2016 Ohio Democratic presidential primary
March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 81 62
Popular vote 696,681 535,395
Percentage 56.12% 43.13%
Results by county:
Clinton:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%
Sanders:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%

The 2016 Ohio Democratic presidential primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio as one of the Democratic Party's primaries prior to the 2016 presidential election.

The same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states and a caucus in the Northern Mariana Islands, as well as their own Ohio primary.

Clinton handily won the primary, putting her upset Rust Belt loss in Michigan behind her.[1] She earned congressional endorsements from Reps. Tim Ryan, Joyce Beatty, Marcia Fudge and Sen. Sherrod Brown, while Sanders earned one Ohio backer, Rep. Marcy Kaptur.[2]

Background

By the time Ohio held its primaries, voters from 21 states and two territories already cast their vote for the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party. As of the March 12 elections, Hillary Clinton was projected to have earned 775 pledged delegates to Bernie Sanders' 552.[3] Clinton gained significant victories in the Southern United States, often described as her "firewall",[4] including landslide victories in Mississippi and Alabama and Georgia.[5][6] Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders gained victories in the Midwestern United States,[7] where Ohio resides, including an upset victory in neighboring Michigan on March 8.[8][9] After the fact, Sanders' campaign took advantage of the momentum gained from the Michigan win, by targeting Illinois, Missouri and Ohio in the March 15 elections, hoping to repeat the same result. Sanders stated that "Not only is Michigan the gateway to the rest of the industrial Midwest, the results there show that we are a national campaign."[10]

Before the Michigan primaries, Clinton and Sanders had debated over economic policies relating to the industrial midwest states and the so-called "rust belt". The disagreements centered around trade deals, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Clinton's past support of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and its effect on economies such as Michigan and Ohio.[11][12]

Controversy

Ohio is one of at least seventeen states that has laws allowing voters who are 17 years of age, but will be 18 by the time of the general election, to vote in the presidential primaries.[13] However, Ohio Secretary of State Jon A. Husted had announced in December 2015 that 17 year olds would be outright barred from participating in the 2016 primaries. The rationale for the decision was based on an interpretation of the law in which 17 year olds could "nominate" officials for office, but not "elect". In the case of the presidential primaries, by definition, voters would be electing officials - delegates to each party's presidential nominating convention.[14] The decision was met with criticism by the public, after it was brought to mainstream attention by Representative Kathleen Clyde, after she condemned the rule in a statement released on March 5. Clyde described it as a "underhanded, backroom attack" against young voters.[15] Nine teenagers filed a lawsuit with the Ohio Courts of Common Pleas in Franklin County over the decision, stating that the decision contradicted state law and a decision by the Supreme Court of Ohio that allowed 17 year olds turning 18 by the general election to vote.[16]

Bernie Sanders' campaign, whose voter base includes the majority of young voters,[17][18] also filed a lawsuit against the decision, accusing Husted of "arbitrarily" and "unconsititutionally" discriminating against young African-American and Latino voters, citing data from the 2010 United States Census that shows younger voters in Ohio where mostly African-American and Latino.[19][20] Husted, in response to Sanders' lawsuit, said in a public statement that he welcomed the lawsuit, further stating that "I am very happy to be sued on this issue because the law is crystal clear",[19] though, he later spoke out negatively against the lawsuit, claiming that it was "a last-minute political act", designed to "draw attention to his campaign."[21] Many Ohio officials, past and present, such as former Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, came out in support of Sanders' lawsuit,[22] and had attracted protests by not only Bernie Sanders supporters, but also Donald Trump supporters as well.[23] In a decision handed down on March 11, an Ohio state judge ruled in favour of both lawsuits by the teenage group and the Sanders campaign, effectively lifting the ban on 17 year olds from voting in the Ohio presidential primaries.[24] Husted initially announced that he would appeal the ruling,[25] however, after learning that such an appeal wouldn't be heard by the court until the day before the primaries, he retracted his intent to appeal.[26]

Debates and forums

March 13, 2016 – Columbus, Ohio

The ninth forum was held at 8:00 pm EDT on March 13, 2016, at the campus of Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and aired on CNN.[27]

March 14, 2016 – Columbus, Ohio and Springfield, Illinois

The tenth forum was held at 6:00 pm EDT on March 14, 2016, at the campus of Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, and at the Old State Capitol State Historic Site (Illinois) in Springfield, Illinois. It aired on MSNBC. The first section of the town hall with Bernie Sanders was moderated by Chuck Todd; the second section of the town hall with Hillary Clinton was moderated by Chris Matthews.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Primary results March 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56.1%		 Bernie Sanders
43.1%		 Other
0.8%
ARG[28]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

 March 12–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%		 Bernie Sanders
45%		 Others / Undecided
3%
Monmouth[29]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

 March 11–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
54%		 Bernie Sanders
40%		 Others / Undecided
6%
Quinnipiac[30]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 543

 March 8–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%		 Bernie Sanders
46%		 Others / Undecided
4%
Public Policy Polling[31]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 502

 March 11–12, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%		 Bernie Sanders
41%		 Others / Undecided
13%
CBS News/YouGov[32]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 777

 March 9–11, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%		 Bernie Sanders
43%		 Others / Undecided
5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist[33]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 453

 March 4–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%		 Bernie Sanders
38%		 Others / Undecided
4%
Quinnipiac[34]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 521

 March 2–7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%		 Bernie Sanders
43%		 Others / Undecided
5%
Public Polling Policy

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 508

 March 4–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56%		 Bernie Sanders
35%		 Others / Undecided
9%
CNN/ORC[35]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 294

 March 2–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
63%		 Bernie Sanders
33%		 Others / Undecided
4%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 518

 February 16–20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%		 Bernie Sanders
40%		 Others / Undecided
5%
BW Community Research Institute

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 385

 February 11–20, 2016 Bernie Sanders
45%		 Hillary Clinton
44%		 Others / Undecided
11%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 1,138

 January 12–14, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%		 Bernie Sanders
37%		 Not sure 10%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Quinnipiac University[36]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 396

 September 25 – October 5, 2015 Hillary Clinton
40%		 Joe Biden
21%		 Bernie Sanders
19%		 Undecided 11%
Quinnipiac University[37]

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample size: 353

 August 7–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton
47%		 Bernie Sanders
17%		 Joe Biden
14%		 Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 3%, Wouldn't vote 6%, Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac University[38]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 388

 June 4–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
60%		 Joe Biden
13%		 Bernie Sanders
10%		 Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Jim Webb 0%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample size: 360

 June 4–7, 2015 Hillary Clinton
61%		 Bernie Sanders
13%		 Michael Bloomberg
7%		 Lincoln Chafee 2%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Not sure 13%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 5.4%
Sample size: 324

 March 17–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
54%		 Elizabeth Warren
14%		 Joe Biden
9%		 Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 12%
Joe Biden
34%		 Elizabeth Warren
25%		 Martin O'Malley
5%		 Bernie Sanders 5%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 24%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 315

 January 22 – February 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
51%		 Elizabeth Warren
14%		 Joe Biden
7%		 Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
28%		 Elizabeth Warren
24%		 Bernie Sanders
7%		 Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Other 4%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 28%

Results

Ohio Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 696,681 56.12% 81 14 95
Bernie Sanders 535,395 43.13% 62 1 63
Rocky De La Fuente 9,402 0.76%
Uncommitted — 2 2
Total 1,241,478 100% 143 17 160
Source: The Green Papers
Ohio Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District Delegates available Votes Delegates
Clinton Sanders De La Fuente Total Qualified total Clinton Sanders
1 4 42,600 29,747 272 72,619 72,347 2 2
2 4 39,061 30,597 483 70,141 69,658 2 2
3 12 59,740 43,898 302 103,940 103,638 7 5
4 4 29,317 25,831 677 55,825 55,148 2 2
5 4 32,068 32,279 544 64,891 64,347 2 2
6 4 32,611 27,413 1,545 61,569 60,024 2 2
7 4 33,596 27,823 745 62,164 61,419 2 2
8 4 26,463 21,879 413 48,755 48,342 2 2
9 8 55,401 42,141 680 98,222 97,542 5 3
10 4 41,641 31,089 350 73,080 72,730 2 2
11 17 91,235 43,124 382 134,741 134,359 12 5
12 4 38,046 34,109 352 72,507 72,155 2 2
13 8 56,933 45,981 1,055 103,969 102,914 4 4
14 4 43,317 33,627 537 77,481 76,944 2 2
15 4 33,764 32,516 516 66,796 66,280 2 2
16 4 40,888 33,341 549 74,778 74,229 2 2
Total 93 696,681 535,395 9,402 1,241,478 1,232,076 52 41
PLEO 19 11 8
At Large 31 18 13
Gr. Total 143 81 62
Total vote 56.12% 43.13% 0.76% 100.00% 99.24%
Source: Ohio Secretary of State Presidential Preference Primary Precinct Level Official Results (Democrat)

Results by county

County[39] Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Adams56.8%87741.3%638
Allen56.6%3,67042.1%2,730
Ashland49.1%1,45149.5%1,465
Ashtabula54.9%5,32043.9%4,256
Athens38.2%3,53361.2%5,663
Auglaize51.0%1,03147.1%952
Belmont53.1%3,98243.5%3,263
Belmont58.3%1,56239.8%1,067
Butler53.4%12,87446.0%11,102
Carroll51.4%1,08446.2%976
Champaign51.9%1,22646.6%1,099
Clark58.7%7,10740.5%4,905
Clermont49.4%5,64250.0%5,710
Clinton48.5%90950.3%942
Columbiana52.6%4,10645.8%3,573
Coshocton53.6%1,35844.5%1,128
Crawford51.4%1,34443.6%1,141
Cuyahoga63.2%125,91436.3%72,297
Darke54.2%1,24643.4%999
Defiance50.6%1,50748.2%1,435
Delaware57.9%9,55241.8%6,891
Erie55.3%5,44943.6%4,299
Fairfield55.3%6,40843.8%5,074
Fayette58.3%76040.9%533
Franklin55.3%84,65444.4%67,855
Fulton48.7%1,48050.3%1,528
Gallia47.7%94548.8%966
Geauga54.0%4,17145.5%3,516
Greene49.4%6,67250.0%6,759
Guernsey53.0%1,44045.2%1,228
Hamilton59.5%57,68740.2%38,956
Hancock44.9%2,06254.2%2,490
Hardin52.6%77145.7%669
Harrison53.2%81843.8%674
Henry50.0%97748.7%952
Highland55.2%1,11943.1%873
Hocking52.3%1,20446.0%1,060
Holmes48.8%56148.5%558
Huron50.9%2,03647.7%1,907
Jackson58.3%1,01040.1%694
Jefferson54.7%4,32842.3%3,353
Knox48.5%1,90250.6%1,987
Lake54.3%12,50644.9%10,351
Lawrence55.4%2,65441.6%1,994
Licking53.3%6,78545.9%5,849
Logan49.6%1,01248.9%998
Lorain56.1%21,14442.9%16,154
Lucas56.9%32,13742.7%24,111
Madison56.8%1,22542.8%923
Mahoning59.3%21,00039.7%14,066
Marion56.9%2,58542.0%1,909
Medina53.1%7,91346.3%6,888
Meigs49.9%80047.2%757
Mercer53.5%1,03744.4%860
Miami53.2%3,15545.6%2,706
Monroe48.1%1,19145.9%1,138
Montgomery59.4%33,35240.1%22,538
Morgan56.2%56642.7%430
Morrow52.1%1,16446.3%1,035
Muskingum56.6%3,06642.4%2,299
Noble53.9%52241.7%404
Ottawa55.4%2,56643.4%2,012
Paulding55.8%72341.7%540
Perry56.7%1,46541.4%1,070
Pickaway55.6%2,09743.2%1,631
Pike56.8%1,33640.3%949
Portage49.0%8,66550.2%8,877
Preble52.2%1,17646.4%1,046
Putnam45.3%81152.3%936
Richland55.5%5,22543.3%4,080
Ross57.2%3,58241.4%2,595
Sandusky53.4%2,86645.7%2,456
Scioto53.7%3,49944.6%2,903
Seneca49.6%2,08149.2%2,064
Shelby52.3%1,28445.2%1,110
Stark56.5%21,51542.6%16,235
Summit56.6%38,87442.9%29,451
Trumbull53.9%17,90344.4%14,726
Tuscarawas51.6%4,47946.3%4,019
Union50.8%1,58048.3%1,501
Van Wert51.9%71045.4%621
Vinton49.5%51547.7%496
Warren53.3%6,97046.3%6,054
Washington50.5%2,55747.6%2,411
Wayne51.3%3,44848.0%3,225
Williams45.8%1,00752.6%1,156
Wood45.8%6,10853.7%7,165
Wyandot49.7%66148.6%647
Total56.5%679,26642.7%513,549

Analysis

Clinton received a commanding win in the Ohio primary which mirrored her 2008 performance. Clinton won the white vote 53-47 which comprised 74% of the Ohio electorate. She also won the African American vote, 71–28. And while Sanders won men 51-48 and voters under the age of 45 65–34, Clinton won women 63-36 (including white women 61-38 who made up 41% of the electorate, and won both married and unmarried women) and she won older voters 70–29. She swept all income levels and educational attainment levels in the Buckeye State. She also won unions, an important demographic in the industrial Rust Belt, by a margin of 55–45.

In terms of political ideology, Clinton swept all groups: liberals, moderates, and conservatives. She won Democrats 64–35, but lost Independents 66–33 to Sanders.

Clinton swept most counties in the state, winning urban areas 61–38, suburban areas 63–36, and rural areas by a modest 51–48. Clinton won in the Cleveland area 63–35, in Northern Ohio 57–43, in the Ohio Valley and Western Ohio 52–47, in the Columbus area 52–47, and in Cincinnati/Dayton, 55–45.[40]

References

  1. ↑ Stein, Jeff (March 15, 2016). "Hillary Clinton holds off surging Bernie Sanders to win Ohio". Vox. Retrieved January 23, 2021.
  2. ↑ Gass, Nick. "Hillary Clinton wins Ohio Democratic primary". POLITICO. Retrieved January 23, 2021.
  3. ↑ "Who's Winning the Presidential Delegate Count?". Bloomberg. Bloomberg L.P. March 12, 2016. Archived from the original on March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  4. ↑ Tani, Maxwell (February 28, 2016). "It's now clear that Hillary Clinton's 'firewall' strategy is alive and well". Business Insider. Axel Springer SE. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  5. ↑ Dowling, Brian (March 6, 2016). "Hillary Clinton still strong in South, while Bernie Sanders stays alive". Boston Herald. Herald Media, Inc. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  6. ↑ Bump, Philip (March 8, 2016). "Hillary Clinton's stunningly large win in Mississippi". The Washington Post. Nash Holdings LLC. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  7. ↑ Riddell, Kelly (March 5, 2016). "Bernie Sanders' campaign gets needed boost with Kansas, Nebraska wins". The Washington Times. Operations Holdings (The Washington Times, LLC). Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  8. ↑ Nelson, Colleen McCain; Nicholas, Peter; Meckler, Laura (March 9, 2016). "Bernie Sanders Scores Upset in Michigan Democratic Primary". The Wall Street Journal. News Corp. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  9. ↑ Roberts, Dan; Jacobs, Ben; Gambino, Lauren (March 10, 2016). "Bernie Sanders beats Hillary Clinton in stunning Michigan primary upset". The Guardian. Guardian Media Group. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  10. ↑ Roberts, Dan; Gambino, Lauren (March 10, 2016). "Sanders optimistic for more midwest upsets after shock Michigan win". The Guardian. Guardian Media Group. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  11. ↑ Meckler, Laura; Nicholas, Peter (March 3, 2016). "Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton Spar Over Trade in Midwest". The Wall Street Journal. News Corp. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  12. ↑ Davis, Owen (March 7, 2016). "Free Trade And Flint: What Sanders And Clinton Got Right And Wrong On Nafta". International Business Times. IBT Media. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  13. ↑ "Primaries - Where Can 17-Year-Olds Vote in Presidential Primaries or Caucuses?". FairVote. Archived from the original on March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  14. ↑ Perkins, William T. (March 5, 2016). "17-year-olds shut out of presidential primary". The Columbus Dispatch. New Media Investment Group. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  15. ↑ Naymik, Mark (March 8, 2016). "Ohio 17-year-olds' presidential picks in Tuesday's primary won't count but pressure building to change the rule". Cleveland.com (The Plain Dealer). Advance Publications / Newhouse Newspapers. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  16. ↑ O'Brien, Brendan (March 8, 2016). "Ohio 17-year-olds sue state for right to vote in primary". Reuters. Thomson Reuters. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  17. ↑ Heller, Nathan (August 25, 2015). "Feeling the Bern With the Youth Vote". The New Yorker. Advance Publications. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  18. ↑ Silver, Nate (February 8, 2016). "Why Young Democrats Love Bernie Sanders". FiveThirtyEight. ESPN Inc. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  19. 1 2 Alcindor, Yamiche (March 8, 2016). "Bernie Sanders Sues Over Ohio Rule Barring 17-Year-Olds From Primary". The New York Times. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  20. ↑ Morice, Jane (March 8, 2016). "Bernie Sanders' campaign files young voters lawsuit against Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted". Cleveland.com (The Plain Dealer). Advance Publications / Newhouse Newspapers. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  21. ↑ Gaudiano, Nicole (March 11, 2016). "Ohio official calls Bernie Sanders' lawsuit a 'political act'". USA Today. Gannett Company. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  22. ↑ Larson, Erik (March 12, 2016). "Sanders Preparing for Battle Over Ohio's 17-Year-Old Voters". Bloomberg. Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  23. ↑ Atkin, Emily (March 11, 2016). "Meet The Young Donald Trump Supporters Who Drove 100 Miles To Protest With Bernie Sanders Supporters". ThinkProgress. Center for American Progress. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  24. ↑ Atkinson, Khorri (March 12, 2016). "Sanders campaign praises Ohio ruling that allows 17-year-olds to vote". MSNBC. NBCUniversal. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  25. ↑ Palmer, Kim (March 11, 2016). "17-Year-Olds Should Be Allowed To Vote In Ohio Primary, Judge Rules". The Huffington Post. AOL. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  26. ↑ LoBianco, Tom (March 12, 2016). "In victory for Sanders, Ohio judge says 17-year-olds can vote in primary". CNN. Turner Broadcasting System (Time Warner). Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  27. ↑ "CNN, TV One to host presidential town hall". CNN. March 13, 2016. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
  28. ↑ "ARG Ohio Poll March 12-13, 2016".
  29. ↑ "OHIO: KASICH, TRUMP IN GOP SQUEAKER; CLINTON LEADS IN DEM RACE" (PDF).
  30. ↑ "March 14, 2016 - Trump Tops Rubio In Florida, Ties Kasich In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton Leads Sanders In Two Critical Primaries".
  31. ↑ "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
  32. ↑ "Poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida".
  33. ↑ "Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio".
  34. ↑ "WOMEN DRIVE CLINTON TO 2-1 LEAD AMONG FLORIDA DEMS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; SHE HAS 9-POINT LEAD IN OHIO" (PDF).
  35. ↑ "CNN/ORC Poll: Trump, Clinton leading in Florida, Ohio".
  36. ↑ "2016 Presidential Swing State Polls Poll – October 7, 2015 – Biden, Carson Are Hot In Flori | Quinnipiac University Connecticut". Quinnipiac.edu. October 7, 2015. Retrieved January 23, 2016.
  37. ↑ "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). Quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved August 20, 2015.
  38. ↑ "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
  39. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  40. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved September 25, 2016.
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