Hurricane Gilbert was the strongest landfalling storm in Jamaican history

The island nation of Jamaica lies in the Caribbean Sea, south of Cuba and west of Hispaniola. It frequently experiences the effects of Atlantic tropical cyclones that track across the Caribbean, with impacting storms often originating east of the Windward Islands or in the southern Caribbean between Nicaragua and Colombia. There are two climatologically favored periods during the year for Jamaica hurricane activity, with the first lasting from August to mid-September and the second occurring during the latter half of October.

Observation

The earliest records of Jamaican hurricanes were derived from British observations during the colonial era, including those curated by British meteorologist William Reid and historians Bryan Edwards and Edward Long.[1] In 2003, weather historical Michael Chenoweth developed a reconstruction of Jamaica's climate in the 18th century based on daily records kept by slaveowner Thomas Thistlewood, finding 12 tropical cyclone that produced gale-force or stronger sustained winds between 1750 and 1786 in Savanna-la-Mar.[2] Thistlewood's observations were one of the first continuous weather records outside of Europe and the United States.[3] Wind directions were also documented, with westerlies indicative of nearby tropical disturbances during the summer rainy season.[4] Formal monitoring of hurricanes in Jamaica began with the formation of the Jamaican Weather Service in Kingston in 1880. Between its formation and 1896, the agency observed 38 tropical depressions and issued hurricane warnings three times.[5] Tropical cyclones were of great importance to colonial interests due to their effects on crops and the slave trade.[6]

Climatology

Tropical waves guided west into the Caribbean by the Azores High are a major part of Jamaica's climate. Some waves develop into tropical cyclones.

Tropical cyclones have impacted Jamaica throughout the Atlantic hurricane season between June and November, reflecting a timeframe most conducive to storm development in the Caribbean Sea and Jamaica's rainy season.[7] During the spring, the Azores High shifts north, causing a decrease in wind shear and the strength of trade winds in the Caribbean and resulting in conditions favorable for convection. In summer, tropical waves are steered westward into the Caribbean by the high-pressure area; these are the primary cause of rainfall and Jamaica and may develop further into hurricanes before reaching the island.[8] Climatologically, there are two peaks in Jamaican hurricane activity in August–September and the latter half of October. Hurricane activity near Jamaica is generally minimal until late July.[9] Based on observations between 1886 and 1996, there is a 48 percent chance that at least one hurricane will threaten Jamaica and a 16 percent change that two or more will threaten the country, with a hurricane threat defined as a storm's center passing within 500 km (310 mi) of Jamaica.[10] Tropical waves and tropical cyclones account for 46 percent of destructive floods in Jamaica.[11]

Jamaica's hurricanes typically have tropical origins rather than baroclinic ones; only the 1912 hurricane was of baroclinic nature. All landfalling hurricanes developed south of 15°N, and those that form east of the Windward Islands tend to continue west into the Yucatan Peninsula.[12] On average, the southern coast is the most vulnerable to storm impacts. Most hurricanes impacting Jamaica take a southeast to northwest path, and those that do often approach from south of the island.[13] During the second activity peak in October, storms impacting Jamaica tend to originate from the southern or southwestern Caribbean and are often associated with the monsoon trough rather than tropical waves. These storms develop between Nicaragua and Colombia and track north towards Jamaica.[12]

Hurricane activity tends to be reduced during El Niño events when the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador is abnormally warm, due to an increase in vertical wind shear which is disruptive to hurricanes. This is correlated with a drier and warmer wet season in the Caribbean.[14] Jamaica saw an elevated number of hurricane impacts in the 18th century and early 19th century. There has been an increase in hurricane intensity, frequency, and duration in the Atlantic since the early 1980s.[12] The primary cause remains unknown, with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate change discussed as possible but not definitive causes.[14] Based on a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2012, the effects of climate change on storm tracks and frequency are uncertain or marginal, while wind and rainfall intensities are expected to increase.[15]

Statistics

Storms Affecting Jamaica by month
Month Number of Storms
June
3
July
1
August
17
September
8
October
18
November
6
Overall
53
Storms affecting Jamaica by period
Period Number of storms
1700s
5
1800–1870
4
1870–1899
8
1900–1919
7
1920–1939
3
1940–1969
9
1970–1999
7
2000–2019
10
Overall
53

List of storms

Pre-1900

A sequence of eight weather maps indicating a hurricane
A series of maps showing the 1880 hurricane's crossing of Jamaica, with cyclonic winds revealing the storm's location
  • August 28, 1712 – Many homes and plantations were destroyed by a passing hurricane.[16]: 68 
  • August 28, 1722 – The eye of an intense hurricane crossed Port Royal, bringing a 4.9 m (16 ft) storm surge and causing extensive damage throughout the island.[17] Half of the port's buildings were destroyed, with those built during English rule suffering worse than those built under Spanish rule.[18] Roughly 400 people were killed, and only 4 crew among the 50 ships moored at Port Royal survived.[17] The sinking of the slave ship Kingston alone claimed the lives of two hundred people. Surviving colonists were stricken without basic necessities.[19] The storm's passage was documented in John Atkins' A Voyage to Guinea, Brasil, and the West-Indies (1723).[20]
  • October 22, 1726 – A hurricane impacted the eastern part of Jamaica, damaging or sinking 50 ships and toppling several homes in Kingston, Port Royal, and Spanish Town.[17]
  • October 20, 1744 – Wharves in Old Harbour, Passage Fort, and Port Royal were destroyed by a hurricane. In harbours, 104 ships capsized. A newly-established fort at Mosquito Point was also destroyed. An epidemic followed the storm, claiming additional lives.[17]
  • October 3, 1780 – A hurricane's high storm surge destroyed Savanna-la-Mar and heavily impacted the southern coast of Jamaica, particularly southwestern portions.[21]
  • October 12–14, 1812 – A large cyclone affected much of the island. Houses were destroyed in Kingston and Savanna-la-Mar.[21]
  • August 1, 1813 – A storm disrupted shipping and damaged buildings in Kingston.[21]
  • August 28, 1813 – Vessels were wrecked by a storm in Savanna-la-Mar.[21]
  • October 18–19, 1815 – Heavy rains attending a storm caused flooding in eastern Jamaica. Homes were destroyed in St. George and St. James.[21]
  • November 2, 1874 – A Category 2 hurricane made landfall on Clarendon with winds of 170 km/h (105 mph), causing £75,000 in damage and killing five people.[22] Kingston, St. Ann, and St. Mary suffered the worst impacts. Crops were destroyed throughout the country and entire villages were washed away.[21]
  • October 11–13, 1879 – A passing tropical storm causes torrential downpours, dropping 17.80 in (452 mm) of rain in Kingston where 13 fatalities occurred.[23] The deluge swept away bridges, homes, and roads. Coffee and pimento plantations were also badly damaged.[24]
  • August 19, 1880 – Kingston was hit by a hurricane,[25][26] damaging crops and shipping in the city.[27] Up-Park Camp incurred US$50,000 in losses after the military barracks were destroyed.[28] Thirty people were killed in the accompanying floods throughout Jamaica.[27] In Yallahs, 59 homes were destroyed and 3 people were killed.[28] Though listed officially in the Atlantic hurricane database as a minor hurricane, a 2014 analysis by Michael Chenoweth suggested it may have been a major hurricane.[25] Initial reports suggested two tropical cyclones were involved.[1]
  • October 8, 1884 – The eastern half of Jamaica is struck by an intensifying tropical storm,[29] producing heavy rainfall over Jamaica.[30] In St. Thomas, 8–9 in (200–230 mm) of rain caused damage to roads and property, as well as "some loss of life". Runoff from the Blue Mountains caused additional flooding in Morant Bay.[31]
  • June 27, 1886 – At least 18 people were killed by a tropical storm that may have skirted the northern coast of Jamaica, primarily affecting the eastern half of the island.[32][33] An 8 ft (2.4 m) surge affected the eastern end of the island, washing away wharves in Boston. Fifteen drowned in Port Royal after their ship was overtaken by the waves.[34]
  • August 19–20, 1886 – The center of a Category 2 hurricane crossed Jamaica from the southeast to Montego Bay.[27] At the Morant Point Lighthouse, the shore recessed 124 ft (38 m). In Elmwood, 17 in (430 mm) of rain was recorded.[35]
  • October 27, 1899 –
  • November 8, 1899 –

1900–1919

  • August 11, 1903
  • June 13, 1904
  • November 10–18, 1912
  • August 12–13, 1915
  • September 24–25, 1915
  • August 15–16, 1916
  • September 23, 1917

1920–1939

  • November 8, 1939 Cuba hurricane
  • October 29, 1933
  • October 21, 1935

1940–1969

  • August 20, 1944 – A Category 3 hurricane cut across Jamaica from Boston Bay to Montego Bay,[36] causing widespread destruction along the northern half of the island.[37] Winds of approximately 100–120 mph (160–190 km/h) strike Annotto Bay.[36] An estimated 90 percent of banana trees and 41 percent of coconut trees were lost, with an estimated damage toll in the millions of dollars. At least 30 fatalities were associated with the storm.[38]
  • October 15–16, 1950
  • August 17–18, 1951 – Hurricane Charlie
  • October 5, 1954
  • September 26–27, 1955
  • September 1958
  • October 5–7, 1963
  • August 25, 1964
  • September 12, 1967

1970–1999

2000–2021

A destroyed concrete waterfront house in Kingston after Hurricane Dean

See also

References

Sources
  • Chenoweth, Michael (January 1, 2003). "The 18th Century Climate of Jamaica: Derived from the Journals of Thomas Thistlewood, 1750–1786". Transactions of the American Philosophical Society. 93 (2): i–153. doi:10.2307/20020339. JSTOR 20020339. (subscription required)
  • Elsner, James B.; Kara, A. Birol (1999). Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society. New York City: Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780195352283. Retrieved August 21, 2019 – via Google Books.
  • "History of Hurricanes and Floods in Jamaica" (PDF). Kingston, Jamaica: National Library of Jamaica. n.d. Retrieved August 21, 2019.
  • Mulcahy, Matthew (2008). Hurricanes and society in the British Greater Caribbean, 1624–1783. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press. ISBN 9780801898976. Retrieved August 21, 2019 – via Google Books.
  • Taylor, Michael A.; Brown, Alrick A.; Stephenson, Kimberly A.; Maitland, Deron; Walters, Rochelle N.; Douglas, Christina A.; Jones, Jhordanne J.; Daley, Alton; Campbell, Jayaka D.; Mandal, Arpita; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Charlton, Candice S.; Brown, Pietra; Rankine, Dale; Stennett-Brown, Roxann (October 2017). The State of Jamaican Climate 2015: Information for Resilience Building (PDF). Planning Institute of Jamaica (Report). Kingston, Jamaica: Climate Studies Group Mona. ISBN 978-976-8103-69-7. OCLC 1047609635. Retrieved August 21, 2019.
Citations
  1. 1 2 Hall, Maxwell (December 12, 1915). "Storms and Hurricanes in Jamaica, 1655–1915" (PDF). Monthly Weather Review. Silver Spring, Maryland: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 43 (12): 620. Bibcode:1915MWRv...43..620H. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1915)43<620a:SAHIJ>2.0.CO;2. Retrieved August 21, 2019.
  2. ↑ Chenoweth, p. 85.
  3. ↑ Chenoweth, p. 15.
  4. ↑ Chenoweth, p. 35.
  5. ↑ Hall, Maxwell (July 1898). "The Jamaica Weather Service" (PDF). Monthly Weather Review. Silver Spring, Maryland: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 26 (7): 303–304. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1898)26[303b:TJWS]2.0.CO;2. Retrieved August 21, 2019. Open access icon
  6. ↑ Chenoweth, p. 6.
  7. ↑ Taylor et al., p. 28.
  8. ↑ Taylor et al., p. 23.
  9. ↑ Elsner and Kara, p. 228.
  10. ↑ Elsner and Kara, p. 232.
  11. ↑ Taylor et al., p. 49.
  12. 1 2 3 Elsner and Kara, p. 227.
  13. ↑ Taylor et al., p. 45.
  14. 1 2 Taylor et al., p. 40.
  15. ↑ Taylor et al., pp. 84–86.
  16. ↑ Nelson, Louis P. (March 15, 2016). Architecture and Empire in Jamaica. New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University Press. ISBN 9780300211009.
  17. 1 2 3 4 "History of Hurricanes", p. 1.
  18. ↑ Mulcahy, p. 121.
  19. ↑ Mulcahy, Matthew (June 11, 2006). "Hurricanes, Poverty, and Vulnerability: An Historical Perspective". Understanding Katrina: Perspectives from the Social Sciences. New York City: Social Science Research Council. Retrieved August 21, 2019.
  20. ↑ Atkins, John (1723). A voyage to Guinea, Brasil and the West Indies. London, England. pp. 237–242.
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "History of Hurricanes", p. 2.
  22. ↑ Knapp, K. R.; M. C. Kruk; D. H. Levinson; H. J. Diamond; C. J. Neumann (2010). 1874 Hurricane Not_Named (1874304N14283). The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone best track data (Report). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  23. ↑ Fernandez-Partagas, Jose J. (n.d.). Year 1879 (PDF). Part II: 1871–1880 (Report). Miami, Florida: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  24. ↑ "The Floods in Jamaica". The Aberdare Times. Aberdare, Wales. November 15, 1879. p. 3. Retrieved August 22, 2019 – via The National Library of Wales.
  25. 1 2 Knapp, K. R.; M. C. Kruk; D. H. Levinson; H. J. Diamond; C. J. Neumann (2010). 1880 Hurricane Not_Named (1880228N14301). The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone best track data (Report). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  26. ↑ Scientific American, "Two Disastrous Hurricanes". Munn & Company. September 25, 1880. p. 202.
  27. 1 2 3 "History of Hurricanes", p. 3.
  28. 1 2 "Barometric Pressure" (PDF). Monthly Weather Review. Silver Spring, Maryland: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 8 (8): 3–4. August 1880. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1880)88[2b:BP]2.0.CO;2. Retrieved August 22, 2019. Open access icon
  29. ↑ Knapp, K. R.; M. C. Kruk; D. H. Levinson; H. J. Diamond; C. J. Neumann (2010). 1884 Hurricane Not_Named (1884280N12281). The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone best track data (Report). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  30. ↑ Fernandez-Partagas, Jose J. (n.d.). Year 1884 (PDF). Part III: 1881–1890 (Report). Miami, Florida: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  31. ↑ Weather Report (PDF) (Report). Kingston, Jamaica: Jamaica Weather Service. November 27, 1884. p. 3. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  32. ↑ Knapp, K. R.; M. C. Kruk; D. H. Levinson; H. J. Diamond; C. J. Neumann (2010). 1886 Hurricane Not_Named (1886178N17286). The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone best track data (Report). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  33. ↑ Rappaport, Edward N.; Fernandez-Partagas, Jose; Beven, Jack (April 22, 1997). "Appendix 2: Cyclones that may have 25+ deaths". The Deadliest Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1492–1996. National Hurricane Center (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  34. ↑ Supplement to the Jamaica Gazette (PDF) (Report). Weather Report. Vol. 9. Kingston, Jamaica: Jamaica Weather Service. August 5, 1886. pp. 465–467. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  35. ↑ Supplement to the Jamaica Gazette (PDF) (Report). Weather Report. Vol. 9. Kingston, Jamaica: Jamaica Weather Service. August 5, 1886. p. 732. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  36. 1 2 Landsea, Chris; Anderson, Craig; Bredemeyer, William; Carrasco, Cristina; Charles, Noel; Chenoweth, Michael; Clark, Gil; Delgado, Sandy; Dunion, Jason; Ellis, Ryan; Fernandez-Partagas, Jose; Feuer, Steve; Gamanche, John; Glenn, David; Hagen, Andrew; Hufstetler, Lyle; Mock, Cary; Neumann, Charlie; Perez Suarez, Ramon; Prieto, Ricardo; Sanchez-Sesma, Jorge; Santiago, Adrian; Sims, Jamese; Thomas, Donna; Lenworth, Woolcock; Zimmer, Mark (May 2015). "Documentation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Changes in HURDAT". Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (Metadata). Miami, Florida: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
  37. ↑ "Northside Hit Hard by Devastating Storm". The Daily Gleaner. Vol. 110, no. 179. Kingston, Jamaica. August 22, 1944. pp. 1, 8 – via NewspaperArchive.com.
  38. ↑ Sumner, H. C. (December 1944). "North Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical Disturbances of 1944" (PDF). Monthly Weather Review. Washington, D.C.: American Meteorological Society. 72 (12): 237–240. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1944)072<0237:NAHATD>2.0.CO;2. Retrieved July 1, 2019. Open access icon
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