A process of cabinet formation is taking place following the Dutch general election of 22 November 2023.

Background

The previous cabinet was a coalition of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and Christian Union (CU). After surviving multiple crises over the regulation of nitrogen emissions, the cabinet experienced a further crisis over asylum policy. In the last round of negotiations, the VVD proposed stricter measures which were unacceptable for CU, who broke off the negotiations. Prime minister Mark Rutte therefore offered the resignation of his cabinet on 7 July 2023. This was seen by some as a powerplay by the VVD to force elections around an issue that benefited them.[1][2] A few days later, Rutte announced that he would not continue as leader of VVD.[3]

Before the elections, GroenLinks (GL) and Labour Party (PvdA) decided to enter the elections together as GroenLinks–PvdA (GL-PvdA) with European Commissioner Frans Timmermans as party leader. The goal was to become the largest party and participate in a cabinet.[4] After much hesitation, Pieter Omtzigt, who split from CDA in 2021, formed a new party, New Social Contract (NSC).[5]

Campaign

A graphical break-down of the seats in the House of Representatives by party
Composition of the elected House:
  SP: 5
  PvdD: 3
  Denk: 3
  GL-PvdA: 25
  Volt: 2
  D66: 9
  CU: 3
  NSC: 20
  VVD: 24
  CDA: 5
  BBB: 7
  JA21: 1
  SGP: 3
  PVV: 37
  FvD: 3

The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) became the largest party in the Dutch provincial elections of March 2023, and therefore in the 2023 Dutch Senate election. The party maintained its lead in the polls until the fall of the cabinet, though subsequently lost this position, partly because the nitrogen crisis was rarely discussed during the campaign. The leading position in the polls then alternated between VVD, NSC and GL-PvdA. PVV party leader Geert Wilders' more constructive tone and a successful debate at SBS6 contributed to his party taking the lead in a Peil.nl poll in the last week. This stimulated strategic voting on both the left and the right to respectively prevent or force a right-wing cabinet, from which GL-PvdA and PVV particularly benefited.[6]

During the campaign, possible coalition collaborations were discussed. GL-PvdA, D66, CDA and smaller parties continued to exclude the PVV. With the arrival of Dilan Yeşilgöz as party leader, the VVD did not rule out governing with the PVV for the first time since 2010. At the end of the campaign she partly reversed this, saying that she did not want to be in a cabinet in which Wilders' party was the largest. During the campaign, Omtzigt remained vague about possible cooperation with the PVV. Towards the end indicated that he was not in favour, as he viewed some of the PVV's positions as contrary to the constitution.

Election results

The PVV became the largest party in the elections with 37 seats. The coalition parties of the incumbent cabinet fell from 78 to 41 seats. Despite GL-PvdA becoming the second largest party, the left and progressive block as a whole fell from 63 to 47 seats.[7]

The three largest right-wing[8] parties PVV, VVD and NSC got a majority of 81 seats in the House of Representatives. With only 14 seats in the Senate they were far removed from the 38 required for a majority. Supplemented with BBB, this combination resulted in 88 seats in the House and 30 in the Senate.

Scout Van Strien

Gom van Strien (PVV), 2014

On 24 November 2023, PVV Senator Gom van Strien was selected as scout, as proposed by Wilders.[9] DENK was the only party to oppose the appointment, because they viewed PVV as undermining the rule of law. Van Strien's task was to explore "which coalition options can count on support based on the election results". Two days after the appointment, it became public that Van Strien was suspected of fraud. On 27 November, before meeting any party leaders, he resigned as scout.[10]

Scout Plasterk

Ronald Plasterk (PvdA), 2015

On 28 November 2023, former PvdA-Minister and Telegraaf columnist Ronald Plasterk was appointed as scout as proposed by Wilders.[11] DENK again opposed the appointment as well as the Party for the Animals (PvdD). DENK also refused meeting with Plasterk.

Coalition preferences

Coalitions acceptable to voters. Based on a poll from EenVandaag (23 November 2023)[12]
Coalition  %
PVV + VVD + NSC + BBB 60
PVV + VVD + NSC 57
GL-PvdA + VVD + NSC + D66 26
GL-PvdA + NSC + D66 + PvdD + SP + CU 24

From 29 November until 1 December, Plasterk met with the party leaders. Wilders said he wanted to form a cabinet and proposed talks with VVD, NSC and BBB.[13] BBB leader Caroline van der Plas also preferred this combination "if Geert [Wilders] moves along a bit".[14] This combination was supported by FVD, SGP and JA21, who were open to supporting them in the Senate. VVD and NSC were more reluctant. Yeşilgöz announced directly before Van Strien was appointed that her party was not willing to join a cabinet because of its defeat, but would provide confidence and supply to a centre-right cabinet.[15] In doing so, VVD claimed the position of confidence and supply, which was also aspired by NSC. Most members and party prominents such as Halbe Zijlstra and Hans Hoogervorst were in favor of joining the government, but there were also party prominents such as Jozias van Aartsen, Frans Weisglas and Ed Nijpels who were against cooperation with the PVV.[16] Omtzigt said to Plasterk that he was not ready to negotiate with the PVV because of concerns around rule of law. He proposed that two informateur would explore which solutions parties wanted for problems.[17]

PvdD leader Esther Ouwehand wanted to hand the initiative to GL-PvdA and NSC and said that a coalition was possible "with many small parties in it, probably including ours". The other parties saw no role for themselves in this first phase. Timmermans called a cabinet with GL-PvdA and PVV a "no-go" and considered it "extremely unlikely" that there would be an opportunity for GL-PvdA to join a cabinet.[18]

After meeting the first meetings, Plasterk notified the House he would need another week. Between 4 and 7 December he met with pairs of party leaders from PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB. He met twice with Wilders and Omtzigt. After the first, they said that "some air had been cleared" between them.[19]

Advice

On 11 December 2023, Plasterk handed his report to the Speaker of the House of Representatives. In it he recommended appointing an informateur to investigate whether an agreement can be reached between the PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB "on a joint baseline for guaranteeing the Constitution, fundamental rights and the democratic rule of law". The informateur should then explore whether there is a realistic prospect that the parties can reach agreement on a number of issues, including migration, good governance, climate, the nitrogen crisis and social security.

Informateur Plasterk

On 13 December 2023 the House debated with the scout. In the debate, a motion was passed to appoint Plasterk informateur with the assignment he had proposed. He started talks with the parties the next day. The parties agreed to keep 'radio silence'. The party leaders were accompanied by Sophie Hermans and Eelco Heinen (VVD), Eddy van Hijum (NSC), Mona Keijzer and Henk Vermeer (BBB), and Fleur Agema (PVV).[20]

References

  1. ↑ Hoedeman, Jan; Keultjes, Hanneke (9 July 2023). "Als alle ministers zijn ingelicht over de val van het kabinet, deelt Rutte jolig schouderklopjes uit". Algemeen Dagblad (in Dutch). Retrieved 3 December 2023.
  2. ↑ "Hoe de VVD hoog spel speelde en de ChristenUnie niet meer tot compromissen in staat was". RTL Nieuws (in Dutch). 8 July 2023. Retrieved 3 December 2023.
  3. ↑ "Rutte stopt als partijleider VVD en kondigt vertrek aan uit politiek" [Rutte resigns as VVD party leader and announces departure from politics]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 10 July 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  4. ↑ "PvdA en GroenLinks met één lijst de verkiezingen in, leden stemmen massaal voor" [PvdA and GroenLinks enter the elections with one list, members vote en masse in favor]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 17 July 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  5. ↑ "Omtzigt doet mee aan verkiezingen met eigen partij: Nieuw Sociaal Contract" [Omtzigt participates in the elections with own party: New Social Contract]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 20 August 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  6. ↑ Kester, Jeroen; Lubbe, Rozemarijn (20 November 2023). "Ruime helft GroenLinks-PvdA-kiezers stemt strategisch op die partij: 'Risico op rechts kabinet kleiner'" [More than half of GroenLinks-PvdA voters strategically vote for that party: 'Risk of a right-wing cabinet is smaller']. EenVandaag (in Dutch). Retrieved 28 November 2023.
  7. ↑ "Verval bij links-progressieve partijen: 'Verkiezingsthema's geclaimd door PVV'". Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 25 November 2023. Retrieved 10 December 2023.
  8. ↑ Vandeputte, Samuel (16 November 2023). "Rechtse partijen stevenen af op grote overwinning". Elsevier Weekblad. Retrieved 3 December 2023.
  9. ↑ "PVV-senator Gom van Strien aangesteld als verkenner voor de kabinetsformatie" [PVV-senator appointed as scout for cabinet formation]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 24 November 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  10. ↑ "Verkenner Van Strien (PVV) stopt ermee" [Scout Van Strien (PVV) resigns]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 27 November 2023. Retrieved 27 November 2023.
  11. ↑ "Ronald Plasterk aangewezen als verkenner" [Ronald Plasterk designated as scout]. Tweede Kamer (in Dutch). 28 November 2023. Retrieved 28 November 2023.
  12. ↑ Cornelisse, Daphne; Fastenau, Jelle (23 November 2023). "Kiezers NSC, VVD en BBB vinden dat hun partij open moet staan voor kabinet met Geert Wilders, ook als hij premier wordt". EenVandaag. Retrieved 3 December 2023.
  13. ↑ "Wilders wil met vier partijen 'nieren proeven'" [Wilders wants to gauge the opinions of four parties]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting. 29 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.
  14. ↑ "Van der Plas ziet coalitie met PVV wel zitten" [Van der Plas is interested in a coalition with the PVV]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 23 November 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  15. ↑ "Fractievoorzitter Yesilgöz: VVD niet in kabinet, mogelijk wel gedoogsteun" [Party leader Yesilgöz: VVD not in cabinet, possibly with confidence and supply]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 24 November 2023. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  16. ↑ Brandsma, Leon (10 December 2023). "Chagrijn in verkenning om gedoogdclaim VVD" [Chagrin in exploration because of VVD confidence and supply claim]. de Telegraaf (in Dutch). Retrieved 6 December 2023.
  17. ↑ "NSC-leider Pieter Omtzigt wil eerst praten over oplossen van problemen" [NSC-leader Pieter Omtzigt wants to talk about solving problems first]. Nederlandse Omroep Stichting (in Dutch). 29 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.
  18. ↑ Van Erven, Ronald (29 November 2023). "Timmermans: GroenLinks-PvdA past bescheidenheid, samenwerken met PVV uitgesloten" [Timmermans: GroenLinks-PvdA requires modesty, cooperation with PVV is excluded]. NRC (in Dutch).
  19. ↑ "Omtzigt en Wilders na gesprek: lucht geklaard, nieuw gesprek nodig" [Omtzigt and Wilders after conversation: cleared the air, new conversation necessary]. De Telegraaf (in Dutch). 6 December 2023. Retrieved 10 December 2023.
  20. ↑ "Deze door de wol geverfde secondanten schuiven aan bij informateur Plasterk: 'Elkaar eerst diep in ogen kijken'".
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