2014 MV67
Discovery[1]
Discovered byPan-STARRS
Discovery siteHaleakalā Obs.
Discovery date24 June 2014
Designations
2014 MV67
P10ciev
Orbital characteristics[2]
Epoch 2021-Jul-01 (JD 2459396.5)
Uncertainty parameter 5[2] · 3[1][lower-alpha 1]
Observation arc7.24 years[3]
Aphelion2.84 AU
Perihelion1.58 AU
2.21 AU
Eccentricity0.2839[1][lower-alpha 1]
3.28 yr (1201 d)
351°
0° 22m 53.76s
Inclination3.845°
146°
207°
Earth MOID0.58 AU (87 million km)
Jupiter MOID2.6 AU
TJupiter3.60[2]
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter
~540 m[3]
Mass2.2×1011 kg[3]
19.58[2][1]

    2014 MV67 (also written 2014 MV67) was a lost asteroid with an observation arc less than 1 day. It had an assumed orbital eccentricity[lower-alpha 1] and a very poorly constrained orbit.[1] Depending on the orbit, it could have been a potentially hazardous asteroid, roughly 540 meters (1,770 feet) in diameter, or it could turn out to be a Mars-crosser or even a main-belt asteroid as were the cases with 2004 BX159 and 2010 GZ60.[lower-alpha 2] It was recovered by Pan-STARRS in September 2021 and is now known to be a Mars-crossing asteroid.[1]

    Description

    Main belts asteroids can have perihelia (closest approach to the Sun) as low as 1.7 AU.[4] The 22 March 2022 impact scenario was 87,000 times lower than the background threat generated by unknown asteroids.[lower-alpha 3] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 15 April 2021 when JPL transitioned to planetary ephemeris DE441.

    It was discovered on 24 June 2014, when the asteroid was estimated to be 1.1 ± 0.84 AU (165 ± 126 million km) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 161 degrees.

    The 22 March 2018 and 3 April 2019 virtual impactors did not occur.[3] The uncertainty region of ±10 billion km wraps around the entire orbit so the asteroid could be anywhere on any of the numerous orbit fits. It could be near aphelion (in the asteroid belt) ~3 AU from the Sun.[lower-alpha 4] The asteroid was not expected to be near Earth anytime during 2019.[5]

    With an almost meaningless 1-day observation arc, the Sentry Risk Table showed an estimated 1 in 3 billion chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 22 March 2022,[3] which was 87,000 times lower than the background threat.[lower-alpha 3] The nominal JPL Horizons 22 March 2022 Earth distance is 2.2 AU (330,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ±3 billion km.[6] NEODyS also lists the nominal 22 March 2022 Earth distance as 2.2 AU (330,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi).[7] And again it is not expected to be near Earth anytime during 2022.[7]

    Virtual impactors (past and future)[3]
    Date Impact
    probability
    (1 in)    		 JPL Horizons[8]
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 NEODyS
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 MPC[9]
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 Find_Orb
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)    		 uncertainty[8]
    region
    (3-sigma)
    2018-03-221.9 billion2.4 AU (360 million km)2.5 AU (370 million km)3.8 AU (570 million km)2.3 AU (340 million km)±600 million km
    2019-04-032.1 billion1.2 AU (180 million km)1.2 AU (180 million km)[5]3.5 AU (520 million km)2.6 AU (390 million km)±600 million km
    2022-03-22removed2.2 AU (330 million km)[6]2.2 AU (330 million km)[7]3.5 AU (520 million km)[lower-alpha 5]2.5 AU (370 million km)[10]±3 billion km[6]
    2025-03-26removed2.8 AU (420 million km)2.8 AU (420 million km)3.4 AU (510 million km)2.4 AU (360 million km)±2 billion km

    See also

    Notes

    1. 1 2 3 The Minor Planet Center's uncertainty code (orbit note) "E" stands for "Eccentricity assumed", as per Publishable Notes for Orbits of Minor Planets
    2. ↑ With such short arcs uncertainties can not really be described with formal error bars. In this case non-NEO orbits are definitely possible, perhaps even more likely than NEO ones.
    3. 1 2 Palermo Scale for 2022 is −4.94 and 10^4.94 = 87096.
    4. ↑ Jupiter is 5 AU (750 million km) from the Sun. The asteroid's aphelion range (furthest distance from the Sun) is estimated to be 2.1±0.5 AU.
    5. ↑ Jupiter is 4 AU from Earth every 13 months when Jupiter comes to opposition (opposite the Sun in the sky with Earth between the two).

    References

    1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "2014 MV67 Orbit". IAU Minor Planet Center. Archived from the original on 28 March 2019. Retrieved 28 March 2019.
    2. 1 2 3 4 5 "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2014 MV67)" (last observation: 2014-06-25; arc: 1 day). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 19 April 2021.
    3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2014 MV67". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 28 January 2018. Retrieved 28 March 2019. (Wayback Machine 2014)
    4. ↑ "Orbit Classification: Main-belt Asteroid". JPL NASA. Archived from the original on 16 September 2008. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
    5. 1 2 "2014MV67 Ephemerides for 2019". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 28 March 2019. Retrieved 28 March 2019.
    6. 1 2 3 "Horizons Batch for 2022-03-22 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 10 April 2021. Retrieved 9 April 2021. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#8/Soln.date: 2019-Dec-18 generates RNG_3sigma = 5.39E9 for 2022-Mar-22.)
    7. 1 2 3 "2014MV67 Ephemerides for 2022". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 2 April 2021. Retrieved 2 March 2021.
    8. 1 2 Go to JPL Horizons. Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas".
      RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 2019-Dec-18 generates RNG_3sigma = 5.39E9 for 2022-Mar-22.)
    9. ↑ "MPC Ephemeris Service". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 8 April 2021.
    10. ↑ "Find_Orb for 2022-03-22". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 8 April 2021. Retrieved 8 April 2021.
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