The People's Republic of China's persistent opposition to Taiwan's de facto autonomy has edged many times on the possibility and threat of a military invasion of the latter territories with the aim of achieving its vision of Chinese unification. Such threat has become increasingly tangible in the course of the 2020s decade, driven by the expressed willingness of mainland political leadership to pursue a military intervention, its parallel build-up of forces and recurrent exercises around Taiwan; as a consequence, Taiwan has also pursued forms of military preparation and international political alignment to discourage and possibly resist such intervention.[1][2]

The PLA exercises around Taiwan in 2022 were widely seem as signalling the willingness to pursue a military scenario and protest United States of America support of Taiwan status quo.[1]

People's Liberation Army current capacity of carrying out and winning such war is a matter of debate, ranging mostly on the analysis the it has the power to take the self-governing island, despite the heavy costs foreseen. The perceived failure of the Russian army in rapidly occupying Ukraine, turning into a protracted conflict with destabilizing repercussions inside Russia itself, is believed to weight on PRC decision making.[3][4][5]

International scenario

Positions from other countries

India

India's position before Taiwan's sovereignty and the PRC's military threat is considered key to the regional balance of power, and its policy to the Taiwan question has been evolving along with the military build-up and the growing affirmation of the possibility of invasion. It has been reportedly studying the threat such invasion would entail for the regional stability, economic relations and its own security. The consolidation of Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific and the immediate economic repercussions of the disruption to commodities logistics and electronic technology production are its main concerns in relation to Taiwan's security. Some analysts see India as an approximation to the United States of America as a visible positioning as well as a growing liability, amounting to the possibility of the country being dragged into the war.[6]

In August 2023, three retired army chiefs from India participated in a security conference in Taiwan, organized the ministry of foreign relations, and additionally held closed doors discussions with Taiwan ministries and its main military think thank, the Institute of National Defence and Security Research. In parallel, India’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Anil Chauhan, has reportedly initiated a study on the possibility of India being dragged into the war and the path the country should seek.[6]

References

  1. 1 2 "China reaffirms threat of military force to take Taiwan". Aljazeera. 10 August 2022. Retrieved 19 August 2023.
  2. ↑ "China's 'military threat' to Taiwan 'is much more credible than it was 20 years ago'". France24. 7 August 2022. Retrieved 19 August 2023.
  3. ↑ "China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price". CNN. 1 June 2022. Retrieved 19 August 2023.
  4. ↑ "War in Ukraine is a warning to China of the risks in attacking Taiwan". The Conversation. 16 August 2023. Retrieved 19 August 2023.
  5. ↑ "Can China impose military force against Taiwan?". Deutsch Welle. 25 March 2021. Retrieved 19 August 2023.
  6. 1 2 "CWhat should India do if China invades Taiwan?". Scroll. 25 March 2021. Retrieved 18 September 2023.


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