2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
November 4, 2014
 
Nominee Tom Cotton Mark Pryor
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 478,819 334,174
Percentage 56.50% 39.43%
County results
Cotton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Pryor:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Mark Pryor
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Tom Cotton
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 56.5%-39.4%.[1] The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed.[2] This marked the first time since Reconstruction in 1877 that Republicans held both Senate seats in Arkansas, and the Arkansas congressional delegation was entirely Republican.

Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and was until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.

Background

Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[3] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were successfully re-elected.[4]

Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[5] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[6]

The election was originally thought to be extremely close- a claim backed up by polling, but Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points.[7]

Democratic primary

Pryor was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Republican primary

Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

  • Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive[15]
  • Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010[15]

General election

Endorsements

Tom Cotton (R)
Mark Pryor (D)

Fundraising

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Mark Pryor (D) $10,428,246 $12,034,784 $364,653
Tom Cotton (R) $7,557,443 $6,411,763 $1,885,435

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[22] Tossup November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Likely R (flip) November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[24] Lean R (flip) November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[25] Lean R (flip) November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Mark
Pryor (D)		 Tom
Cotton (R)		 Other Undecided
Basswood Research March 16–17, 2013 600 ± 4% 35% 43% — 22%
Basswood Research June 22–23, 2013 600 ± 4% 41% 40% — 19%
Clark Research July 23–27, 2013 729 ± 4% 43% 35% — 21%
On Message Inc. July 29–30, 2013 600 ± 4% 42% 44% — 14%
Harper Polling August 4–5, 2013 587 ± 4.04% 41% 43% — 16%
Polling Company/WomanTrend August 6–7, 2013 600 ± 4% 45% 43% — 12%
Global Strategy Group August 26–29, 2013 501 ± ?% 47% 40% — 13%
Harper Polling September 24–26, 2013 622 ± 3.93% 45% 42% — 13%
Talk Business/Hendrix College October 8, 2013 603 ± 4% 42% 41% — 17%
Public Policy Polling October 14–15, 2013 955 ± 3.2% 44% 41% — 15%
University of Arkansas October 10–17, 2013 800 ± 3.5% 34% 32% — 34%
Impact Management Group October 24, 2013 911 ± 3.2% 41% 42% — 18%
Polling Company/WomanTrend December 6–7, 2013 400 ± 4.9% 41% 48% — 9%
Public Policy Polling December 13–15, 2013 1,004 ± 3.1% 44% 44% — 12%
Rasmussen Reports February 4–5, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% 45% 5% 10%
Harper Polling January 26–27, 2014 533 ± 4.24% 36% 42% — 22%
Impact Management Group February 10, 2014 1,202 ± 2.83% 42% 46% — 13%
Hickman Analytics February 17–20, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 39% 41% 8% 12%
42% 51% — 8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research March 27 – April 2, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 45% — 7%
Talk Business/Hendrix College April 3–4, 2014 1,068 ± 3% 46% 43% 4%[26] 8%
Opinion Research Associates April 1–8, 2014 400 ± 5% 48% 38% — 8%
Harper Polling April 9–10, 2014 522 ± 4.29% 39% 39% — 22%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014 857 ± 4% 46% 36% 4% 15%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 857 ± 3.35% 43% 46% 4% 7%
Public Policy Polling April 25–27, 2014 840 ± 3.4% 43% 42% — 16%
NBC News/Marist April 30 – May 4, 2014 876 ± 3.3% 51% 40% 1% 3%
Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 43% 47% 4% 6%
Public Opinion Strategies May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.39% 41% 46% — 13%
Fabrizio Lee June 3–5, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 51% — 5%
Magellan Strategies June 4–5, 2014 755 ± 3.57% 45% 49% 2% 4%
Impact Management Group June 29, 2014 1290 ± 2.72% 43% 47% — 10%
Gravis Marketing July 7–8, 2014 987 ± 3% 44% 51% 5%[27] —
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,628 ± 2.9% 45% 49% 1% 5%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research July 20–24, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 46% — 6%
Talk Business/Hendrix College July 22–25, 2014 1,780 ± 2.3% 42% 44% 7%[28] 7%
Public Policy Polling August 1–3, 2014 1,066 ± 3% 39% 41% 7%[28] 14%
41% 43% — 16%
Opinion Research Associates August 6–14, 2014 414 ± 4.9% 46% 41% 4%[26] 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 25–26, 2014 750 ± 4% 44% 43% 6% 6%
ccAdvertising August 31 – September 1, 2014 1,735 ± ? 29% 37% — 34%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,572 ± 3% 39% 43% 2% 16%
CNN/ORC International August 28 – September 2, 2014 523 LV ± 4.5% 47% 49% — 4%
839 RV ± 3.5% 47% 38% — 14%
Hickman Analytics August 26 – September 3, 2014 700 ± 3.7% 45% 43% — 12%
NBC News/Marist September 2–4, 2014 639 LV ± 3.9% 40% 45% 6%[29] 9%
1,068 RV ± 3% 41% 41% 8%[30] 11%
Answers Unlimited September 7–9, 2014 600 ± 3.5% 46% 42% 4%[26] 8%
Gravis Marketing September 8–11, 2014 902 ± 4% 43% 47% 2%[27] 8%
Hickman Analytics September 13–18, 2014 801 ± 3.5% 46% 43% — 11%
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 2014 1,453 ± 2.6% 38% 43% 6%[31] 13%
39% 45% — 15%
Suffolk September 20–23, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 45% 43% 5%[31] 7%
Rasmussen Reports September 24–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 40% 47% 5% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,991 ± 2% 41% 45% 1% 13%
Opinion Research Associates October 1–5, 2014 400 ± 5% 45% 42% 5% 9%
Fox News October 4–7, 2014 707 ± 3.5% 39% 46% 5%[32] 11%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–15, 2014 940 ± 3% 44% 47% 4% 5%
Talk Business/Hendrix October 15–16, 2014 2,075 ± 2.2% 40.5% 49% 5%[33] 6%
NBC News/Marist October 19–23, 2014 621 ± 3.9% 43% 45% 6%[29] 7%
971 ± 3.1% 43% 42% 6%[29] 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,567 ± 4% 42% 47% 1% 10%
Opinion Research Associates October 25–26, 2014 401 ± 5% 45% 44% 2%[34] 10%
Issues & Answers Network October 21–27, 2014 568 ± 4.1% 36% 49% — 15%
Rasmussen Reports October 27–29, 2014 967 ± 3% 44% 51% 4% 2%
Public Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 2014 1,092 ± 3% 41% 49% 4%[35] 5%
45% 51% — 4%
Opinion Research Associates October 30 – November 1, 2014 400 ± 5% 45% 43% 4%[35] 8%

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2014[36]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Tom Cotton 478,819 56.50% N/A
Democratic Mark Pryor (incumbent) 334,174 39.43% -40.10%
Libertarian Nathan LaFrance 17,210 2.03% N/A
Green Mark Swaney 16,797 1.98% -18.49%
Write-in 505 0.06% N/A
Total votes 847,505 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

  1. ↑ "November 4, 2014 Arkansas General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election OFFICIAL RESULTS". November 4, 2014. Retrieved September 8, 2022.
  2. ↑ Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas". POLITICO.
  3. ↑ "Blog Archive » Rebekah Kennedy Pulls Record Results for U.S. Senate - America's #1 Source for Green Party News & Views". Green Party Watch. November 7, 2008. Retrieved September 4, 2010.
  4. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (August 5, 2013). "Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014". Smart Politics.
  5. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (March 20, 2013). "Tom Cotton's Quandary: Can House Freshmen Win Senate Seats?". Smart Politics.
  6. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?". Smart Politics.
  7. ↑ Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas". POLITICO. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  8. ↑ "Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election in 2014". Arkansas Times. April 19, 2012.
  9. ↑ "D.C. GOP can't get a pulse on Arkansas". Natural State Report. July 31, 2013. Archived from the original on August 1, 2013.
  10. ↑ Glueck, Katie (July 31, 2013). "Arkansas's Tom Cotton to run for U.S. Senate". Politico.
  11. ↑ Daniels, Alex; Frago, Charlie (November 12, 2012). "Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in '14". Arkansas Online.
  12. ↑ DeMillo, Andrew (August 13, 2013). "Mark Darr Announces Run for Arkansas' 4th District Seat". Arkansas Business. Associated Press.
  13. ↑ "Griffin Wins Seat on Ways and Means Committee, Will Not Seek Higher Office in 2014". talkbusiness.net. Archived from the original on December 3, 2012.
  14. 1 2 3 Saylor, Ryan (August 7, 2013). "Democrats, Republicans React To Cotton, Changing Political Landscape". Talk Business Arkansas. Retrieved August 13, 2013.
  15. 1 2 "Candidates who filed for office in Arkansas". sfgate.com. March 3, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
  16. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle. "Club for Growth Backs Mark Pryor Challenger". Roll Call. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
  17. ↑ Leary, Alex. "Rubio endorses Tom Cotton in Arkansas Senate race". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  18. ↑ Kubin, Jacquie. "Allen West Guardian Fund 2014: Endorsing tomorrow's leaders". The Washington Times. Retrieved September 19, 2013.
  19. ↑ "Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races". Patriot Voices. April 22, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2014.
  20. ↑ "Political Note: Romney Endorses Cotton". Time Record Online Edition. June 13, 2014. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  21. ↑ Brantley, Max (April 25, 2014). "UPDATE: Arkansas Education Association to endorse Mark Pryor. And, boy, did he go after Cotton today on Medicare, Social Security". Arkansas Times. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  22. ↑ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  23. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  24. ↑ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  25. ↑ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  26. 1 2 3 Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  27. 1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L)
  28. 1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
  29. 1 2 3 Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
  30. ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
  31. 1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  32. ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
  33. ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  34. ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
  35. 1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  36. ↑ "November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2014.
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