2020 United States presidential election in Arizona
November 3, 2020
Turnout79.9% (of registered voters) Increase
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,672,143 1,661,686
Percentage 49.36% 49.06%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[1] Arizona voters chose 11 electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump of Florida and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian nominees were also on the ballot.

Trump carried Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, and it was considered a vital battleground in this election. The state's bitterly competitive nature was attributed to diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population.[3][4] Maricopa County was seen as vital to either candidate's chances in the state–only one presidential candidate has ever won the state without carrying it.[5] Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996, and only the second since Harry S. Truman in 1948. He is also the first Democrat to win Maricopa County since Truman,[6] with a margin of 2.2%, or 45,109 votes.[7] High turnout among Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters was also seen as vital. Polls of the state throughout the campaign generally showed a Biden lead, albeit by a slender margin. Prior to election day, 11 of the 16 news organizations considered that Arizona was leaning towards Biden; the other five considered it a toss-up.

Biden ultimately won the state by some 10,000 votes over Trump, a 0.3% margin, marking the first time a Democratic presidential nominee carried Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996, and only the second time since Harry S. Truman's 1948 victory. Arizona was the second-closest state in 2020, the only closer state being Georgia, marking the first time since 1948 that the Democratic nominee won both Sun Belt states in the same presidential election (Clinton won each state in separate elections). This was also the first time since 1932 that a non-incumbent Democrat carried Arizona in a presidential election, or that an incumbent Republican lost the state. Arizona weighed in as 4.15 percentage points more Republican than the nation in 2020.

After the election, the Republican-majority Arizona Senate launched a Maricopa County-based publicly-funded investigation into the election fraud alleged by Trump and his supporters. The controversial audit, completed in September 2021, found no evidence to support claims of significant election irregularities. Additionally, the count taken in audit gave Biden a greater lead of 360 votes over Trump than what the earlier, certified results had given.[8]

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

On September 9, 2019, the Arizona Republican Party became one of several state Republican parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[9] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[10][11][12]

Of the 57 total delegates, 3 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts, 10 to at-large delegates, and another 3 to pledged party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates). 17 bonus delegates were also allocated.

The state party still formally conducted the higher meetings in their walking subcaucus-type delegate selection system. The legislative district and county conventions were held from February 8 to April 11 to select delegates to the Arizona State Republican Convention. At the Arizona State Republican Convention, which took place on May 9, the state party formally bound all 57 of its national pledged delegates to Trump. A May 15 email from the Arizona GOP stated that "every one of our ... delegates ... elected pledged to support Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party's 2020 nominees for President and Vice President!"[10]

The 54 pledged delegates Arizona sent to the national convention were joined by 3 pledged PLEO delegates, consisting of the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and chairman of the Arizona Republican Party.

Democratic primary

The Arizona Democratic primary took place on March 17, 2020, on the same date as the Democratic primaries in Florida and Illinois. Former Vice President Joe Biden won the primary with 43.7% of the vote and 38 delegates, running ahead of Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, who received 32.7% of the vote and 29 delegates. No other candidates received any delegates and the only other candidates to receive more than 1% of the vote were Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts, with 5.8%, and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with 4.1%. Both Warren and Buttigieg withdrew prior to the contest. The other candidates on the ballot comprised a collective 1.2% of the vote.[13]

Biden won 13 of 15 counties in the state of Arizona, with Sanders winning Coconino (home to Flagstaff) and Yuma (home to its eponymous city) counties.

The official vote totals reported by the Arizona Secretary of State added up to 86.7%, as the remaining 13.3% of the vote was composed of candidates whose individual vote totals were not reported.[13]

Popular vote share by county
Map legend
  •   Biden – 40–50%
  •   Biden – 50–60%
  •   Sanders – 30–40%
  •   Sanders – 40–50%
2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary[14]
Candidate Votes  % Delegates[15]
Joe Biden 268,029 43.7% 38
Bernie Sanders 200,456 32.7% 29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) 35,537 5.8% 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 24,868 4.1% 0
Tulsi Gabbard 3,014 0.5% 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,921 0.3% 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 754 0.1% 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 668 0.1% 0
Roque De La Fuente III 628 0.1% 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 242 0.0% 0
Henry Hewes 208 0.0% 0
Michael A. Ellinger 184 0.0% 0
Total 536,509[lower-alpha 1] 86.7%[lower-alpha 2] 67

†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

General election

Campaign

February 19, 2020: (from left) Speaker of the Arizona House Russell Bowers, Governor Doug Ducey, Congresswoman Debbie Lesko, President Trump and Navajo vice president Myron Lizer at a rally at Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Phoenix.

Arizona was a heavily contested state throughout the election. Once a reliably Republican state, it has trended more Democratic in recent years, with Trump winning it by just 3.5% in 2016. Compared to past Republicans, Trump's performance was historically weak: Mitt Romney won it with a 9.0% margin in 2012 over Barack Obama,[17] John McCain by 8.5% in 2008 also against Obama,[18] and George W. Bush by 10.5% in 2004 against John Kerry.[19] Arizona was one of just ten states to swing more Democratic in 2016, and its 5.5 percentage point swing was the fourth largest in the country.[20] The swing mirrored a nationwide pattern where suburban voters, formerly the principal Republican voting base, swung deep into the Democratic column. Arizona's leftward swing was also credited to a rapidly growing Hispanic population.

Both candidates spent massive amounts of money on advertising, though Biden outspent Trump 2–1.[21]

October 25, 2020: Campaign rally for Joe Biden at Corona Ranch and Rodeo Grounds in Phoenix, featuring Cher.

Trump visited Arizona significantly more than his opponent, holding 4 rallies in just one week, compared to Biden, who only visited the state once.[22][23] Trump favored large rallies with thousands of people in attendance, oftentimes without masks and contrary to the advice of health officials.[24]

At his rallies, Trump campaigned with the Republican Governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, as well as Republican Senator Martha McSally, in a bid to help her win against Democrat Mark Kelly in the 2020 United States Senate special election.[25]

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[26] Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections[27] Tilt D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Lean D (flip)
Politico[29] Tossup
RCP[30] Tossup
CNN[31] Tossup
The Economist[32] Lean D (flip)
CBS News[33][lower-alpha 3] Tossup
270towin[34] Tossup
ABC News[35] Lean D (flip)
NPR[36][lower-alpha 4] Tossup
NBC News[37] Tossup
538[38] Lean D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
270 to Win October 22 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.0% 45.8% 6.2% Biden +2.2
Real Clear Politics October 25 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.9% 47.0% 5.1% Biden +0.9
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.7% 46.1% 5.2% Biden +2.6
Average 48.2% 46.3% 5.5% Biden +1.9

2020 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Howie
Hawkins
Green		 Other Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 2 610 (LV) ± 4.5% 47%[lower-alpha 7] 50% 1% 0% 2%[lower-alpha 8] –
47%[lower-alpha 9] 49% - - 2%[lower-alpha 10] 1%
48%[lower-alpha 11] 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 12] –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2 4,278 (LV) ± 2.5% 46%[lower-alpha 13] 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 409 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 50% 2% - – 1%
Marist College/NBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 717 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 48% - - 3% 1%
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 1 360 (LV) ± 7.1% 46% 51% 4% - – –
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1 1,195 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 50% 2% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 14] –
AtlasIntel Oct 30–31 641 (LV) ± 4% 50.4% 48.1% - - 1.5%[lower-alpha 15] –
Emerson College Oct 29–31 732 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% - - 6%[lower-alpha 16] –
Morning Consult Oct 22–31 1,059 (LV) ± 3% 46% 48% - - – –
Data Orbital Archived November 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 28–30 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45.3% 45.9% 3% - 6%[lower-alpha 17] 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 26–30 1,253 (LV) ± 3% 43% 49% 3% - 1%[lower-alpha 18] 5%[lower-alpha 19]
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll Oct 25–30 910 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 45% 3% - 4%
CNN/SSRS Archived November 22, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 23–30 892 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 50% 3% - 1%[lower-alpha 20] 1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 27–29 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% - - 3%[lower-alpha 21] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 26–29 889 (LV) – 46% 50% 2% 0% 1% 2%
Gravis Marketing Oct 26–28 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 48% - - – 8%
Trafalgar Group Oct 25–28 1,002 (LV) ± 3% 49% 46.5% 2.1% - 1.7%[lower-alpha 22] 0.7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28 5,687 (LV) – 46% 52% - - – –
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 21–27 714 (LV) ± 4.2% 47%[lower-alpha 7] 47% 2% 0% 3%[lower-alpha 23] –
46%[lower-alpha 9] 48% - - 3%[lower-alpha 24] 2%
Swayable Oct 23–26 304 (LV) ± 7.2% 44% 52% 3% - – –
Justice Collaborative Project Archived November 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] Oct 22–25 874 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 49% - - – 5%
OH Predictive Insights Oct 22–25 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 49% 3% - 1%[lower-alpha 25] 1%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research		 Oct 17–25 725 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 26] 3%
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) Oct 21–24 729 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 52% - - 2% 1%
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune Oct 15–24 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 50% - - – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[upper-alpha 2] Oct 19–22 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 46%[lower-alpha 27] 46% 4% - 2%[lower-alpha 28] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 14–21 658 (LV) ± 4.4% 46%[lower-alpha 7] 50% 1% - 2%[lower-alpha 29] –
46%[lower-alpha 9] 49% - - 3%[lower-alpha 24] 2%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20 1,066 (LV) ± 3% 48% 47% - - – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 18–19 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% - - 3%[lower-alpha 21] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19 232 (LV)[lower-alpha 30] – 45% 51% - - – –
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Archived November 25, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 14–19 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46%[lower-alpha 7] 47% - - 3%[lower-alpha 21] 5%
44%[lower-alpha 31] 49% - - 3%[lower-alpha 21] 5%
47%[lower-alpha 32] 45% - - 3%[lower-alpha 21] 5%
Data Orbital Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 16–18 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 47% 3% - 5%[lower-alpha 33] 2%
YouGov/CBS Oct 13–16 1,074 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 49% - - 3%[lower-alpha 34] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 7–14 667 (LV) ± 4.3% 47%[lower-alpha 7] 49% 1% 0% 2%[lower-alpha 35] –
46%[lower-alpha 9] 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 10] 3%
Monmouth University Oct 11–13 502 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 50% 2% - 1%[lower-alpha 36] 4%
502 (LV) 44%[lower-alpha 37] 51% - - 2% –
47%[lower-alpha 38] 49% - - 1% –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13 750 (LV) – 45%[lower-alpha 30] 48% 1% 0% – –
Morning Consult Oct 2–11 1,144 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 49% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10 720 (LV) – 46%[lower-alpha 30] 48% 1% 0% – –
Trafalgar Group Oct 6–8 1,087 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 44% 2% - 2%[lower-alpha 26] 5%
OH Predictive Insights Oct 4–8 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 45%[lower-alpha 7] 49% 4% - 0%[lower-alpha 39] 3%
47%[lower-alpha 40] 50% - - 0%[lower-alpha 39] 3%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Oct 4–7 727 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 49% 1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 41] 6%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 7 633 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 48% - - 2%[lower-alpha 10] 4%
Latino Decisions/Democrats for Education Reform[upper-alpha 3] Sep 28 – Oct 6 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% - - – 5%
Basswood Research/American Action Forum[upper-alpha 4] Oct 3–5 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 2% - – 3%
Data Orbital Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 3–5 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 48% 3% - 3%[lower-alpha 42] 4%
HighGround Inc. Sep 28 – Oct 5 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 46% - - 4%[lower-alpha 43] 5%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4 296 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 1–3 655 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 49% 3% – 1%[lower-alpha 18] 6%[lower-alpha 19]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) Oct 1–3 604 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 50% - - 3% 1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Sep 23 – Oct 2 1,045 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 45% - - 10% –
Suffolk University Sep 26–30 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 50% 1% - 1%[lower-alpha 25] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30 7,100 (LV) – 47% 51% - - – 2%
Strategies 360/Smart and Safe Arizona[upper-alpha 5] Sep 24–29 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 49% - - 2%[lower-alpha 44] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc/Center for American Greatness[upper-alpha 2] Sep 25–28 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 47% - - – –
Data for Progress (D) Sep 23–28 808 (LV) ± 3.4% 45%[lower-alpha 7] 49% 1% 0% – 4%
46%[lower-alpha 40] 50% - - – 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–26 871 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 47% 1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 41] 6%
Data For Progress[upper-alpha 6] Sep 15–22 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% - - – 10%
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20 262 (LV) – 43% 49% - - – –
ABC/Washington Post Sep 15–20 579 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 48% - - 2%[lower-alpha 45] 1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[upper-alpha 7] Sep 17–19 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 53% - - – –
Data Orbital Sep 14–17 550 (LV) – 47% 49% - - – –
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–17 565 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 47% - - 2%[lower-alpha 10] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–16 855 (LV) ± 3.4% 42% 47% 1% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 41] 8%
Monmouth University Sep 11–15 420 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 48% 4% - 1%[lower-alpha 46] 3%
420 (LV) 46%[lower-alpha 47] 48% - - 3% 3%
47%[lower-alpha 48] 47% - - 3% 3%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 10–15 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 40% 49% 4% - 1%[lower-alpha 18] 6%[lower-alpha 19]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) Sep 10–13 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 49% - - 4% 2%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report Aug 29 – Sep 13 1,298 (RV) ± 3% 40% 45% - - 4%[lower-alpha 49] 11%
Gravis Marketing Sep 10–11 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 50% - - – 2%
YouGov/CBS Sep 9–11 1,106 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 47% - - 3%[lower-alpha 34] 6%
OH Predictive Insights Sep 8–10 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 52% - - – 5%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% - - 1%[lower-alpha 50] 4%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 901 (LV) ± (2–4%) 46%[lower-alpha 51] 49% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6 470 (LV) – 45% 49% - - 6%[lower-alpha 52] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 4 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 48% 0% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 53] 6%
FOX News Aug 29 – Sep 1 772 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% 3% - 1%[lower-alpha 54] 6%
858 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 49% 3% - 3%[lower-alpha 55] 6%
Basswood Research/American Action Forum[upper-alpha 4] Aug 29–31, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48%[lower-alpha 7] 47% 1%[lower-alpha 56] 2% – 2%
49%[lower-alpha 40] 48% - - – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31 6,456 (LV) – 52% 47% - - – 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 943 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23 344 (LV) – 47% 49% - - – –
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16–18 856 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 47% 1% 1% 3%[lower-alpha 57] 10%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 947 (LV) ± (2–4%) 47% 45% - - – –
Emerson College Aug 8–10 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 47%[lower-alpha 27] 53% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9 428 (LV) – 44% 45% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Aug 5–8 1,013 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 3% - 1%[lower-alpha 58] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 3–4 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% - - – –
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[upper-alpha 8] Aug 2–4 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 48% - - – 2%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2 1,215 (LV) – 43%[lower-alpha 7] 45% 2% 1% – 10%
44%[lower-alpha 40] 47% - - – 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31 4,995 (LV) – 51% 47% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 24–26 365 (LV) – 45% 47% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 908 (LV) ± 3.3% 42%[lower-alpha 51] 49% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 16–25 – (LV)[lower-alpha 59] – 43% 49% - - – –
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24 873 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 49% - - 4%[lower-alpha 60] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–23 858 (LV) – 38% 46% 2% 1% 3%[lower-alpha 57] 11%
NBC News/Marist College Jul 14–22 826 (RV) ± 4.1% 45% 50% - - 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[upper-alpha 9] Jul 17–18 960 (RV) – 45% 49% - - – 6%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[upper-alpha 10] Jul 11–16 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 49% - - – 6%
Morning Consult Jul 6–15 – (LV)[lower-alpha 59] – 45% 47% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12 345 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10 1,087 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% - - 4%[lower-alpha 61] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Jul 6–7 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% - - 0%[lower-alpha 39] 7%
Morning Consult Jun 26 – Jul 5 – (LV)[lower-alpha 59] – 42% 48% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30 2,365 (LV) – 52% 46% - - – 2%
Data Orbital Jun 27–29 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% - - 3.3%[lower-alpha 62] 4.2%
Morning Consult Jun 16–25 – (LV)[lower-alpha 59] – 43% 47% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28 311 (LV)[lower-alpha 30] – 44% 51% - - – –
Gravis Marketing/OANN Jun 27 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 45% - - – 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–17 865 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 43% 2% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 63] 13%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Jun 8–16 650 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% - - 4%[lower-alpha 64] 8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Jun 13–15 1,368 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 49% - - 5%[lower-alpha 65] 1%
Morning Consult Jun 6–15 – (LV)[lower-alpha 59] – 44% 47% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14 201 (LV)[lower-alpha 30] – 44% 45% - - 5%[lower-alpha 66] –
Morning Consult May 27 – Jun 5 – (LV)[lower-alpha 59] – 47% 45% - - – –
FOX News May 30 – Jun 2 1,002 (RV) ± 3% 42% 46% - - 6%[lower-alpha 67] 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31 329 (LV)[lower-alpha 30] – 45% 44% - - 9% 2%
Morning Consult May 17–26 784 (LV) – 47%[lower-alpha 51] 45% - - – –
Morning Consult May 16–25 – (LV)[lower-alpha 59] – 46% 46% - - – –
HighGround Inc. May 18–22 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 47% - - 4%[lower-alpha 68] 4%[lower-alpha 19]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 45% - - 3%[lower-alpha 69] 10%
OH Predictive Insights May 9–11 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 50% - - 1%[lower-alpha 25] 6%
Morning Consult May 6–15 – (LV)[lower-alpha 59] – 47% 45% - - – –
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Archived May 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Apr 13–16 500 (LV) – 46% 47% - - 2% 5%
OH Predictive Insights Apr 7–8 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52% - - – –
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% - - 1% 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 46% - - 2% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 50% - - – 8%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3 666 (V) – 46% 47% - - – 6%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 42% - - – 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Team McSally/Politico[upper-alpha 11] Jan 22–24 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 45% - - – 6%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4 760 (V) – 46% 46% - - – 8%

2019 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 44% 0%[lower-alpha 39] 10%
Emerson College Oct 25–28 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 50% – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–23 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 49% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 42% 12% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% – 12%
Fabrizio Ward LLC Jul 29–31 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 45% – 4%
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 7, 2019, at the Wayback Machine May 1–2 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 29, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–13 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% – 7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Michael
Bloomberg (D)		 Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% – 11%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 40% 0%[lower-alpha 39] 10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% – 12%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 44% – 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 43% 0%[lower-alpha 39] 12%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 38% – 18%
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 7, 2019, at the Wayback Machine May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% – 16%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Other Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 38% 17% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 36% – 18%
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 7, 2019, at the Wayback Machine May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% – 13%
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 29, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 40% – 11%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Amy
Klobuchar (D)		 Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Undecided
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 7, 2019, at the Wayback Machine May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 45% 2% 6%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 43% 4% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% – 10%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% – 16%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 666 (V) – 47% 46% – 7%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 44% – 10%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 46% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 34% 1%[lower-alpha 25] 18%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 45% 37% 15% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 34% – 22%
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 7, 2019, at the Wayback Machine May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% – 16%
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 29, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 37% – 13%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% – 14%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 45% – 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 41% 1%[lower-alpha 25] 12%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 50% – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 42% 10% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 43% – 13%
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 7, 2019, at the Wayback Machine May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
OH Predictive Insights Archived May 29, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 38% – 12%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 12] Jan 24–25, 2019 682 (V) ± 3.8% 46% 50% 4%

Fundraising

According to the Federal Election Commission, in 2019 and 2020, Joe Biden and his interest groups raised $9,284,978.20,[39] Donald Trump and his interest groups raised $15,506,263.10,[40] and Jo Jorgensen raised $29,078.65[41] from Arizona-based contributors.

Candidate ballot access

Independent candidates who wished to run were required to submit a nomination petition and financial disclosure form between 120 and 90 days before the primary election. A valid nomination petition required signatures from 3% of unaffiliated registered voters in Arizona as of March 1, 2020. However, the signatories may be of any political party or unaffiliated as long as they have not already signed a petition for a candidate registered in a political party who intends to run in the same election. Petitions may be physical or electronic; in 2012, Arizona introduced E-Qual, an online nominating petition platform.[42]

In-addition, write-in candidates were required to file a nomination paper (including the candidate's name and signature; residence and post office address; age and date of birth; and the length of time the candidate has lived in Arizona) and financial disclosure form by 5:00 p.m. on the 40th day before the election in which the candidate is running – in this case, September 24 – for their votes to be counted. Sore-loser laws prevent candidates who lost a primary election from running in the general election as a write-in candidate. Write-in candidates also may not run if they didn't receive enough signatures to attain ballot access while filing for the primary election or if the candidate did not receive enough signatures to gain ballot access in the general election.[42] The following candidates were given write-in access:[43]

Electoral slates

Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, rather than directly for president and vice president. Arizona is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. In the state of Arizona, a faithless elector's vote is voided and replaced, but the faithless elector is not penalized.[44][45]

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2020, to cast their votes for president and vice president. All 11 pledged electors cast their votes for President-elect former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Kamala Harris from California. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The electoral vote was tabulated and certified by Congress in a joint session on January 6, 2021 per the Electoral Count Act.

These individuals were nominated by each party to serve as the state's members of the 2020 Electoral College should their party’s ticket win the state:[46]

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party		 Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party		 Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party		 Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker
Green Party		 Jade Simmons and Claudeliah J. Roze
Independent		 Gloria La Riva and Sunil Freeman
Socialism and Liberation		 Daniel Clyde Cummings and Ryan Huber
Constitution Party		 President R. Boddie and Eric Stoneham
Independent
Steve Gallardo
Luis Alberto Heredia
Constance Jackson
Sandra D. Kennedy
Stephen Roe Lewis
James McLaughlin
Jonathan Nez
Ned Norris
Regina Romero
Felecia Rotellini
Fred Yamashita		 Tyler Bowyer
Nancy Cottle
Jake Hoffman
Anthony T. Kern
James Lamon
Robert Montgomery
Samuel I. Moorhead
Loraine B. Pellegrino
Greg Safsten
Kelli Ward
Michael Ward		 Timothy Benjamin
Howard Blitz
Jeffery T. Daniels
Alejandro Flores
Barry Hess
Michael Kielsky
Doug Marks
Robert A. Pepiton II
Brandon Slayton
Scott Steward
Jonathan Winder		 Cara Bissell
Celeste M. Castorena
Cesario C. Castorena
Angela Dixon
Antonio Macías
Linda Macías
Betty J. McMurrin
Elisa Olea
Eduardo Quintana
Richard Scott
Angel Torres		 Celeslie L. Boyer
Sydney Curtis
Maryann Ehmann
Valerie Grapentine
Jared Korth
JoAnna Langston
Erica Martin
Kia McMurray
Dennis McMurray Jr.
Brittany Sanchez
Veronica Scheier		 Jahaziel Felix
Pedro Gomez
Kealy Hartley
Alexia Isais
Dylan Jacobson
Steven Levin
Daniel Lopez
Joseph Mueller
Luzette Romo
Madison West
Skylar Wise		 Jake Beeson
Jaymie Beeson
Becca Hansen
Jacob Hansen
Karen Huber
Ryan Huber
Deric Powell
Kristin Powell
Chad Prior
Diana Prior
Luis Ruiz		 La Deysha Black
Donshadre Dukes
Travis Froman
Maria Guevara
Maria Elena Lechaga
Omar Leyva
Ema Maldonado
Rebecca Martinez
Lynette Tucci
Stephanie Valenzuela
Andrea Varela

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona[47][48]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		1,672,143 49.22% +4.82%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence		 1,661,686 48.91% +0.98%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 51,465 1.52% −2.56%
Green Howie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)		 1,557 0.05% −1.27%
Independent Jade Simmons (write-in)
Claudeliah Roze (write-in)		 236 0.01% N/A
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva (write-in)
Sunil Freeman (write-in)		 190 0.01% N/A
Constitution Daniel Clyde Cummings[lower-alpha 70] (write-in)
Ryan Huber (write-in)		 36 0.00% −0.04%
Independent President R. Boddie (write-in)
Eric Stoneham (write-in)		 13 0.0% N/A
Total votes 3,387,326 100.0%

By county

County Joe Biden
Democratic		 Donald Trump
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Apache 23,293 66.05% 11,442 32.44% 533 1.51% 11,851 33.61% 35,268
Cochise 23,732 39.12% 35,557 58.61% 1,376 2.27% −11,825 −19.49% 60,665
Coconino 44,698 60.70% 27,052 36.74% 1,882 2.56% 17,646 23.96% 73,632
Gila 8,943 32.24% 18,377 66.26% 415 1.50% −9,434 −34.02% 27,735
Graham 4,034 26.84% 10,749 71.52% 246 1.64% −6,715 −44.68% 15,029
Greenlee 1,182 31.98% 2,433 65.83% 81 2.19% −1,251 −33.85% 3,696
La Paz 2,236 29.93% 5,129 68.64% 107 1.43% −2,893 −38.71% 7,472
Maricopa 1,040,774 50.13% 995,665 47.96% 39,647 1.91% 45,109 2.17% 2,076,086
Mohave 24,831 23.67% 78,535 74.88% 1,517 1.45% −53,704 −51.21% 104,883
Navajo 23,383 45.03% 27,657 53.26% 890 1.71% −4,274 −8.23% 51,930
Pima 304,981 58.41% 207,758 39.79% 9,435 1.81% 97,223 18.62% 522,174
Pinal 75,106 40.48% 107,077 57.72% 3,342 1.80% −31,971 −17.24% 185,525
Santa Cruz 13,138 67.10% 6,194 31.63% 249 1.27% 6,944 35.47% 19,581
Yavapai 49,602 34.53% 91,527 63.72% 2,511 1.75% −41,925 −29.19% 143,640
Yuma 32,210 45.97% 36,534 52.14% 1,328 1.90% −4,324 −6.17% 70,072
Totals1,672,14349.22%1,661,68648.91%63,5591.87%10,4570.31%3,397,388


Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 5 out of 9 congressional districts in Arizona.[49]

District Joe Biden
Democratic		 Donald Trump
Republican		 Representative
1st 50.1% 48.4% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 54.5% 43.9% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 62.8% 35.7% Raúl Grijalva
4th 30.6% 68.0% Paul Gosar
5th 41.9% 56.4% Andy Biggs
6th 47.3% 51.4% David Schweikert
7th 73.7% 24.7% Ruben Gallego
8th 41.4% 57.3% Debbie Lesko
9th 60.8% 37.3% Greg Stanton

Analysis

In winning Arizona, Biden won Maricopa County, by far the most populous county in Arizona,[3] making it the first time a Democrat had done so since 1948.[50] Biden also became the first Democrat to break even 45% of the vote statewide since Lyndon B. Johnson did so in 1964. Biden's statewide winning margin of 0.3% remained out of range for a recount, since Arizona Revised Statutes does not have provisions for candidate- or voter-requested recounts and an automatic recount will only be performed if the margin is lower than 0.1%.[51] This was the first time since 2000 that any county in the state flipped parties.

Arizona was seen as a potential Democratic flip throughout the year, as the state's increasing Hispanic population as well as an influx of retirees and younger college-educated voters were becoming increasingly friendly to the Democratic Party.[52]

Analysts attributed Biden's win in Arizona to several factors, including shifts towards Democrats in the suburbs of Phoenix[53][54] and an increase in Native American turnout.[55] Trump's attacks on moderate Republicans, including former Arizona senator John McCain, were also cited as factors that helped Biden, along with Biden's endorsement from Cindy McCain, the widow of John McCain.[56][57] The Biden campaign had released an ad featuring Cindy McCain discussing Biden's relationship with John McCain.[58] Analysts also cited Latino organizing after Arizona Republicans passed controversial immigration laws such as SB 1070.[59][60]

Hispanic and Latino voters

Biden carried the Hispanic/Latino vote by a 59–40 margin,[61] which was eleven points weaker than Hillary Clinton's 61–31 win in 2016 among Latinos, in spite of her loss statewide.[62] Santa Cruz County, where 83.5% of the population is Hispanic or Latino,[63] swung 12 points more Republican than in 2016, while Yuma County (63.8% Hispanic or Latino)[64] swung 5.1 points more Republican.[65]

Native American voters

Biden easily won Apache County, dominated by the Navajo and Fort Apache reservations; and Coconino County, encompassing the Havasupai Nation and parts of the Navajo, Hopi, and Hualapai nations.[66] Anywhere from 60 to 90% of the Navajo Nation's 67,000 registered voters voted for Biden.[67] In Pima County, Biden won the precincts encompassing the Tohono O'odham, San Xavier, and Pascua Yaqui reservations, often with over 90% of the vote.[68]

Concurrent elections

The presidential election was held concurrently with elections to the House of Representatives and Senate. In the 2020 United States Senate special election, incumbent Republican Martha McSally, who lost the 2018 Senate election but was appointed to the Senate to replace Jon Kyl (who in turn replaced the late John McCain), ran for re-election, but was defeated by Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly. Kelly was widely expected in polling and forecasts to outperform Biden[52][69] due to McSally's unpopularity,[70] and ended up doing so by 2.05 percentage points. It also corresponded with 2020 Arizona Proposition 207, a referendum to approve the legalization and taxation of recreational marijuana, which was approved by over 60% of voters. House Republicans won more votes than Democrats: Republicans won 50.1% of votes on the general ballot to the Democrats' 49.9%.[7]

Exit polls

Edison

The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the Edison Research for the National Election Pool (encompassing ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News) interviewing 1,639 Arizona voters, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[71]

2020 presidential election in Arizona by subgroup (Edison exit polling)[72]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 49.36 49.06 99
Ideology
Liberals 93 6 22
Moderates 67 32 36
Conservatives 11 87 42
Party
Democrats 96 3 26
Republicans 9 90 35
Independents 53 44 39
Gender
Men 48 50 48
Women 51 48 52
Race/ethnicity
White 46 52 74
Black – – 2
Latino 61 37 19
Asian – – 2
Other – – 4
Age
18–29 years old 63 32 16
30–44 years old 47 51 20
45–64 years old 44 55 32
65 and older 49 50 31
Sexual orientation
LGBT 68 29 8
Heterosexual 48 51 92
Education
Never attended college 49 51 16
Some college education 46 51 28
Associate degree 46 52 14
Bachelor's degree 49 50 25
Postgraduate degree 60 40 16
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 93 6 12
Coronavirus 95 4 21
Economy 8 91 34
Crime and safety 11 87 12
Health care 78 20 14
Region
Maricopa County 50 48 61
Pima County 59 40 15
Rest of state 41 57 24
Area type
Urban 56 42 46
Suburban 45 55 46
Rural 41 55 9
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 15 83 44
Worse than four years ago 91 8 15
About the same 71 27 41

Associated Press

The following are estimates from exit polls conducted by the University of Chicago for the Associated Press interviewing 3,772 likely voters in Arizona, adjusted to match the actual vote count.[73]

2020 presidential election in Arizona by subgroup (Associated Press exit polling)[73]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump Jorgensen % of

total vote

Total vote 49.36 49.06 1.52 100
Ideology
Liberals 92 8 <1 28
Moderates 59 37 3 33
Conservatives 10 89 1 39
Party
Democrats or lean Democrat 96 3 1 43
Republicans or lean Republican 9 90 1 51
Independents 58 33 8 6
Type of vote
Election Day 33 66 1 15
Early in-person 38 61 1 20
Mail 56 42 2 66
Vote in 2016
Hillary Clinton 95 5 <1 36
Donald Trump 7 92 1 43
Someone else 58 27 14 6
Did not vote 57 41 1 15
Gender
Men 46 52 2 48
Women 52 47 1 52
Race/ethnicity
White 45 53 2 71
Black – – – 4
Latino 59 40 1 8
Other 49 49 2 8
Age
18–24 years old 63 33 4 7
25–29 years old 55 43 2 6
30–39 years old 56 43 1 14
40–49 years old 49 48 2 14
50–64 years old 45 54 1 29
65 and older 46 53 1 30
Religion
Protestant 35 64 1 21
Catholic 51 48 1 22
Mormon 18 80 2 4
Other Christian 33 66 1 17
Jewish 68 30 2 3
Muslim – – – 1
Something else 58 38 3 7
None 71 27 2 26
Marital status
Single or never married 59 40 1 21
Married 43 55 2 58
Separated – – – <1
Divorced 50 49 1 15
Widowed – – – 6
Sexual orientation
LGBT 70 27 2 8
Heterosexual 45 53 1 92
Education
High school or less 49 50 1 24
Some college education or associate degree 47 51 2 41
College graduate 52 46 1 23
Postgraduate degree 54 45 1 13
Total household income (2019)
Under $25,000 50 48 2 13
$25,000–$49,999 52 46 1 25
$50,000–$74,999 54 45 1 21
$75,000–$99,999 47 52 1 17
Over $100,000 44 53 2 24
Union households
Yes 52 46 1 10
No 49 50 1 90
Veteran households
Veteran, self 48 51 1 14
Veteran household 46 54 <1 19
No 53 45 2 67
Issue regarded as most important
Economy and jobs 14 84 2 31
Healthcare 64 34 2 8
Immigration 13 85 2 5
Abortion – – – 2
Law enforcement 17 82 1 5
Climate change 86 10 3 5
Foreign policy – – – 1
COVID-19 pandemic 76 23 1 39
Racism 85 15 <1 5
Area type
Urban 59 40 1 26
Suburban 48 51 1 50
Small town 41 58 1 13
Rural 43 55 2 10
Family's financial situation today
Getting ahead 23 77 <1 13
Holding steady 50 47 2 70
Falling behind 64 33 2 17

Aftermath

Kelli Ward (left), future Chair of the Arizona GOP, would ultimately vote to censure Doug Ducey (second from left) for his refusal to overturn the Arizona election results.

By November 7, hand count audits had been completed in Cochrise, Coconino, Grenlee, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz, and Yavapai counties in order to test the accuracy of the voting tabulation equipment. Each of these county hand count audits either found there to be no discrepancies, or found their count to be within the acceptable margins of error identified by state election law.[74]

While Maricopa County's November 4 hand count audit had found no discrepancies,[74] an additional physical hand recount of 47,000 ballots (2% of election-day ballots plus 5,000 early voting ballots) was conducted in Maricopa County from November 7 through November 9, 2020, which again found no discrepancies.[75][76][77]

On November 24, 2020, Governor Doug Ducey acknowledged that Biden won the state.[78]

On January 24, 2021, the Arizona GOP voted to censure Cindy McCain, Jeff Flake, and Doug Ducey, all of whom vehemently denied conspiracy theories from the Trump campaign arguing that the results in Arizona were fraudulent and invalid.[79][80] Between January 6 and January 20, the Arizona Secretary of State office reported that over 8,000 Republicans changed their party registration to Democrat, Libertarian, or unaffiliated, which was attributed to said actions by Trump and the Arizona GOP.[81][82]

On February 23, 2021, Maricopa County announced that forensic audits of their vote tabulation equipment by two independent auditors had found no irregularities.[83][84]

Controversies

Early call

Fox News called Arizona for Biden at 11:20 p.m. EST on November 3, election day, with 73% of projected vote counted.[85] The Associated Press did so at 2:51 a.m. EST on November 4.[86][87] Fox News received push-back from the Trump campaign as no other network called Arizona on election night.[88][89][90][91] Fox News decision desk director Arnon Mishkin defended the Arizona call at 12:30 a.m., saying that Fox News was "four standard deviations from being wrong"[88] and that Trump was "not going to be able to take over and win enough votes to eliminate that seven-point lead that [Biden] has".[92] Biden and other Democratic candidates began election night with a wide lead in the state, and at the time Fox News called Arizona for Biden, he led by 210,259 votes (53.9% to 44.9%).[93] The reporting in Arizona was the reverse of a 'red mirage' and 'blue shift' effect seen nationwide, where the counting of election day votes before early and absentee votes gave Republicans across the country an early lead. Votes cast on election day typically leaned heavily Republican while those cast early and absentee ballots leaned heavily Democratic, partially due to the skepticism of mail in voting mostly from Trump and fellow Republicans.[94] However, Arizona and several other Sun Belt states had the opposite effect. Early votes and absentee votes cast before the election were pre-counted and released shortly after 10:00 p.m. EST, when polls closed. Election day votes, as well as a few absentee votes, were released on election night and trickled in throughout the rest of the week. FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that close races "might have to wait for those last few ballots before knowing who won".[95] Despite Biden's lead dropping throughout the week, it became clear that Trump's margin among election day votes would not be enough to overtake Biden's lead: Trump needed 59% of the outstanding vote to win,[96][97] but continuously won around only 53% of the votes released in several ballot dumps after election day.[98]

On November 11, Decision Desk HQ, along with several other outlets, projected that Biden would carry the state.[99] On November 12, ABC News, NBC News, CNN and The New York Times all projected Biden to carry the state shortly after 11:00 p.m. Eastern.[100][101][102]

Objection

On January 6, as a joint session of Congress began to certify the election for President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, there was an objection to Arizona's 11 electoral votes, brought forward by Representative Paul Gosar of Arizona's 4th congressional district and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and signed by 67 other senators and representatives.[103] Debates began over the objection in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, but were abruptly cut short after threats by pro-Trump demonstrators that escalated into a full blown storming of the Capitol, forcing the building to be locked down and Congress to be evacuated. After the Capitol was secured at 5:40 p.m.[104] and Congress reconvened, the objection failed 6–93 in the Senate, and 121–303 in the House.[105] The riot reportedly dissuaded several Republican senators and representatives from objecting to the Electoral College results.[106]

Lawsuits

Following the election, Donald Trump, the Arizona Republican Party, Republican National Committee, and several others filed lawsuits attempting to overturn the results of the election in Arizona, citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.

Overvotes lawsuit

On November 7, 2020, the Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee, and the Arizona Republican Party filed a lawsuit against Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes that alleged that overvotes were "incorrectly rejected". Overvotes occur when a voter mark more than the options allowed in a given race, and stray markings can often be processed as overvotes by tabulation machines. The machines are programmed to alert voters of the overvote, allowing them to either request a new ballot or proceed with the original one. The lawsuit argued that those who chose to file their "original ballots are entitled to a manual inspection of their ballots later," and claimed that voters were urged to cast their original ballots by poll workers rather than request a new one. In total, 4,816 votes were deemed overvotes, which would be insufficient to overcome Biden's 10,457-vote advantage. A representative for Maricopa County stated that only "180 potential overvotes" were involved in the lawsuit, and that it would be "absurd" to assume all 180 were incorrectly counted.[107] The Trump campaign requested that their evidence be kept secret from the public, but the judge refused to allow the secrecy.[108] The Trump campaign also stated that they had video footage from within a polling area; however, such footage would be illegal if taken within 75 feet of a polling area with voters present. Thomas Liddy, a lawyer representing Maricopa County, deemed the lawsuit unnecessary, as if their claims were correct, both Biden and Trump votes would be equally affected, while Roopali Desai, an attorney representing the Secretary of State, argued the lawsuit attempted to "find a problem when one does not exist".

Mick West, a skeptical investigator and creator of the website Metabunk, cited how the percentage of votes deemed overvotes was lower or the same percentage as the last four elections, and a considerable decrease from 2016, when 21,785 overvotes (1.4%) were cast in the presidential election in Maricopa County.[109]

On November 10, 2020, Associate Presiding Civil Judge Daniel Kiley accepted a request from Snell & Wilmer, the law firm which was representing the Trump campaign and its allies, to withdraw from the Arizona lawsuit.[110][111] On November 11, 2020, Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich rejected Trump's voter fraud claim during an interview with Fox Business and stated that Biden would win the state of Arizona.[112][113] On November 13, the Trump campaign dropped their lawsuit after it became evident that the number of votes potentially to be contested would not overcome Biden's margin of victory in the state.[114]

Audit ordered by Arizona Senate Republicans

Origins

On March 31, 2021, the Arizona Senate Republican caucus hired four firms to examine the ballots in Maricopa County in the races for President and for the United States Senate, with a Florida-based company called Cyber Ninjas being the lead firm.[115] Cyber Ninjas' owner, Doug Logan, is a Trump supporter and a proponent of Trump's false claims of voter fraud.[116][117][118] The process involves an audit to search for evidence of fraud, and a hand recount of the 2.1 million ballots cast in Maricopa County.[115] The hand recount is managed by Wake Technology Services, which reportedly had been hired for a previous audit in a rural Pennsylvania county by Trump attorney Sidney Powell, who has promoted numerous conspiracy theories about the election; the firm works primarily in the healthcare sector with little to no experience with elections.[119][120]

The Arizona Republicans funded the effort by using $150,000 from the State Senate operating budget,[121][115] but this money is acknowledged to be insufficient and the actual source of funding has not been declared.[122] Patrick Byrne, the former CEO of Overstock.com and promoter of 2020 election conspiracy theories, donated one million dollars to the effort and created a website to raise further funds, which was promoted by former Trump national security advisor Michael Flynn. The fundraising was conducted through a 501(c)(4) organization, a tax code provision intended primarily for the promotion of social welfare.[123][124] One America News personalities also created a dark money organization to raise funds, while providing extensive coverage of the audit that drew praise from Trump.[125] CueCat inventor J. Hutton Pulitzer claims to have invented a system for detecting "kinematic markers" which is being used by Cyber Ninjas.[126] Pulitzer is also said to be the originator of the claim that Chinese ballots with paper containing bamboo are part of the claimed fraud.[127] Flynn and Byrne stated that, if they were proven wrong, the would publicly apologize that they "put this country through this."[128]

Conduct and concerns

The audit began on April 22, and on the same day Arizona Senate Democrats filed a lawsuit to stop the audit. The next day Judge Christopher Coury agreed to suspend the audit for three days until the contractors can present documentation on how they will conduct the audit.[129] The suspension was conditioned on the Arizona Senate Democrats posting a $1 million bond to cover the cost that the delay could cost the Arizona State Senate Republicans. But because the Arizona State Senate Democrats refused to post the bond, the suspension did not go into effect.[130] By May 5 Arizona Senate Democrats reached a settlement with the Arizona Senate Republicans to allow independent elections experts to observe the audit. The agreement authorizes Secretary of State Katie Hobbs to file suit against Cyber Ninjas for breach of contract if the company does not live up to the agreement.[131][132]

Former Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett, a Republican, had been designated as the State Senate's liaison to the audit.[133] On May 5, 2021, Hobbs sent a letter to Bennett, detailing additional concerns with the way the audit was being conducted.[134] Her letter cited the audit's disclosed procedures (departures from best practices for hand recounts) and the reports of the observers sent from the Secretary of State's office (including sloppy handling of ballots). A response from the audit's Twitter account asserted that Hobbs’s allegations were "baseless claimes [sic]".[135]

Also on May 5, the United States Department of Justice sent Karen Fann, president of the Arizona State Senate, a letter expressing concerns that the audit may violate federal laws. One concern is that the law requires election officials to maintain custody of all voting records for up to 22 months. Another concern is that the statement of work for Cyber Ninjas authorizes Cyber Ninjas to knock on voters' doors to ask them if they have voted in the 2020 elections, which may amount to voter intimidation and constitute a violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.[136] After the Department of Justice threatened to sue over this plan, Cyber Ninjas agreed not to do it.[116]

As part of the audit, auditors have been looking for secret watermarks, machine-markings, and bamboo fibers within the ballots. The testing for bamboo fibers was intended to prove a conspiracy theory that counterfeit ballots were shipped from South Korea after the elections. The audit was supposed to have concluded on May 14, but as of May 9, only 12% of the ballots were counted. The audit is being conducted at the main floor of the Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum, which was not available for this activity beyond the original target date.[115][137] Consequently, the audit went on hiatus on May 14 and resumed on May 24.[138]

The objectivity of the audit has been called into question due to the involvement of Logan.[139] Additionally, Anthony Kern, a former Republican state lawmaker who was present at the 2021 storming of the United States Capitol, has been seen tallying votes.[115] Kern, who was himself named on the ballots as a would-be Trump presidential elector as well as running for re-election to the Arizona House of Representatives, has since been removed from the group with access to the ballots.[140] Former Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett, a Republican, is advising the audit. Hobbs, the current Secretary of State, has criticized Bennett's efforts, saying he needs to "either do it right, or don't do it at all."[131]

The audit has produced division among Arizona Republicans. After initially supporting the audit, on May 9 Paul Boyer, a member of the Arizona State Senate Republican caucus, criticized the audit, saying "it makes us look like idiots." The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, which is dominated by Republicans, also opposed the audit.[137] On May 17, the board held a hearing and sent Fann a twelve-page letter to dispute her allegations of wrongdoing by county officials. Republican board chairman Jack Sellers stated that the allegations were actually due to the incompetence of the auditors and accused Fann of an "attempt at legitimatizing a grift disguised as an audit."[141][142] Fann, however, continued to support the audit, and sent the Board of Supervisors a four-page letter stating that "serious issues" had arisen during the audit.[143] Arizona Republican Party Chairwoman Kelli Ward released multiple videos about the audit, in which she criticized the Board of Supervisors and raised "the possibility of placing the validity of the entire 2020 election into question."[144][145] A poll conducted at the end of March found that 78.3% of Arizona Republicans believed "that there was significant voter fraud in the 2020 United States Presidential Election which compromised the integrity of the election."[146]

Fann made an allegation, later amplified by Trump in a May 15 post on his blog, asserting that Maricopa County election officials deleted the voting database after the election. Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, a Republican who oversees elections, tweeted that Trump's post was "unhinged", noting he was looking at the database on his computer at that moment. Richer added, "We can’t indulge these insane lies any longer." The auditors later acknowledged the database had not been deleted.[147][148]

The Arizona Republic reported in May that because Senate Republicans had given private companies and individuals unfettered and unmonitored access to voting machines, the county might need to expend significant funds and time to ensure the equipment would meet federal, state and local requirements for certifying and protecting election equipment. The Republic reported the voting machines were worth $6 million.[149] Hobbs, the Secretary of State, later informed the Board of Supervisors that election technology and security experts, including at the federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, unanimously advised her that the machines should not be reused in future elections because no methods exist to adequately secure them.[150]

A preliminary report on the results of the audit, made at the cost of some six million dollars raised from Trump supporters determined to overturn the election, found no evidence of fraud.[151] Despite that, Trump continued to claim that there had been fraud in the tabulation of results and confirmation of the Biden win.[151] The audit claimed to have found minor discrepancies in the original, state-certified count, that had actually widened Biden's margin by 360 votes.[151]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ↑ The Justice Collaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
  2. 1 2 The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  3. ↑ This poll's sponsor exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  4. 1 2 The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  5. ↑ Smart and Safe Arizona endorsed Proposition 207 prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  7. ↑ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  8. ↑ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  9. ↑ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  10. ↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  11. ↑ Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  12. ↑ Poll sponsored by 314 Action
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ↑ Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.
  2. ↑ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[16]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[14]
  3. ↑ CBS News' presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  4. ↑ NPR's presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  5. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Standard VI response
  8. ↑ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  9. 1 2 3 4 If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  10. 1 2 3 4 "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  11. ↑ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  12. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  13. ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  14. ↑ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  15. ↑ "Other" with 1.5%
  16. ↑ "Someone else" with 6%
  17. ↑ "Refused" with 5%; "Other" with 1%
  18. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  19. 1 2 3 4 Includes "Refused"
  20. ↑ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with no voters
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 "Some other candidate" with 3%
  22. ↑ "Someone else" with 1.7%
  23. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  24. 1 2 "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  25. 1 2 3 4 5 "Refused" with 1%
  26. 1 2 "Someone else" with 2%
  27. 1 2 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  28. ↑ "Other" with 1%; "Refused" with 0%
  29. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  30. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  31. ↑ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  32. ↑ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  33. ↑ "Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  34. 1 2 "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  35. ↑ "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 1%; West (B) with 0%
  36. ↑ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
  37. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  38. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  39. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Refused" with 0%
  40. 1 2 3 4 If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  41. 1 2 3 "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  42. ↑ "Refused" with 3%
  43. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%
  44. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
  45. ↑ "Neither" with 2%; "other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  46. ↑ "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  47. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  48. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  49. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "Refused" with 0%
  50. ↑ Would not vote with 1%
  51. 1 2 3 Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  52. ↑ "Other/not sure" with 6%
  53. ↑ West (B) and "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  54. ↑ "Other" with 1%
  55. ↑ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  56. ↑ Listed as Jacob Hornberger (L)
  57. 1 2 West (B) with 2%; "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
  58. ↑ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  59. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Not yet released
  60. ↑ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 3%
  61. ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  62. ↑ "Other" with 3.1%; "refused" with 0.2%
  63. ↑ "other" with 2%
  64. ↑ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  65. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%
  66. ↑ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
  67. ↑ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  68. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4.3%
  69. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  70. ↑ The Constitution Party did not have ballot access in Arizona. Daniel Clyde Cummings and Ryan Huber registered as write-in candidates representing the party instead of the national ticket led by Don Blankenship and William Mohr.

References

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