2006 United States Senate election in Arizona
November 7, 2006
 
Nominee Jon Kyl Jim Pederson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 814,398 664,141
Percentage 53.34% 43.50%
County results
Kyl:      50–60%      60–70%
Pederson:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Jon Kyl
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Kyl
Republican

The 2006 United States Senate election in Arizona was held November 7, 2006. The primary elections were held September 12. Incumbent Republican Jon Kyl won re-election to a third term. This election was the only time since 1970 that an incumbent Republican Senator from Arizona was re-elected to this seat.

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Jon Kyl, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1995

Results

Republican primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jon Kyl (incumbent) 297,636 99.5%
Republican Write-ins 155 0.05%
Total votes 297,791 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jim Pederson 214,455 100.00%
Total votes 214,455 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Results

Libertarian primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Richard Mack 3,311 100.00%
Total votes 3,311 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

The incumbent, Republican Jon Kyl, was elected to the Senate in 1994 and was re-elected to a second term in 2000; prior to that he spent eight years in the US House of Representatives. Kyl's Democratic opponent for the general election was wealthy real-estate developer Jim Pederson, who served as the Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005. During his tenure, Pederson spent millions of dollars of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to elect Janet Napolitano as Governor of Arizona. The deadline for signing petition signatures to appear on the September 12, 2006, primary ballot was June 14, 2006.

Not long after the 2004 election, Pederson's name began being mentioned as a potential Senate candidate for the 2006 race. On July 28, 2005, Pederson formally stepped down as Chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, further fueling those speculations. In early September 2005, an e-mail was sent from the Arizona Democratic Party's website, inviting people to an announcement by Pederson on September 7. In an anticlimactic move, an e-mail was sent out shortly after the first saying that the announcement would be postponed due to Hurricane Katrina. It was requested that any money that would be donated to Pederson's campaign at the announcement be directed to relief efforts instead. Similarly, a meeting in Arizona of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) was scheduled for around the same time. It was also postponed and the same request was made involving donations. On September 7, 2005, Pederson filed to run for the U.S. Senate. On September 14, 2005, Pederson formally announced his intention to run, in his hometown of Casa Grande.

Although Kyl started the campaign with a sizable lead in most polls, the gap quickly narrowed, especially after Pederson released his array of ads.

Debates

Fundraising

The race was one of the most expensive in Arizona history. As of May 7, 2006, Kyl's campaign had raised over $9 million, primarily from private donations from Oil and Energy companies and large fundraising dinners. Pederson's campaign had raised over $5 million, primarily through a dinner event with former President Clinton and a $2 million donation from Pederson.[2]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[3] Lean R November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[4] Likely R November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[5] Lean R November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[6] Likely R November 6, 2006

Endorsements

Jim Pederson (D)
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Source Date Kyl (R) Pederson (D) Mack (L)
Arizona State University October 28, 2005 50% 28%
Rasmussen Archived December 28, 2005, at the Wayback Machine December 26, 2005 50% 30%
Behavior Research Center January 22, 2006 55% 26%
SurveyUSA February 27, 2006 57% 33%
Zogby/WSJ March 30, 2006 47% 42%
Rasmussen April 4, 2006 56% 33%
Arizona State University/KAET-TV April 20–23, 2006 42% 31%
Rasmussen April 30, 2006 51% 35%
SurveyUSA May 8, 2006 52% 37%
Behavior Research Center May 18, 2006 40% 33%
Rasmussen June 11, 2006 52% 35%
Arizona State University/KAET-TV June 20, 2006 43% 29%
Zogby/WSJ June 21, 2006 48% 42%
SurveyUSA July 17, 2006 52% 40%
Zogby/WSJ July 24, 2006 50% 40%
Behavior Research Center July 26, 2006 45% 27%
Rasmussen Archived September 22, 2006, at the Wayback Machine August 2, 2006 53% 34%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 48% 44%
Arizona State University/KAET-TV August 29, 2006 46% 36%
Rasmussen Archived September 2, 2006, at the Wayback Machine August 31, 2006 52% 35%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) September 7, 2006 47% 41%
Zogby/WSJ September 11, 2006 50% 44%
Rasmussen September 18, 2006 50% 39%
SurveyUSA September 19, 2006 48% 43% 2%
Arizona State University/KAET-TV September 26, 2006 49% 38% 2%
Zogby/WSJ September 28, 2006 51% 44%
Behavior Research Center October 4, 2006 40% 34%
Northern Arizona University October 17, 2006 49% 33% 2%
SurveyUSA October 17, 2006 48% 43% 4%
Rasmussen October 19, 2006 51% 42%
Zogby/WSJ October 19, 2006 50% 44%
Arizona State University/KAET-TV October 24, 2006 47% 41% 3%
Zimmerman/Marketing Intelligence Archived November 3, 2006, at the Wayback Machine October 25–30, 2006 46% 41% 4%
SurveyUSA November 3, 2006 53% 40% 4%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy November 5, 2006 49% 41% 3%

Results

Pederson lost the election by 9.84% or 150,257 votes, despite Democratic Incumbent Governor Janet Napolitano easily being re-elected and winning every county statewide. While Pederson lost it was still notable, as it was the worst performance of Senator Kyl's career. Kyl did well as Republicans usually do in Maricopa County home of Phoenix. Pederson did well in Pima County home of Tucson which tends to support Democrats. Kyl was called the winner by CNN at around 8 P.M. local time, 11 P.M. EST. Pederson called Senator Kyl and conceded defeat at 9:02 P.M. local time, 12:02 A.M. EST.

2006 United States Senate election in Arizona[10]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Jon Kyl (incumbent) 814,398 53.34% -25.98%
Democratic Jim Pederson 664,141 43.50% +43.50
Libertarian Richard Mack 48,231 3.16% -1.90%
Write-ins 13 0.00%
Majority 150,257 9.84% 61.66%
Turnout 1,526,783
Republican hold Swing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

  1. 1 2 3 "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ↑ Our Campaigns - News - Kyl may seek an exemption to add cash to his war chest - Aug 23, 2006
  3. ↑ "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  4. ↑ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  5. ↑ "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  6. ↑ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  7. ↑ "Jim Pederson (Senate AZ) | WesPAC". Archived from the original on November 4, 2006.
  8. ↑ "Endorsements". Archived from the original on November 1, 2006.
  9. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign - Working for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Equal Rights - Out to Win - Election 2006". Archived from the original on October 26, 2006.
  10. ↑ Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
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