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| Elections in Vermont |
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Vermont was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, the most senior member in the Senate, the longest-serving U.S. Senator from Vermont, and the first Democrat to be elected to a Senate seat in Vermont, won re-election to a record eighth term in office.[1] This is the most recent Senate election in the state where the Republican nominee carried any counties.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Cris Ericson, perennial candidate, later ran as Marijuana Party nominee (also ran for governor)[2]
- Patrick Leahy, incumbent U.S. Senator
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patrick Leahy (incumbent) | 62,412 | 89.15% | |
| Democratic | Cris Ericson | 7,595 | 10.85% | |
| Total votes | 70,007 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Scott Milne, businessman, candidate for the State House in 2006 and nominee for governor in 2014[4][5]
Liberty Union primary
This election was the last in which Diamondstone ran prior to his death in 2017. Diamondstone had run for Vermont statewide office in every biennial election since 1970.
Candidates
Declared
- Peter Diamondstone, LU party co-founder, lawyer, and perennial candidate[6]
Other candidacies
Declared
General election
Candidates
- Patrick Leahy (D)
- Scott Milne (R)
- Jerry Trudell (I)
- Peter Diamondstone (LU)
- Cris Ericson (MJ)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[8] | Safe D | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[10] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[11] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[12] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
Debates
| Dates | Location | Leahy | Milne | Ericson | Trudell | Diamondstone | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 18, 2016 | Burlington, Vermont | Participant | Participant | Participant | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Patrick Leahy (D) |
Scott Milne (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 75% | 24% | — | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 447 | ± 4.6% | 75% | 24% | — | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 449 | ± 4.6% | 69% | 28% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 424 | ± 4.6% | 65% | 32% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 428 | ± 4.6% | 64% | 34% | — | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 436 | ± 4.6% | 64% | 33% | — | 3% |
| Braun Research/WCAX Archived October 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 19–22, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 64% | 29% | 3% | 5% |
| Castleton University | September 29 – October 14, 2016 | 579 | ± 3.9% | 59% | 22% | 7% | 10% |
| Emerson College | September 2–5, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 57% | 34% | 4% | 5% |
| Castleton University | July 11–23, 2016 | 637 | ± 3.9% | 62% | 23% | 1% | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patrick Leahy (incumbent) | 192,243 | 61.26% | -3.10% | |
| Republican | Scott Milne | 103,637 | 33.03% | +2.10% | |
| Marijuana | Cris Ericson | 9,156 | 2.92% | +1.76% | |
| Independent | Jerry Trudell | 5,223 | 1.66% | N/A | |
| Liberty Union | Peter Diamondstone | 3,241 | 1.03% | +0.42% | |
| Write-in | 309 | 0.10% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 313,809 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
References
- ↑ Emily Cahn; Alexis Levinson (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
- ↑ O'Gorman, Josh (May 27, 2016). "Voters to see familiar faces and new races". The Rutland Herald. Archived from the original on May 30, 2016. Retrieved June 2, 2016.
- ↑ "Vermont Results". Politico. August 24, 2010. Retrieved August 24, 2010.
- ↑ Heintz, Paul (October 5, 2015). "Scott Milne Considers Challenging Patrick Leahy". Seven Days. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
- ↑ Gram, Dave (May 26, 2016). "Milne hopes to unseat Sen. Leahy". The Burlington Free Press. Retrieved May 27, 2016.
- ↑ "Candidates register to appear on ballots". The Burlington Free Press. Retrieved June 5, 2016.
- ↑ "Jerry Trudell for Senate VT". Archived from the original on October 25, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
- ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ↑ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ↑ "Vermont Election Results". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved January 29, 2017.
- ↑ "Official Results - General Election - November 8, 2016". Vermont Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Archived from the original on May 28, 2019. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
External links
Official campaign websites (Archived)
Debates
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