SciCast is a collaborative platform for science and technology forecasting created by George Mason University with the help of a grant from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) as part of its ForeST (Forecasting in Science and Technology) program.[1][2][3] SciCast is currently (January 2016) on hiatus, after losing its main IARPA funding.[4] It was expected to re-open in the fall of 2015 with the support of a major Science & Technology sponsor, but this had not occurred by January 2016.

History

SciCast was an outgrowth of an earlier project called DAGGRE (Decomposition-Based Elicitation and Aggregation), also an IARPA project that implemented GMU economist Robin Hanson's idea of combinatorial prediction tech markets, and was a participant in the IARPA Aggregative Contingent Estimation tournament.[5][6]

The launch of SciCast itself was announced by Robin Hanson on January 3, 2014,[5] and the official announcements were made on January 10, 2014.[2] The launch received some news coverage in March 2014.[1][7]

Reception

SciCast has been covered in The Chicago Tribune repeatedly.[1][8]

The launch of SciCast was picked up by many blogs and websites of data analysis and technology trends.[9][10][11] SciCast's crowdsourced search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 airliner attracted the attention of some analysts.[12]

See also

References

  1. 1 2 3 Jury, Jessie (December 16, 2013). "SciCast Launch! Crowdsourced Forecasting Project from George Mason University". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  2. 1 2 "SciCast Crowdsources Forecasts on Science and Technology Events and Innovations". George Mason University Newsdesk. January 10, 2014. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  3. ↑ Matheny, Jason. "Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  4. ↑ "So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish!". The Official SciCast Blog. June 8, 2015. Retrieved July 12, 2015.
  5. 1 2 Hanson, Robin (January 3, 2014). "Announcing: SciCast". Overcoming Bias. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  6. ↑ Hanson, Robin (August 31, 2011). "Join The DAGGRE Team". Overcoming Bias. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  7. ↑ Roderick, Jennifer (March 30, 2014). "SciCast - Predict Tomorrow, Today. The Center for Science, Technology, and Security Policy (CSTSP) is working with a research group at George Mason University on a project – SciCast - to develop an online crowd-sourcing tool that can help predict future innovations in science and technology". American Association for the Advancement of Science. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  8. ↑ Jury, Jessie (April 29, 2014). "SciCast College Bowl Kicks off Today, April 29". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  9. ↑ Piatetsky, Gregory (January 16, 2014). "SciCast: a Crowdsourced Forecasting Platform for Science and Technology". KD Nuggets. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  10. ↑ Ed (January 22, 2014). "SciCast: Toward a better model for prediction". Security Curve. Archived from the original on January 29, 2014. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  11. ↑ Lozada, John (February 6, 2014). "Robin Hanson – SciCast, Prediction Markets & Future Day". Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  12. ↑ Piatetsky, Gregory (March 15, 2014). "SciCast Crowdsourcing search for Malaysian Air Flight MH370". Retrieved May 6, 2014.
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