2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
November 6, 2018
Turnout64.85% Increase[1]
 
Nominee Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,191,100 1,135,200
Percentage 49.96% 47.61%
Sinema:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McSally:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Jeff Flake
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018.[2] Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake did not seek reelection to a second term. The election was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections.

Primaries were held on August 28, 2018,[3] three days after the death of longtime U.S. Senator John McCain.[4] Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot, but ended her campaign and endorsed Sinema before Election Day.[5]

The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018,[6] and McSally conceded that day.[7] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988. McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl.

Background

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state had remained in the Republican camp, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.[8]

Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[9] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former state senator Kelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.[10][11][12]

Republican primary

Candidates

On the ballot

U.S. Representative Martha McSally at the launch of her senatorial bid in January 2018.
Former State Senator Kelli Ward at a campaign event prior to the Republican primary in August 2018.

Failed to file

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Martha McSally
Federal officials
United States Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Mayors
Individuals
  • Suzanne Klapp, Scottsdale city councilwoman[49]
Organizations
Kelli Ward
U.S. Senators
U.S. representatives
Local officials
U.S. military personnel
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Arpaio		 Martha
McSally		 Kelli
Ward		 Other Undecided
Data Orbital Archived August 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine August 21–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 18% 48% 22% 1% 8%
OH Predictive Insights August 14–15, 2018 578 ± 4.1% 13% 47% 27% – 12%
OH Predictive Insights July 23–25, 2018 576 ± 4.1% 15% 35% 27% – 23%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 27 – July 2, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 24% 36% 27% – 14%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018 305 ± 5.9% 18% 32% 19% 7%[74] 23%
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 19–21, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 17% 38% 23% 2% 21%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 371 ± 6.7% 21% 30% 28% <1% 21%
OH Predictive Insights June 11–12, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 14% 39% 25% – 22%
Remington (R)[upper-alpha 1] May 23–24, 2018 2,011 ± 2.3% 25% 42% 23% – 10%
Magellan Strategies (R) April 11–12 and 15, 2018 755 ± 3.6% 26% 36% 25% 6% 7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 302 ± 5.6% 22% 27% 36% – 15%
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine January 11–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 22% 31% 19% – 27%
OH Predictive Insights January 9, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 29% 31% 25% – 15%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 1] November 15–16, 2017 500 ± 4.4% – 38% 36% – 26%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 323 ± 5.5% – 34% 42% – 24%
Revily (R)[upper-alpha 2] October 28–31, 2017 380 ± 3.0% – 21% 32% 15%[75] 34%
Hypothetical polling
with Jay Heiler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jay
Heiler		 Martha
McSally		 Matt
Salmon		 David
Schweikert		 John
Shadegg		 Kelli
Ward		 Undecided
Data Orbital October 26–28, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 1% 19% 10% 5% 4% 26% 28%
with Jeff Flake
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jeff
Flake		 Jeff
DeWit		 Nicholas
Tutora		 Kelli
Ward		 Other Undecided
GBA Strategies August 30 – September 7, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 31% – – 58% – 11%
JMC Analytics (R) August 26–27, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 21% – 3% 47% – 29%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine August 18–19, 2017 273 ± 5.9% 28% – – 43% 5% 24%
Political Marketing International (R-Ward) February 7, 2017 921 ± 5.0% 23% – – 30% – 47%
Remington Research Group November 15–16, 2016 1,122 ± 2.9% 30% 38% – 15% – 17%
33% 42% – – – 25%
35% 35% – – – 30%

Results

Results by county:
  McSally
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Arpaio
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Martha McSally 357,626 54.57%
Republican Kelli Ward 180,926 27.61%
Republican Joe Arpaio 116,555 17.79%
Write-in 191 0.03%
Total votes 655,298 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

On the ballot

U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema at a campaign event in October 2018.
Attorney Deedra Abboud at a campaign event in April 2017.

Failed to file

Withdrew

  • Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher[84][85]

Declined

Endorsements

Deedra Abboud
Organizations
Kyrsten Sinema
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Deedra
Abboud		 Kyrsten
Sinema		 Other Undecided
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 25–27, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 7% 63% 2% 29%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018 260 ± 6.2% 8% 51% 12%[146] 30%

Results

Results by county:
  Sinema
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 404,170 79.25%
Democratic Deedra Abboud 105,800 20.75%
Total votes 509,970 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Results

Results by county:
  Green
  •   90-100%
No votes
  •   
Green primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Angela Green (write-in) 389 100.00%
Total votes 389 100.00%

General election

Debates

Sinema and McSally in a 2018 senatorial debate.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[150] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[151] Tilt D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[152] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[153] Tossup October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[154] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[155] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2018
Daily Kos[156] Tossup October 26, 2018
Fox News[157] Tossup October 30, 2018

Endorsements

Martha McSally (R)
U.S. executive branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Former U.S. executive branch Officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (D) $19,287,249 $20,249,341 $1,301,542
Martha McSally (R) $16,211,836 $13,688,178 $2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission[201]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Martha
McSally (R)		 Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		 Angela
Green (G)		 Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 4–5, 2018 1,217 ± 2.8% 47% 45% – 2% 6%
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 49% – – –
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 47% – – –
OH Predictive Insights November 2–3, 2018 631 ± 3.9% 49% 48% 0% – 1%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 758 ± 3.7% 48% 49% 2% – 2%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 46% – – –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 44% 45% – 1% 10%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 44% – – –
Gravis Marketing October 24 – November 2, 2018 1,165 ± 2.9% 47% 46% – – 7%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 42% – – –
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 30 – November 1, 2018 2,166 ± 2.1% 47% 50% – 2% 1%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 42% – – –
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018 677 ± 3.7% 48% 52% – – –
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 48% 43% – – –
FOX News October 27–29, 2018 643 LV ± 3.5% 46% 46% – 3% 5%
710 RV ± 3.5% 44% 45% – 4% 6%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 702 LV ± 4.4% 47% 51% – 0% 1%
867 RV ± 4.0% 45% 48% – 0% 3%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived October 30, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 26–28, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 4% – 5%
NBC News/Marist College October 23–27, 2018 506 LV ± 5.4% 44% 47% 6% <1% 3%
44% 50% – 2% 4%
793 RV ± 4.4% 43% 45% 7% <1% 5%
43% 49% – 2% 6%
CBS News/YouGov October 23–26, 2018 972 ± 4.1% 44% 47% – 3% 5%
Ipsos October 17–26, 2018 799 ± 4.0% 48% 46% – 3% 3%
OH Predictive Insights October 22–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 52% 45% 1% – 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 15–19, 2018 606 ± 4.2% 48% 46% 1% – 6%
Data Orbital Archived October 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 16–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 47% 3% 1% 8%
Change Research (D) October 9–10, 2018 783 – 44% 44% – – 11%
CBS News/YouGov October 2–5, 2018 898 – 44% 47% – 3% 6%
OH Predictive Insights October 1–2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 41% 4% – 8%
FOX News September 29 – October 2, 2018 716 LV ± 3.5% 45% 47% – 2% 6%
806 RV ± 3.5% 44% 45% – 2% 8%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 702 ± 3.5% 52% 49% – – –
Suffolk University Archived October 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 27–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 45% 2% 0% 11%
Latino Decisions September 10–25, 2018 463 LV – 41% 47% – – 11%
610 RV – 37% 43% – – 17%
Emerson College September 19–21, 2018 650 ± 4.4% 39% 45% – 4% 13%
NBC News/Marist College September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 4.7% 43% 45% 6% <1% 6%
45% 48% – <1% 7%
763 RV ± 4.2% 41% 44% 6% <1% 8%
44% 47% – <1% 9%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 761 LV ± 4.3% 43% 50% – 0% 3%
854 RV ± 4.1% 41% 48% – 1% 6%
Ipsos September 5–14, 2018 1,016 ± 4.0% 44% 47% – 4% 5%
TargetSmart (D) Archived September 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 46% 51% – 1% 3%
FOX News September 8–11, 2018 710 LV ± 3.5% 44% 47% – 2% 5%
801 RV ± 3.5% 42% 46% – 3% 7%
Gravis Marketing Archived September 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 5–7, 2018 882 ± 3.3% 49% 48% – – 3%
OH Predictive Insights September 5–6, 2018 597 ± 4.0% 49% 46% – – 6%
Data Orbital Archived September 12, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 4–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 42% 46% – 2%[202] 9%
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 48% – – 8%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 39% 43% – – 19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 44% 48% – – 7%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 32% 40% – 9% 20%
CBS News/YouGov June 19–22, 2018 869 LV – 37% 45% – 7% 10%
998 RV ± 3.7% 34% 41% – 8% 14%
NBC News/Marist College June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% 49% – 2% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 42% 51% – – 7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 48% – – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 3] March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% 41% 46% – – 13%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 45% 46% – – 9%
Revily (R)[upper-alpha 2] October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 29% 33% – – 37%
Hypothetical polling
with Kelli Ward
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kelli
Ward (R)		 Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		 Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 51% – 8%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 37% 46% – 17%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 41% 52% – 7%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 26% 43% 8% 23%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018 867 LV ± 3.7% 38% 46% 6% 9%
996 RV 35% 43% 7% 14%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% 48% 2% 12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 43% 51% – 6%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 50% – 10%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11%
Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 34% 33% – 33%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived November 8, 2017, at the Wayback Machine October 23–26, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 27% 34% – 39%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine August 18–19, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 31% 32% – 38%
with Joe Arpaio
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Arpaio (R)		 Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		 Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 54% – 10%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 33% 52% – 14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 34% 57% – 9%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 30% 54% 8% 9%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018 868 LV ± 3.7% 29% 49% 13% 8%
996 RV 28% 45% 13% 11%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 32% 57% 2% 9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 32% 61% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 33% 59% – 8%
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Morning Consult Archived July 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 29 – July 9, 2018 1,641 ± 2.0% 35% 42% 23%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% 47% 45% 8%
with Jeff Flake
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jeff
Flake (R)		 Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		 Undecided
GBA Strategies August 30 – September 7, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 40% 47% 13%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine August 18–19, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 33% 41% 27%
Public Policy Polling May 13–15, 2016 896 ± 3.3% 38% 36% 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jeff
Flake (R)		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) Archived August 4, 2017, at the Wayback Machine July 31 – August 1, 2017 704 ± 2.0% 31% 47% 22%
with Matt Salmon
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Salmon (R)		 Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		 Undecided
Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 30% 32% 38%

Results

The race was too close to call on Election Day.[203] On November 7, 2018 (one day after the election), KGUN 9 reported that McSally held a narrow lead of 0.9%, with thousands of ballots still uncounted.[204] On November 8, Politico reported that Sinema had taken a 9,610-vote lead.[205] Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race for Sinema until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[206] McSally conceded the race to Sinema that day.[207] The results were certified on December 3, 2018.[208]

This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.[207] Sinema is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona.[209]

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 1,191,100 49.96% +3.76%
Republican Martha McSally 1,135,200 47.61% -1.62%
Green Angela Green 57,442 2.41% N/A
Write-in 566 0.02% N/A
Total votes 2,384,308 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican
By county
County[210] Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic		 Martha McSally
Republican		 Angela Green
Green		 Write-in Margin Total votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Apache 16,298 64.97 7,810 31.13 961 3.83 18 0.07 8,488 33.83 25,087
Cochise 17,383 38.16 26,929 59.12 1,212 2.66 25 0.05 -9,546 -20.96 45,549
Coconino 34,240 61.94 19,249 34.82 1,757 3.18 34 0.06 14,991 27.12 55,280
Gila 7,643 37.28 12,180 59.42 674 3.29 2 0.01 -4,537 -22.13 20,499
Graham 3,368 31.76 6,870 64.77 363 3.42 5 0.05 -3,502 -33.02 10,606
Greenlee 1,042 40.59 1,416 55.16 108 4.21 1 0.04 -374 -14.57 2,567
La Paz 1,609 31.72 3,265 64.36 199 3.92 0 0.00 -1,656 -32.64 5,073
Maricopa 732,761 50.96 672,505 46.77 32,371 2.25 315 0.02 60,256 4.19 1,437,952
Mohave 19,214 26.88 50,209 70.25 2,027 2.84 19 0.03 -30,995 -43.37 71,469
Navajo 16,624 45.37 18,767 51.22 1,238 3.38 11 0.03 -2,143 -5.85 36,640
Pima 221,242 56.65 160,550 41.11 8,710 2.23 66 0.02 60,692 15.54 390,568
Pinal 50,395 42.93 63,782 54.33 3,183 2.71 35 0.03 -13,387 -11.40 117,395
Santa Cruz 9,241 68.51 3,828 28.38 418 3.10 1 0.01 5,413 40.13 13,488
Yavapai 40,160 37.06 65,308 60.26 2,870 2.65 30 0.03 -25,148 -23.21 108,368
Yuma 19,880 45.42 22,532 51.48 1,351 3.09 4 0.01 -2,652 -6.06 43,767
Totals 1,191,100 49.96 1,135,200 47.61 57,442 2.41 566 0.02 55,900 2.34 2,384,308

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional districts

Sinema won 5 of the 9 congressional districts.[211]

District Sinema McSally Representative
1st 50.64% 46.47% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 52.63% 45.23% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 63.9% 32.93% Raúl Grijalva
4th 32.85% 64.49% Paul Gosar
5th 42.35% 55.54% Andy Biggs
6th 47.4% 50.81% David Schweikert
7th 75.43% 21.19% Ruben Gallego
8th 42.88% 54.89% Debbie Lesko
9th 61.37% 36.41% Greg Stanton

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Sinema McSally No
Answer		  % of
Voters
Gender
Men 49 49 2 47
Women 51 47 2 53
Age
18–24 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
25–29 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
30–39 years old 57 39 4 17
40–49 years old 50 48 2 17
50–64 years old 44 55 1 29
65 and older 51 48 1 29
Race
White 45 53 2 75
Black N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino 68 30 2 18
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 3
Race and Gender
White men 42 55 3 34
White women 47 52 1 41
Black men N/A N/A N/A 1
Black women N/A N/A N/A 1
Latino men 66 32 2 9
Latina women 70 28 2 9
Others N/A N/A N/A 4
Education
High school or less 50 46 4 25
Some college education 45 54 1 28
Associate Degree 43 53 4 10
Bachelor's Degree 52 47 3 23
Advanced degree 62 37 1 14
Education and race
White college graduates 55 45 N/A 27
White no college degree 39 58 3 48
Non-white college graduates 72 27 1 9
Non-white no college degree 65 33 2 16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 56 44 N/A 15
White women without college degrees 42 56 2 26
White men with college degrees 53 47 N/A 12
White men without college degrees 35 61 4 22
Non-whites 68 31 1 25
Military service
Veteran 38 59 3 14
Non-veteran 54 45 1 86
Income
Under $30,000 62 34 4 15
$30,000-$49,999 63 36 1 18
$50,000-$99,999 48 49 3 33
$100,000-$199,999 41 58 1 24
Over $200,000 44 56 N/A 9
Party ID
Democrats 97 3 N/A 32
Republicans 12 86 2 38
Independents 50 47 3 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 94 6 N/A 14
Democratic women 99 1 N/A 17
Republican men 6 91 3 15
Republican women 16 83 1 23
Independent men 50 47 3 18
Independent women 50 47 3 13
Ideology
Liberals 94 6 N/A 22
Moderates 63 35 2 38
Conservatives 14 84 2 40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 53 44 3 15
No 48 50 2 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 77 20 3 42
Immigration 16 83 1 31
Economy 39 60 1 18
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 7
Area type
Urban 60 39 1 43
Suburban 44 54 2 51
Rural N/A N/A N/A 6
Source: CNN[212]

Aftermath

On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat. The seat was left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself had been appointed following the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain.[213] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019,[214] marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making Arizona the second state to be represented by two women from different parties. Sinema and McSally are only the second pair of senators from the same state in history to serve together after running against each other the previous year; the first such instance occurred in Oregon in 1996–1997.[215] Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected.

Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress and a special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish the remainder of McCain's unexpired term (which expired in 2023). McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly in that special election.[216][217]

Notes

    Partisan clients
    1. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by McSally's campaign
    2. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Ward's campaign
    3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care, an Affordable Care Act advocacy group and is affiliated with Democratic candidates

    References

    1. 1 2 "2018 1203 Signed Official Statewide Canvass.pdf" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on December 7, 2018. Retrieved December 6, 2018.
    2. ↑ "McSally Has Early Lead Over Sinema in US Senate Race; Kirkpatrick Ahead of Marquez Peterson in CD2". Tucson Weekly. November 6, 2018.
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    160. ↑ Donald J. Trump. "Martha McSally is an extraordinary woman. She was a very talented fighter jet pilot and is now a highly respected member of Congress. She is Strong on Crime, the Border and our under siege 2nd Amendment. Loves our Military and our Vets. Has my total and complete Endorsement!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
    161. ↑ Mike Pence. "Big win for @MarthaMcSally in Arizona! Martha served our nation with distinction in the @usairforce & she will be a great addition to the US Senate helping enact the @realDonaldTrump agenda. Get out and support Martha in November!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
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    163. ↑ "Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice Endorses Martha McSally For US Senate". McSally for Senate. November 2, 2018. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
    164. ↑ John Boozman. "As a USAF fighter pilot, @MarthaMcSally served bravely & honorably—blazing a bold trail for girls and young women. In Congress she's a leader and powerful advocate for our military, veterans & border security. She'd be a great addition to the US Senate. Good luck Martha! #AZSen". Twitter.
    165. ↑ McSally For Senate. "Excited to have Senator Susan Collins in town this week! #AZSEN". Twitter.
    166. ↑ Joni Ernst. ".@MarthaMcSally and I wore uniforms – not tutus ... #Veterans need strong voices for them in the Senate. Vote for Martha! #AZSEN". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 26, 2018. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
    167. ↑ "Lindsey Graham on Twitter". Twitter.
    168. ↑ "Liz Cheney on Twitter". Twitter.
    169. ↑ "Mitt Romney, Gov. Doug Ducey rally for Martha McSally". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
    170. ↑ "State Senator Karen Fann Endorses Martha McSally for United States Senate". McSally for Senate. October 24, 2018. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
    171. ↑ "Former Representative Steve Pierce Endorses Martha McSally for Senate". McSally for Senate. October 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
    172. ↑ Yvonne Wingett Sanchez (November 1, 2018). "Jan Brewer, Kelli Ward cut radio ad to help Martha McSally in U.S. Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
    173. ↑ "Maricopa County Attorney Endorses Martha McSally for United States Senate". McSally for Senate. October 3, 2018. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
    174. ↑ "Rudy Giuliani on Twitter". Twitter.
    175. ↑ Kimberly Guilfoyle. "Great to campaign with ⁦@MarthaMcSally⁩ AZ deserves a strong conservative that supports ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ ... Trump Jr. attends GOP Get Out the Vote rally". Twitter. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.
    176. ↑ "Campaign officials: Trump Jr. to campaign for McSally". Fox 10. October 29, 2018. Archived from the original on October 30, 2018. Retrieved November 9, 2018.
    177. ↑ "CCAGW PAC Endorses Rep. McSally for U.S. Senate, Three Arizona House Candidates". CCAGW PAC. September 25, 2018. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved September 30, 2018.
    178. ↑ "Small Business Endorses Congresswoman McSally for the U.S. Senate". NFIB. October 22, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
    179. ↑ "Editorial: Courier offers picks in partisan races, ballot questions". The Daily Courier. October 20, 2018. Archived from the original on November 5, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
    180. ↑ "Martha McSally for Senate". National Review. October 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
    181. ↑ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 2, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
    182. ↑ "Obama endorses Kyrsten Sinema and Democrats in Arizona governor, AG races". Retrieved October 16, 2018.
    183. ↑ Brian Schatz. "I'm also sending money to @kyrstensinema because she's in a very tough race for Senate in Arizona. Please help". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 9, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
    184. ↑ "AZ-Sen: Rep. Conor Lamb (D. PA) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Get Ready To Defeat Martha McSally (R)". Daily Kos. August 29, 2018.
    185. ↑ Grant Woods. ".@KyrstenSinema is a strong and principled leader who will be a great senator for Arizona. As a former Attorney General, I'm proud to endorse Kyrsten because I know that when it comes to keeping our families safe, Kyrsten is tough as nails. #AZsen". Twitter. Archived from the original on September 29, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
    186. ↑ Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (November 1, 2018). "Green Party candidate drops out, throws support to Kyrsten Sinema in Senate race". azcentral.
    187. ↑ Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter.
    188. ↑ Amy Schumer. "News". Twitter.
    189. ↑ McCubbin III, George (September 8, 2018). "AFGE | AFGE Endorses Arizona's Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate". www.afge.org. American Federation of Government Employees District 12. Archived from the original on September 10, 2018. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
    190. ↑ "Endorsements". Arizona AFL–CIO. August 10, 2018. Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 10, 2018.
    191. ↑ "Carpenters 2018 Midterm Arizona Endorsements | Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters". swcarpenters.org. Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
    192. ↑ "Arizona – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers. Archived from the original on October 28, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
    193. ↑ "Retiree Group Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate – Retired Americans". Retired Americans. September 19, 2018. Archived from the original on October 29, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
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    195. ↑ "Victory Fund Endorses Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema in Pivotal U.S. Senate Race". LGBTQ Victory Fund. November 9, 2017. Archived from the original on November 11, 2017. Retrieved November 11, 2017.
    196. ↑ "Candidates We Endorse and Support – NCPSSM". National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
    197. ↑ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
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    200. ↑ "Don't believe the attack ads. Here's who Kyrsten Sinema and Martha McSally really are". The Arizona Republic. October 21, 2018.
    201. ↑ "Campaign finance data". Archived from the original on September 11, 2018. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
    202. ↑ Adam Kokesh (L) with 2%
    203. ↑ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (November 7, 2018). "The McSally-Sinema Senate race is too close to call. Now what happens?". The Arizona Republic.
    204. ↑ "Counting continues in tight Arizona Senate race". KGUN 9 Tucson News. November 7, 2018.
    205. ↑ Arkin, James (November 8, 2018). "Sinema takes slim lead in too-close-to-call Arizona Senate race". POLITICO.
    206. ↑ Zarrell, Matt (November 12, 2018). "Democrat Kyrsten Sinema Declared Winner in Arizona Senate Race". ABC News. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
    207. 1 2 Leingang, Rachel. "Martha McSally concedes to Kyrsten Sinema after 'hard-fought battle'". The Arizona Republic.
    208. ↑ "It's officially over: Top Arizona officials certify November election results". KTAR.com. December 3, 2018.
    209. ↑ "Kyrsten Sinema Becomes First Female Senator Elected From Arizona". Roll Call. November 13, 2018.
    210. ↑ "2018 Election Information". 2018 Election Information | Arizona Secretary of State. Arizona Department of State. Retrieved May 16, 2020.
    211. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
    212. ↑ "Arizona Senate Election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved March 29, 2019.
    213. ↑ Martin, Jonathan; Hakim, Danny (September 4, 2018). "Jon Kyl, Former Senator, Will Replace McCain in Arizona". The New York Times. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
    214. ↑ "Kyrsten Sinema, Martha McSally sworn in as US senators". 12news.com. January 3, 2019.
    215. ↑ Mapes, Jeff (July 26, 2013). "The Ron Wyden-Gordon Smith buddy act: The Photo Vault". oregonlive.
    216. ↑ "Lawsuit Accuses Arizona Governor of Violating Constitution Over Appointment to John McCain's Senate Seat". Fortune.
    217. ↑ LeVine, Marianne (November 4, 2020). "Kelly defeats McSally in Arizona Senate race". POLITICO.
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