildee
6th 49% 50% Fred Upton
7th 48% 51% Tim Walberg
8th 48% 51% Mike Rogers
9th 57% 42% Sander Levin
10th 44% 55% Candice Miller
11th 47% 52% Kerry Bentivolio
12th 66% 33% John Dingell
13th 85% 14% John Conyers
14th 81% 18% Gary Peters

Analysis

All of the local polling firms had predicted a close election here, some even giving an advantage to native Michigander Romney over Obama; however, statistician Nate Silver pointed out several problems with the local pollsters' methodology and sampling errors, instead giving more credence to the national pollsters who posited a clear victory for Obama (by a mean of 7.3 points and a median of 7.0 over Romney).[29]

In the end, Silver and the National pollsters were correct: Obama defeated Romney by over 9 points in the November 2012 election. Obama dominated the population centers that had traditionally anchored Democratic strength in the state—Detroit, Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Flint—but he also retained two populous counties that had been Republican strongholds in the 1970s and 1980s, the Detroit-area suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb. Even in Kent County, which flipped back to the Republican column, Romney substantially underperformed what Bush had done in 2000 and 2004. While Romney did better in more rural areas, without better strength in some of the state's population centers, Romney was unable to flip the state.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Elections". www.michigan.gov.
  2. ↑ "2012 Presidential Election – Michigan". Politico. Retrieved November 23, 2012.
  3. 1 2 3 "Michigan Republican Delegation 2012". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 29, 2012.
  4. ↑ Questions and Answers: Michigan's Feb. 28, 2012 Presidential Primary (PDF), Michigan Secretary of State, February 21, 2012, retrieved March 2, 2012
  5. 1 2 3 "2012 Voter Registration Totals" (PDF). Michigan Secretary of State. February 15, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  6. ↑ "Michigan results provoke accusations, ire". CNN. March 1, 2012. Archived from the original on March 1, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  7. ↑ "After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Is Too Close to Call". FiveThirtyEight. February 28, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  8. ↑ "Santorum Campaign Invites Democratic Votes In Michigan Robo-Call". ABC News. February 27, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  9. ↑ "Romney blasts Santorum for 'dirty trick' calls to Michigan Dems encouraging vote in GOP primary". Fox News. February 28, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  10. ↑ Angela Wittrock (February 28, 2012). "Yes, Michigan Democrats are voting for Rick Santorum". MLive. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  11. ↑ Jon Bershad (February 28, 2012). "Rush Limbaugh Has "No Problem" With Rick Santorum Copying His Operation Chaos Approach". Mediaite. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  12. ↑ Camia, Catalina (February 27, 2012). "Crossover voting encouraged in Mich. GOP primary". On Politics. USA Today. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  13. ↑ Mitchell, Steve (February 23, 2012). "Michigan's quirky primaries". The Detroit News. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  14. ↑ Rosenthal, Jack (May 17, 1972). "Survey Ties Issues, Not Shooting, to Wallace Victory". The New York Times. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  15. ↑ "What hours are the polls open on Election Day?". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  16. ↑ "2012 Official Michigan Presidential Primary Election Results - President of the United States 4 Year Term (1) Position". Archived from the original on May 2, 2012. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
  17. ↑ "Michigan Primary – AP". USA Today.
  18. ↑ "Michigan Primary – CNN". CNN.
  19. ↑ "Michigan Republican Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com.
  20. ↑ Mich GOP gets behind Romney convention
  21. ↑ "Ron Paul supporters unhappy with results of Michigan Republican Party Convention". May 19, 2012.
  22. ↑ "Republicans say Michigan will be crucial state in 2012 presidential race". May 20, 2012.
  23. ↑ Anuzis, Saul [@sanuzis] (May 19, 2012). "Romney Dominates Michigan Convention winning 24 delegates to Paul's 6 delegates. MI GOP fired up to help elect President Romney!" (Tweet). Retrieved January 5, 2021 – via Twitter.
  24. ↑ Det News. Update
  25. ↑ "Mitt Romney gets Michigan's at-large delegates".
  26. 1 2 Reens, Nate (March 3, 2012). "Republican discord continues, national GOP to investigate Michigan party leaders?". mlive.
  27. ↑ "Rick Santorum files protest over Michigan delegates - latimes.com". Los Angeles Times. March 3, 2012. Archived from the original on March 9, 2012. Retrieved June 28, 2021.
  28. ↑ "2012 election results: Presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House races". November 6, 2012.
  29. ↑ Nate Silver (August 28, 2012). "Aug. 27: Michigan Isn't a Tossup". The New York Times. Retrieved October 15, 2013.
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