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 Election results by county.
Donald Trump
Marco Rubio | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary took place on February 20 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Republican Party's third nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
The Democratic Party held its Nevada caucuses on the same day, while their South Carolina primary would only take place a week later on February 27.
The states delegates are allocated in this way: 29 delegates are awarded to the winner of the primary; 3 delegates are awarded to the winner of each of the seven congressional districts.[1]
Following a poor result in the primary, Jeb Bush announced the suspension of his campaign.[2]
Forums and debates
January 9, 2016 – Columbia, South Carolina The Kemp Forum was held in the Columbia Metropolitan Convention Center by the Jack Kemp Foundation. Bush, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, and Rubio attended. The forum was moderated by Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senator Tim Scott.[3][4]
January 14, 2016 – North Charleston, South Carolina
| Candidate | Airtime[5] | Polls |
|---|---|---|
| Trump | 17:12 | 34.5% |
| Cruz | 17:52 | 19.3% |
| Rubio | 14:19 | 11.8% |
| Carson | 8:26 | 9.0% |
| Christie | 14:25 | 3.5% |
| Bush | 12:36 | 4.8% |
| Kasich | 12:26 | 2.3% |
| Candidate | Airtime | Polls |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorina | 12:06 | 2.8% |
| Paul | N/A | 2.3% |
| Huckabee | 13:00 | 1.8% |
| Santorum | 12:18 | 0.0% |
On December 8, 2015, it was announced that Fox Business Network would host an additional debate two days after the State of the Union address.[6] The debate was held in the North Charleston Coliseum in North Charleston, South Carolina. The anchor and managing editor of Business News, Neil Cavuto, and anchor and global markets editor, Maria Bartiromo, reprised their roles as moderators for the prime-time debate, which began at 9 p.m. EST. The earlier debate, which started at 6 p.m. EST, was again moderated by anchors Trish Regan and Sandra Smith.[7][8]
On December 22, 2015, Fox Business Network announced that in order to qualify for the prime-time debate, candidates had to either: place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by FOX News; place in the top five in Iowa, based on an average of the five most recent Iowa state polls recognized by FOX News; or place in the top five in New Hampshire, based on an average of the five most recent New Hampshire state polls recognized by FOX News. In order to qualify for the first debate, candidates must have registered at least one percent in one of the five most recent national polls.[9]
On January 11, 2016, seven candidates were revealed to have been invited to the prime-time debate: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump. The participants were introduced in order of their poll rankings at the debate.
Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum participated in the undercard debate. Rand Paul was also invited to the undercard debate, but said, "I won't participate in anything that's not first tier because we have a first tier campaign."[10][11] The candidates were introduced in order of their poll rankings. The first question was to assess the economy. The next questions asked Fiorina about the role of the US in the world, Santorum about the Iran deal, and Huckabee about the solution to Afghanistan's problems.
February 13, 2016 – Greenville, South Carolina The ninth debate, and second debate in the month of February, was held in another early primary state of South Carolina, and aired on CBS News. The debate was moderated by John Dickerson in the Peace Center, began at 9 p.m. ET and lasted for 90 minutes.[12]
Endorsements
- Statewide officials
- Molly Spearman, State Superintendent of Education
- Hugh E. Weathers, Commissioner of Agriculture
- Major General Bob Livingston, Adjuntant General
- U.S. Senators
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator
- State Senators
- Katrina Shealy, state senator
- Paul Thurmond, state senator and son of former U.S. Senator Strom Thurmond
- Ross Turner, state senator
- State Senators
- Lee Bright, state senator
- State Senators
- Paul Campbell, Jr., state senator
- Ray Cleary, state senator
- Ronnie Cromer, state senator
- Greg Gregory, state senator
- Newspapers
- The State (Columbia)[13]
- The Post and Courier (Charleston)[14]
- Statewide officials
- U.S. Senators
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator
- U.S. Representatives
- Joe Wilson, U.S. Representative
- Trey Gowdy, U.S. Representative
- State Senators
- Larry Grooms, state senator
- Statewide officials
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll
aggregation |
Dates
administered |
Dates
updated |
Marco Rubio Republican |
Donald Trump Republican |
Ted Cruz Republican |
Jeb Bush Republican |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | until February 20, 2016 | February 20, 2016 | 18.8% | 31.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% | Trump +13.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until February 20, 2016 | February 20, 2016 | 19.8% | 30.5% | 19.5% | 11.4% | Trump +10.7 |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results | February 20, 2016 | Donald Trump32.51% | Marco Rubio22.48% | Ted Cruz22.33% | Jeb Bush 7.84%, John Kasich 7.61%, Ben Carson 7.23% |
| Opinion Savvy/
Augusta Chronicle[16] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 780 |
February 18–19, 2016 | Donald Trump 26.9% |
Marco Rubio 24.1% |
Ted Cruz
18.8% |
Jeb Bush 10.6%, Ben Carson 8.2%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 3.9% |
| South Carolina
House GOP[17] Margin of error: ± 2.0% Sample size: 3500 |
February 18, 2016 | Donald Trump 33.51% |
Ted Cruz
18.96% |
Marco Rubio
18.07% |
Jeb Bush 11.56%, John Kasich 8.49%, Ben Carson 5.22%, Undecided 4.19% |
| National Research[18]
Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 500 |
February 17–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% |
Ted Cruz
19% |
Marco Rubio
18% |
Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Refused 2%, Undecided 7% |
| ARG[19]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 401 |
February 17–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% |
Marco Rubio
22% |
John Kasich
14% |
Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 4%, Other 1%, Undecided 3% |
| Emerson College[20]
Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 418 |
February 16–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% |
Ted Cruz
19% |
Marco Rubio
18% |
John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6% |
| Clemson University[21]
Margin of error: ± 3.0% Sample size: 650 |
February 14–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 28% |
Ted Cruz
19% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 9%, Ben Carson 6%, Undecided 13% |
| ARG[22]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400 |
February 16–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% |
Marco Rubio
20% |
John Kasich
15% |
Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 1%, Undecided 7% |
| Harper Polling[23]
Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 599 |
February 16–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 29% |
Ted Cruz
17% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Jeb Bush 14%, John Kasich 13%, Ben Carson 8%, Undecided 5% |
| NBC News/Wall Street
Journal/Marist College[24] Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 722 |
February 15–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 28% |
Ted Cruz
23% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Jeb Bush 13%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 9%, Undecided 5% |
| Fox News[25]
Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 759 |
February 15–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% |
Ted Cruz
19% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 6%, Other 1%, Undecided 8% |
| Emerson College[26]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 315 |
February 15–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% |
Ted Cruz
20% |
Marco Rubio
19% |
John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 4% |
| ARG[27]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400 |
February 14–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% |
Marco Rubio
16% |
Ted Cruz
14% |
John Kasich 14%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 2%, Undecided 8% |
| Monmouth University[28]
Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 |
February 14–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% |
Ted Cruz
19% |
Marco Rubio
17% |
John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Undecided 5% |
| Bloomberg/Selzer[29]
Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 502 |
February 13–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% |
Ted Cruz
17% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Jeb Bush 13%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 7%, Undecided 3% |
| Public Policy Polling[30]
Margin of error: ± 3.3% Sample size: 897 |
February 14–15, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% |
Ted Cruz
18% |
Marco Rubio
18% |
John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 7%, Undecided 6% |
| South Carolina
House GOP[31] Margin of error: ± 2.4% Sample size: 1700 |
February 15, 2016 | Donald Trump 33.57% |
Ted Cruz
15.54% |
Marco Rubio
14.83% |
Jeb Bush 14.54%, John Kasich 7.98%, Ben Carson 6.55%, Undecided 7.03% |
| CNN/ORC[32]
Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 404 |
February 10–15, 2016 | Donald Trump 38% |
Ted Cruz
22% |
Marco Rubio
14% |
Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6%, John Kasich 4%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Someone Else 1%, Undecided 1%, No Opinion 3% |
| ARG[33]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400 |
February 12–13, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% |
John Kasich
15% |
Marco Rubio
14% |
Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 2%, Other 2%, Undecided 10% |
| South Carolina
House GOP[34] Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 1200 |
February 11–12, 2016 | Donald Trump 34.5% |
Ted Cruz
15.5% |
Jeb Bush
13% |
Marco Rubio 12.5%, John Kasich 8.5%, Ben Carson 5%, Undecided 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov[35]
Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 744 |
February 10–12, 2016 | Donald Trump 42% |
Ted Cruz
20% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ben Carson 6%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 1% |
| Opinion Savvy/
Augusta Chronicle[36] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 779 |
February 10–11, 2016 | Donald Trump 36.3% |
Ted Cruz
19.6% |
Marco Rubio
14.6% |
Jeb Bush 10.9%, John Kasich 8.7%, Ben Carson 4.7%, Undecided 5.2% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[37]
Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 718 |
January 17–23, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% |
Ted Cruz
20% |
Marco Rubio
14% |
Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Rand Paul 1%, John Kasich 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 0%, Undecided 6% |
| CBS/YouGov[38]
Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 804 |
January 18–21, 2016 | Donald Trump 40% |
Ted Cruz
21% |
Marco Rubio
13% |
Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0% |
| Morris News/Opinion Savvy[39]
Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 683 |
January 15, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% |
Ted Cruz
18% |
Jeb Bush
13% |
Marco Rubio 11%, Ben Carson 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 3% |
| Associated Industries of Florida
Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 600 |
December 16–17, 2015 | Donald Trump 27% |
Ted Cruz 27% |
Marco Rubio
12% |
Ben Carson 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, Others 5%, Undecided 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov
Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 1469 |
December 14–17, 2015 | Donald Trump 38% |
Ted Cruz
23% |
Marco Rubio
12% |
Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 4%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 1% |
| Opinion Savvy/Augusta Chronicle
Margin of error: ± 4.2% Sample size: 536 |
December 16, 2015 | Donald Trump 28.3% |
Ted Cruz
21.1% |
Marco Rubio
11.6% |
Jeb Bush 9.6%, Ben Carson 9.5%, Chris Christie 5.5%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Rand Paul 2.6%, Mike Huckabee 2.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.9%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, George Pataki 0.2%, Undecided 1.3% |
| Winthrop University
Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 828 |
November 30 – December 7, 2015 | Donald Trump 24% |
Ted Cruz
16% |
Ben Carson
14% |
Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 9%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0% |
| Fox News
Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 437 |
December 5–8, 2015 | Donald Trump 35% |
Ben Carson
15% |
Marco Rubio/Ted Cruz
14% |
Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 2%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, None of the Above 1%, Don't Know 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov
Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: ? |
November 15–19, 2015 | Donald Trump 35% |
Ben Carson
19% |
Marco Rubio
16% |
Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 5%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 787 |
November 7–8, 2015 | Donald Trump 25% |
Ben Carson
21% |
Ted Cruz
15% |
Marco Rubio 13%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, John Kasich 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 3% |
| CBS News/YouGov
Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 843 |
October 15–23, 2015 | Donald Trump 40% |
Ben Carson
23% |
Ted Cruz
8% |
Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, No Preference 5% |
| Clemson-Palmetto Archived 2015-10-29 at the Wayback Machine
Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 600 |
October 13–23, 2015 | Donald Trump 23% |
Ben Carson 19% |
Ted Cruz
8% |
Carly Fiorina 6%, Jeb Bush 7%, Marco Rubio 5%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Rand Paul 1%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, undecided/DK 15% |
| CNN/ORC
Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 521 |
October 3–10, 2015 | Donald Trump 36% |
Ben Carson
18% |
Marco Rubio
9% |
Carly Fiorina 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Lindsey Graham 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore *%, George Pataki *% Bobby Jindal *%, None 1%, No opinion 4% |
| Gravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 762 |
October 1, 2015 | Donald Trump 29.1% |
Ben Carson
16.4% |
Carly Fiorina
11.1% |
Ted Cruz 8.1%, Marco Rubio 8%, Jeb Bush 5.9%, John Kasich 3.5%, Mike Huckabee 3.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.5%, Chris Christie 1.4%, Rand Paul 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, George Pataki 0.3% Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Unsure 9.9% |
| CBS News/YouGov
Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 1002 |
September 3–10, 2015 | Donald Trump 36% |
Ben Carson
21% |
Ted Cruz
6% |
Lindsey Graham 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Perry 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 5% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 764 |
September 3–6, 2015 | Donald Trump 37% |
Ben Carson
21% |
Ted Cruz
6% |
Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, John Kasich 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0% |
| Monmouth University Archived 2015-08-29 at the Wayback Machine
Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 453 |
August 20–23, 2015 | Donald Trump 30% |
Ben Carson
15% |
Jeb Bush
9% |
Carly Fiorina 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Lindsey Graham 4%, Scott Walker 4%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 0%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 11% |
| Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage
Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 509 |
August 3, 2015 | Donald Trump 31.3% |
Jeb Bush
13.9% |
Ben Carson
9.9% |
Mike Huckabee 8.5%, Lindsey Graham 6.5%, Scott Walker 5.8%, Ted Cruz 4.3%, Chris Christie 4.1%, John Kasich 3.1%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 1.8%, Rand Paul 1.7%, Bobby Jindal 0.7%, Rick Perry 0.6%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, George Pataki 0%, Someone else 3.1%, Undecided 2.5% |
| Gravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 609 |
July 29–30, 2015 | Donald Trump 34% |
Ben Carson
10.9% |
Jeb Bush
10.5% |
Scott Walker 10.3%, Marco Rubio 6%, Mike Huckabee 5.5%, Lindsey Graham 4.9%, Ted Cruz 3.4%, John Kasich 3.3%, Chris Christie 2.5%, Rick Perry 2.5%, Carly Fiorina 2.4%, Rick Santorum 1.3%, Rand Paul 1%, Bobby Jindal 0.9%, George Pataki 0.7% |
| Morning Consult
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 389 |
May 31 – June 8, 2015 | Lindsey Graham 14% |
Ben Carson 12% |
Jeb Bush 11% |
Scott Walker 10%, Marco Rubio 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Donald Trump 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Don't know/No Opinion/Refused 16%, Someone else 2% |
| Winthrop University Archived 2012-03-21 at the Wayback Machine
Margin of error: ± 3.2% Sample size: 956 |
April 4–12, 2015 | Scott Walker 13.6% |
Jeb Bush 12.7% |
Ted Cruz
8.1% |
Lindsey Graham 7.6%, Rand Paul 6.2%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4.9%, Mike Huckabee 4.9%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 1.9%, Donald Trump 1.9%, Bobby Jindal 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.3%, John Bolton 0.2%, Other 1.4%, Undecided 25.1% |
| Gravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 1,371 |
March 26–27, 2015 | Scott Walker 17% |
Jeb Bush 16% |
Ted Cruz
13% |
Lindsey Graham 9%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Undecided 18% |
| Gravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 792 |
February 24–25, 2015 | Jeb Bush 19% |
Scott Walker 17% |
Lindsey Graham
12% |
Mike Huckabee 10%, Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 16% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 525 |
February 12–15, 2015 | Jeb Bush 19% |
Scott Walker 18% |
Ben Carson
13% |
Lindsey Graham 13%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Chris Christie 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ted Cruz 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Other/Undecided 6% |
| NBC News/Marist
Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 450 |
February 3–10, 2015 | Lindsey Graham 17% |
Jeb Bush 15% |
Scott Walker
12% |
Ben Carson 10%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Perry 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Ted Cruz 1%, Undecided 11% |
| Gravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 831 |
January 21–22, 2015 | Mitt Romney 20% |
Jeb Bush
16% |
Scott Walker
9% |
Ted Cruz 8%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Undecided 12% |
| Jeb Bush 18% |
Mike Huckabee
11% |
Scott Walker
11% |
Ted Cruz 9%, Marco Rubio 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Rick Perry 5%, Rick Santorum 4%, Undecided 17% | ||
| Clemson University Archived 2014-06-06 at the Wayback Machine
Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 400 |
May 22–29, 2014 | Jeb Bush 22% |
Chris Christie
10% |
Ted Cruz
9% |
Rand Paul 9%, Marco Rubio 6%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Undecided/Don't know 48% |
| Gravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 735 |
March 6–7, 2014 | Jeb Bush 22% |
Mike Huckabee 19% |
Chris Christie
12% |
Ted Cruz 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Marco Rubio 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 19% |
| Gravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 601 |
November 30 – December 2, 2013 | Chris Christie 16.6% |
Jeb Bush 16% |
Mike Huckabee 15.8% |
Ted Cruz 11.1%, Rand Paul 9.7%, Marco Rubio 7.2%, Rick Santorum 2.8%, Scott Walker 2.3%, Undecided 18.5% |
| Harper Polling
Margin of error: ± 5.03% Sample size: 379 |
October 27–28, 2013 | Chris Christie 19% |
Ted Cruz 17% |
Rand Paul
13% |
Marco Rubio 12%, Paul Ryan 12%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Not sure 21% |
Results
Primary date: February 20, 2016
District conventions: April 2016
State convention: May 7, 2016
National delegates: 50
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 240,882 | 32.51% | 50 | 0 | 50 |
| Marco Rubio | 166,565 | 22.48% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ted Cruz | 165,417 | 22.33% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush | 58,056 | 7.84% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich | 56,410 | 7.61% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson | 53,551 | 7.23% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| George Pataki (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 740,881 | 100.00% | 50 | 0 | 50 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Exit Polls
| 2016 South Carolina Republican Primary by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[40] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Cruz | Trump | Rubio | Kasich | Bush | % of
total vote |
| Total vote | 22.3 | 33.5 | 22.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 93% |
| Gender | ||||||
| Men | 22 | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 51% |
| Women | 22 | 29 | 23 | 9 | 9 | 49% |
| Race | ||||||
| White | 22 | 33 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 96% |
| Education and Race | ||||||
| White College Graduate | 19 | 25 | 27 | 11 | 9 | 52% |
| White Non-college | 24 | 42 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 45% |
| Age | ||||||
| 17–44 years old | 26 | 26 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 27% |
| 45+ years old | 21 | 35 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 73% |
| Income | ||||||
| $30,000 - $49,999 | 27 | 33 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 17% |
| $50,000 - $99,999 | 26 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 37% |
| $100,000 - $199,999 | 17 | 28 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 26% |
| Issue regarded as most important | ||||||
| Immigration | 25 | 51 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 10% |
| Economy | 15 | 36 | 24 | 13 | 7 | 29% |
| Terrorism | 25 | 31 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 32% |
| Government spending | 25 | 25 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 26% |
| Area type | ||||||
| Urban | 18 | 23 | 31 | 12 | 10 | 23% |
| Suburban | 26 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 48% |
| Rural | 20 | 34 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 29% |
| Religion | ||||||
| Evangelical | 26 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 67% |
| Non-Evangelical | 17 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 9 | 33% |
| Veteran household | ||||||
| Yes | 21 | 35 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 17% |
| No | 24 | 31 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 83% |
Analysis
Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary by ten points. He carried the crucial Evangelical vote with 33% to Cruz at 27% and Rubio at 22%.[41][42] Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values.[43]
Marco Rubio, who enjoyed the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley,[44] came in second in the primary. Rubio won the two urban counties of Richland and Charleston, both of which have a higher percentage of college-educated voters.
References
- ↑ Carrejo, Cate. "Is The South Carolina Primary Winner Take All? There's A Lot At Stake In The Palmetto State". Retrieved February 22, 2017.
- ↑ "Jeb Bush drops out of White House race". POLITICO. Retrieved June 21, 2016.
- ↑ "GOP forum will focus on issues, not 'drama'". Post and Courier. Retrieved January 14, 2016.
- ↑ "In Kemp Forum on Poverty, a Broader GOP Outreach to Voters". WSJ Blogs - Washington Wire. January 12, 2016. Retrieved January 14, 2016.
- ↑ Sprunt, Barbara. "On The Clock: Who's Talking The Most In Tonight's Debate?". NPR.org. Retrieved January 14, 2016.
- ↑ "Fox Business Network To Air Additional GOP Debate Days After SOTU". Talking Points Memo. December 8, 2015. Retrieved December 8, 2015.
- ↑ "FOX Business Network Announces Moderators for GOP Primary Debates on Jan. 14". Fox Business. January 5, 2015. Archived from the original on January 6, 2016. Retrieved January 5, 2015.
- ↑ "TV Listings & Channel Guide | AT&T U-verse". uverse.com. Retrieved January 11, 2016.
- ↑ "FOX Business Network Announces Entry Criteria for GOP Primary Debates on Jan. 14". Fox Business. December 22, 2015. Archived from the original on December 23, 2015. Retrieved December 22, 2015.
- ↑ Jackson, David (January 11, 2016). "Fox Business invites 7 Republicans to debate; Paul and Fiorina relegated". USA Today. Retrieved January 11, 2016.
- ↑ Rafferty, Andrew (January 11, 2016). "Rand Paul Says He'll Boycott Debate After Missing Main Stage". NBC News. Retrieved January 11, 2016.
- ↑ "CBS News announces details for 2016 debates". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved December 16, 2015.
- ↑ "The State's Endorsement: Kasich is the best candidate to break through DC gridlock". The State. Columbia, S.C. February 17, 2016. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
- ↑ "Post and Courier editorial board endorses John Kasich". The Post and Courier. Charleston, S.C. February 18, 2016. Archived from the original on February 22, 2016. Retrieved February 18, 2016.
- ↑ "2016 South Carolina - Republican Endorsements". www.p2016.org. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
- ↑ "South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Poll" (PDF). Opinion Savvy. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
- ↑ "South Carolina House Republican Caucus". South Carolina House GOP. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
- ↑ "Results from our South Carolina GOP Primary Poll!". National Research Inc. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
- ↑ "South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary". ARG. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
- ↑ "EMERSON POLL: TRUMP EXTENDS HIS LEAD IN SOUTH CAROLINA; RUBIO PASSES CRUZ IN FIGHT FOR SECOND" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
- ↑ "2016 Clemson University Palmetto Poll: The Republican Primary". Clemson University Palmetto Poll. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
- ↑ "South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary". ARG. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
- ↑ "South Carolina Republican Primary Presidential Poll". Harper Polling. Archived from the original on February 21, 2016. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
- ↑ "Donald Trump's Lead Slashed in South Carolina: Poll". NBC/Marist College. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
- ↑ "Fox News Poll: South Carolina Republican primary". Fox News. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
- ↑ "Trump poised to win South Carolina. Cruz and Rubio battle for second place. Evangelicals and Independents favor Trump" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved February 18, 2016.
- ↑ "South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary". ARG. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
- ↑ "SOUTH CAROLINA: TRUMP FAR AHEAD" (PDF). Monmouth University. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 25, 2016. Retrieved February 18, 2016.
- ↑ "Bloomberg Politics South Carolina Poll". Selzer and Company. Retrieved February 18, 2016.
- ↑ "FIRST ON BUZZ:After debate, Trump still tops SC GOP presidential race". PPP. Retrieved February 15, 2016.
- ↑ "South Carolina House Republican Caucus". South Carolina House GOP. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
- ↑ "CNN/ORC Poll". ORC International. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
- ↑ "South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary". ARG. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ↑ "South Carolina House Republican Caucus". South Carolina House GOP. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ↑ "CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerSouth Carolina". YouGov. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ↑ "South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Poll" (PDF). Opinion Savvy. Retrieved February 13, 2016.
- ↑ "Trump Leads in IA, NH, and SC… Clinton and Sanders Competitive in IA, Sanders up in NH, Clinton Leads in SC". Marist Poll. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
- ↑ "CBS News Battleground 2016 Tracker South Carolina" (PDF). YouGov. Retrieved January 25, 2016.
- ↑ "Poll: Trump still leading in SC, Bush rising". Morris News/Opinion Savvy. Retrieved January 17, 2016.
- ↑ "New Hampshire Exit Polls". The New York Times. February 9, 2016. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
- ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
- ↑ Lipka, Michael. "A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
- ↑ Maxwell, Angie (December 30, 2020). "Why Trump Became a 'Confederate' President". The Forum. 18 (4): 493–529. doi:10.1515/for-2020-2107. ISSN 1540-8884.
- ↑ POLITICO Staff. "Marco Rubio's major endorsements". POLITICO. Retrieved June 18, 2022.