14th Five-Year Plan
Simplified Chinese十四五规划
Traditional Chinese十四五規劃
14th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development and Long-range Objectives Through the Year 2035 of the People's Republic of China
Simplified Chinese中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要
Traditional Chinese中華人民共和國國民經濟社會發展第十四個五年計畫和2035年遠景目標綱要

The 14th Five-Year Plan of China, officially the 14th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development and Long-range Objectives Through the Year 2035 of the People's Republic of China, is a set of economic goals designed to strengthen the Chinese economy between 2021 and 2025. It was drafted during the fifth plenum of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held from 26 to 29 October 2020.

The Plan was drafted against the backdrop of worsening China–United States relations and the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused China's economy to shrink in the first quarter of 2020 – the first time in 44 years.[1] Continuing themes from the prior two plans, the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan also seeks to boost the services sector, increase urbanization, and expand the social safety net to reduce precautionary savings.[2]: 197  To address the aging of China's population, the Plan seeks to expand healthcare and retirement system initiatives.[2]: 201  The Plan also emphasizes high-tech innovation.[3]: 135 

Drafting

On 25 November 2019, Premier Li Keqiang chaired a special meeting on the preparation of the 14th Five-Year plan.[4] In March 2020, the drafting panel for the plan was established, with CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping as its leader and Politburo Standing Committee members Li Keqiang, Wang Huning and Han Zheng as deputy leaders.[5]

The plan was drafted during the fifth plenum of the 19th Central Committee of the CCP held from 26 to 29 October 2020.[6] Han Wenxiu, the deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, said Xi Jinping had personally led the drafting process through multiple meetings of the Politburo, its Standing Committee, and the drafting panel that he headed.[7]

Goals

Economy

Broadly outlined in late October 2020, the new plan aims at China becoming a "moderately developed" economy by 2035 with a per capita GDP of about US$30,000, nearly three times the 2020 level. It anticipates future growth as largely based on domestic consumption of goods and services, and aims to reduce disparities between urban and rural living standards. The plan includes the "peaceful development" of relations with Taiwan, considered "a rebel province and part of Chinese territory."[8] The Chinese Government also wishes to continue opening up the economy, furthering the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.[9]

The trade war between the United States and China caused Xi to roll out "dual circulation", with "internal circulation" and "external circulation" servicing domestic and foreign trade respectively.[10] The strategy is designed to keep China open to the world economy while increasing its self-reliance.[11]: 250 

Environment

Economists expect the plan's target growth rate for the period to exceed five percent annually. The 2021–2025 plan is anticipated to have aggressive goals on sustainable energy to reach China's announced goals of carbon neutrality by no later than 2060.[12][13]

  • New Energy Technologies: Xi Jinping has announced that new energy technologies such as car batteries from state-owned enterprises will make it so that half of the vehicles in China be electric or fuel-cell powered, and half hybrid by 2035.[14]
  • Develop a plan to achieve peak carbon emissions by the end of the 2020s.[15]
  • Increase the proportion of non-fossil fuel energy use to 20% by 2025, compared to 15% at the end of 2019.[15]
  • Improve water conservation infrastructure.[16]

Energy

Recommendations regarding the development of up to 60 gigawatts hydropower capacity on the Yarlung Tsangbo.[17]

Transport

Research and development

The plan aims to increase China's scientific and technical capabilities.[19] China aims to make "major breakthroughs in core technologies"[15] and to prioritize technological self-sufficiency.[11]: 218 

The plan aims to increase R&D spending every year by 7%,[15][19] with the proportion of that going to basic research increasing from 6% to more than 8%.[19] and aid the development of real-world applications by fostering closer links between business, industry, and academia – historically such links have been weak.[19] Businesses will be encouraged to invest in R&D through tax incentives.[15][19]

The plan aims to boost quantum information and computing, brain science, semiconductors, seed industry, genetic research, regenerative medicine, biotechnology, clinical medicine and health, and deep space, deep sea and polar exploration.

The plan set the goal of building four comprehensive national science centers, to be located in Huairou, Zhangjiang, the Greater Bay Area, and Hefei.[20]: 123 

China still is unable to independently develop advanced semiconductors that match the performance of those made in Taiwan or South Korea.[21] Acknowledging the challenges that lay ahead, influential officials, entrepreneurs, and academics have evoked the "patriotic spirit of scientists" and called on Chinese students and entrepreneurs to "gnaw on the hard bones" to help China build an independent, controllable semiconductor supply chain.

China has more than 7,200 licensed seed companies but few have the capability for innovation. Tang Renjian, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said the ministry is studying a plan to help its animal and plant breeding sector close the gap with foreign countries.[22]

About a trillion dollars of government funding have been set aside under the technology initiative, part of which will be used by central and local governments to jointly invest in a series of third-generation chip projects, according to people with knowledge of the matter.[23]

“For our country, technology and innovation is not just a matter of growth," Liu He told a three-story auditorium packed with China's top scientists in a separate meeting in May 2021. "It's also a matter of survival."[24]

Urbanization

The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan sets a target urbanization rate of 65%, as measured by permanent population living in cities (i.e., as opposed to hukou status).[20]: 206 

  • Lifting of restrictions on Hukou system for cities under 3 million urban residents and relax it for larger cities. All urban residents will obtain full access to basic urban public services, and rural migrants will be able to get urban residency.[16]
  • Development of clusters of large, medium-sized, and small cities.[16]

References

  1. ↑ Hale, Thomas; Liu, Xinning; Yang, Yuan (17 April 2020). "China's economy shrinks for first time in four decades". Financial Times. Retrieved 30 November 2020.
  2. 1 2 Roach, Stephen S. (2022). Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives. New Haven: Yale University Press. ISBN 978-0-300-26901-7. OCLC 1347023475.
  3. ↑ Liu, Zongyuan Zoe (2023). Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances its Global Ambitions. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. doi:10.2307/jj.2915805. ISBN 9780674271913. JSTOR jj.2915805. S2CID 259402050.
  4. ↑ "李克强主持召开研究部署"十四五"规划编制专题会议" [Li Keqiang presided over a special meeting to study and deploy the preparation of the "14th Five-Year Plan"]. State Council of the People's Republic of China. 26 November 2019. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  5. ↑ "习近平总书记担任规划《建议》起草组组长，亲自领导《建议》的制定" [General Secretary Xi Jinping served as the leader of the drafting group of the planning "Recommendations" and personally led the formulation of the "Recommendations"]. Xinhua News Agency. 30 October 2020. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  6. ↑ Tiezzi, Shannon (29 October 2020). "China's Fifth Plenum: What You Need to Know". The Diplomat. Retrieved 30 November 2020.
  7. ↑ Wang, Orange; Zheng, William; Mai, Jun; Xie, Echo (30 October 2020). "Five-year plan: China moves to technology self-sufficiency". South China Morning Post. Retrieved 30 November 2020.
  8. ↑ Sukri, Azhar (30 October 2020). "Five questions about China's latest five-year plan". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 30 October 2020.
  9. ↑ "China's 14th Five-Year Plan: A First Look". Congressional Research Service. 12 November 2020. Retrieved 30 December 2020.
  10. ↑ Kevin Yao (15 September 2020). "What we know about China's 'dual circulation' economic strategy". Reuters. Retrieved 30 December 2020.
  11. 1 2 Jin, Keyu (2023). The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism. New York: Viking. ISBN 978-1-9848-7828-1.
  12. ↑ Myers, Steven Lee (25 September 2020). "China's Pledge to Be Carbon Neutral by 2060: What It Means". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 12 October 2020.
  13. ↑ "The 14th Five Year Plan: what ideas are on the table?". China Dialogue. 7 August 2019. Retrieved 12 October 2020.
  14. ↑ "China's 14th Five-Year Plan: A First Look". Congressional Research Service. January 5, 2021. Archived from the original on September 24, 2023. Retrieved October 6, 2023.
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 Cooper, Benjamin (1 April 2021). "China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) Report". Hill+Knowlton Strategies. Archived from the original on 11 April 2021. Retrieved 27 May 2021.
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 "Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) for National Economic and Social Development and Vision 2035 of the People's Republic of China_ News_ 福建省人民政府门户网站". www.fujian.gov.cn. Retrieved 2021-08-19.
  17. ↑ "China eyes 60 GW of hydropower on Tibet's Brahmaputra river – state media". Reuters. 30 November 2020. Retrieved 11 December 2020.
  18. ↑ "China to add over 30 civil transport airports by 2025 – China.org.cn". www.china.org.cn. Retrieved 2021-08-19.
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 Mallapaty, Smriti (11 March 2021). "China's five-year plan focuses on scientific self-reliance". Nature. 591 (7850): 353–354. Bibcode:2021Natur.591..353M. doi:10.1038/d41586-021-00638-3. PMID 33707693. S2CID 232208744.
  20. 1 2 Hu, Richard (2023). Reinventing the Chinese City. New York: Columbia University Press. ISBN 978-0-231-21101-7.
  21. ↑ Thomas, Christopher A. (2021-01-07). "Lagging but motivated: The state of China's semiconductor industry". Brookings. Retrieved 2022-05-10.
  22. ↑ "China seed industry seeks better laws to support innovation". CNA.
  23. ↑ "Xi Jinping Picks Top Lieutenant to Lead China's Chip Battle Against U.S." Bloomberg. 17 June 2021.
  24. ↑ "China Is Still Searching for a Chipmaking Advance That Changes the Game". www.bloomberg.com. 27 July 2021. Retrieved 2021-08-19.
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