Supreme Leader of Iran election
TBA
88 Members in the Assembly of Experts
59 votes needed to win

As of January 2024, no person has been officially declared as the heir to the current leader nor as a nominee, though various sources have written on potential candidates.

The succession of Ali Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader of Iran, has been considered a taboo in Iran.[1][2] Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts is tasked to select the next leader. Its fifth and current term was elected in 2016 and is scheduled to preside until 2024.[3]

Khamenei has not discussed his replacement. He has said selecting the future leader must be without care and shame and or regard expediency but based on only the 3 principles of "truth, the need of the country, and God".[4][5]

A four man council of Assembly of Experts is selecting possible candidates while keeping it fully secret and advising the current supreme leader as of 2024.[6][7]

Vice Supreme leader

As of 2023 assembly of Experts has a program to possibly pick a second and restablish vice Supreme leader.[8]

Constitutional eligibility

Works related to Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran at Wikisource

According to Article 111 of Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, if the incumbent supreme leader dies in office or has been dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should immediately hold a session and select his successor as soon as they can.[3] According to the same article, until the selection is made, a 'Provisional Leadership Council' is mandated to carry out the responsibilities of the supreme leader, which is made up of the incumbent President, the incumbent Chief Justice, and one of clerics of the Guardian Council who is selected by the Expediency Discernment Council.[3]

Alleged plans

In December 2015, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said a committee in the Assembly of Experts "is examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader." He also said the Assembly would be open to choosing "a council of leaders if needed" instead of a single leader.[1]

Ahmad Khatami told press in 2016 that a committee made up of three Assembly members had given three names to the supreme leader "to seek his verdict", but later remarked what he said was "hypothetical" and blamed media for misreporting his words.[9] Mohsen Araki, commented in June 2019 that the committee has drafted a "top secret list of prospective supreme leaders" and will present three names to the Assembly "when it is necessary."[9] Hashem Hashemzadeh Herisi confirmed that such a committee exists, adding that the names on the list will not be disclosed. He also stated that the decisions made by the committee will not be fateful because the next leader must be voted by a majority of all members in the assembly.[9] Prior to that, in February 2019 Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari had categorically dismissed allegations that Raisi and Khatami are considered as candidates for the next leader by the assembly, stating that the question "has never been debated at the assembly".[10]

Analysis

In 2023 Israeli military intelligence had assessed President Ebrahim Raisi would succeed Khamenei.[11] John Bolton argued regime would be vulnerable in the event of Khamenei's death.[12]

Speculations about potential successors by commentators

The persons listed in this section are, according to analyses and comments made by various sources, potential candidates (the names are sorted by age):

Hassan Rouhani Hassan Khomeini Mohsen Araki Alireza Arafi
75 years, 57 days 51 years, 36 days c. 67–68 years c. 64–65 years
[2] [2][3][13][14][15] [3][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] [3]
Ebrahim Raisi Mojtaba Khamenei Sadeq Larijani Mohammad-Mahdi Mirbagheri
63 years, 25 days 54 years, 122 days 62 years, 302 days c. 62–63 years
[3][15][16][17][19][20][21][23][24][25][26][27] [3][13][16][18][20][23][24][25][26] [3] [13][15][17][18][20][25][26]

Deceased candidates

People mentioned below had been regarded as potential candidates during their lifetime.

Abbas Vaez-Tabasi Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi Ebrahim Amini Mohammad Yazdi Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi
1935–2016 1934–2017 1948–2018 1925–2020 1931–2020 1934–2021
[13] [2][13][14][28] [2][13][14][16][15][20][21][23][24][28][29] [2] [13] [13][14][20][26]

Further reading

  • Nader, Alireza; Bohandy, S. R. (2011). The Next Supreme Leader: Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran (PDF). Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation. ISBN 9780833051998.
  • Opinion Poll: Who Will Be Iran's Next Leader? (in Persian), BBC Persian, 22 February 2016

References

  1. 1 2 Sharafedin, Bozorgmehr (21 October 2014), Williams, Alison (ed.), "Iran's possible next Supreme Leader being examined: Rafsanjani", Reuters, archived from the original on 16 December 2015, retrieved 30 December 2015
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Kamali Dehghan, Saeed (31 October 2014), "When the time comes, who will succeed Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?", The Guardian, archived from the original on 20 December 2015, retrieved 30 December 2015
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Golkar, Saeid (Spring 2019), "Iran after Khamenei: Prospects for Political change", Middle East Policy, 26 (1): 75–88, doi:10.1111/mepo.12401, archived from the original on 2020-12-06, retrieved 2020-12-11
  4. ↑ https://www.radiozamaneh.com/511344/
  5. ↑ https://www.radiofarda.com/a/f2-iran-khamenei-people-presence-in-elections-shows-they-trust-establishment/27602646.html
  6. ↑ https://www.afintl.com/202311286530
  7. ↑ https://www.etemadonline.com/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-9/642747-%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D9%87%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A2%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B8%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%85-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A8%D8%B1%DB%8C
  8. ↑ https://www.iranintl.com/202311285374
  9. 1 2 3 "Is Iran's Next Supreme Leader Already Chosen?", Radio Farda, 18 June 2019, archived from the original on 18 June 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  10. ↑ "Reports And Denials On Succession Planning For Khamenei", Radio Farda, 14 February 2019, archived from the original on 14 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  11. ↑ https://www.radiofarda.com/a/israeli-military-intelligence-assessed-raisi-will-be-iran-s-leader-after-khamenei-s-death/32557680.html
  12. ↑ https://www.iranintl.com/en/202308112308
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sharafedin, Bozorgmehr (13 December 2015), "Who will be Iran's next Supreme Leader?", BBC, archived from the original on 3 February 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  14. 1 2 3 4 Bordbar, Behdad (15 July 2015), "Who will be Iran's next supreme leader?", Al-Monitor, archived from the original on 22 January 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  15. 1 2 3 4 Perteghella, Annalisa (18 May 2017), "The "Other" Election: After Khamenei Who Will Succeed?", Italian Institute for International Political Studies, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  16. 1 2 3 4 "Predicting the Unpredictable in Iranian Politics", Stratfor, 8 March 2017, archived from the original on 8 March 2017, retrieved 15 March 2017
  17. 1 2 3 Bozorgmehr, Najmeh (23 January 2020), "Iran: the unspoken battle to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei", The Financial Times, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  18. 1 2 3 Cunningham, Erin; Salim, Mustafa (21 March 2019), "Clues to the identity of Iran's next supreme leader in the back alleys of a holy city", The Washington Post, archived from the original on 8 November 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  19. 1 2 Dehghanpisheh, Babak (9 May 2017), Graff, Peter (ed.), "Iran Guards look beyond election to next supreme leader", Reuters, archived from the original on 9 May 2017, retrieved 30 December 2015
  20. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Vakil, Sanam; Rassam, Hossein (May–June 2017), "Iran's Next Supreme Leader: The Islamic Republic After Khamenei", Foreign Affairs, archived from the original on 2017-04-11, retrieved 30 December 2015
  21. 1 2 3 MacMillan, Arthur (10 February 2019), "Explainer: How Iran will pick its next supreme leader", The National, archived from the original on 10 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  22. ↑ Samadi, Mona (11 February 2020), "As Iran heads to the polls, could Rouhani be facing impeachment?", Middle East Institute, archived from the original on 23 February 2020, retrieved 30 December 2015
  23. 1 2 3 4 Abdo, Geneive (4 February 2019), "Iran's Battle Over Khamenei's Successor is Just Getting Started", Center for the National Interest, archived from the original on 6 February 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
  24. 1 2 3 Ganji, Akbar (4 August 2017), "Khamenei's New Potential Hard-line Successor", Radio Farda, archived from the original on 2 March 2020, retrieved 30 December 2015
  25. 1 2 3 Funes, Rossina; Gladin, Maeve (24 May 2019), "Khamenei is turning 80: Who will be next Iran's Supreme Leader?", University of Navarra, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  26. 1 2 3 4 "Analysis: Quest to find Iran's next Supreme Leader", BBC Monitoring, 5 December 2018, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  27. ↑ Bob, Yonah Jeremy (8 August 2019), "Has Ebrahim Raisi been tagged as Iran's next Supreme Leader?", The Jerusalem Post, archived from the original on 29 March 2020, retrieved 29 March 2020
  28. 1 2 Sadjadpour, Karim (2009), "Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran's Most Powerful Leader" (PDF), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, archived (PDF) from the original on 25 January 2016, retrieved 30 December 2015
  29. ↑ Lim, Kevjn (10 January 2019), "Iran's Next Supreme Leader Is Dead", Foreign Policy, archived from the original on 11 January 2019, retrieved 30 December 2015
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