2004 United States Senate election in Washington
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee Patty Murray George Nethercutt
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,549,708 1,204,584
Percentage 54.98% 42.74%
County results
Murray:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Nethercutt:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%
U.S. senator before election

Patty Murray
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Patty Murray
Democratic

The 2004 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Patty Murray won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican U.S. Representative George Nethercutt. She became only the fourth Washington senator to win 3 consecutive terms, just after fellow Democrats Warren G. Magnuson and Scoop Jackson. Nethercutt was known for having defeated Tom Foley, the sitting Speaker of the House of Representatives, as part of the 1994 Republican wave.

Term limits became an issue in the campaign, as Democrats seized on Nethercutt's broken term-limits pledge that he had made when he had unseated Foley in 1994. Geography was also against Nethercutt, who was severely hampered by his lack of name recognition in the more densely populated western part of the state, home to two-thirds of the state's population. Washington has not elected a Senator from east of the Cascades since Clarence Dill in 1928. Other important issues included national security and the war in Iraq. Nethercutt supported the invasion of Iraq, while Murray opposed it.

Nethercutt was considered a heavy underdog from the start, and his campaign never gained much traction. In November, he lost by 12 points, receiving 43 percent of the vote to Murray's 55 percent. He only carried two counties west of the Cascades.

Major candidates

Democratic

Republican

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[1] Likely D November 1, 2004

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[2]		 Margin
of error		 Patty
Murray (D)		 George
Nethercutt (R)		 Undecided
SurveyUSA October 29–31, 2004 622 (LV) ± 4% 51% 45% 3%
Strategic Vision (R) October 29–31, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 50% 42% 8%
Strategic Vision (R) October 24–26, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 49% 41% 10%
Mason-Dixon October 25–26, 2004 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 53% 39% 8%
SurveyUSA October 23–25, 2004 618 (LV) ± 4% 55% 41% 4%
Strategic Vision (R) October 16–18, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 49% 41% 10%
SurveyUSA October 15–17, 2004 634 (LV) ± 4% 56% 38% 6%
Elway Research October 14–16, 2004 405 (RV) ± 5% 54% 37% 9%
Strategic Vision (R) October 4–6, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 49% 41% 10%
SurveyUSA October 2–4, 2004 640 (LV) ± 4% 57% 38% 5%
Strategic Vision (R) September 20–22, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 48% 41% 11%
SurveyUSA September 19–21, 2004 627 (LV) ± 4% 53% 41% 6%
Elway Research September 17–19, 2004 405 (RV) ± 5% 57% 37% 6%
Strategic Vision (R) September 4–6, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 48% 41% 11%
Strategic Vision (R) August 21–23, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 49% 41% 10%
SurveyUSA August 15–17, 2004 602 (LV) ± 4.1% 53% 39% 10%
Strategic Vision (R) August 9–11, 2004 801 (LV) ± 3% 49% 40% 11%
SurveyUSA Jul 31–Aug 2, 2004 585 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 40% 9%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) June 23–28, 2004 800 (RV) ± 3.8% 56% 33% 11%
Moore Information (R) June 23–24, 2004 500 (RV) ± 4% 51% 39% 10%
Mason-Dixon (D) June 9–11, 2004 625 (RV) ± 4% 53% 34% 13%
SurveyUSA June 1–3, 2004 654 (RV) ± 4% 49% 34% 17%
Tarrance Group (R) May 2–3, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 50.6% 41.1% 8.3%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) April 22–27, 2004 800 (LV) ± 3.8% 54% 31% 15%
Tarrance Group (R) May 5–6, 2003 504 (LV) ± 4.5% 52% 37% 11%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[2]		 Margin
of error		 Patty
Murray (D)		 George
Nethercutt (R)		 Reed
Davis (R)		 Undecided
Elway Research January 27–29, 2004 405 (V) ± 5% 49% 19% 5% 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[2]		 Margin
of error		 Patty
Murray (D)		 Jennifer
Dunn (R)		 Undecided
for NRSC (R) January 2003 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 42% 12%

Results

The election was not close, with Murray winning by 12.24% of the vote. Although Murray failed to win any counties in the eastern part of the state, she pulled down big margins from the western part of the state, which is significantly more populated. Specifically, Murray trounced Nethercutt in King County, home of Seattle, the most populous county in the state. Murray was sworn in for a third term on January 3, 2005.

General election results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Patty Murray (Incumbent) 1,549,708 54.98%
Republican George Nethercutt 1,204,584 42.74%
Libertarian J. Mills 34,055 1.21%
Green Mark Wilson 30,304 1.08%
Total votes 2,818,651 100.00%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

    References

    1. ↑ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
    2. 1 2 3 Key:
      A – all adults
      RV – registered voters
      LV – likely voters
      V – unclear
    3. ↑ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
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