Andrea Saltelli
Born (1953-08-26) August 26, 1953
Rome, Italy
NationalityItalian
Alma materSapienza University of Rome
Organization(s)Pompeu Fabra University-Barcelona School of Management, University of Bergen (Norway) and National Research Council (Italy)

Andrea Saltelli is an Italian scholar studying quantification with statistical and sociological tools, extending the theory of sensitivity analysis to sensitivity auditing.

Bio

Saltelli received his degrees in inorganic chemistry from the Sapienza University of Rome in summer 1976. He then worked at the Italian Nuclear Authority ENEA and for one year at the Argonne National Laboratory in the United States. Till 2015 he worked at the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, leading for fifteen years a team devoted to econometrics and applied statistics. Between 2016 and 2020 he was associate professor at the Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities (Senter for vitenskapsteori) at the University of Bergen.

Works

Some authors [1][2][3] credit Andrea Saltelli for having given impulse to the field of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, also via the creation of the SAMO conference series started in 1995,[4] and two handbooks,[5][6] one of which translated in Chinese.[7] In these and other works he introduced the concepts of global sensitivity analysis,[8] and total sensitivity indices,[9] helping to disseminate[10] the variance-based sensitivity analysis work of the Russian mathematician Ilya M. Sobol, with whom he collaborated.[11] His formulae for computing efficiently the variance based sensitivity indices[8] have been considered useful by practitioners.[12][13] He has worked on climate change,[14] ranking of higher education,[15] the ecological footprint,[16] and composite indicators.[17][18] More recent works are on the reproducibility of scientific results,[19][20] principles for mathematical modelling[21][22] and on ethics of quantification.[23][24]

Andrea Saltelli has collaborated with Silvio Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz and Jeroen van der Sluijs on theories and applications of post-normal science.[25] He also worked with the Belgian sociologist Paul-Marie Boulanger on the application of the theories on Niklas Luhmann to the reproducibility crisis in scientific research[26] and to the COVID-19 pandemic,[27] with the Norwegian economist Erik Reinert on themes related to quantification in economics,[28][29] and with Daniel Sarewitz on the post-truth debate.[30]

Thought

In an interview for ‘The Corbet Report’,[31] Andrea Saltelli noted his early fascination with the production of quantified evidence via statistical or mathematical modelling and his puzzlement to see how easy it was to produce evidence of a poor quality, or altogether to cheat or deceive with numbers. The attention to responsible production of numbers led him to his involvement into issues of epistemology, philosophy of science, and science for policy.[31] This motivated him to extend the theory of sensitivity analysis to sensitivity auditing, which aims to provide an assessment of the entire knowledge- and model-generating process, inclusive of explicit or implicit assumptions, interests, stakes and motivations of the developers.[32] According to existing guidelines[33] including from the European Commission,[34] sensitivity auditing becomes relevant when the results from a modelling exercise feed into a political decision process.

Books

  • A. Saltelli, K. Chan, and M. Scott, Sensitivity analysis. Wiley, 2000.[35]
  • A. Saltelli, S. Tarantola, F. Campolongo, and M. Ratto, Sensitivity Analysis in Practice. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2004.[36]
  • A. Saltelli et al., Global sensitivity analysis : the primer. John Wiley, 2008.[37]
  • Benessia, A., Funtowicz, S., Giampietro, M., Guimarães Pereira, A., Ravetz, J., Saltelli, A., Strand, R., van der Sluijs, J., 2016, The Rightful Place of Science: Science on the Verge, Published by The Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at Arizona State University.[38]
  • Saltelli, Andrea, and Monica Di Fiore, eds. 2023. The Politics of Modelling. Numbers between Science and Policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.[39]

References

  1. ↑ Norton, J., 2015. An introduction to sensitivity assessment of simulation models. Environmental Modelling & Software 69, 166–174.
  2. ↑ Borgonovo, E., Plischke, E., 2016. Sensitivity analysis: A review of recent advances. European Journal of Operational Research 248, 869–887.
  3. ↑ Da Veiga, Sébastien, Fabrice Gamboa, Bertrand Iooss, and Clémentine Prieur. 2021. Basics and Trends in Sensitivity Analysis. SIAM.
  4. ↑ [Groupement de Recherche MASCOT-NUM], “SAMO Meetings,” 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.gdr-mascotnum.fr/samo.html. [Accessed: 22-Nov-2020].
  5. ↑ Saltelli A., Tarantola S., Campolongo F. and Ratto M. (2004) Sensitivity Analysis in practice. A guide to assessing scientific models, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  6. ↑ Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., Andres, T., Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Gatelli, D. Saisana, M., Tarantola, S., 2008, Global Sensitivity Analysis. The Primer, John Wiley & Sons publishers.
  7. ↑ Sensitivity Analysis in practice. A guide to assessing scientific models, translated into Mandarin by Qiongli Wu, of the Wuhan Institute of Physics and Mathematics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CHINA.
  8. 1 2 Saltelli A., 2002, Making best use of model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices, Computer Physics Communications, 145, 280-297.
  9. ↑ Homma T., and Saltelli A., 1996, Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of model output, 1996, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 52 No. 1 1-17.
  10. ↑ Toshimitsu HOMMA and Andrea SALTELLI, 2005, Use of Sobol's Quasirandom Sequence Generator for Integration of Modified Uncertainty Importance Measure, Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 32:11, 1164-1173.
  11. ↑ A. Saltelli, I.M. Sobol’, About the use of rank transformation in sensitivity analysis of model output, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 50 (1995) 225–239.
  12. ↑ Owen, Art B. 2013. “Variance Components and Generalized Sobol’ Indices.” SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification 1 (1): 19–41.
  13. ↑ Owen, Art B., Josef Dick, and Su Chen. 2014. “Higher Order Sobol’ Indices.” Information and Inference: A Journal of the IMA 3 (1): 59–81.
  14. ↑ Saltelli, A., D’Hombres, B., Sensitivity analysis didn't help. A practitioner's critique of the Stern review, 2010, Global Environmental Change, 20, 298-302.
  15. ↑ Paruolo, P., Saisana, A., Saltelli, A., 2013, Ratings and rankings: Voodoo or Science? Journal Royal Statistical Society A, 176 (3), 609–634.
  16. ↑ Giampietro, M., and Saltelli, A., 2014, Footprints to nowhere, Ecological Indicators, 46, 610–621.
  17. ↑ OECD-JRC Handbook On Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology And User Guide, OECD Statistics Working Paper JT00188147, STD/DOC(2005)3.
  18. ↑ Kuc-Czarnecka, M., Lo Piano, S. and Saltelli, A. (2020) ‘Quantitative storytelling in the making of a composite indicator’, Social Indicators Research, 149(3), 775-802, 2020.
  19. ↑ Philip B. Stark and Andrea Saltelli, Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis, SIGNIFICANCE, 05 July 2018.
  20. ↑ Andrea Saltelli, 2018, Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground, FUTURES, vol. 104, p. 85-90, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.07.006.
  21. ↑ Andrea Saltelli, 2019, A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling, Nature Communications, 10, Article number: 3870, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11865-8.
  22. ↑ A. Saltelli, G. Bammer, I. Bruno, E. Charters, M. Di Fiore, E. Didier, W. Nelson Espeland, J. Kay, S. Lo Piano, D. Mayo, R.J. Pielke, T. Portaluri, T.M. Porter, A. Puy, I. Rafols, J.R. Ravetz, E. Reinert, D. Sarewitz, P.B. Stark, A. Stirling, P. van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. Vineis, Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto, Nature 582 (2020) 482–484.
  23. ↑ Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore, 2020, From sociology of quantification to ethics of quantification, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-020-00557-0.
  24. ↑ Saltelli, Andrea, A. Andreoni, Wolfgang Drechsler, J. Ghosh, Rainer Kattel, I. H. Kvangraven, Ismael Rafols, Erik S. Reinert, A. Stirling, and T. Xu. 2021. “Why Ethics of Quantification Is Needed Now.” UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Working Paper Series. London. https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/publications/2021/jan/why-ethics-quantification-needed-now.
  25. ↑ Andrea Saltelli, Lorenzo Benini, Silvio Funtowicz, Mario Giampietro, Matthias Kaiser, Erik Reinert, Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, 2020, The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability, Environmental Science and Policy, Volume 106, Pages 87-98.
  26. ↑ A. Saltelli and P.-M. Boulanger, “Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex?,” Futures, vol. 115, p. 102491, Nov. 2019.
  27. ↑ P.-M. Boulanger and A. Saltelli, “Pandemic Luhmann,” SSRN Electron. J., May 2020.
  28. ↑ Erik Reinert, Sylvi Endresen, Ioan Ianos, and Andrea Saltelli, 2016, “Epilogue: The Future of Economic Development between Utopias and Dystopias”, in Handbook of alternative theories of economic development, Edited by Erik S. Reinert, Jayati Ghosh, and Rainer Kattel, Elgar Publishing, see here for the working paper version.
  29. ↑ Reinert E.S., Di Fiore M., Saltelli A., Ravetz J.R. (2021). Altered States: Cartesian and Ricardian dreams. UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Working Paper Series (IIPP WP 2021/07). Available at: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/wp2021-07.
  30. ↑ Andrea Saltelli and Daniel Sarewitz, 2022, Reformation in the Church of Science. How the truth monopoly was broken up. The New Atlantis, issue Spring 2022.
  31. 1 2 J. Corbett, “Interview 1424 – Andrea Saltelli on The Crisis of Science,” The Corbett Report, 2019.
  32. ↑ Saltelli, A., van der Sluijs, J., Guimarães Pereira, Â., 2013, Funtowiz, S.O., What do I make of your Latinorum? Sensitivity auditing of mathematical modelling, International Journal Foresight and Innovation Policy, 9 (2/3/4), 213–234.
  33. ↑ Science Advice for Policy by European Academies, Making sense of science for policy under conditions of complexity and uncertainty, Berlin, 2019.
  34. ↑ European Commission, November 2021. Better Regulation: Guidelines and Toolbox
  35. ↑ "Sensitivity Analysis | Wiley". Wiley.com.
  36. ↑ "Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models | Wiley". Wiley.com.
  37. ↑ "Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer | Wiley". Wiley.com.
  38. ↑ "Science on the Verge; CSPO". CSPO.org/publication/.
  39. ↑ "The Politics of Modelling; Wiley". Wiley.com.

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