2016 Missouri Republican presidential primary
March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)
 
Candidate Donald Trump Ted Cruz
Home state New York Texas
Delegate count 37 15
Popular vote 383,631 381,666
Percentage 40.84% 40.63%
 
Candidate John Kasich Marco Rubio
Home state Ohio Florida
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 94,857 57,244
Percentage 10.10% 6.09%
Missouri results by county
  Donald Trump
  Ted Cruz

The 2016 Missouri Republican presidential primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Missouri, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 United States presidential election. The Missouri primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio, along with the Democratic contest in Missouri. The hotly contested primary was won by businessman Donald Trump by a margin of 0.21% over Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

Background

In the 2012 primaries, the state of Missouri held two separate contests, a "beauty contest" primary on February 7 and caucuses beginning on March 15. Missouri Governor Jay Nixon signed SB892 in 2014 to move the state's presidential primary contest to March.[1] In addition, the caucus was removed so the primary counted for delegates. According to Missouri Republican Party chair John Hancock, the move was to encourage candidates to campaign in all parts of the state and to avoid the chaotic convention fights in the 2012 campaign.[2]

The state of the campaign

Previous contests

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and three other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.[3][4]

Run-up to the election

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results March 15, 2016 Donald Trump
40.84%		 Ted Cruz
40.63%		 John Kasich
10.10%		 Marco Rubio 6.09%, Ben Carson 0.88%, Jeb Bush 0.36%, Mike Huckabee 0.23%, Rand Paul 0.19%, Chris Christie 0.18%, Rick Santorum 0.08%, Carly Fiorina 0.07%
Fort Hayes State University[5]

Margin of error: ± 7%
Sample size: 208

 March 3–10, 2016 Donald Trump
36%		 Ted Cruz
29%		 Marco Rubio
9%		 John Kasich 8%, Other 1%, Undecided 17%
Remington Research Group

Margin of error: ± 2.6%
Sample size: 1,528

 December 18–19, 2015 Donald Trump
33%		 Ted Cruz
23%		 Marco Rubio
12%		 Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rand Paul 1%, John Kasich 1%, Undecided 14%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: 4.7%
Sample size: 440

 August 7–8, 2015 Donald Trump
23%		 Ben Carson
11%		 Jeb Bush
11%		 Mike Huckabee 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Scott Walker 8%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, John Kasich 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Someone else/Undecided 2%

While there was limited polling in Missouri prior to the primary contest, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump were projected to be the main contenders, with Trump considered to be the favorite. Missouri was considered an important state due to its "winner-take-most" nature, which could allow Trump to accrue a large net gain of delegates with a small change in the popular vote.[6]

Results

Missouri Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 383,631 40.84% 37 0 37
Ted Cruz 381,666 40.63% 15 0 15
John Kasich 94,857 10.10% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio 57,244 6.09% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 8,233 0.88% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,361 0.36% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 3,225 0.34% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 2,148 0.23% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 1,777 0.19% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,681 0.18% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 732 0.08% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 615 0.07% 0 0 0
Jim Lynch (withdrawn) 100 0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 939,270 100.00% 52 0 52
Source: The Green Papers

Following the March 15 contests, Marco Rubio suspended his campaign, largely due to a poor performance in Florida.[7]

Possible recount

Missouri elections law allows the second-place candidate to request a recount if they are defeated in the election by less than one half of a percent.[8] Speculation arose that Cruz would ask for a recount, as he lost the primary by less than 2,000 votes, or 0.21 percent.[9] However, Cruz decided not to request a recount of the election, thus conceding the primary to Trump.[10] The recount was considered important because 12 of the 52 delegates to the Republican National Convention were awarded winner-take-all to the winner of the state.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "SB 892 Changes the presidential primary election date from February to March". Retrieved August 1, 2016.
  2. ↑ "Missouri Republicans announce delegate allocation process for 2016". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved August 1, 2016.
  3. ↑ "Michigan Republican Presidential Primary". American Research Group. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  4. ↑ "Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan". Washington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  5. ↑ "Missouri Poll Results". Fort Hayes State University. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
  6. ↑ Wasserman, David. "Don't Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
  7. ↑ "Rubio suspends presidential campaign". POLITICO. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  8. ↑ "Section 115.601.1". Missouri Revised Statutes. Missouri Legislature. Archived from the original on August 6, 2016. Retrieved August 3, 2016.
  9. ↑ "Recount Could Be Possible for Missouri Republican Primary After Results Are Certified". KOAMTV.
  10. ↑ Lieb, David (April 19, 2016). "Cruz Won't Seek Recount of Missouri Primary Loss to Trump". Bloomberg. Retrieved August 3, 2016.
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