Next Catalan regional election
No later than 31 March 2025
All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Salvador Illa Pere Aragonès TBD
Party PSC–PSOE ERC Junts
Leader since 30 December 2020 20 November 2020 —
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona —
Last election 33 seats, 23.0% 33 seats, 21.3% 32 seats, 20.1%
Seats needed 35 35 36
 
Leader Ignacio Garriga TBD Jéssica Albiach
Party Vox CUP–G ECP–PEC
Leader since 10 August 2020 — 18 September 2018
Leader's seat Barcelona — Barcelona
Last election 11 seats, 7.7% 9 seats, 6.7% 8 seats, 6.9%
Seats needed 57 59 60
 
Leader Carlos Carrizosa Alejandro Fernández
Party CS PP
Leader since 19 August 2020 10 November 2018
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 6 seats, 5.6% 3 seats, 3.8%
Seats needed 62 65
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Catalonia
Incumbent President

Pere Aragonès
ERC


The next Catalan regional election will be held no later than Monday, 31 March 2025, to elect the 14th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure comes regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law.[lower-alpha 1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[3]

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:[1][4]

Seats Constituencies
85 Barcelona
18 Tarragona
17 Girona
15 Lleida

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[5]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The regional president is required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 14 February 2021, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 14 February 2025. The election is required to be called no later than 30 January 2025, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 31 March 2025.[1]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.[6][7][8]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialists' and United to Advance
Parliamentary Group		 PSC 32 33
Els Units 1
Republican Parliamentary Group ERC 33 33
Together for Catalonia's Parliamentary Group JxCat 28 32
AxR 1
IdE 1
DC 2
Vox's Parliamentary Group in Catalonia Vox 11 11
Popular Unity Candidacy–A New Cycle to Win's
Parliamentary Group		 CUP 8 9
Guanyem 1
In Common We Can's Parliamentary Group CatComú 7 8
Podem 1
Citizens's Parliamentary Group CS 6 6
Mixed Group PP 3 3

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[9]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSC–PSOE
List
 Salvador Illa Social democracy 23.03% 33 ☒ [10]
ERC Pere Aragonès Catalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy		 21.30% 33 check
Junts TBD Catalan independence
Populism		 20.07% 32 ☒
Vox
List
 Ignacio Garriga Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 7.67% 11 ☒
ECP–PEC
List
 Jéssica Albiach Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Eco-socialism		 6.87% 8 ☒
CUP–G
List
 TBD Catalan independence
Anti-capitalism
Socialism		 6.68% 9 ☒
CS Carlos Carrizosa Liberalism 5.58% 6 ☒
PP
List
 Alejandro Fernández Conservatism
Christian democracy		 3.85% 3 ☒

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 14 February 2021 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSC ERC JxCat Vox ECP CUP CS PP PDeCAT Sumar Lead
GESOP/CEO[p 1] 9 Oct–7 Nov 2023 2,000 ? 27.0–
31.0
39/45		 18.0–
22.0
29/34		 12.0–
15.0
19/24		 5.0–
7.0
6/9		 8.0–
11.0
10/14		 4.0–
6.0
4/8		 0.0–
1.0
0		 9.0–
12.0
12/17		 – – – – – 9.0
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 2] 25 Sep–10 Oct 2023 1,000 ? 26.8
36		 18.7
28		 19.5
31		 9.1
12		 7.8
9		 5.9
8		 1.5
0		 8.7
11		 – – – – – 7.3
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 3] 7–9 Sep 2023 1,000 ? 26.1
36		 20.3
31		 19.6
31		 6.2
7		 8.4
10		 5.2
7		 – 10.3
13		 – – – – – 5.8
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 62.7 34.5
(50)		 13.2
(20)		 11.2
(17)		 7.8
(11)		 [lower-alpha 2] 2.8
(1)		 – 13.4
(17)		 0.9
(0)		 – – [lower-alpha 2] 14.0
(19)		 20.5
GESOP/CEO[p 4] 29 May–26 Jun 2023 2,000 ? 22.0–
26.0
31/37		 19.0–
23.0
31/36		 15.0–
18.0
25/30		 5.0–
8.0
6/10		 6.0–
9.0
7/11		 6.0–
8.0
7/11		 1.0–
2.0
0		 10.0–
12.0
13/17		 – – – – – 3.0
GESOP/CEO[p 5] 27 Feb–24 Mar 2023 2,000 ? 23.0–
27.0
34/40		 18.0–
22.0
29/34		 14.0–
17.0
22/28		 6.0–
8.0
7/10		 6.0–
9.0
7/12		 6.0–
8.0
8/12		 3.0–
5.0
0/5		 7.0–
9.0
8/12		 – – – – – 5.0
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 6] 12 Oct–10 Dec 2022 12,003 ? 22.2
32		 23.1
36		 15.7
24		 8.8
12		 7.8
10		 7.6
10		 2.3
0		 6.6
8		 – 3.1
3		 – – – 0.9
GESOP/CEO[p 7] 27 Sep–21 Oct 2022 2,000 ? 23.0–
27.0
35/41		 18.0–
22.0
30/36		 12.0–
15.0
19/24		 5.0–
7.0
6/10		 6.0–
8.0
6/10		 6.0–
8.0
8/12		 2.0–
4.0
0/4		 8.0–
11.0
11/16		 – – – – – 5.0
GESOP/El Periódico[p 8] 13–14 Oct 2022 803 ? 24.8
37/38		 20.1
32/33		 18.6
29/30		 6.4
8/9		 6.3
7/8		 7.5
10/11		 2.0
0		 7.1
9/10		 – – – – – 4.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 9] 31 Aug–13 Oct 2022 1,540 ? 21.6
31		 22.4
35		 16.5
25		 8.6
12		 7.6
9		 7.5
10		 2.4
0		 6.6
8		 – 3.6
5		 0.8
0		 0.8
0		 – 0.8
GESOP/CEO[p 10] 7 Jun–7 Jul 2022 2,000 ? 25.0–
29.0
36/42		 19.0–
23.0
31/37		 14.0–
17.0
22/27		 4.0–
6.0
4/8		 4.0–
6.0
4/7		 6.0–
8.0
8/12		 4.0–
6.0
3/6		 7.0–
10.0
9/14		 – – – – – 6.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 11] 15 Apr–30 May 2022 1,565 ? 21.9
31		 23.2
38		 16.6
26		 9.2
12		 7.3
8		 7.5
10		 2.7
0		 6.0
7		 – 2.5
3		 0.8
0		 0.7
0		 – 1.3
Feedback/El Nacional[p 12] 10–19 May 2022 1,000 59.3 23.3
33/35		 21.1
31/34		 16.3
25/26		 8.4
11/12		 8.7
10/11		 6.7
8/10		 3.8
3/4		 5.4
6/7		 1.8
0		 – – – – 2.2
Ipsos/La Vanguardia[p 13][p 14] 9–12 May 2022 ? 51 25.2
36		 20.8
33		 15.7
25		 9.3
12		 7.6
9		 7.8
10		 3.5
3		 5.8
7		 1.5
0		 – – – – 4.4
GESOP/CEO[p 15] 1–28 Mar 2022 2,000 ? 23.0–
29.0
34/39		 20.0–
25.0
33/38		 13.0–
18.0
23/28		 6.0–
10.0
9/12		 6.0–
9.0
6/10		 6.0–
9.0
8/11		 2.0–
5.0
0/4		 4.0–
8.0
6/8		 – – – – – 3.0–
4.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 16] 30 Aug–14 Oct 2021 4,146 ? 24.7
35		 24.6
38		 18.0
27		 7.2
10		 6.5
7		 6.9
10		 2.6
0		 6.3
8		 – – – – – 0.1
GAD3/La Vanguardia[p 17] 20–22 Sep 2021 806 62.0 24.1
33/34		 25.9
39/40		 17.3
27		 6.9
8/10		 8.1
10		 4.6
6/7		 3.8
3		 5.9
6/7		 0.6
0		 – – – – 1.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 18] 31 May–13 Jul 2021 3,458 ? 24.7
36		 23.4
35		 19.5
31		 7.1
8		 6.3
7		 7.4
10		 2.2
0		 6.7
8		 – – – – – 1.3
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 19] 11–19 May 2021 1,200 60 23.8
34/35		 24.0
36/37		 18.0
28/29		 6.2
7/8		 6.6
8/9		 8.3
11/12		 2.4
0/2		 6.4
6/7		 – – – – – 0.2
GESOP/El Periódico[p 20] 12–14 May 2021 801 ? 26.2
37/38		 22.5
34/36		 17.0
25/27		 7.7
10/11		 6.9
8/9		 7.5
9/10		 4.0
3/4		 4.9
5/6		 1.3
0		 – – – – 3.7
GAD3/La Vanguardia[p 21] 11–12 May 2021 800 56.0 25.4
36		 22.2
35		 20.8
33		 6.3
8		 6.4
7		 6.2
8		 2.3
0		 7.0
8		 0.8
0		 – – – – 3.2
NC Report/La Razón[p 22][p 23] 30 Mar–1 Apr 2021 1,000 50.4 23.5
34		 22.4
34		 19.2
31		 8.1
12		 6.7
8		 6.9
9		 3.1
2		 5.4
5		 – – – – – 1.1
2021 regional election 14 Feb 2021 — 51.3 23.0
33		 21.3
33		 20.1
32		 7.7
11		 6.9
8		 6.7
9		 5.6
6		 3.8
3		 2.7
0		 – – – – 1.7

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Notes

  1. ↑ Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.
  2. 1 2 Within Sumar.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 17 November 2023.
  2. ↑ "Illa ganaría hoy las elecciones catalanas y Junts sería la segunda fuerza política". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 16 October 2023.
  3. ↑ "Carles Puigdemont ya rentabiliza la negociación con Pedro Sánchez y superaría a ERC en unas generales". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 September 2023.
  4. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 July 2023.
  5. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 April 2023.
  6. ↑ "ERC ganaría las elecciones catalanas: el independentismo vuelve a sumar". Crónica Global (in Spanish). 13 December 2022.
  7. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 9 November 2022.
  8. 1 2 3 "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: El PSC afianza su ventaja y ERC se impone a Junts tras la ruptura del Govern". El Periódico (in Spanish). 16 October 2022.
  9. ↑ "EP Cataluña (15oct): continúa la lucha PSC-ERC. Subida de Valents". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2022.
  10. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 July 2022.
  11. ↑ "CatPanel (31My): Valents irrumpe en el Parlament. ERC en cabeza, con el PSC detrás". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 May 2022.
  12. ↑ "El PSC se impondría en las elecciones catalanas y el independentismo recularía". El Nacional (in Spanish). 23 May 2022.
  13. ↑ "¿Quién ganaría las elecciones en Catalunya en plena polémica por el espionaje de Pegasus?". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 14 May 2022.
  14. ↑ "CATALUÑA. Encuesta Ipsos 14/05/2022: CUP 7,8% (10), JxCAT 15,7% (25), ERC 20,8% (33), PDeCAT 1,5%, ECP-PEC 7,6% (9), PSC 25,2% (36), Cs 3,5% (3), PP 5,8% (7), VOX 9,3% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 May 2022.
  15. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 7 April 2022.
  16. ↑ "Empate PSC-ERC, Junts baja y Vox cuarto". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 October 2021.
  17. ↑ "ERC adelanta al PSC, que también ampliaría su ventaja sobre Junts". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 September 2021.
  18. ↑ "CatPanel (15JL): bajada de Vox, que es sorpassado por la CUP. Subida del PSC". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 July 2021.
  19. 1 2 "Enquesta sobre context polític a Catalunya. 2021" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 May 2021.
  20. 1 2 "Encuesta elecciones Catalunya: Una repetición electoral reforzaría a PSC y a ERC, y haría caer a Junts". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 May 2021.
  21. ↑ "El PSC ampliaría su ventaja y ERC superaría a Junts si se votara otra vez". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2021.
  22. ↑ "Elecciones en Cataluña: Castigo a JxCat por el "no" a ERC y trasvase de votos de Cs al PP". La Razón (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
  23. ↑ "CATALUÑA. Encuesta NC Report 03/04/2021: CUP-G 6,9% (9), JxCAT 19,2% (31), ERC 22,4% (34), ECP-PEC 6,7% (8), PSC 23,5% (34), Cs 3,1% (2), PP 5,4% (5), VOX 8,1% (12)". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 April 2021.
  24. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 17 November 2023.
  25. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 July 2023.
  26. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2023" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 5 April 2023.
  27. ↑ "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2022" (PDF). ICPS (in Catalan). 13 January 2023.
  28. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 9 November 2022.
  29. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 28 July 2022.
  30. ↑ "Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 1a onada 2022" (PDF). CEO (in Catalan). 7 April 2022.
  31. ↑ "Sondeig d'Opinió ICPS, 2021" (PDF). ICPS (in Catalan). 3 December 2021.
  32. ↑ "Sondeo de GAD3 para 'La Vanguardia'. Ficha técnica". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 September 2021.
  33. ↑ "Método de estimación de voto y escaños". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 16 May 2021.
  34. ↑ "Sondeo Catalunya: Illa es el preferido como 'president' y Aragonès aventaja a Puigdemont". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 15 May 2021.
Other
  1. 1 2 3 4 "Ley Orgánica 6/2006, de 19 de julio, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña". Organic Law No. 6 of 19 July 2006 (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  2. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ↑ Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). "El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  4. ↑ "Ley Orgánica 4/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña". Organic Law No. 4 of 18 December 1979 (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017.
  5. ↑ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  6. ↑ "Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya (1980 - 2021)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 May 2021.
  7. ↑ "Parlament de Catalunya: grups parlamentaris (1980 - ...)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 May 2021.
  8. ↑ "Diputats del Parlament de Catalunya (1932 - 2021)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 May 2021.
  9. ↑ "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  10. ↑ G. Sastre, Daniel (27 October 2021). "El PSC nombra a Illa primer secretario electo". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 October 2021.
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