2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas
November 8, 2016
Turnout38.39%
 
Nominee John Boozman Conner Eldridge
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 661,984 400,602
Percentage 59.77% 36.17%
Boozman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Eldridge:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

John Boozman
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent senator John Boozman won re-election to a second term in office, becoming the first Republican senator reelected in the history of the state. Former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge was the only Democrat to declare his candidacy. The primaries were held March 1.[1] This is also the first election that the state has simultaneously voted for a Republican Senate candidate and a Republican presidential candidate.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
Boozman		 Curtis
Coleman		 Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College February 4, 2016 457 ± 4.6% 68% 23% 9%

Results

Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Boozman (incumbent) 298,039 76.45%
Republican Curtis Coleman 91,795 23.55%
Total votes 389,834 100.00%

Democratic primary

Conner Eldridge was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Eldridge campaigning

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Conner Eldridge 214,228 100.00%
Total votes 214,228 100.00%

Third parties

The Libertarian Party of Arkansas held a special nominating convention on October 24, 2015, to select nominees for elections in 2016. Frank Gilbert was selected as the nominee for the U.S. Senate race.[5]

Candidates

Nominated

  • Frank Gilbert, DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014[5]

General election

Candidates

Debates

Dates Location Boozman Eldridge Gilbert Link
October 12, 2016 Little Rock, Arkansas Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Safe R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] Safe R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[8] Safe R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[9] Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[10] Safe R November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
Boozman (R)		 Conner
Eldridge (D)		 Frank
Gilbert (L)		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 930 ± 4.6% 56% 41% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 798 ± 4.6% 55% 42% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 696 ± 4.6% 56% 43% — — 1%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 593 ± 4.6% 54% 43% — — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 475 ± 4.6% 52% 46% — — 2%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 484 ± 4.6% 54% 44% — — 2%
University of Arkansas October 18–25, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 61% 38% — 1% —
Talk Business/Hendrix College October 21, 2016 463 ± 4.6% 52% 34% 4% 2% 8%
Talk Business/Hendrix College September 15–17, 2016 831 ± 3.4% 55% 29% 5% 3% 8%
Emerson College September 9–13, 2016 600 ± 3.6% 44% 30% — 11% 15%
Talk Business/Hendrix College June 21, 2016 751 ± 3.6% 51% 29% 6% — 14%
Hypothetical polling
with Mike Beebe
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 John
Boozman (R)		 Mike
Beebe (D)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 1–3, 2014 1,066 ± 3% 40% 46% — 14%
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 2014 1,453 ± 2.6% 39% 49% — 12%
Talk Business/Hendrix College June 8–11, 2015 1,183 ± 1.84% 37% 45% — 18%

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2016[11]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Boozman (incumbent) 661,984 59.77% +1.87%
Democratic Conner Eldridge 400,602 36.17% -0.78%
Libertarian Frank Gilbert 43,866 3.96% +0.72%
Write-in 1,070 0.10% N/A
Total votes 1,107,522 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democrtaic to Republican

References

  1. ↑ "Conner Eldridge to Challenge Boozman for U.S. Senate Seat | Times Record". Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  2. ↑ DeMillo, Andrew (June 9, 2014). "Boozman, back at work post-surgery, to run in '16". Associated Press. Retrieved June 9, 2014.
  3. ↑ "Preferential Primary and Nonpartisan General Election official Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
  4. ↑ Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2015). "Former U.S. Attorney Will Challenge Boozman in Arkansas". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved September 9, 2015.
  5. 1 2 Brawner, Steve (October 25, 2015). "Arkansas Libertarians Nominate 23, Including Full Congressional Slate". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved October 27, 2015.
  6. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  7. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  8. ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  9. ↑ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  10. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  11. ↑ "2016 General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election Unofficial County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2016.
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