Economists for Free Trade
FocusPromoting the benefits of Brexit
Location
  • UK
LeaderPatrick Minford
Website

Economists for Free Trade, previously (before the referendum on Brexit) called Economists for Brexit, is a lobbying group that promoted a no-deal Brexit, which is the situation where the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without a corresponding withdrawal agreement treaty. They believe the UK is better off trading on the terms of the World Trade Organization rather than within the single market and customs union.[1][2] Economists for Free Trade is one of few organisations predicting a positive economic impact of a no-deal Brexit.[3][4]

Led by Professor Patrick Minford, the group maintained close ties to pro-Brexit Conservative MPs.[5][6] Its website was discontinued during 2021, but its advisory board was said to include Jacob Rees-Mogg, Owen Paterson, Matt Ridley and David Jones.[7]

Criticism of Patrick Minford’s Economic Model

A June 2016 critique by the Centre for Economic Performance, a politically independent research centre at the London School of Economics, highlighted the flaws of Minford's economic model for a no-deal Brexit.[8] Their analysis puts into question Minford's figure for economic welfare in the UK to increase by 4% after Brexit and instead predict a 2.3% loss of welfare from Minford's 'Britain Alone' policy.[8]

According to the CEP, Minford overlooks the loss in services trade that would result from leaving the Single Market, such as 'passporting' privileges in financial services.[8] Furthermore, Minford's assumption that goods prices would fall by 10% comes from attributing all producer price differences between the EU and low-cost countries to EU trade barriers, ignoring differences in quality.[8] Minford's approach of ignoring empirical analysis of trade data seems predicated on the view that because statistical analysis is imperfect, it should all be completely ignored.[8] But such statistical biases may reinforce rather than weaken the case for remaining in the EU.[8]

See also

References

  1. ↑ "No deal Brexit to give UK £140billion BOOM say economists - ignore 'project fear HYSTERIA'". 11 March 2019.
  2. ↑ "Media statement: Economists for Free Trade" (PDF) (Press release). 13 March 2019.
  3. ↑ Gemma Tetlow and Alex Stojanovic (November 2018). Institute for Government: Understanding the economic impact of Brexit (PDF). Institute for Government.
  4. ↑ "Why predicting the impact of a no-deal Brexit is so hard". The Economist. 25 July 2019. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2 August 2019.
  5. ↑ The BBC and Brexit (PDF). News-Watch. March 2017.
  6. ↑ "DeSMOG UK: Economists for Free Trade". 2 August 2019.
  7. ↑ "Economists for Free Trade: Who we are". 2 August 2019. Archived from the original on 1 April 2019.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cep.lse.ac.uk. 2016. [online] Available at: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf [Accessed 20 October 2020]
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