Kosmos-1408
A telescope image showing stars as streaks and Kosmos 1408 debris as circled dots
Ground-based telescope image of Kosmos 1408 debris (circled objects), captured on 15 November 2021
NamesКосмос-1408
Ikar No. 39L
Mission typeELINT
COSPAR ID1982-092A
SATCAT no.13552
Mission duration6 months (planned)[1]
2 years (achieved)[2]
Spacecraft properties
SpacecraftIkar No. 39L [3]
Spacecraft typeELINT
BusTselina-D
ManufacturerYuzhnoye Design Office
Launch mass1,750 kg (3,860 lb)
Start of mission
Launch date16 September 1982, 04:55 UTC
RocketTsyklon-3
Launch sitePlesetsk Cosmodrome, Site 32/2
ContractorYuzhmash
End of mission
Declared1984
Destroyed15 November 2021
Orbital parameters
Reference systemGeocentric orbit[2]
RegimeLow Earth orbit
Perigee altitude465 km (289 mi)
Apogee altitude490 km (300 mi)
Inclination82.60°
Period93.00 minutes
Kosmos Series
 

Kosmos-1408 (Russian: Космос-1408) was an electronic signals intelligence (ELINT) satellite operated by the Soviet Union. It was launched into low Earth orbit on 16 September 1982 at 14:55 UTC, replacing Kosmos-1378. It operated for around two years before becoming inactive and left in orbit.

The satellite was destroyed in a Russian anti-satellite weapon test on 15 November 2021, resulting in space debris in orbits between 300 and 1,100 km (190 and 680 mi) above Earth. The threat of potential collision with debris caused the crew of the International Space Station (ISS) to take shelter in their escape capsules for the first few passes of the debris cloud, and increased the future risk of a debris collision with the ISS or other satellites.

Mission

From 1965 to 1967, the Soviet Yuzhnoye Design Office developed two satellite ELINT systems: Tselina-O for broad observations and Tselina-D for detailed observations. The ELINT payloads (satellites) for Tselina were first tested under the Kosmos designation in 1962–65. The Soviet Ministry of Defence could not convince the different parts of the Soviet military to decide between the two, so both systems were brought into service. The first production Tselina-O was launched in 1970. The Tselina-D took longer to enter service, due to delays with the satellite development and problems with the mass budget. The full Tselina system became operational in 1976. Continued improvements in the satellite systems led to Tselina-O being abandoned in 1984, with all of the capabilities of the two satellite systems being combined into Tselina-D.[4]

Spacecraft

plot showing the decrease in orbit of Kosmos 1408 compared to the ISS orbit
The orbital decay of Kosmos-1408 since 1980, compared with the ISS

Kosmos-1408 was part of the Tselina-D system.[5][6] It had a mass of around 1,750 kg (3,860 lb),[7][8] and a radius of around 2.5 m (8 ft 2 in).[9] It is thought to have replaced Kosmos-1378 in the Tselina system, since it was launched into a similar orbital plane.[4][10]

Kosmos-1408 was launched on a Tsyklon-3 launch vehicle on 16 September 1982,[1] from Site 32/2,[11] at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.[4] It was placed in low Earth orbit, with a perigee of 645 km (401 mi), an apogee of 679 km (422 mi), and an inclination of 82.5°. Its orbital period was 97.8 minutes.[12]

The satellite had an expected lifespan of around six months,[1] but it operated for around two years.[2] The satellite could not be de-orbited after finishing operations because it did not have a propulsion system. Its orbit subsequently slowly decayed due to the small natural drag of the thermosphere.[2][3]

Destruction

plot of declination against right ascension showing the crossing points between ISS and Kosmos 1408 orbits
Warning periods when the ISS and Kosmos-1408 orbits crossed

On 15 November 2021, at around 02:50 UTC, the satellite was destroyed as part of an anti-satellite weapons test by Russia.[2] The direct-ascent anti-satellite[13] A-235 "Nudol" anti-ballistic missile[11] was launched from Plesetsk Cosmodrome[14] at around 02:45 UTC.[2] The system had been undergoing testing since 2014, but this was the first satellite it destroyed.[11] The Outer Space Treaty, which Russia has ratified, bans some types of military activities in space, but not anti-satellite missiles using conventional warheads.[15]

The destruction of the satellite and missile produced a cloud of space debris that threatened the International Space Station.[16][5] The seven crew members aboard the ISS (four American, two Russian, one German)[16] were told to put on their spacesuits[13] and take shelter in the crew capsules[17] so they could quickly return to Earth if debris struck the station.[14] The satellite had been in orbit at an altitude ~50 kilometers (~30 miles) above the ISS orbital altitude,[6] with the debris intersecting the orbit of the ISS every 93 minutes.[18]

The crew sheltered for only the second and third passes through the debris field, based on an assessment of the debris risk.[19] There is no evidence that any debris hit the station,[2] but the risk of a potential impact was thought to be increased by a factor of five for the following weeks and months,[20] and the longer term risk was doubled.[21] In June 2022 the ISS had to manoeuvre to avoid a piece of debris from the satellite.[22] The debris can also pose a risk to other low Earth orbit satellites,[14][9] and several SpaceX Starlink satellites underwent maneuvers to reduce the risk of collision with the debris.[23] On 18 January 2022 there was a near miss (separated by only 14.5 metres (48 ft)) between a piece of debris and the Tsinghua Science Satellite.[24]

On 15 November, the US State Department reported that it had identified about 1,500 pieces of debris that can be tracked by ground-based radar,[18][25] and hundreds of thousands more that are more difficult to track.[14] The same day, breakup of the satellite was independently confirmed by Numerica Corporation and Slingshot Aerospace.[26][20] By 16 November 2021, the debris was orbiting at altitudes between 440 and 520 km (270 and 320 mi);[14] by 17 November 2021 this range increased to 300 to 1,100 km (190 to 680 mi).[27]

On 18 November 2021, LeoLabs, a commercial tracking company, detected around 300 pieces and also estimated that there were around 1,500 ground-trackable pieces in total. They found this lower than expected, compared to other anti-satellite tests, meaning that the pieces are expected to have higher masses so will stay in orbit for longer,[9] and that the lower-than-expected number of debris pieces might be because the event was not a hypervelocity collision.[28] By 21 December, LeoLabs was tracking around 500 pieces of debris, including several large items that are thought to be the solar panels, antennas and booms from the satellite.[8]

The low altitude of the satellite means the debris swarm is expected to be short-lived. As of February 2023 only 300 of the initial 1,790 pieces of debris (17 %) were still in orbit.[29] Increasing solar activity during solar cycle 25 is causing the debris to decay at a faster rate than usual.[30]

Reactions

The US State Department accused Russia of having targeted Kosmos 1408 during an anti-satellite weapon test, using a ground-based missile against their own defunct satellite,[18] saying that it was "dangerous and irresponsible".[16] On 15 November the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, stated that there was no risk to the ISS or other peaceful uses of space.[31] On 16 November, Sergei Shoigu, the Russian minister of defence, acknowledged that the destruction of the satellite was due to a Russian missile test, but argued that it posed no threat to any space activities.[16]

NASA administrator Bill Nelson stated that: "With its long and storied history in human spaceflight, it is unthinkable that Russia would endanger not only the American and international partner astronauts on the ISS, but also their own cosmonauts", and the "actions are reckless and dangerous, threatening as well [sic] the Chinese space station".[32][13]

The Secure World Foundation, a U.S. think tank, called upon the United States, Russia, China, and India to declare unilateral moratoriums on further testing of their antisatellite weapons.[33]

See also

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Kosmos 1408.

References

  1. 1 2 3 "Tselina-D (11F619, Ikar)". Gunter's Space Page. 15 November 2021. Archived from the original on 15 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Jonathan McDowell (20 November 2021). "The 2021 Nudol' test". Jonathan's Space Report. Archived from the original on 20 November 2021. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  3. 1 2 Jonathan McDowell (21 July 2021). "Launch Log". Jonathan's Space Report. Retrieved 17 December 2021.
  4. 1 2 3 "Display: Kosmos-1408 (1982-092A)". NASA. 28 October 2021. Archived from the original on 17 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021. Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  5. 1 2 "Astronauts Forced to Take Shelter as Debris Cloud Threatens Space Station". Gizmodo. Archived from the original on 16 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
  6. 1 2 Trevithick, Joseph. "Russian Anti-Satellite Test Produces Dangerous Debris Cloud In Orbit: Reports (Updated)". The Drive. Archived from the original on 16 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
  7. ↑ "Космические аппараты радиоэлектронного наблюдения". yuzhnoye.com. Archived from the original on 20 November 2021. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
  8. 1 2 "Part III — Cosmos 1408 Breakup Observations One Month Later". Medium. 21 December 2021.
  9. 1 2 3 "Analysis of the Cosmos 1408 Breakup". Medium. 18 November 2021. Archived from the original on 20 November 2021. Retrieved 20 November 2021.
  10. ↑ Soviet space programs, 1976-80 (with supplementary data through 1983). U.S. Government Printing Office. 1984. p. 790.
  11. 1 2 3 Graham, William (15 November 2021). "Russia tests anti-satellite missile, debris disrupts International Space Station". NASASpaceFlight.com. Archived from the original on 16 November 2021. Retrieved 16 November 2021.
  12. ↑ "Trajectory: Kosmos-1408 (1982-092A)". NASA. 28 October 2021. Archived from the original on 16 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021. Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  13. 1 2 3 Atwood, Kylie; Sciutto, Jim; Fisher, Kristin; Gaouette, Nicole. "US says it "won't tolerate" Russia's "reckless and dangerous" anti-satellite missile test". CNN. Archived from the original on 19 November 2021. Retrieved 20 November 2021.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 "Russian Anti-Satellite Test Adds to Worsening Problem of Space Debris". BBC News. 16 November 2021. Archived from the original on 18 November 2021. Retrieved 19 November 2021.
  15. ↑ "Outer Space Treaty". United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. November 2021. Archived from the original on 29 October 2019. Retrieved 16 November 2021.
  16. 1 2 3 4 "Russian Anti-Satellite Missile Test Poses No Threat – Moscow". BBC News. 16 November 2021. Archived from the original on 17 November 2021. Retrieved 19 November 2021.
  17. ↑ Gohd, Chelsea (15 November 2021). "Did Russia just launch an anti-satellite test that created a cloud of space junk?". Space.com. Archived from the original on 16 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
  18. 1 2 3 Grush, Loren (15 November 2021). "Russia blows up a satellite, creating a dangerous debris cloud in space". The Verge. Archived from the original on 17 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
  19. ↑ "NASA Administrator Statement on Russian ASAT Test". NASA. 15 November 2021. Archived from the original on 17 November 2021. Retrieved 16 November 2021. Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  20. 1 2 "Debris from destroyed Russian satellite now visible in telescope images". Room, The Space Journal. Retrieved 30 November 2021.
  21. ↑ "NASA Confirms Russian ASAT Test Doubled Debris Risk to ISS". Space Policy Online. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
  22. ↑ Malik, Tariq (19 June 2022). "International Space Station dodges orbital debris from Russian anti-satellite test". Space.com. Retrieved 21 June 2022. Russia's space agency Roscosmos used an uncrewed Progress 81 cargo ship docked at the International Space Station to move the orbiting lab clear of a piece of space debris from the Russian satellite Cosmos 1408 [...]. Russia destroyed the defunct Soviet-era satellite in a November 2021 anti-satellite missile test.
  23. ↑ "Chinese satellite narrowly avoids collision with debris from Russian explosion". The Independent. 20 January 2022. Retrieved 20 January 2022.
  24. ↑ "US accuses Russia of "dangerous" behavior after anti-satellite weapons test". The Guardian. 15 November 2021. Archived from the original on 16 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
  25. ↑ Howell, Elizabeth (16 November 2021). "Space debris from Russian anti-satellite missile test spotted in telescope images and video". Space.com. Retrieved 30 November 2021.
  26. ↑ Berger, Eric (17 November 2021). "New images and analyses reveal extent of Cosmos 1408 debris cloud". Ars Technica. Archived from the original on 19 November 2021. Retrieved 17 November 2021.
  27. ↑ "Part II — New Observations on Cosmos 1408 Breakup". Medium. 19 November 2021. Archived from the original on 20 November 2021. Retrieved 20 November 2021.
  28. ↑ "Three More Countries Join Pledge Against Destructive ASAT Tests". SpacePolicyOnline. Retrieved 18 July 2023.
  29. ↑ "Wild solar weather is causing satellites to plummet from orbit. It's only going to get worse". Space.com. Retrieved 18 July 2023.
  30. ↑ Gershkovich, Evan. "Russia admits destroying satellite with space missile strike". phys.org. Retrieved 26 November 2021.
  31. ↑ Weitering, Hanneke (16 November 2021). "NASA chief Bill Nelson condemns Russian anti-satellite test". Space.com. Archived from the original on 16 November 2021. Retrieved 18 November 2021.
  32. ↑ "New images and analyses reveal extent of Cosmos 1408 debris cloud". Ars Technica. 17 November 2021. Archived from the original on 19 November 2021. Retrieved 20 November 2021.
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