Next United Kingdom general election in Wales
No later than 28 January 2025
All 32 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
  First party Second party Third party
  Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Rhun ap Iorwerth
Leader Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Rhun ap Iorwerth
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 4 April 2020 24 October 2022 16 June 2023
Last election 22 seats, 40.9% 14 seats, 36.1% 4 seats, 9.9%
Seats before 21 13 3
New constituencies to be used

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025. 32 seats will be up for election in Wales as the general election will occur after the recently completed boundary review took effect.

Election

Date

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliament Act 2011 meaning that the latest date that a new election could be called is before 17 December 2024, with election day no later than 28 January 2025.[1] The UK prime minister is also now able to call a general election.[2]

Number of Welsh MPs

As required by the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 as amended by the Parliamentary Constituency Act 2020, the number of seats in Wales must be reduced to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coinciding with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales is responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it must abide by this total.

The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021. [3] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period.[4] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies. [5]

Welsh MPs not seeking re-election

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MP Seat First elected Party Date announced
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022[6]
Hywel Williams Arfon 2001 Plaid Cymru 11 November 2022[7]
David Jones Clwyd West 2005 Conservative 20 September 2023[8]

Opinion polling

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Graphical summary

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales

Poll results

Dates
conducted		 Pollster Client Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Reform Green Others Lead
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,172 44% 22% 10% 9% 7% 6% 1% 22
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,051 50% 19% 12% 5% 8% 5% 2% 31
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,068 41% 24% 13% 7% 11% 4% 0% 17
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 46% 24% 10% 7% 10% 3% 1% 22
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 43% 22% 10% 7% 12% 4% 1% 21
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,064 49% 19% 10% 8% 9% 4% 1% 30
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,058 43% 23% 11% 8% 9% 4% 1% 20
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,251 44% 24% 12% 7% 9% 4% 0% 20
17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov WalesOnline 1,083 53% 19% 12% 4% 8% 3% 1% 34
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,081 49% 20% 14% 5% 9% 3% 1% 29
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,042 51% 18% 13% 4% 8% 4% 2% 33
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Survation 38 Degrees 6,012 51% 24% 13% 6% – – 6% 27
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,014 46% 23% 15% 5% 5% 3% 3% 23
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,020 41% 26% 16% 7% 4% 4% 2% 15
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Wales[9]
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,086 41% 26% 13% 7% 6% 4% 3% 15
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,009 41% 26% 13% 3% 7% 6% 3% 15
27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021 YouGov  ?  ? 39% 29% 17% 3% 5% – 7% 10
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 31% 15% 4% 6% 5% 2% 6
6 May 2021 Election to the Senedd[10]
2–4 May 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,071 37% 36% 14% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1
18–21 Apr 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,142 37% 33% 18% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4
9–19 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News 2,005 42% 33% 14% 3% – 3%
5%
UKIP on 3%
Other on 2%
 9
16–19 Mar 2021 YouGov Archived 23 March 2021 at the Wayback Machine ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,174 35% 35% 17% 4% 2% 3% 3% Tie
24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[11]
11–14 Jan 2021 YouGov Archived 19 January 2021 at the Wayback Machine ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,018 36% 33% 17% 3% 5% 4% 2% 3
26–30 Oct 2020 YouGov Archived 3 November 2020 at the Wayback Machine ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,013 43% 32% 13% 3% 5% 3% 2% 11
28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,110 41% 33% 15% 2% 4% 3% 2% 8
29 May – 1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,021 39% 35% 15% 5% 2% 3% 1% 4
3–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,008 34% 46% 11% 4% 3% 2% 0% 12
20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 1,037 36% 41% 13% 5% 3% 2% 1% 5
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 40.9% 36.1% 9.9% 6.0% 5.4% 1.0% 0.7% 4.8

Seat projections

Dates
conducted		 Pollster Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Notes
20 Oct 2022 People Polling 1,237 35 0 4 1 Assumes 40 Welsh seats. Seats will be reduced to 32.
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election – 22 14 4 0

See also

Notes

    References

    1. ↑ "When Is The Next UK General Election?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
    2. ↑ "The intention behind the repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act is to strengthen the executive and the Conservative Party". British Politics and Policy at LSE. 29 March 2022. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
    3. ↑ Hayward, Will (19 October 2022). "New plans to cut the number of Welsh MPs and create new constituencies". WalesOnline. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
    4. ↑ Masters, Adrian (19 October 2022). "Number of Welsh MPs to be cut from 40 to 32 under new proposals". ITV News. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
    5. ↑ "Wales' new parliamentary constituencies published". Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
    6. ↑ "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". BBC News. 11 February 2022.
    7. ↑ "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 11 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
    8. ↑ "David Jones: Former Welsh secretary to retire at next election". BBC News. 20 September 2023.
    9. ↑ "Wales Local Elections 2022". BBC News. 6 May 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
    10. ↑ "Welsh Parliament election 2021". BBC News. Archived from the original on 9 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
    11. ↑ "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
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