Vulnerability and disaster risk management

In one of his inputs as a lead researcher, Cardona examined the determinants of risk including, exposure and vulnerability. This assessment report highlighted that variations in risk and the impacts that occur when that risk is realized are largely driven by trends in vulnerability and exposure. Before formulating and putting the effective adaptation and disaster risk management strategies into action, it is essential to comprehend the multifaceted nature of vulnerability and exposure to identify how the weather and climatic events contribute to the occurrence of environmental catastrophe. The study also disclosed that vulnerability and exposure are dynamic, and dependent on many factors including, economic, social, institutional, geographic, and environmental.^[10]

In another study, he characterized vulnerability as an essential factor in understanding disaster risk management, and addressed its significance for the effective policy making process. He designed and proposed four indicators that identify country's progress in managing the risk: Disaster Deficit Index, Local Disaster Index, Prevalent Vulnerability Index, Risk Management Index. This system of indicators aims at reducing vulnerability and losses, recovering from disasters, prepare for catastrophes and disasters.^[11] Early on in 2004, he indicated a need for rethinking the concepts of vulnerability and risk from a holistic perspective in a research review study. He regarded the absence of a comprehensive and multidisciplinary evaluation of risk to be a significant factor in the decline of risk management effectiveness. He concluded that a holistic approach of risk can assess the dynamics of social system, and advance the risk management by incorporating effective measures that will lead to adequate reduction of risk by authorities and communities.^[12] Another study showed that MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe) can be used as a starting point for creating and differentiating vulnerability assessment indicators and criteria. As an integrative and holistic framework, it deals with various aspects that should be tended to while evaluating vulnerability with regards to natural hazards and climate change. The study also revealed a need for a multiple thematic approach for vulnerability assessment and examined key linkages between the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research.^[13]

Multi-hazard risk assessment

Cardona has extensively researched on probabilistic and holistic risk evaluation. In 2006, he proposed that a multidisciplinary approach is a pre-requisite for risk evaluation as it takes social fragility and lack of resilience in account in addition to economic losses. This evaluation approach combines a hard approach i.e., type of casualties and physical loss as well as a soft approach such as, social condition context including the capacity to absorb the effects, lack of preparedness, and political instability. It revealed that potential negative consequences of disaster are linked with the physical as well as social conditions and the latter can aggravate the impacts of former. The study also applied the proposed holistic approach for seismic risk evaluation to the cities of Bogota and Barcelona.^[14] He determined total risk level by the evaluation of seismic risk from a holistic perspective, and regarded it as useful in the decision-making process for risk reduction.^[15] Having discussed that, he examined the seismic vulnerability and risk analysis methods with regards to Spain that indicates a considerably high degree of vulnerability to earthquakes. He explored the seismic risk evaluation using the holistic approach, and presented the evidence of robustness of the said approach by considering physical exposure, social fragilities, as well as lack of resilience of urban area.^[16] In addition to that, he also conducted a research study in order to estimate the probabilistic seismic losses and the public economic resilience from a macroeconomic impact lens. The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) was employed, and it suggested a simple way to measure the potential losses regarding the fiscal exposure of a country to assess them as contingent liabilities.^[17]

Cardona has also contributed to the first time fully probabilistic mutli-hazard assessment at global level for the UNDRR’s Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2013, 2015, and 2017. The classification of globe was conducted with respect to set of seismogenetic areas, and Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distribution was assumed for the regions. This study results in the computation of probabilistic seismic hazard and the coarse-grain probabilistic risk computations were also performed.^[18] The Global Assessment Report presented risk maps and rankings at global level along with the calculated average annual loss in all countries with respect also to tsunami, tropical cyclone wind, storm surge and flood risk assessment.^[19]

The robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers was examined using the Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi). The research study was conducted in order to validate the robustness of the given indicator, and characterize the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities of the world was presented as well.^[20] The fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was also conducted for several cities using a comprehensive approach dependent on building-by-building and aerial images database. The vulnerability functions were assigned to the buildings, and risk evaluation were presented in a diverse set of metrics. These studies hold great significance for the stakeholders to identify risk, and factors of vulnerability that can be targeted to reduced or intervened.^[21] An approach was developed for the quantification of climate-related disaster risk and its use within decision making processes to support adaptation, based on extended catastrophe modeling theory to incorporate deep uncertainty through imprecise, non-stationary, probability metrics.^[22] The model was applied in Colombia covering floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, landslides, and wildfires. An exposure model was constructed covering country-wide portfolios of buildings with multiple uses, infrastructure, crops and ecosystems, accounting for a multisector approach.^[23] All this work has been based on the development, improvement, and use of the Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA); an open-source multi-hazard risk modeling platform.^[24] The main natural, governance, and public policy lab used by Cardona has been the city of Manizales in Colombia,^[25][26] where the conceptual frameworks, scientific and technical tools, and disaster risk management decision-making have been implemented in practice.^[27]

Books

• Seismic Vulnerability of Hospitals: Fundamentals for Engineers and Architects (1999) ISBN 9788489925335
• Seismic Risk and Its Prevention (2000) ISBN 9788493066215
• Holistic Estimation of Seismic Risk Using Complex Dynamic Systems (2001)
• Methodology for Evaluating Risk Management Performance (2004) ISBN 9788495999668
• “Ex post" Assessment of the State of Damage to Buildings Affected by an Earthquake (2005) ISBN 9788495999764
• Ancient Buildings and Earthquakes: Reducing the Vulnerability of Historical Built-up Environment by Recovering the Local Seismic Culture: Principles, Methods, Potentialities (2005) ISBN 9788872284032
• Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management (2007) ISBN 9789584402196
• Financial Disaster Risk Management (2009) ISBN 9789972787799
• A Guide to Measuring Urban Resilience: Principles, Tools and Practice of Urban Indicators (2015)
• World at Risk: Revealing latent disasters (2017): GAR Atlas Unveiling Global Disaster Risk

Selected articles

• Cardona, O. D. (2004). The need for rethinking the concepts of vulnerability and risk from a holistic perspective: a necessary review and criticism for effective risk management. In Mapping vulnerability: Disasters, Development and People, G. Bankoff, G.Frerks, D. Hilhorst (Ed), (pp. 37–51), Routledge.
• Cardona, O.D. (2011). Disaster Risk and Vulnerability: Notions and Measurement of Human and Environmental Insecurity. In: Coping with Glo bal Environmental Change, Disasters and Security-Threats, Challenges,Vulnerabilities and Risks , H.G. Brauch, U. Oswald Spring, C. Mesjasz, … & J. Birkmann (Eds), 107-121, Springer-Verlag.
• Cardona, O. D., Van Aalst, M. K., Birkmann, J., Fordham, M., Mc Gregor, G., Rosa, P., ... & Thomalla, F. (2012). Determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability. In Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (pp. 65–108). Cambridge University Press.
• Cardona, O. D., & Carreño, M. L. (2013). System of indicators of disaster risk and risk management for the Americas: Recent updating and application of the IDB-IDEA approach. In: Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: Toward disaster resilient societies, 2nd edn., ed. J. Birkmann, 251276.
• Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreño, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S., ... & Welle, T. (2013). Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework. Natural hazards, 67(2), 193-211.
• Cardona, O.D. (2016). Analfabetismo científico e incertidumbre: Implicaciones para una conciencia planetaria. En: Ciencia y Humanismo, Revista Aleph 50 años, Ruiz, C.E. (Ed.), pp 153–186. Universidad de Caldas.
• Bernal, G.A, Cardona, O.D., Marulanda, M.C., Carreño, M.L. (2021). Dealing with Uncertainty Using Fully Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision-Making. In: S. Eslamian, F. Eslamian (eds.), 299-340, Handbook of Disaster Risk Reduction for Resilience, Springer Nature.
• Cardona, O.D. (2022). Medir la verosimilitud del futuro: Predicciones para transformar el presente, en ALEPH Convergencia de saberes, Revista Aleph 200, Ruiz, C.E. (Ed.), pp 251–270. Ediciones Revista Aleph.