2004 United States presidential election in Montana
November 2, 2004
Turnout70.6% (of registered voters)
64.2% (of voting age population)
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 266,063 173,710
Percentage 59.07% 38.56%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Montana was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 20.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid R
Cook Political Report Solid R
Research 2000 Solid R
Zogby International Likely R
Washington Post Likely R
Washington Dispatch Likely R
Washington Times Solid R
The New York Times Solid R
CNN Likely R
Newsweek Solid R
Associated Press Solid R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R

Polling

Only a few pre-election polls were taken here. Bush won each one of them with a double-digit margin and with at least 54% of the vote. The final 3 polling average showed him leading 55% to 35%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $385,635.[3] Kerry raised $145,679.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

Bush's key to victory was winning the highly populated Yellowstone County with 60% along with the majority of other counties. Kerry only won six counties in the state, including swinging Missoula County and his best performance in the Democratic stronghold of Deer Lodge County.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Montana[7]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 266,063 59.07% 3
Democratic John Kerry 173,710 38.56% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 6,168 1.37% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 1,764 0.39% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 1,733 0.38% 0
Green David Cobb 996 0.22% 0
Write Ins. - 11 0.00% 0
Totals 450,445 100.00% 6
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 64.2%

By county

County George W. Bush
Republican		 John Kerry
Democratic		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Beaverhead 3,067 72.30% 1,103 26.00% 72 1.70% 1,964 46.30% 4,242
Big Horn 2,028 47.04% 2,215 51.38% 68 1.58% -187 -4.34% 4,311
Blaine 1,424 51.45% 1,300 46.97% 44 1.59% 124 4.48% 2,768
Broadwater 1,778 75.47% 533 22.62% 45 1.90% 1,245 52.85% 2,356
Carbon 3,342 62.81% 1,847 34.71% 132 2.48% 1,495 28.10% 5,321
Carter 623 87.87% 76 10.72% 10 1.41% 547 77.15% 709
Cascade 19,028 56.87% 13,701 40.95% 730 2.18% 5,327 15.92% 33,459
Chouteau 1,913 65.49% 946 32.39% 62 2.12% 967 33.10% 2,921
Custer 3,297 65.31% 1,630 32.29% 121 2.40% 1,667 33.02% 5,048
Daniels 764 68.28% 326 29.13% 29 2.59% 438 39.15% 1,119
Dawson 2,884 64.32% 1,494 33.32% 106 2.36% 1,390 31.00% 4,484
Deer Lodge 1,725 37.97% 2,700 59.43% 118 2.60% -975 -21.46% 4,543
Fallon 1,178 79.01% 289 19.38% 24 1.61% 889 59.63% 1,491
Fergus 4,425 72.22% 1,582 25.82% 120 1.96% 2,843 46.40% 6,127
Flathead 26,019 67.27% 11,587 29.96% 1,072 2.77% 14,432 37.31% 38,678
Gallatin 22,392 56.20% 16,405 41.18% 1,045 2.62% 5,987 15.02% 39,842
Garfield 590 90.08% 52 7.94% 13 1.98% 538 82.14% 655
Glacier 1,828 40.07% 2,641 57.89% 93 2.04% -813 -17.82% 4,562
Golden Valley 396 75.86% 119 22.80% 7 1.34% 277 53.06% 522
Granite 1,144 71.28% 404 25.17% 57 3.55% 740 46.11% 1,605
Hill 3,505 52.65% 2,997 45.02% 155 2.33% 508 7.63% 6,657
Jefferson 3,844 65.51% 1,881 32.06% 143 2.44% 1,963 33.45% 5,868
Judith Basin 944 73.41% 322 25.04% 20 1.56% 622 48.37% 1,286
Lake 7,245 57.61% 4,960 39.44% 371 2.95% 2,285 18.17% 12,576
Lewis and Clark 16,494 55.27% 12,717 42.61% 632 2.12% 3,777 12.66% 29,843
Liberty 734 71.06% 281 27.20% 18 1.74% 453 43.86% 1,033
Lincoln 5,889 69.70% 2,320 27.46% 240 2.84% 3,569 42.24% 8,449
Madison 2,868 72.92% 983 24.99% 82 2.08% 1,885 47.93% 3,933
McCone 791 69.57% 320 28.14% 26 2.29% 471 41.43% 1,137
Meagher 698 71.74% 247 25.39% 28 2.88% 451 46.35% 973
Mineral 1,242 67.61% 542 29.50% 53 2.89% 700 38.11% 1,837
Missoula 23,989 45.73% 26,983 51.44% 1,482 2.83% -2,994 -5.71% 52,454
Musselshell 1,663 74.01% 538 23.94% 46 2.05% 1,125 50.07% 2,247
Park 4,771 58.06% 3,199 38.93% 248 3.02% 1,572 19.13% 8,218
Petroleum 228 78.08% 55 18.84% 9 3.08% 173 59.24% 292
Phillips 1,677 77.28% 456 21.01% 37 1.71% 1,221 56.27% 2,170
Pondera 1,853 64.79% 956 33.43% 51 1.78% 897 31.36% 2,860
Powder River 856 83.19% 154 14.97% 19 1.85% 702 68.22% 1,029
Powell 1,993 70.42% 761 26.89% 76 2.69% 1,232 43.53% 2,830
Prairie 546 74.18% 181 24.59% 9 1.22% 365 49.59% 736
Ravalli 13,279 66.84% 6,144 30.93% 444 2.23% 7,135 35.91% 19,867
Richland 3,110 72.19% 1,120 26.00% 78 1.81% 1,990 46.19% 4,308
Roosevelt 1,762 43.74% 2,195 54.49% 71 1.76% -433 -10.75% 4,028
Rosebud 1,982 55.29% 1,520 42.40% 83 2.32% 462 12.89% 3,585
Sanders 3,461 67.16% 1,502 29.15% 190 3.69% 1,959 38.01% 5,153
Sheridan 1,159 56.87% 846 41.51% 33 1.62% 313 15.36% 2,038
Silver Bow 6,381 39.67% 9,307 57.86% 396 2.46% -2,926 -18.19% 16,084
Stillwater 3,090 73.34% 1,025 24.33% 98 2.33% 2,065 49.01% 4,213
Sweet Grass 1,509 76.10% 445 22.44% 29 1.46% 1,064 53.66% 1,983
Teton 2,232 66.45% 1,047 31.17% 80 2.38% 1,185 35.28% 3,359
Toole 1,583 68.50% 690 29.86% 38 1.64% 893 38.64% 2,311
Treasure 348 72.20% 121 25.10% 13 2.70% 227 47.10% 482
Valley 2,476 61.62% 1,431 35.61% 111 2.76% 1,045 26.01% 4,018
Wheatland 706 72.11% 250 25.54% 23 2.35% 456 46.57% 979
Wibaux 407 72.68% 144 25.71% 9 1.61% 263 46.97% 560
Yellowstone 40,903 61.71% 24,120 36.39% 1,263 1.90% 16,783 25.32% 66,286
Totals266,06359.07%173,71038.56%10,6722.37%92,35320.51%450,445
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District Bush Kerry Representative
At-large 59.1% 38.6% Denny Rehberg

Electors

Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Montana is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All three were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[8]

  1. Jack Galt
  2. Thelma Baker
  3. John Brenden

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved June 6, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ↑ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved February 17, 2022.
  3. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved February 17, 2022.
  4. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved February 17, 2022.
  5. ↑ "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved February 16, 2022.
  6. ↑ "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved February 16, 2022.
  7. ↑ "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Montana". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved February 17, 2022.
  8. ↑ "Not Found". Archived from the original on April 25, 2006. Retrieved October 10, 2009.
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