Improbable
BreedThoroughbred
SireCity Zip
GrandsireCarson City
DamRare Event
DamsireA.P. Indy
SexColt
FoaledFebruary 11, 2016
CountryUSA
ColourChestnut
BreederSt. George Farm LLC & G. Watts Humphrey Jr.
OwnerWinStar Farm LLC, CHC Inc. and SF Racing LLC
TrainerBob Baffert
Record14: 7-3-0
Earnings$1,709,520[1]
Major wins
Los Alamitos Futurity (2018)
Shared Belief Stakes (2019)
Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes (2020)
Whitney Stakes (2020)
Awesome Again Stakes (2020)
Awards
American Champion Older Male Horse (2020)
Last updated on September 27, 2020

Improbable (foaled February 11, 2016) is a champion American Thoroughbred racehorse who was the 2020 Champion Older Dirt Male after winning three Grade One races; the Hollywood Gold Cup, Whitney Stakes, and Awesome Again Stakes. He also came second in the 2020 Breeders' Cup Classic, won the 2018 Los Alamitos Futurity, and came fourth in the 2019 Kentucky Derby as the favorite.

Background

Improbable is a big powerful chestnut with a large white blaze and stockings. He was bred in Kentucky by G. Watts Humphrey Jr. and St. George Farm, owned by Ian Banwell. Improbable was sired by City Zip, a stakes-winning son of Carson City and a half-brother to champion Ghostzapper. Humphrey and Banwell had purchased Improbable's dam, Rare Event, for $400,000 as a yearling in 2010, a reflection of her excellent pedigree as a daughter of Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic winner A.P. Indy. Improbable was her first live foal. He likely suffered oxygen deprivation during the delivery, resulting in a failure to thrive in the days after birth (sometimes called dummy foal syndrome). He required intensive medical care and developed a strong attachment to his handlers.[2]

Improbable was sold as a weanling in 2016 for $110,000 to Taylor Made Agency, which resold him as a yearling in 2017 for $200,000 to WinStar Farm's Maverick Racing and China Horse Club. When he was later put into training with Bob Baffert in 2018, he was placed in the stall of the recently retired Triple Crown winner Justify,[2] who looked very similar to Improbable as they were both big powerful chestnut colts with a white blaze.

Racing career

2018: Two-year-old season

Improbable's first race was on September 29, 2018, at Santa Anita Park where he went 3 wide in the final turn. After that it turned into a two horse race where he and Stretford End opened up 4+1⁄2 lengths on the rest of the field. But with 100 yards to go, Improbable put his head in front under urging, and prevailed to win by a neck.[3] He then picked up his first stakes win in his second race, the Street Sense Stakes on November 2 at Churchill Downs. There he stayed in mid-pack for most of the race, then took over the lead in the stretch and drew off to win by 7+1⁄4 lengths.[4]

He picked up his first Grade 1 win a month later when he won the Los Alamitos Futurity on December 8. In the race he mimicked his win in the Street Sense by staying off the pace before passing Mucho Gusto and drawing away to win by five lengths.[5]

2019: Three-year-old season

Improbable started off the 2019 season with a second place finish in the Rebel Stakes on March 16, followed by a second place finish in the Arkansas Derby on April 13. On May 4 he competed in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, where he came in as the 4-1 favorite[6] but finished in fifth. Due to Maximum Security's disqualification, he was moved up to fourth place.[7] On May 18, he was the favorite in the 2019 Preakness Stakes, but finished sixth after being unruly at the start.[8]

After a layoff, Improbable gained his first win of the 2019 season on August 25 by winning the Shared Belief Stakes. Baffert had added blinkers to keep the colt focused and told jockey Drayden Van Dyke to "just let him go." Going off as the 5-2 favorite, Improbable stalked the early pace, then took the lead on the far turn and easily held off a late run from King Jack to win by 2+3⁄4 lengths.[9] He then competed in the Pennsylvania Derby on September 21, where he came in fourth. To end the 2019 season, he finished fifth in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile on November 2.[1]

2020: Four-year-old season

Improbable started off the 2020 season on April 11 in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes. The Oaklawn Mile, an ungraded stakes race, attracted a strong field of older horses due to the COVID-19 related closures of many racetracks in the spring. It was the strongest field of older males so far that year. Improbable went off as the second betting choice behind Tom's d'Etat, who was making his first start of the year after finishing his 2019 campaign with wins in the Fayette Stakes and Clark Handicap. Improbable settled just off the early leaders while carried four wide through both turns. He briefly took the lead at the head of the stretch but was no match for Tom's d'Etat, who pulled away late to win by three-quarters of a length.[10]

Hollywood Gold Cup

On June 6, Improbable went off as the 3-2 favorite in the Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes. He stalked the early pace, then kicked clear on the far turn to win by 3+1⁄4 lengths over Higher Power. Baffert and Van Dyke had both been confident going into the race. "It was how he has been working in the mornings," said Van Dyke. "I worked him several times going seven furlongs, and these gallop outs that he would give me, it was just unbelievable... He was sitting on a big one, and he ran a big one."[11]

Whitney Stakes

On August 1, he faced a strong field of five in the Grade I Whitney Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. He went off at odds of 3-1, third choice behind Grade I winners Tom's d'Etat and Code of Honor, with multiple graded stakes winner By My Standards going off at 11-2. Despite acting up again in the starting gate, Improbable broke well and pressed the early pace set by long shot Mr. Buff. He went to the lead on the far turn and held off By My Standards to win by two lengths, with Tom's d'Etat a further half length back in third after stumbling out of the gate and overcoming an extremely slow early pace. Baffert, watching the race from California, noted that he'd recently seen a big change in Improbable. "We called him Little Justify last year," he said. "He was a kid. He's a man now. The distance helps."[12]

Awesome Again Stakes

On September 26, he raced in the Awesome Again Stakes, which was a highly anticipated match up between Improbable and Maximum Security, who was the champion three-year-old male in 2019 and leading older male for most of 2020. Maximum Security became another member of the Baffert stable after his original trainer was indicted in March 2020 for doping-related charges. This time, Improbable settled at the back of the pack, as much as six lengths behind the early pace set by Take the One O One. Maximum Security was in third, pressed by the other horses in the field through a relatively brisk pace. Around the far turn, Improbable launched from dead last and circled the field to take the lead. Maximum Security tried to match the move but lacked his normal kick. The new running style seemed to work and Improbable opened up a lead and was geared down at the wire to win impressively by 4+1⁄2 lengths over Maximum Security in a final time of 1:49.01. This was his third straight Grade 1 and it gave him an automatic berth into the Breeders' Cup Classic.[13]

Breeders' Cup Classic

After his three Grade 1 triumphs, Improbable was made the favorite for the 2020 Breeders' Cup Classic on the 7th of November. Improbable made a huge rally at the leader, Kentucky Derby and Haskell Invitational winner Authentic, but couldn't catch him, finishing second. But because he ran on the outside and Authentic on the rail, Improbable actually ran a lot of lengths further than Authentic.

Stud career

The day after the Breeders' Cup Classic, Improbable was retired to stand at stud at WinStar Farm in 2021. His first offspring should reach the racetrack in 2024.

Racing statistics

Date Race Racecourse Grade Distance Finish Margin Time Weight Odds Jockey Ref
Sep 29, 2018 Maiden special weight Santa Anita Park 6 Furlongs 1 Neck 1:10.44 122 lbs 0.40* Drayden Van Dyke [3]
Nov 2, 2018 Street Sense Stakes Churchill Downs 1 mile 1 7+1⁄4 lengths 1:35.61 122 lbs 0.90* Drayden Van Dyke [14]
Dec 8, 2018 Los Alamitos Futurity Los Alamitos Race Course I 1+1⁄16 miles 1 5 lengths 1:41.18 120 lb 0.20* Drayden Van Dyke [15]
Mar 16, 2019 Rebel Stakes Oaklawn Park II 1+1⁄16 miles 2 (Neck) 1:42.49 119 lbs 0.40* Drayden Van Dyke [16]
Apr 13, 2019 Arkansas Derby Oaklawn Park I 1+1⁄8 miles 2 (1 length) 1:49.91 122 lbs 1.90 José Ortiz [17]
May 4, 2019 Kentucky Derby Churchill Downs 1 1+1⁄4 miles 4[lower-alpha 1] (3+1⁄2 lengths)[lower-alpha 2] 2:03.93 126 lbs 4.00* Irad Ortiz Jr. [18]
May 18, 2019 Preakness Stakes Pimlico Race Course I 1+ 3⁄16 miles 6 (4 lengths) 1:54.34 126 lbs 2.50* Mike E. Smith [19]
Aug 25, 2019 Shared Belief Stakes Del Mar Racetrack listed 1 mile 1 2 +3⁄4 lengths 1:37.53 124 lbs 0.70* Drayden Van Dyke [20]
Sep 21, 2019 Pennsylvania Derby Parx Casino and Racing I 1+1⁄8 miles 4 (1+1⁄4 lengths) 1:50.94 119 lbs 1.20* Mike E. Smith [21]
Nov 2, 2019 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Santa Anita Park I 1 mile 5 (9 Lengths) 1:36.58 123 lbs 4.70 Rafael Bejarano [22]
Apr 11, 2020 Oaklawn Mile Stakes Oaklawn Park 1 mile 2 (3⁄4 length) 1:35.83 122 lbs 3.40 Drayden Van Dyke [23]
Jun 6, 2020 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes Santa Anita Park I 1+1⁄4 miles 1 3+ 1⁄4 lengths 2:01.69 122 lbs 1.30* Drayden Van Dyke [24]
Aug 1, 2020 Whitney Stakes Saratoga Race Course I 1+1⁄8 miles 1 2 lengths 1:48.65 124 lbs 3.25 Irad Ortiz Jr. [25]
Sep 26, 2020 Awesome Again Stakes Santa Anita Park I 1+ 1⁄8 miles 1 4+1⁄2 lengths 1:49.01 126 lbs 1.80 Drayden Van Dyke [26]
Nov 7, 2020 Breeders' Cup Classic Keeneland I 1+1⁄4 miles 2 (2+1⁄4 lengths) 1:59.60 126 lbs 3.70 Irad Ortiz Jr.

An asterisk after the odds means Improbable was the post-time favorite.

  1. ↑ Improbable crossed the finish line in fifth but was promoted to fourth due to the disqualification of Maximum Security
  2. ↑ The official margins in the chart were measured from Maximum Security, as was the winning time. Improbable was 1+1⁄2 lengths behind Country House, who became the winner after Maximum Security's disqualification.

Pedigree

Pedigree of Improbable (USA), 2016[27]
Sire
City Zip (USA)
b. 1998		 Carson City (USA)
b. 1987		 Mr. Prospector Raise a Native
Gold Digger
Blushing Promise Blushing Groom
Summertime Promise
Baby Zip (USA)
b. 1991		 Relaunch In Reality
Foggy Note
Thirty Zip Tri Jet
Sailaway
Dam
Rare Event (USA)
b. 2009		 A.P. Indy (USA)
b. 1989		 Seattle Slew Bold Reasoning
My Charmer
Weekend Surprise Secretariat
Lassie Dear
Our Rite of Spring (USA)
b. 2001		 Stravinsky Nureyev
Fire the Groom
Turkish Tryst Turkoman
Darbyvail, out of Luiana (family 16-h)[28]

References

  1. 1 2 "Improbable". Retrieved 9 January 2020.
  2. 1 2 "Tales from the Crib: Improbable". www.kentuckyderby.com. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  3. 1 2 "Chart for September 29, 2018 - Race 1 - Santa Anita". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  4. ↑ "Improbable Anything But In Street Sense Stakes". Retrieved 1 August 2020.
  5. ↑ "Improbable unstoppable in Los Alamitos Futurity romp". Retrieved 1 August 2020.
  6. ↑ "Kentucky Derby odds, picks 2019". Retrieved 1 August 2020.
  7. ↑ "2019 Kentucky Derby: Live Results, Race Winners Tracker". Retrieved 9 January 2020.
  8. ↑ "Preakness results: Who won the 2019 Preakness Stakes? Final order, highlights from the race". Retrieved 9 January 2020.
  9. ↑ "Horse racing: Improbable shows off in Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar".
  10. ↑ "Tom's d'Etat Rallies Past Improbable In Oaklawn Mile". Retrieved 9 January 2020.
  11. ↑ "Improbable Defeats Higher Power in Hollywood Gold Cup". BloodHorse.com. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  12. ↑ "Improbable's clean break at gate gets him Whitney victory". Retrieved 9 January 2020.
  13. ↑ "Improbable Upsets Maximum Security in Awesome Again". BloodHorse.com. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  14. ↑ "Chart of the 2018 Street Sense". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  15. ↑ "Chart of the 2018 Los Alamitos Futurity". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  16. ↑ "Chart of the 2019 Rebel". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  17. ↑ "Chart of the Arkansas Derby". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  18. ↑ "Chart of the 2019 Kentucky Derby". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  19. ↑ "Chart of the 2019 Preakness Stakes". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  20. ↑ "Chart of the 2019 Shared Belief". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  21. ↑ "Chart of the 2019 Pennsylvania Derby". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  22. ↑ "Chart of the 2019 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  23. ↑ "Chart of the 2020 Oaklawn Mile". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  24. ↑ "Chart of the 2020 Hollywood Gold Cup". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  25. ↑ "Chart of the 2020 Whitney Stakes". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  26. ↑ "Chart of the 2020 Awesome Again". Equibase. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
  27. ↑ "Improbable". Retrieved 9 January 2020.
  28. ↑ "Thoroughbred Bloodlines - Lily Agnes - Family 16-h". www.bloodlines.net. Retrieved 27 September 2020.
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