TDF–OLA joint offensive
Part of the Tigray War and OLA insurgency
Date31 October – 1 December 2021
Location
Ethiopia
Result

Ethiopian victory

Belligerents
 Ethiopia

UFEFCF

Commanders and leaders
Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed[1] Tigray Region Tsadkan Gebretensae[2]
Units involved
Ethiopian National Defense Force
Amhara militias[3]		 Tigray Defense Forces
Oromo Liberation Army
Strength
Unknown Unknown
Casualties and losses
Unknown Unknown

The TDF–OLA joint offensive was a series of military battles starting in late October 2021 opposing a coalition of the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) against the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) in the context of the Tigray War and the OLA insurgency. The TDF and OLA took control of several towns south of Tigray Region in the direction of the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa in late October and early November.[4][2][5] Claims of war crimes included that of the TDF extrajudicially executing 100 youths in Kombolcha, according to federal authorities.[6][7]

Background

The Tigray War started with the November 2020 Northern Command attacks by Tigray Special Forces against the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) Northern Command, and continued with the ENDF, Amhara Region special forces and Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF) fighting against Tigrayan forces. All forces carried out numerous war crimes in addition to military battles.[8] By early October 2021, the TDF had regained control of much of Tigray Region and parts of Amhara Region, while the Ethiopian federal authorities maintained a blockade against humanitarian aid to Tigray Region, which Mark Lowcock, former head of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), viewed as a deliberate aim of "starv[ing] the population either into subjugation or out of existence". In mid-October, the ENDF launched a new military offensive against the TDF, aiming to retake control of Tigray Region and the TDF-controlled parts of Amhara Region.[6]

By 1 November 2021, the long-running Oromo conflict had led to the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) claiming to have taken military control of "several towns in western, central, and southern Oromia".[9]

Fall of Dessie and Kombolcha

In the few days leading to 2 November, the TDF took control of Dessie and Kombolcha.[4][7] The New York Times (NYT) saw the event as strategically significant, describing the two towns as being "strategically located ... on a highway running from north to south that has become the spine of a war that could determine the future of Ethiopia."[2]

OLA claimed to have taken control of Kamisee on 31 October.[10] The TDF and OLA confirmed a military alliance against the federal forces. The military actions of the TDF-OLA coalition were seen by the federal authorities as a threat to Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia.[2] On 5 November, the TDF and OLA announced a wider coalition, including seven smaller groups, that they named the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces.[11][12]

The EDF, which had strongly supported the ENDF in earlier phases of the Tigray War, appeared to be absent from late October/early November fighting. According to French historian and Horn of Africa expert Gérard Prunier, this is because the bulk of the Eritrean army in Tigray was defending the border with Sudan (to prevent Tigrayan rebels from potentially being supplied by Egypt, an opponent to Abiy Ahmed's government) and protecting Eritrea's own border with Tigray, thus leaving the defense of Addis Ababa down mostly to Amhara militias in the face of heavy losses sustained by Ethiopia's federal army.[3] The ENDF command and control structure was described as having "collapsed" by Tigrayan and Western officials.[2]

Mid-late November

On 16 November, the TDF claimed to have taken control of Ataye and Senbete in Oromia Zone in Amhara Region.[5] This area had been the site of clashes between ethnic Oromos and Amharas in the previous months.[13][14] On 19 November, the rebels were trying to take control of Shewa Robit,[15] and claimed control on 22 November.[16] On 25 November, the TDF was approaching Debre Sina and federal prime minister Abiy Ahmed announced that he would travel to the battlefront. He arrived at an unstated location on the battlefront on 23 November according to a spokesperson. The rebels aimed to cut off a supply line to Djibouti.[17][18]

By 28 November, Afar Special Forces regained control of Chifra. There were "dead bodies everywhere in the streets" and shops and mosques were destroyed. Residents fled and Chifra became a base for the Afar forces.[19]

According to Sveriges Radio, by late November, OLA had "surrounded" Addis Ababa from the west, south and south-east, and was in coalition with the TDF in the north-east.[20]

December: The Ethiopian Government counter offensive

PM Abiy Ahmed announced that he is joining the war, to lead from the front line, to defend the nation.[21] Since then, ENDF gained major territorial gains including liberation of Dessie and Kombolcha from TPLF forces.[22] On December 13, the Ethiopian government claimed their forces have controlled the main road from Woldia to Mekelle, while TPLF forces are still in control of Woldia.[23] On December 18, ENDF announced that they have liberated Woldia from TPLF forces. On the next day, December 19, deputy prime minister of Ethiopia Demeke Mekonnen visited the tourist attraction city of Lalibela, disproving TPLF's claim that they have controlled Lalibela town.[24] On December 20, Getachew Reda, spokesman of the TPLF announced they were withdrawing from several areas of northern Ethiopia including Amhara and Afar and retreating to Tigray, saying: "We decided to withdraw from these areas to Tigray. We want to open the door to humanitarian aid."[25]

War crimes

The Ethiopian authorities stated that the TDF had extrajudicially killed 100 youths in Kombolcha.[6][7]

Predictions

In late November 2021, a group of 34 non-governmental organizations and 31 individuals, calling themselves African Citizens;[26] Helen Clark (British politician), Michael Lapsley and David Alton;[27] and Genocide Watch predicted that a genocide, in which Tigrayan and Oromo internees and Amharas are massacred, could result from the offensive.[28] African Citizens saw the threat to take over Addis Ababa as a likely trigger for a genocide.[26]

References

  1. ↑ "Ethiopia PM says he will lead army 'from the battlefront'". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2021-11-22.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Walsh, Declan; Marks, Simon (2021-11-02). "Ethiopia Declares State of Emergency as Rebels Advance Toward Capital". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2021-11-16. Retrieved 2021-11-16.
  3. 1 2 "Gérard Prunier: en Éthiopie, "il faut multilatéraliser le changement de régime"" (in French). Radio France Internationale. 4 November 2021. Retrieved 23 November 2021.
  4. 1 2 Wintour, Patrick (2021-11-02). "Ethiopia declares state of emergency as Tigrayan rebels gain ground". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 2021-11-07. Retrieved 2021-11-07.
  5. 1 2 "Etiopia: forze tigrine annunciano la presa delle città di Ataye e Senbete, nella regione degli Amara" [Ethiopia: Tigrayan forces announce to the press the taking of Ataye and Senbete in the Amhara Region]. Agenzia Nova (in Italian). 2021-11-16. Archived from the original on 2021-11-16. Retrieved 2021-11-16.
  6. 1 2 3 Aboudouh, Ahmed (2021-10-15). "Fears for humanitarian crisis engulfing Tigray as Abiy Ahmed launches make or break war". The Independent. Archived from the original on 2021-11-02. Retrieved 2021-11-16.
  7. 1 2 3 "Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: PM Abiy calls on citizens to take up arms against rebels". BBC News. 2021-11-01. Archived from the original on 2021-11-14. Retrieved 2021-11-16.
  8. ↑ Tibebu, Israel (2021-11-03). "Report of the EHRC/OHCHR Joint Investigation into Alleged Violations of International Human Rights, Humanitarian and Refugee Law Committed by all Parties to the Conflict in the Tigray Region of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia" (PDF). EHRC, OHCHR. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-11-03. Retrieved 2021-11-03.
  9. ↑ "Oromo Liberation Army: On the ground with Ethiopian fighters". BBC News. 2021-11-01. Archived from the original on 2021-11-01. Retrieved 2021-11-02.
  10. ↑ "Tigrayan and Oromo forces say they have seized towns on Ethiopian highway". Thomson Reuters. 2021-11-01. Archived from the original on 2021-11-15. Retrieved 2021-11-16.
  11. ↑ Rynn, Simon; Hassen, Ahmed (2021-10-22). "Ethiopia: What Next?". Royal United Services Institute. Archived from the original on 2021-10-29. Retrieved 2021-11-06.
  12. ↑ "Nine anti-gov't groups team up as Ethiopia recalls ex-soldiers". Al Jazeera English. 2021-11-05. Archived from the original on 2021-11-06. Retrieved 2021-11-06.
  13. ↑ Tsegaye, Getahun (2021-06-16). "Analysis: Post-violence recovery in Oromo Special, North Shewa zones reel as thousands remain displaced". Addis Standard. Archived from the original on 2021-10-25. Retrieved 2021-11-16.
  14. ↑ "Etiopia. Abiy resiste grazie alle milizie Afarine fedeli al regime e un uso intelligente di raid aerei da parte dell'aviazione militare federale" [Ethiopia. Abiy resists thanks to Afar militias loyal to the regime and intelligent usage of federal military aviation air raids]. Farodi Roma (in Italian). 2021-11-20. Archived from the original on 2021-11-20. Retrieved 2021-11-21.
  15. ↑ "La France demande à certains de ses citoyens de quitter le territoire éthiopien" [France requests some of its citizens to leave Ethiopia]. RFI (in French). 2021-11-19. Archived from the original on 2021-11-20. Retrieved 2021-11-21.
  16. ↑ "Ethiopian PM vows to lead troops in war against rebels". The Guardian. 2021-11-22. Archived from the original on 2021-11-22. Retrieved 2021-11-23.
  17. ↑ Anna, Cara (2021-11-24). "Ethiopian leader called war 'epitome of hell.' Now he's back". Associated Press. Archived from the original on 2021-11-25. Retrieved 2021-11-26.
  18. ↑ Walsh, Declan (2021-11-25). "Ethiopian Leader Vows to Lead Troops as War Threatens to Widen". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2021-11-25. Retrieved 2021-11-26.
  19. ↑ "Ethiopian gov't forces in control of Chifra: State media". Al Jazeera English. 2021-11-28. Archived from the original on 2021-11-29. Retrieved 2021-11-29.
  20. ↑ Myrenberg, Richard (2021-11-29). "Oromo-gerillan: Abiy är som en döende häst" [Oromo guerillas: Abiy is like a dying horse]. Sveriges Radio (in Swedish). Archived from the original on 2021-11-29. Retrieved 2021-11-29.
  21. ↑ Smith, Elliot (24 November 2021). "Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed joins frontline as conflict against rebels intensifies". CNBC. Retrieved 21 December 2021.
  22. ↑ "Ethiopian forces recapture two key towns from Tigrayan forces".
  23. ↑ "Ethiopian Army Regains Control of 6 Towns, Cuts Woldia-Mekelle Highway | ZeHabesha Ethiopian News | Latest News for All". 13 December 2021.
  24. ↑ "Ethiopian military again controls religious town of Lalibela - media". Reuters. 20 December 2021.
  25. ↑ "Ethiopia's rebels announce retreat to Tigray".
  26. 1 2 Mustapha, Ogunsakin (2021-11-26). "Group warns UN over imminent genocide in Ethiopia". Citizens' Gavel. Archived from the original on 2021-11-27. Retrieved 2021-11-27.
  27. ↑ Clark, Helen; Lapsley, Michael; Alton, David (2021-11-26). "The warning signs are there for genocide in Ethiopia – the world must act to prevent it". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 2021-11-27. Retrieved 2021-11-27.
  28. ↑ Ross, Eric; Hill, Nat (2021-11-20). "Genocide Emergency: Ethiopia". Genocide Watch. Archived from the original on 2021-11-23. Retrieved 2021-11-23.
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