Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko meeting with Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu, 2022

The Russian military's presence in Belarus has increased greatly in size from its original deployments since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Russian military has been accused of assisting in the crackdown on the 2020–2021 Belarusian protests by supplying weapons and equipment to the Belarusian government and planning to invade the country in case the protests succeeded, and played a significant role in the early stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia currently maintains two military bases in Belarus, and is currently preparing to station tactical nuclear weapons in the country.

Following his victory in the 1994 Belarusian presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko began the process of militarily integrating Belarus and Russia as part of the Union State initiative, leading to a series of 1995 military agreements which provided two military bases to the Russian Armed Forces and gave them a role in guarding the Belarusian border. Belarus and Russia both partake in the Zapad exercises, and Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to intervene in the 2020–2021 Belarusian protests if he saw fit. During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces in Belarus launched the Kyiv offensive, which was ultimately unsuccessful, in part due to Belarusian sabotage of rail connections between Belarus and Ukraine.

Background

With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Armed Forces of Belarus was founded as an independent formation from the Soviet Armed Forces in late 1992.[1] The initial arrangement of Belarusian military independence from Russia remained uncertain, with the former Soviet command structure remaining in place as the United Armed Forces of the Commonwealth of Independent States until 15 June 1993.[2]

Upon his election as President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko began the implementation of military reforms. Further consternation was caused by the eastward expansion of NATO, which caused a shift in Belarusian defensive policy to be primarily anti-NATO and pro-Russian. Though not to the same extent as Belarus, Russia, too, was concerned by NATO's expansion. This climate, in addition to increasing moves towards the unification of Belarus and Russia, led to Russia playing a greater military role in Belarus.[3]

1995 agreements

Map of Russian military bases in Belarus, according to the 1995 agreements

On 6 January 1995, the governments of Belarus and Russia signed a series of agreements which provided for the leasing of military installations in Vileyka and Baranavichy to the Russian Armed Forces for a 25-year period (renewed in 2021).[4] An additional agreement on 21 February 1995 established provisions for mutual border protection and protection of Belarusian or Russian sovereignty, effectively bringing the Russian Armed Forces to Lithuania and Poland's eastern border. An extension to the agreement in November of the same year gave the Federal Security Service and State Security Committee of the Republic of Belarus (KGB) a joint role in providing protection for Belarus' borders and Russian troops in Belarus.[3]

Military exercises

Since 1999, the Russian and Belarusian militaries have also conducted military exercises on the territory of Belarus. Beginning with the Zapad 1999 exercise,[3] Belarus and Russia have jointly held military exercises, alternating between one another every two years since the 2011 Union Shield – 2011 exercises.[5] These exercises have at times reflected the Belarusian government's opponents, with Belarusian concerns about the Polish minority being reflected in Zapad 2009[6] and about the Belarusian opposition in the Zapad 2017 exercise with the existence of fictional states for the purpose of the exercises.[7]

2020–2021 Belarusian protests

Belarusian security forces during the 2020–2021 Belarusian protests, possibly carrying a Russian-supplied Saiga-12 semiautomatic rifle

Following the beginning of the 2020–2021 Belarusian protests, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko publicly requested assistance from Russia, saying, "Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and our native Ukraine, their leadership are ordering us to hold new elections. [...] If we follow their lead, we will go into a tailspin [...] we will perish as a people, as a state, as a nation."[8] In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he was willing to dispatch the Russian military to support Lukashenko, noting provisions within the 1995 agreements. These comments were condemned by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who called on Russia to allow for free elections in Belarus.[9] On 14 September 2020, following negotiations between the Belarusian and Russian governments, Russia's troop presence in Belarus was expanded, with undisclosed units of the Russian military being sent to places of permanent deployment within Belarus as "reserves".[10]

Sources from outside the Russian and Belarusian governments have made claims that the Russian military both has played and intended to play a much larger role in the crushing of the protests than officially reported. An investigation from Belarusian human rights organisation BYPOL reported the usage of the Russian-produced GM-94 grenade launcher, PK machine gun, and Saiga-12 semiautomatic rifle, as well as ammunition, by Belarusian security forces against protesters. Belarusian foreign policy expert Vlad Kobets and former United States Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor David J. Kramer have expressed the viewpoint that the Russian government supplied weapons and ammunition to Belarusian security forces knowing that they would be used against protesters.[11]

Further documents, published in 2022 by the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence and allegedly obtained from the Russian military, have detailed plans for the invasion of Belarus in case the protests were to succeed. According to the documents, the 1st Guards Tank Army[10] was to undertake the pacification of protests under the guise of a joint military exercise, before covering up the exercise with Belarusian participation in the Caucasus 2020 military exercise. The documents, while unverified, match a description to a scenario described by Lukashenko in a 2021 address.[12]

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Map of Russian military activities in Belarus during the Russian invasion of Ukraine

In the prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus became a staging ground for Russian forces preparing to invade Ukraine. The 5th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, the 98th Guards Airborne Division, and the Pacific Fleet's 155th Separate Marine Brigade were all deployed to Belarus, alongside the headquarters of the Eastern Military District.[13]

Following the beginning of the Russian invasion, Russian troops from Belarus partook in the Kyiv offensive, ultimately failing to take Ukraine's capital and withdrawing from northern Ukraine in April 2022.[14] Russian forces' efforts were hampered in part by resistance in Belarus, which led to the damaging of Belarusian rail lines and the serious disruption of Russian logistics.[15]

Stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus

Following a 2022 constitutional referendum, the Belarusian and Russian militaries have pursued policies of stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. On 26 March 2023, Putin announced that Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus under a nuclear sharing agreement, and that 9K720 Iskander missile launch systems had been transferred to Belarus. This decision came in spite of a joint Russian-Chinese declaration issued only days earlier calling on nuclear powers to withdraw all nuclear weapons from abroad.[16] Since the announcement, Belarusian units have been trained in the usage of Iskander systems,[17] and Russian ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov has stated that nuclear weapons would be stationed at undisclosed locations in western Belarus.[18]

Russia's stationing of nuclear weapons has been condemned by Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who stated that the deployment "grossly contradicts the will of the Belarusian people," and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who referred to it as a "step towards internal destabilisation". The Atlantic Council think tank has described the stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as demonstrating the status of Belarus as a puppet state.[19]

References

  1. ↑ "О Вооруженных Силах Республики Беларусь" ["On the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus"]. National Legal Internet Portal of the Republic of Belarus (in Russian). 3 November 1992. Archived from the original on 28 January 2015. Retrieved 26 April 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  2. ↑ Lynch, Dov (1999). Russian Peacekeeping Strategies in the CIS: The Case of Moldova, Georgia and Tajikistan. Springer. p. 76.
  3. 1 2 3 Szyszlo, Peter (June 2003). "Countering NATO Expansion: A Case Study of Belarus-Russia Rapprochement" (PDF). NATO Research Fellowship: 6–8. Archived (PDF) from the original on 3 March 2022. Retrieved 27 April 2023.
  4. ↑ "Belarus: Lukashenko Approves Negotiations to Extend Agreements on Russian Military Installations in Belarus". Stratfor. 24 August 2021. Archived from the original on 27 April 2023. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  5. ↑ "Следующие учения "Щит Союза" пройдут на территории Белоруссии" [Next Union Shield exercises to be held on Belarusian territory]. RIA Novosti (in Russian). 14 October 2011. Archived from the original on 5 June 2022. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  6. ↑ "Intel Brief: Poland On Edge Over Russian Drills". ISN ETH Zurich. 18 November 2009. Archived from the original on 19 March 2023. Retrieved 27 April 2023.
  7. ↑ "«Варожая Вейшнорыя» супадае з электаральнай картай Пазняка за 1994 год" ["Enemy Veyshnoria" coincides with Pazniak's 1994 electoral map]. Nasha Niva (in Belarusian). 29 August 2017. Archived from the original on 31 August 2017. Retrieved 1 September 2017.
  8. ↑ Roth, Andrew (16 August 2020). "'We will perish': embattled Lukashenko sends SOS to Putin". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 19 August 2022. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  9. ↑ Walker, Shaun (27 August 2020). "Belarus protests: Putin ready to send Lukashenko military support". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 19 December 2022. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  10. 1 2 "Украинская разведка: во время протестов 2020 года Россия готовила вторжение в Беларусь" [Ukrainian intelligence: during 2020 protests, Russia prepared invasion of Belarus]. Belsat TV (in Russian). 19 April 2022. Archived from the original on 27 April 2023. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  11. ↑ Kobets, Vlad; Kramer, David J. (4 March 2021). "Lukashenko's Brutal Crackdown Has Lethal Help From Moscow". Foreign Policy. Archived from the original on 13 April 2023. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  12. ↑ "Для падаўлення пратэстаў у 2020-м у Беларусь збіраліся накіраваць расійскія войскі пад легендай вучэнняў. Апублікаваны дакумент" [To suppress the 2020 Belarusian protests, it was planned to send Russian troops under the guise of an exercise -published document]. Nasha Niva (in Belarusian). 19 April 2022. Archived from the original on 27 April 2023. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  13. ↑ Batashvili, David (30 January 2022). "Geostrategic Activities". Rondeli Russian Military Digest. No. 118. Rondeli Foundation. Archived from the original on 5 February 2022. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  14. ↑ "Zhytomyr region is liberated from Russian troops - the head of the Regional Military administration". Ukrainska Pravda. 4 April 2022. Archived from the original on 8 August 2022. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  15. ↑ Sly, Liz (23 April 2022). "The Belarusian railway workers who helped thwart Russia's attack on Kyiv". The Washington Post. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  16. ↑ Gregory, James (26 March 2023). "Putin: Russia to station nuclear weapons in Belarus". BBC. Archived from the original on 25 April 2023. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  17. ↑ "Belarus units complete training on Russian tactical nuclear missile systems". Reuters. 22 April 2023. Archived from the original on 27 April 2023. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  18. ↑ Karmanau, Yuras (2 April 2023). "Russia to put nukes near Belarus' western border, envoy says". Associated Press. Archived from the original on 16 April 2023. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
  19. ↑ Liubakova, Hanna (10 April 2023). "Russian nukes in Belarus: Putin's creeping annexation continues". Atlantic Council. Archived from the original on 17 April 2023. Retrieved 26 April 2023.
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