Population pyramid of Russia from 2020 to projections up to 2100

Since the beginning of the 1990s, social and demographic changes in the Russian Federation, stemming from under the Soviet Union, led the country towards an aging population, often described in media as a "demographic crisis".[1][2][3]

History

Total population of Russia 1950–2010

In the economic sphere

The demographic crisis has a positive economic effect on the second stage of the changing age structure of the population (the fraction of the average working-age generation is maximal at a relatively small proportion of younger and older) and a negative economic effect on the third stage of the changing age structure of the population (when the proportion of the older generation is maximal at a relatively small share younger and middle generation). By 2025, Russia will have labor shortages.[4]

With a reduced fertility rate, the load on the working population increases because each worker has to support more retirees.[1]

Demographic aging of the population

Russia at the end of the 19th century was a country with a young population: the number of children significantly exceeded the number of the elderly. Up to 1938, the population of the Soviet Union remained "demographically young", but later, since 1959, began its demographic ageing: the proportion of young age began to decline, and the elderly – to increase, which was the result of lower fertility.[2] This was not unique to Russia, and such issues have been felt in many developed countries and increasingly in many developing countries as well.[5]

Thousands of abandoned villages are scattered across Russia.[6]

Currently, the share of people aged 65 and older in the population of Russia is 13%. According to forecasts of the Russian Academy of Sciences from the early 2000s, in 2016 elderly people aged over 60 would have accounted for 20% of Russians, and children up to 15 years would only have made up 17%. However, in Russia, in contrast to other countries, aging is limited by high mortality among older people.[2][7]

Russian soldier killed in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine has further exacerbated Russia's demographic crisis.[8]

In 2020 however, death rates of over 500,000 people were reported due to the COVID-19 pandemic and 700,000 total deaths since the start of the pandemic. Comparing the two years, 2021 has estimated to have less of an impact on death rates but still exceeded beyond the average birth rates. President Vladimir Putin's plan to overturn the stagnation was announced in 2017 in response to the downward trend. However the plan only partially helped in their demographic crisis and was hindered by the Pandemic, despite showing signs of recovery.

Historical population
YearPop.±% p.a.
1897 67,473,000—    
1926 93,459,000+1.13%
1939 108,377,000+1.15%
1959 117,534,000+0.41%
1970 130,079,000+0.93%
1979 137,552,000+0.62%
1989 147,386,000+0.69%
2002 145,166,731−0.12%
2010 142,856,836−0.20%
2015 144,985,057+0.30%
2019 146,764,655+0.31%
2020 146,171,015−0.40%
2021 146,000,460−0.12%
Source:[9][10][11]

The natural population declined by 997,000 between October 2020 and September 2021 (the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths over a period).[12] The natural death rate in January 2020, 2021, and 2022 have each been nearly double the natural birth rate.[13]

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the demographic crisis in the country has deepened,[14] as the country has reportedly suffered high military fatalities while facing renewed brain drain and human capital flight caused by Western mass-sanctions and boycotts.[15] Many commentators predict that the situation will be worse than during the 1990s.[16]

In March 2023, The Economist reported that "Over the past three years the country has lost around 2 million more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war [in Ukraine], disease and exodus."[17]

According to Russian economist Alexander Isakov, "Russia’s population has been declining and the war will reduce it further. Reasons? Emigration, lower fertility and war-related casualties."[18] Russian journalist Andrey Kolesnikov noted that "We are seeing a phenomenon Russia has faced many times: wave after wave of wars and repression that drain away human resources."[19]

The UN is projecting that the decline that started in 2021 will continue, and if current demographic conditions persist, Russia’s population would be 120 million in fifty years, a decline of about 17%.[20][17]

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Berriault, Lea (2022-01-31). "Russia's demographic setback". GIS Reports. Retrieved 2023-01-15.
  2. 1 2 3 "Russia's Demographic Crisis | Wilson Center". www.wilsoncenter.org. Retrieved 2023-01-15.
  3. ↑ Klomegah, Kester Kenn (2021-02-03). "Moment of Truth: Russia Faces Demography Crisis". Modern Diplomacy. Retrieved 2023-01-15.
  4. ↑ Старостин, Алексей. "Свобода перемещения трудовых ресурсов в ЕАЭС к 2025 году". russiancouncil.ru (in Russian). Retrieved 2022-02-06.
  5. ↑ "The EU is ageing and in need of care - here's what that might mean for its economic future". World Economic Forum. Retrieved 2023-01-15.
  6. ↑ "Russia's decaying villages". Al Jazeera. 2 May 2014.
  7. ↑ Timonin, Sergey; Klimkin, Ilya; Shkolnikov, Vladimir M.; Andreev, Evgeny; McKee, Martin; Leon, David A. (March 2022). "Excess mortality in Russia and its regions compared to high income countries: An analysis of monthly series of 2020". SSM - Population Health. 17: 101006. doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.101006. ISSN 2352-8273. PMC 8717231. PMID 35005187.
  8. ↑ "Russia's 'catastrophic' missing men problem". The Week. 10 May 2023.
  9. ↑ "RUSSIA: historical demographical data of the whole country". Populstat.info. Archived from the original on 7 July 2017. Retrieved 6 July 2017.
  10. ↑ Оценка численности постоянного населения на 1 января 2020 года и в среднем за 2019 год [Preliminary estimated population as of 1 January 2020 and on the average for 2019] (XLS). Rosstat (in Russian).
  11. ↑ "Population of Russia 2022 | Religion in Russia". 3 May 2021.
  12. ↑ Sauer, Pjotr (13 October 2021). "Russia's population undergoes largest ever peacetime decline". The Guardian.
  13. ↑ "Natural population decrease in Russia down by 21% in Jan 2022 vs Jan 2021, but twice higher than in Jan 2020 - Rosstat". Interfax News Agency. 6 March 2022.
  14. ↑ "Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die". The Telegraph. 26 February 2023.
  15. ↑ Cocco, Federica; Ivanonva, Polina (4 April 2022). "Ukraine war threatens to deepen Russia's demographic crisis". Financial Times. London. Archived from the original on 10 December 2022. Retrieved 6 October 2022.
  16. ↑ Goble, Paul (18 August 2022). "Russia's Demographic Collapse Is Accelerating". Eurasia Daily Monitor. Washington, D.C.: Jamestown Foundation. 19 (127).
  17. 1 2 "Russia's population nightmare is going to get even worse". The Economist. 4 March 2023.
  18. ↑ "Putin's War Escalation Is Hastening Demographic Crash for Russia". Bloomberg. 18 October 2022.
  19. ↑ Kolesnikov, Andrei (8 February 2023). "Russia's Second, Silent War Against Its Human Capital". Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  20. ↑ "World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Total Population, as of 1 January column". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022.

Literature

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