Football Outsiders
Available inEnglish
Created byAaron Schatz
URLwww.footballoutsiders.com
LaunchedAugust 2003 (2003-08)

Football Outsiders (FO) was a website started in July 2003 which focused on advanced statistical analysis of the National Football League (NFL). The site was run by a staff of regular writers, who produced a series of weekly columns using both the site's in-house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games.

In 2005 and 2006, the site partnered with FOXSports.com to cross-publish many of the Outsiders' regular features, including power rankings based on a "weighted" version of the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) statistic. In 2007, Football Outsiders content appeared on FOXSports.com (in a reduced capacity) along with AOL Sports and ESPN.com. Since 2008, the site has partnered exclusively with ESPN and provides mostly ESPN Insider content. In 2009, Football Outsiders began analyzing college football using similar statistical principles.

As of 2023, after financial mismanagement, the site seems to have been abandoned by its owners. As of September 1, 2023, the website was no longer accessible. DVOA statistics have been moved to FTN Fantasy, which is owned by FTN Network. Aaron Schatz joined FTN Network as Chief Analytics Officer on August 29, 2023.[1]

History

Football Outsiders was launched in August 2003 by Aaron Schatz, with two regular columns, one of which used an early version of the proprietary DVOA statistic. The original purpose of the site was to disprove a statement by Boston Globe reporter Ron Borges that the 2002 New England Patriots failed to make the postseason because they could not establish the run. Over the course of time, the site added more writers, and hosted Gregg Easterbrook for part of 2003.

Between 2004 and 2005, the site introduced new statistics such as Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR, later Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, DYAR) and Adjusted Line Yards (ALY). In 2005, the site began to cross-publish many of its columns on FOXsports.com. In 2005, Football Outsiders also took over publication of Pro Football Prospectus, a book giving a preview of the upcoming NFL season. In 2009, the annual was renamed Football Outsiders Almanac.[2]

Currently, the site has incorporated the 1981–2022 NFL seasons into their statistics.

Key Metrics

Football Outsiders has devised a series of proprietary formulas to calculate different advanced metrics.

DVOA

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA "breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. ... Football has one objective -- to get to the end zone -- and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player's value or a team's performance."[3]

There is a separate DVOA measurement for special teams, which "compare[s] each kick or punt to the league average for based on the point value of field position at the position of each kick, catch, and return."[4]

DYAR

DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) calculates each player's cumulative value above or below a "replacement-level" alternative. DYAR differs from DVOA in calculating a player's total value through the course of a year, and not on a play-for-play rate. States Football Outsiders, "DVOA, by virtue of being a percentage or rate statistic, doesn’t take into account the cumulative value of having a player producing at a league-median level over the course of an above-average number of plays. By definition, a median level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy work load is very valuable indeed."[5]

Adjusted Line Yards

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) "differentiate[s] between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line." ALY attempts to "separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effect of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the effect of the defense. ... Yardage ends up falling into roughly the following combinations: Losses, 0-4 yards, 5-10 yards, and 11+ yards. In general, the offensive line is 20% more responsible for lost yardage than it is for yardage gained up to four yards, but 50% less responsible for yardage gained from 5-10 yards, and not responsible for yardage past that. Thus, the creation of Adjusted Line Yards."[6]

Drive Stats

Drive Stats calculate a team's average success rate on a possession-by-possession basis: "[E]ach team's total number of drives as well as average yards per drive, points per drive, touchdowns per drive, punts per drive, and turnovers per drive, interceptions per drive, and fumbles lost per drive. LOS/Drive represents average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive from the offensive point of view. Drive stats are given for offense and defense, with NET representing simply offense minus defense."[7]

Pythagorean projection

Another metric Football Outsiders uses is Pythagorean projection, which estimates wins in a season by a formula originally conceived by baseball analyst Bill James, that takes the square of team points, and divides it by the sum of the squares of team points scored and allowed.

The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac[8] states, "From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Super Bowl champions that led the league in Pythagorean wins but not actual wins include the 2004 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams and 1997 Broncos."

Although Football Outsiders Almanac acknowledges that the formula had been less-successful in picking Super Bowl participants from 2005-2008, it reasserted itself in 2009 and 2010.

Furthermore, "[t]he Pythagorean projection is also still a valuable predictor of year-to-year improvement. Teams that win a minimum of one full game more than their Pythagorean projection tend to regress the following year; teams that win a minimum of one full game less than their Pythagorean projection tend to improve the following year, particularly if they were at or above .500 despite their underachieving. For example, the 2008 New Orleans Saints went 8-8 despite 9.5 Pythagorean wins, hinting at the improvement that came with the next year's championship season."

DVOA results

Each year, Football Outsiders calculates the best and worst teams, per play, with the DVOA metric (see above). Below is a list of the highest- and lowest-rated teams in the league in each year from 1985-2019.

= Team Won Super Bowl
= Team Awarded First Overall Draft Pick in following year's draft
SeasonBest DVOA ratingDVOAWorst DVOA ratingDVOANotes
2022Buffalo Bills35.1%Indianapolis Colts-32.8%Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII, Bears got #1 pick.[9]
2021Dallas Cowboys30.9%Jacksonville Jaguars-31.3%Rams won Super Bowl LVI.[10]
2020New Orleans Saints33.3%New York Jets-30.5%Buccaneers won Super Bowl LV, Jaguars got #1 pick.[11]
2019Baltimore Ravens41.2%Miami Dolphins-38.8%Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV, Bengals got #1 pick.[12]
2018Kansas City Chiefs33.2%Arizona Cardinals-38.4%Patriots won Super Bowl LIII.[13]
2017New Orleans Saints35.0%Cleveland Browns-28.7%Eagles won Super Bowl LII. Browns complete second 0-16 season in NFL history.[14]
2016New England Patriots25.1%New York Jets-34.5%Cleveland Browns got #1 pick.[15]
2015Seattle Seahawks38.6%San Francisco 49ers-28.3%Denver Broncos won Super Bowl, Tennessee Titans got #1 pick.[16]
2014Seattle Seahawks31.7%Jacksonville Jaguars-31.3%New England Patriots won Super Bowl, Tampa Bay Buccaneers got #1 pick.[17]
2013Seattle Seahawks40.0%Jacksonville Jaguars-40.2%Houston Texans received #1 overall pick in 2014 draft.[18]
2012Seattle Seahawks38.4%Kansas City Chiefs-43.5%Baltimore Ravens won Super Bowl.[19]
2011New Orleans Saints28.7%Indianapolis Colts-34.5%New York Giants won Super Bowl.[20]
2010New England Patriots44.3%Carolina Panthers-38.2%Green Bay won Super Bowl[21]
2009New England Patriots29.1%Detroit Lions-48.6%New Orleans Saints won Super Bowl, St. Louis Rams got #1 overall pick[22]
2008Philadelphia Eagles30.6%Detroit Lions-45.2%Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl [23]
2007New England Patriots53.4%San Francisco 49ers-35.4%New York Giants won Super Bowl, Miami Dolphins got #1 pick[24]
2006San Diego Chargers28.5%Oakland Raiders-34.5%Indianapolis Colts won Super Bowl [25]
2005Indianapolis Colts33.4%San Francisco 49ers-57.7%Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl, Houston Texans got #1 pick[26]
2004Pittsburgh Steelers37.6%San Francisco 49ers-43.1%New England Patriots won Super Bowl[27]
2003Kansas City Chiefs30.5%Arizona Cardinals-43.1%New England Patriots won Super Bowl, San Diego Chargers got #1 pick[28]
2002Tampa Bay Buccaneers31.3%Houston Texans-41.4%Cincinnati Bengals got #1 overall pick[29]
2001St. Louis Rams31.2%Carolina Panthers-24.7%N.E. Patriots won Super Bowl, Panthers had #2 pick (to expansion Houston)[30]
2000Tennessee Titans33.5%Cleveland Browns-41.5%Baltimore Ravens won Super Bowl, San Diego Chargers got #1 pick[31]
1999St. Louis Rams38.7%Cleveland Browns-41.3%[32]
1998Denver Broncos32.2%Philadelphia Eagles-37.0%Philadelphia had worst record, got #2 pick after expansion Cleveland Browns[33]
1997Denver Broncos29.9%San Diego Chargers-31.2% Indianapolis Colts got #1 pick [34]
1996Green Bay Packers43.0%New York Jets-33.6%[35]
1995San Francisco 49ers40.0%Arizona Cardinals-30.3%Dallas Cowboys won Super Bowl, New York Jets got #1 pick[36]
1994Dallas Cowboys32.4%Houston Oilers-29.9%San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl, Oilers picked #3 behind expansion Carolina/Jacksonville.[36]
1993Dallas Cowboys24.7%Indianapolis Colts-38.9%Cincinnati Bengals got #1 overall pick[37]
1992Dallas Cowboys35.5%New England Patriots-41.5%[38]
1991Washington Redskins56.5%Indianapolis Colts-49.2%[39]
1990New York Giants30.6%New England Patriots-40.8%[40]
1989San Francisco 49ers37.2%Dallas Cowboys-37.5%Dallas had the league's worst record, but forfeited their first round pick [41]
1988 Minnesota Vikings 27.4% Kansas City Chiefs -25.9% San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl, Dallas Cowboys got #1 overall pick[42]
1987 San Francisco 49ers 47.2% Atlanta Falcons -43.2% Washington Redskins won Super Bowl[43]
1986 Chicago Bears 30.2% Tampa Bay Buccaneers -44.9% New York Giants won Super Bowl[44]
1985 Chicago Bears 52.9% Buffalo Bills -37.5% Tampa Bay Buccaneers got #1 overall pick[45]
1984 San Francisco 49ers 33.5% Minnesota Vikings -41.2% Buffalo Bills got #1 overall pick[46]
1983 Washington Redskins 37.2% Houston Oilers -31.6% Los Angeles Raiders won Super Bowl, Tampa Bay Buccaneers got #1 overall pick[47]
1982 New York Jets 34.1% Houston Oilers -47.6% Washington Redskins won Super Bowl, Baltimore Colts got #1 overall pick[48]
1981 Philadelphia Eagles 25.8% Baltimore Colts -38.9% San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl, New England Patriots got #1 overall pick[49]

Pro Football Prospectus and Football Outsiders Almanac

From 2005 through 2008, Football Outsiders published the Pro Football Prospectus book each year before the football season began. It included an essay for each team analyzing the previous season, evaluating off-season moves, and projecting future performance.

In 2009, Football Outsiders did not publish a Pro Football Prospectus volume, but instead produced the self-published Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. The reason for this is explained in the book:

So why the name change, and why aren’t we in bookstores?

For those who don’t know, our first four books were published through an agreement with Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, the company that owns Baseball Prospectus (as well as the expansion projects Basketball Prospectus and Puck Prospectus). It was PEV that had the publishing contract (first with Workman, then Plume). This year, for various reasons, Plume decided they no longer wanted to publish books related to other sports besides baseball. Other publishers were interested in doing our book, but by the time Plume made their decision, it was too late to get on the publication schedule for 2009.[50]

Management

Editor-in-Chief: Aaron Schatz
Senior Editor: Vince Verhei
Senior Writer: Mike Tanier

Books

  • Pro Football Forecast 2004[51] (ISBN 1574886584)
  • Pro Football Prospectus 2005 (ISBN 0761140190)
  • Pro Football Prospectus 2006 (ISBN 0761142177)
  • Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (ISBN 0452288479)
  • Pro Football Prospectus 2008 (ISBN 0452289734)
  • Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 (ISBN 1448648459)
  • Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 (ISBN 1453671188)
  • Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 (ISBN 978-1-4662-4613-3)
  • Football Outsiders Almanac 2012 (ISBN 978-1-4782-0152-6)

General references

See also

Citations

  1. ↑ Schatz, Aaron (August 29, 2023). "Announcement". Twitter.
  2. ↑ (ISBN 1448648459)
  3. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA explained
  4. ↑ Football Outsider: Special Teams
  5. ↑ Football Outsiders: DYAR explained
  6. ↑ Football Outsiders: Adjusted Line Yards explained
  7. ↑ Football Outsiders: Drive Stats
  8. ↑ Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 (ISBN 978-1-4662-4613-3), p.xviii
  9. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2022
  10. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2021
  11. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2020
  12. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2019
  13. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2018
  14. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2017
  15. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2016
  16. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2015
  17. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2014
  18. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2013
  19. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2012
  20. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2011
  21. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2010
  22. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2009
  23. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2008
  24. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2007
  25. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2006
  26. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2005
  27. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2004
  28. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2003
  29. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2002
  30. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2001
  31. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 2000
  32. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1999
  33. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1998
  34. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1997
  35. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1996
  36. 1 2 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1994
  37. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1993
  38. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1992
  39. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1991
  40. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1990
  41. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1989
  42. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1988
  43. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1987
  44. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1986
  45. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1985
  46. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1984
  47. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1983
  48. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1982
  49. ↑ Football Outsiders: DVOA 1981
  50. ↑ Allen, Bruce (July 29, 2009). "Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 Interview With Aaron Schatz". Boston Sports Media Watch.
  51. ↑ Much of this volume was written by Football Outsiders (FO) authors, but the book itself is not officially a FO publication. See "Pro Football Prospectus 2004: The Lost Year".
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