2012 United States Senate election in Nebraska

November 6, 2012
 
Nominee Deb Fischer Bob Kerrey
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 455,593 332,979
Percentage 57.77% 42.23%

Fischer:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Kerrey:      50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Ben Nelson
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Deb Fischer
Republican

The 2012 United States Senate election in Nebraska took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic senator Ben Nelson chose to retire instead of seeking a third term.[1] Democrat Bob Kerrey, who held this seat from 1989 to 2001, and Republican state senator Deb Fischer won their respective parties' primary elections on May 15, 2012.

Fischer won the general election with 57.8% of the vote. Her election marked the first time since 1970 that a Republican was elected to Nebraska's Class 1 Senate seat, as well as the first time that a woman was elected to a full Senate term in the state's history. This was the only Republican flip of the 2012 U.S. Senate elections. Deb Fischer's inauguration marked the first time since the resignation of Roman Hruska in 1976 where Republicans held both Senate seats from Nebraska.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Bob Kerrey, former U.S. Senator and former governor of Nebraska[2]
  • Steven Lustgarten, video production company owner[3]
  • Larry Marvin, landlord and perennial candidate[4]
  • Sherman Yates[4]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Bob Kerrey
U.S. Senators
Individuals

Results

Democratic primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Kerrey 66,586 81.0%
Democratic Chuck Hassebrook 9,886 12.0%
Democratic Steven Lustgarten 2,177 2.6%
Democratic Larry Marvin 2,076 2.5%
Democratic Sherman Yates 1,500 1.9%
Total votes 82,225 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jon
Bruning
Sharyn
Elander
Deb
Fischer
Pat
Flynn
Don
Stenberg
Spencer
Zimmerman
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 26–27, 2011 519 ±4.3% 47% 6% 7% 19% 20%
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2011 400 ±4.9% 37% 14% 6% 16% 27%
Public Policy Polling March 22–25, 2012 440 ±4.7% 46% 3% 12% 4% 18% 0% 18%
We Ask America May 6, 2012 1,173 ±2.9% 42.2% 3.4% 25.9% 4% 22.5% 2%
We Ask America May 13, 2012 1,109 ±2.95% 34% 4% 39% 3% 18% 2%
Public Policy Polling May 14, 2012 272 ±5.9% 33% 1% 37% 2% 17% 1% 7%

Endorsements

Jon Bruning
Deb Fischer
Don Stenberg

Results

Republican primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Deb Fischer 79,941 41.0%
Republican Jon Bruning 70,067 35.9%
Republican Don Stenberg 36,727 18.8%
Republican Pat Flynn 5,413 2.8%
Republican Spencer Zimmerman 1,601 0.8%
Republican Sharyn Elander 1,294 0.7%
Total votes 195,043 100.0%

General election

Candidates

  • Bob Kerrey, (Democrat), former U.S. senator and former governor of Nebraska
  • Deb Fischer, (Republican), state senator

Debates

The first debate took place at the Heartland Events Center during the Nebraska State Fair at 4 p.m. Saturday, August 25, 2012. Kerrey and Fischer participated.

The second debate took place on September 28, 2012, KETV-TV, Chamber of Commerce of Greater Omaha. Kerrey and Fischer participated.

The third debate took place on October 1, 2012, NET-TV. Kerrey and Fischer participated. Topics included agriculture policy, the economy, taxes and education.

External links

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Bob Kerrey (D) $4,877,704 $4,582,224 $295,480 $0
Deb Fischer (R) $4,536,837 $3,472,721 $1,458,122 $65,000
Source: Federal Election Commission[43][44][45]

Top contributors

[46]

Bob Kerrey Contribution Deb Fischer Contribution
Rural Media Group $62,500 Elliott Management Corporation $29,413
MacAndrews & Forbes $51,000 Hawkins Construction $20,000
Tenet Healthcare $25,650 Kelly PAC $20,000
Nix, Patterson & Roach $25,000 Tenaska Energy $17,500
Allen & Company $22,500 Werner Enterprises $15,250
Kirkland & Ellis $21,500 T&L Irrigation $13,200
Level 3 Communications $17,000 Union Pacific $11,500
Genworth Financial $16,000 Pinnacle Financial Partners $10,500
Williams Kherkher $16,000 21st Century Majority Fund $10,000
Bank of America $15,250 AG Processing $10,000

Top industries

[47]

Bob Kerrey Contribution Deb Fischer Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $293,434 Leadership PACs $165,500
Retired $219,224 Retired $124,546
Leadership PACs $203,500 Agribusiness $105,052
Financial Institutions $182,150 Commercial Banks $54,990
Entertainment Industry $119,000 Financial Institutions $54,416
Lobbyists $104,400 General Contractors $54,300
Real Estate $87,675 Real Estate $38,000
Manufacturing & Distributing $61,700 Insurance $36,000
Education $53,000 Health Professionals $31,850
Insurance $51,500 Electric Utilities $29,900

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[48] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Likely R (flip) November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[50] Likely R (flip) November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[51] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Kerrey (D)
Deb
Fischer (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports March 5, 2012 500 ±4.5% 34% 46% 10% 10%
Public Policy Polling March 22–25, 2012 1,028 ±3.1% 38% 48% 14%
Rasmussen Reports May 16, 2012 500 ±4.5% 38% 56% 2% 3%
WeAskAmerica August 14, 2012 1,273 ±2.8% 34% 55% 11%
Omaha World-Herald September 17–20, 2012 800 ±3.5% 42% 52% 6%
Pharos Research October 19–21, 2012 783 ±3.5% 46% 48% 6%
Omaha World-Herald October 23–25, 2012 800 ±3.5% 45% 48% 7%
We Ask America November 1, 2012 1,178 ±3.0% 41% 54% 5%
Hypothetical polling
With Kerrey
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Kerrey (D)
Jon
Bruning (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies January 10–11, 2012 675 ±3.77% 40% 51% 9%
Rasmussen Reports March 5, 2012 500 ±4.5% 33% 55% 4% 7%
Public Policy Polling March 22–25, 2012 1,028 ±3.1% 37% 54% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bob
Kerrey (D)
Don
Stenberg (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies January 10–11, 2012 675 ±3.77% 39% 47% 14%
Rasmussen Reports March 5, 2012 500 ±4.5% 34% 52% 5% 9%
Public Policy Polling March 22–25, 2012 1,028 ±3.1% 38% 52% 10%
With Lathrop
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Lathrop (D)
Jon
Bruning (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies January 10–11, 2012 675 ±3.77% 29% 52% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Lathrop (D)
Don
Stenberg (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies January 10–11, 2012 675 ±3.77% 27% 52% 21%
With Nelson
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ben
Nelson (D)
Jon
Bruning (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies December 15, 2010 1,789 ±2.3% 38% 52% –– 10%
Public Policy Polling January 26–27, 2011 977 ±3.1% 39% 50% –– 11%
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2011 739 ±3.6% 42% 46% –– 12%
Magellan Strategies November 20–21, 2011 645 ±3.9% 39% 45% –– 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ben
Nelson (D)
Deb
Fischer (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 26–27, 2011 977 ±3.1% 42% 35% –– 22%
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2011 739 ±3.6% 41% 39% –– 20%
Magellan Strategies November 20–21, 2011 645 ±3.9% 41% 35% –– 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ben
Nelson (D)
Pat
Flynn (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 26–27, 2011 977 ±3.1% 42% 33% –– 24%
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2011 739 ±3.6% 43% 36% –– 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ben
Nelson (D)
Dave
Heineman (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies November 20–21, 2011 645 ±3.9% 33% 51% –– 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ben
Nelson (D)
Don
Stenberg (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies December 15, 2010 1,789 ±2.3% 40% 46% –– 14%
Public Policy Polling January 26–27, 2011 977 ±3.1% 41% 45% –– 14%
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2011 739 ±3.6% 41% 44% –– 15%
Magellan Strategies November 20–21, 2011 645 ±3.9% 40% 41% –– 19%
With Robak
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Robak (D)
Jon
Bruning (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies January 10–11, 2012 675 ±3.77% 34% 51% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Robak (D)
Don
Stenberg (R)
Other Undecided
Magellan Strategies January 10–11, 2012 675 ±3.77% 32% 50% 18%

Results

United States Senate election in Nebraska, 2012[52]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Deb Fischer 455,593 57.77% +21.65%
Democratic Bob Kerrey 332,979 42.23% -21.65%
Total votes 788,572 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

By county

From Secretary of State of Nebraska[52]

County Deb Fischer

Republican

Bob Kerrey

Democratic

Total
votes
 % #  % #
Adams 64.65% 8,170 35.35% 4,468 12,638
Antelope 81.32% 2,625 18.68% 603 3,228
Arthur 86.74% 229 13.26% 35 264
Banner 84.91% 349 15.09% 62 411
Blaine 89.23% 265 10.77% 32 297
Boone 76.31% 2,139 23.69% 664 2,803
Box Butte 60.41% 2,838 39.59% 1,860 4,698
Boyd 80.36% 851 19.64% 208 1,059
Brown 86.80% 1,342 13.20% 204 1,546
Buffalo 70.01% 13,491 29.99% 5,779 19,270
Burt 59.55% 1,977 40.45% 1,343 3,320
Butler 68.86% 2,642 31.14% 1,195 3,837
Cass 59.25% 7,153 40.75% 4,919 12,072
Cedar 70.31% 3,041 29.69% 1,284 4,325
Chase 83.57% 1,546 16.43% 304 1,850
Cherry 77.91% 2,328 22.09% 660 2,988
Cheyenne 72.54% 3,344 27.46% 1,266 4,610
Clay 74.52% 2,194 25.48% 750 2,944
Colfax 65.23% 1,992 34.77% 1,062 3,054
Cuming 73.00% 2,893 27.00% 1,070 3,963
Custer 80.78% 4,439 19.22% 1,056 5,495
Dakota 45.63% 2,770 54.37% 3,300 6,070
Dawes 64.86% 2,405 35.14% 1,303 3,708
Dawson 69.54% 5,422 30.46% 2,375 7,797
Deuel 75.00% 762 25.00% 254 1,016
Dixon 60.22% 1,618 39.78% 1,069 2,687
Dodge 59.30% 8,823 40.70% 6,056 14,879
Douglas 48.25% 106,951 51.75% 114,700 221,651
Dundy 78.35% 767 21.65% 212 979
Fillmore 67.18% 1,918 32.82% 937 2,855
Franklin 72.59% 1,107 27.41% 418 1,525
Frontier 77.12% 1,008 22.88% 299 1,307
Furnas 77.43% 1,729 22.57% 504 2,233
Gage 53.74% 5,172 46.26% 4,452 9,624
Garden 75.76% 819 24.24% 262 1,081
Garfield 81.99% 774 18.01% 170 944
Gosper 75.31% 738 24.69% 242 980
Grant 83.52% 299 16.48% 59 358
Greeley 69.61% 827 30.39% 361 1,188
Hall 61.32% 12,350 38.68% 7,790 20,140
Hamilton 72.27% 3,498 27.73% 1,342 4,840
Harlan 75.64% 1329 24.36% 428 1,757
Hayes 83.49% 445 16.51% 88 533
Hitchcock 74.98% 1,112 25.02% 371 1,483
Holt 79.17% 3,896 20.83% 1,025 4,921
Hooker 82.84% 333 17.16% 69 402
Howard 67.69% 1,940 32.31% 926 2,866
Jefferson 60.04% 2,052 39.96% 1,366 3,418
Johnson 55.76% 1,147 44.24% 910 2,057
Kearney 74.08% 2,343 25.92% 820 3,163
Keith 73.76% 2,988 26.24% 1,063 4,051
Keya Paha 84.62% 407 15.38% 74 481
Kimball 73.39% 1,233 26.61% 447 1,680
Knox 71.52% 2,880 28.48% 1,147 4,027
Lancaster 46.15% 58,306 53.85% 68,046 126,352
Lincoln 66.00% 10,285 34.00% 5,298 15,583
Logan 82.45% 357 17.55% 76 433
Loup 78.71% 281 21.29% 76 357
Madison 72.92% 10,089 27.08% 3,746 13,835
McPherson 86.35% 253 13.65% 40 293
Merrick 71.44% 2,491 28.56% 996 3,487
Morrill 76.24% 1,675 23.76% 522 2,197
Nance 66.42% 1,068 33.58% 540 1,608
Nemaha 59.09% 1,901 40.91% 1,316 3,217
Nuckolls 70.21% 1,532 29.79% 650 2,182
Otoe 58.58% 4,067 41.42% 2,876 6,943
Pawnee 64.11% 861 35.89% 482 1,343
Perkins 78.60% 1,091 21.40% 297 1,388
Phelps 77.00% 3,368 23.00% 1,006 4,374
Pierce 79.55% 2,716 20.45% 698 3,414
Platte 73.13% 9,801 26.87% 3,601 13,402
Polk 74.65% 1,820 25.35% 618 2,438
Red Willow 75.25% 3,692 24.75% 1,214 4,906
Richardson 62.08% 2,312 37.92% 1,412 3,724
Rock 86.90% 683 13.10% 103 786
Saline 48.30% 2,387 51.70% 2,555 4,942
Sarpy 57.56% 40,682 42.44% 29,996 70,678
Saunders 63.72% 6,547 36.28% 3,728 10,275
Scotts Bluff 64.96% 9,299 35.04% 5,017 14,316
Seward 63.18% 4,764 36.82% 2,776 7,540
Sheridan 80.24% 1,986 19.76% 489 2,475
Sherman 63.20% 960 36.80% 559 1,519
Sioux 82.76% 605 17.24% 126 731
Stanton 74.99% 1,979 25.01% 660 2,639
Thayer 65.79% 1,742 34.21% 906 2,648
Thomas 85.23% 352 14.77% 61 413
Thurston 40.38% 900 59.62% 1,329 2,229
Valley 72.91% 1,599 27.09% 594 2,193
Washington 65.52% 6,660 34.48% 3,505 10,165
Wayne 67.56% 2,484 32.44% 1,193 3,677
Webster 69.66% 1,203 30.34% 524 1,727
Wheeler 79.78% 359 20.22% 91 450
York 74.78% 4,726 25.22% 1,594 6,320

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Fischer won all 3 congressional districts.[53]

District Fischer Kerrey Representative
1st 55.01% 44.99% Jeff Fortenberry
2nd 50.06% 49.94% Lee Terry
3rd 68.48% 31.52% Adrian Smith

See also

References

  1. "Ben Nelson retiring from Senate". Politico. December 27, 2011.
  2. "Bob Kerrey will run for U.S. Senate". Omaha World-Herald. February 29, 2012. Archived from the original on March 3, 2012. Retrieved February 29, 2012.
  3. "Omahan files as Democratic Senate candidate". Lincoln Journal Star. January 23, 2012. Retrieved February 15, 2012.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Scalora, Christine (May 6, 2012). "Alternative candidates: Issues drew them to Senate race". North Platte Bulletin. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
  5. "Nebraska: Democratic Field Clears for Bob Kerrey | At the Races". Archived from the original on March 11, 2012. Retrieved March 8, 2012.
  6. Star, DON WALTON / Lincoln Journal (December 29, 2011). "Beutler brushes off Senate speculation; Nelson staff mulls campaign funds". JournalStar.com.
  7. 1 2 Shefte, Jordan (December 28, 2011). "Jane Kleeb comments on Senator Nelson's retirement". KHAS-TV. Archived from the original on May 11, 2012. Retrieved December 29, 2011.
  8. Sullivan, Sean (February 13, 2012). "Lathrop Won't Run for Ben Nelson's Seat". National Journal. Archived from the original on October 19, 2012. Retrieved February 13, 2012.
  9. Bresnahan, John (December 27, 2011). "Ben Nelson: 'It's time to move on'". POLITICO.
  10. "Robak out of Senate race, too - Omaha.com". Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  11. "Our Campaigns - NE US Senate Race - Nov 06, 2012". www.ourcampaigns.com.
  12. Morton, Joseph (November 2, 2012). "Todd Packer finally picks a side in Nebraska Senate race". Omaha World Herald.
  13. 1 2 "Official Report of the Board of State Canvassers of the State of Nebraska" (PDF). Secretary of State of Nebraska. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 8, 2018. Retrieved June 17, 2012.
  14. Tysver, Robynn (January 5, 2011). "Bruning makes Senate bid official". Omaha World-Herald. Archived from the original on January 13, 2011. Retrieved January 5, 2011.
  15. "Fischer kicks off U.S. Senate bid - Omaha.com". Archived from the original on August 6, 2012. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  16. Walton, Don (November 19, 2010). "Pat Flynn launches GOP Senate campaign". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved November 22, 2010.
  17. "Nebraska Treasurer to Enter GOP Senate Primary". Roll Call. February 28, 2011.
  18. Walton, Don (June 18, 2011). "Republican Senate field becoming crowded". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved June 18, 2011.
  19. 1 2 Tysver, Robynn (December 15, 2010). "More Republicans eyeing Senate?". Omaha World-Herald. Archived from the original on April 30, 2011. Retrieved December 15, 2010.
  20. Warneke, Kent (November 9, 2010). "Senate race doesn't interest Flood". Omaha World-Herald. Archived from the original on November 11, 2010. Retrieved November 19, 2010.
  21. Walton, Don (January 9, 2012). "Fortenberry won't seek Senate seat". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved January 9, 2012.
  22. Paul HammelWORLD-HERALD BUREAU. "Heineman: No Senate bid in 2012". Omaha.com. Archived from the original on June 16, 2011. Retrieved November 5, 2010.
  23. "Nebraska Senate GOP Primary Gets a New Candidate : Roll Call Politics". Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  24. Walton, Don (January 3, 2011). "Don Walton: Electoral vote battle looms". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved January 3, 2011.
  25. Beck, Margery A. (November 14, 2010). "US Senate race wide open for Neb. GOP candidates". Associated Press. Retrieved December 10, 2010.
  26. "No Senate bid for Fortenberry - Omaha.com". Archived from the original on January 12, 2012. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  27. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Jon Bruning for Senate - Endorsements". Archived from the original on March 15, 2014. Retrieved May 8, 2012.
  28. Walton, Don (May 25, 2011). "Mike Huckabee endorses Jon Bruning". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved November 17, 2011.
  29. Walton, Don (June 30, 2011). "Mike Flood endorses Bruning Senate bid". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved January 24, 2012.
  30. "Arizona sheriff endorses Bruning". Lincoln Journal Star. February 20, 2012. Retrieved February 24, 2012.
  31. "Our Campaigns - Candidate - Bill Schuette".
  32. Toeplitz, Shira (May 11, 2011). "Tea Party Express Endorses Jon Bruning in Nebraska". Roll Call. Retrieved November 17, 2011.
  33. "American Future Fund Political Action". Archived from the original on August 24, 2011. Retrieved November 17, 2011.
  34. Walton, Don (May 10, 2012). "Fortenberry endorsement adds to Fischer surge". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  35. 1 2 Livingston, Abby (May 9, 2012). "Sarah Palin Endorses Deb Fischer in Nebraska Senate Race". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 12, 2012. Retrieved May 11, 2012.
  36. "Protecting Life : Deb Fischer 2012". Archived from the original on May 20, 2012. Retrieved May 15, 2012.
  37. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 "Endorsements | Stenberg for Senate 2012". Archived from the original on November 18, 2011. Retrieved April 19, 2012.
  38. Walton, Don (November 8, 2011). "DeMint endorses Stenberg, sponsors fundraising drive". Lincoln Journal Star. Retrieved November 17, 2011.
  39. Pershing, Ben (October 18, 2011). "Mike Lee looks to carve a niche on the campaign trail". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 17, 2011.
  40. Senate 2012, Don Stenberg for U. S. "Ken Blackwell, an NRA & Club for Growth Board Member, Endorses Don Stenberg in Nebraska". PRLog.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  41. Catanese, David (July 29, 2011). "Stenberg wins Mark Levin primary". POLITICO.
  42. "FreedomWorks PAC Endorses Don Stenberg in the Nebraska Senate Race". www.businesswire.com. September 28, 2011.
  43. "J. Robert Kerrey". Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on December 16, 2012. Retrieved January 27, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  44. "Debra S. Fischer". Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on December 10, 2012. Retrieved January 27, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  45. "Paul Russell Anderson". Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on December 16, 2012. Retrieved January 27, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  46. Kansas District 04 2012 RaceOpenSecrets
  47. "Kansas District 04 2012 Race". OpenSecrets.
  48. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  49. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  50. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  51. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  52. 1 2 "Official Results of Nebraska General Election - November 6, 2012". Nebraska Secretary of State. p. 12. Retrieved January 2, 2013.
  53. "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index".
Official campaign websites
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