2022 United States Senate election in Georgia
November 8, 2022 (first round)
December 6, 2022 (runoff)
 
Candidate Raphael Warnock Herschel Walker
Party Democratic Republican
First round 1,946,117
49.44%		 1,908,442
48.49%
Runoff 1,820,633
51.40%		 1,721,244
48.60%
Warnock:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%     >90%
Walker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. senator before election

Raphael Warnock
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Raphael Warnock
Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the state of Georgia. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock won his first full term in office, defeating Republican former football player Herschel Walker. Under Georgia's two-round system, Warnock was re-elected in a runoff election on December 6 after neither candidate received over 50% of the vote on November 8.[1]

Warnock, who won a shortened term to the seat in a 2020–21 special election, was nominated in the May 24 primary for a full term with minimal opposition. Walker, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, won the Republican nomination with 68% of the vote. It was the first U.S. Senate election in Georgia history and among five nationwide since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment[lower-alpha 1] in which both major party nominees were Black.[2][3] This was the fifth runoff in Georgia since they were introduced in 1964.

In the November 8 election, Warnock received 49.4% of the vote and Walker received 48.5%, triggering the December 6 runoff.[4] Warnock defeated Walker by a 2.8% margin in the runoff and became the first African-American from Georgia elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate. Warnock's victory also secured an outright majority for Senate Democrats for the first time since 2015, with a net gain of one seat in the 2022 midterms.[5][6] It was the third-closest Senate election of the 2022 midterms after Nevada and Wisconsin.

This is the first time since 1990 that a Democratic senator from Georgia won re-election and the first time since 1974 that a Democrat won re-election to the Class 3 seat. This was the first time a Democrat won a full term to this seat since 1986.

Democratic primary

Warnock easily won renomination in the Democratic primary over Tamara Johnson-Shealey, a left-wing activist and businesswoman, who ran a low-profile campaign focused around reparations for slavery.[7][8]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Raphael Warnock
State officials
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Tamara
Johnson-Shealey		 Raphael
Warnock		 Undecided
Emerson College April 1–3, 2022 453 (LV) ± 4.6% 6% 85% 10%

Results

Results by county:
  Warnock
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raphael Warnock (incumbent) 702,610 96.04%
Democratic Tamara Johnson-Shealey 28,984 3.96%
Total votes 731,594 100.0%

Republican primary

Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black was the runner-up in the Republican primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Debates

2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Georgia debates
No. Date Organizer Location Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn		 Source
Gary Black Josh Clark Kelvin King Jonathan McColumn Latham Saddler Herschel Walker
1 April 9, 2022 Georgia's 9th congressional district Republican Party Gainesville P P P P P A [51]
2 May 3, 2022 Atlanta Press Club,
Georgia Public Broadcasting		 Atlanta P P P P P A [52]

Endorsements

Gary Black
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Officials
Herschel Walker
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
  • Black America's Political Action Committee[63]
  • National Right to Life[64]
  • American Conservative Union[65]

Polling

Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Gary
Black		 Josh
Clark		 Kelvin
King		 Jonathan
McColumn		 Latham
Saddler		 Herschel
Walker		 Other
[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics May 12–23, 2022 May 24, 2022 9.0% 2.7% 4.0% 1.7% 9.0% 64.7% 12.9% Walker +55.7
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Gary
Black		 Josh
Clark		 Kelvin
King		 Jonathan
McColumn		 Latham
Saddler		 Herschel
Walker		 Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) May 21–23, 2022 1,074 (LV) ± 2.9% 10% 3% 4% 2% 10% 67% – 4%
Landmark Communications (R) May 22, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 9% 3% 5% 2% 12% 60% – 9%
Fox News May 12–16, 2022 1,004 (LV) ± 3.0% 8% 2% 3% 1% 5% 66% 1% 11%
ARW Strategies (R) April 30 – May 1, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 10% 1% 3% 1% 4% 59% – 23%
SurveyUSA April 22–27, 2022 559 (LV) ± 4.8% 6% 3% 2% 2% 3% 62% – 21%
University of Georgia April 10–22, 2022 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 7% 1% 1% 1% 2% 66% – 23%
Landmark Communications (R) April 9–10, 2022 660 (LV) ± 3.8% 9% 3% 4% 0% 5% 64% – 14%
Spry Strategies (R) April 6–10, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% 2% 4% – 2% 64% – 21%
University of Georgia March 20 – April 8, 2022 ~329 (LV) ± 5.4% 8% 0% 2% 0% 2% 64% – 24%
Emerson College April 1–3, 2022 509 (LV) ± 4.3% 13% 4% 5% 3% 2% 57% 2%[lower-alpha 4] 16%
Fox News March 2–6, 2022 914 (LV) ± 3.0% 8% 1% 3% – 2% 66% 1% 16%
InsiderAdvantage (R) February 28 – March 1, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 6% 3% 4% – 3% 63% 2% 20%
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 11–13, 2022 1,072 (LV) ± 3.0% 6% – 2% – 3% 70% – 19%
Quinnipiac University January 19–24, 2022 666 (LV) ± 3.8% 6% 0% 2% – 1% 81% 0%[lower-alpha 5] 9%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 11–14, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 6% – 1% – 1% 74% 2%[lower-alpha 6] 16%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 2–4, 2021 1,078 (LV) ± 3.0% 6% – 2% – 3% 76% – 13%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 2] August 11–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 5% – 2% – 1% 54% 3%[lower-alpha 7] 35%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Collins		 Marjorie
Taylor Greene		 Kelly
Loeffler		 Herschel
Walker		 Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) March 14–15, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 7% 22% 27% 11%
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 8] – 33% – 24% 33% 11%
Primary runoff polling
Doug Collins vs. Kelly Loeffler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Doug
Collins		 Kelly
Loeffler		 Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R) March 14–15, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 36% 10%
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 8] – 52% 32% 16%
Herschel Walker vs. Doug Collins
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Herschel
Walker		 Doug
Collins		 Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 8] – 50% 36% 14%
Herschel Walker vs. Kelly Loeffler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Herschel
Walker		 Kelly
Loeffler		 Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[lower-alpha 8] – 62% 26% 11%

Results

Results by county:
  Walker
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Herschel Walker 803,560 68.18%
Republican Gary Black 157,370 13.35%
Republican Latham Saddler 104,471 8.86%
Republican Josh Clark 46,693 3.96%
Republican Kelvin King 37,930 3.22%
Republican Jonathan McColumn 28,601 2.43%
Total votes 1,178,625 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[68] Tossup March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[69] Tossup April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[70] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2022
Politico[71] Tossup April 1, 2022
RCP[72] Tossup February 24, 2022
Fox News[73] Tossup October 25, 2022
DDHQ[74] Tossup October 25, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[75] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2022
The Economist[76] Tossup November 1, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Georgia debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Libertarian
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Raphael Warnock Herschel Walker Chase Oliver
1 Oct. 14, 2022 Nexstar Media Group Buck Lanford
Tina Tyus-Shaw		 P P N
2 Oct. 16, 2022 Georgia Public Broadcasting Scott Slade [77] P A P

Endorsements

Raphael Warnock (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Herschel Walker (R)
Executive Branch officials
State officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Raphael
Warnock (D)		 Herschel
Walker (R)		 Other
[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics October 29 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 47.4% 48.8% 3.8% Walker +1.4
FiveThirtyEight October 13 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 46.7% 47.7% 5.69% Walker +1.0
270ToWin November 4–7, 2022 November 7, 2022 47.3% 48.5% 5.1% Walker +1.2
Average 47.1% 48.3% 4.6% Walker +1.2
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Raphael
Warnock (D)		 Herschel
Walker (R)		 Chase
Oliver (L)		 Other Undecided
AtlasIntel November 5–7, 2022 791 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 49% – 5%[lower-alpha 9] –
Landmark Communications November 4–7, 2022 1,214 (LV) ± 2.8% 46% 47% 5% – 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 6, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 49% 1% – 4%
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 47% 1% – 5%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 4–6, 2022 1,103 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 50% 2% – 2%
Data for Progress (D) November 2–6, 2022 1,474 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3% – –
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022 579 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 49% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 10] –
East Carolina University November 2–5, 2022 1,077 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 49% 2% – –
Amber Integrated (R) November 1–2, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 48% 3% – 4%
Remington Research Group (R) November 1–2, 2022 1,150 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 49% 2% – 4%
Echleon Insights October 31 – November 2, 2022 500 (LV) ± 5.4% 45% 49% 3% – 3%
45% 52% – – 3%
Marist College October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,168 (RV) ± 3.9% 49% 45% – 1%[lower-alpha 11] 6%
1,009 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 48% – 1%[lower-alpha 11] 3%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] October 29 – November 2, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 49% 2% – 5%
SurveyUSA October 29 – November 2, 2022 1,171 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 43% 3% – 5%
Patinkin Research Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 4] October 30 – November 1, 2022 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 49% 45% 4% – 2%
Emerson College October 28–31, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 12] 2%
50% 48% 2% 1%[lower-alpha 12] –
Fox News October 26–30, 2022 1,002 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 43% – 6%[lower-alpha 13] 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 27, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 48% 2% <1%[lower-alpha 14] 5%
Siena College/NYT October 24–27, 2022 604 (LV) ± 4.8% 49% 46% 1% – 4%
University of Georgia October 16–27, 2022 1,022 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 46% 5% – 5%
co/efficient (R) October 24–25, 2022 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 47% 3% – 6%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] October 22–25, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 3% – –
Rasmussen Reports (R) October 23–24, 2022 1,053 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% – 4%[lower-alpha 15] 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[upper-alpha 5] October 21–23, 2022 1,076 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 49% 5% – –
East Carolina University October 13–18, 2022 905 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 47% – 2%[lower-alpha 16] 3%
Landmark Communications October 15–17, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 46% 3% – 2%
Data for Progress (D) October 13–17, 2022 984 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 3% – 3%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 16, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 43% 4% 1%[lower-alpha 17] 6%
Wick Insights (R) October 8–14, 2022 1,018 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 46% – 3%[lower-alpha 18] 5%
Civiqs October 8–11, 2022 717 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 46% – 3%[lower-alpha 18] 1%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] October 8–11, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 46% 4% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 8–11, 2022 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 4% – 5%
Quinnipiac University October 7–10, 2022 1,157 (LV) ± 2.9% 52% 45% – 1%[lower-alpha 19] 1%
Emerson College October 6–7, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 12] 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R) October 4, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 44% 3% 1%[lower-alpha 17] 5%
SurveyUSA September 30 – October 4, 2022 1,076 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 38% – 5%[lower-alpha 20] 7%
University of Georgia September 25 – October 4, 2022 1,030 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 43% 4% – 6%
Fox News September 22–26, 2022 1,011 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 41% – 6%[lower-alpha 21] 7%
Data for Progress (D) September 16–20, 2022 1,006 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 46% 4% – 3%
YouGov/CBS News September 14–19, 2022 1,178 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 49% – – 0%
University of Georgia September 5–16, 2022 861 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 46% – 3% 7%
Marist College September 12–15, 2022 1,202 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 42% 4% – 7%
992 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 45% 4% – 4%
Kurt Jetta (D)[upper-alpha 6] September 9–12, 2022 949 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 37% – – 13%
542 (LV) 49% 45% – – 7%
Quinnipiac University September 8–12, 2022 1,278 (LV) ± 2.7% 52% 46% – 1% 2%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 751 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% – – 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 6–7, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 47% 4% – 5%
Emerson College August 28–29, 2022 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 46% – 4% 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 24–27, 2022 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% 3% – 3%
Phillips Academy August 3–7, 2022 971 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 45% – – 11%
Research Affiliates (D)[upper-alpha 7] July 26 – August 1, 2022 420 (LV) ± 4.8% 49% 46% – – 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R) July 26–27, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% 3% 1% 3%
Fox News July 22–26, 2022 908 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 42% – 1% 9%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[upper-alpha 8] July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 42% 46% – 3% 9%
SurveyUSA July 21–24, 2022 604 (LV) ± 5.3% 48% 39% – 5% 8%
University of Georgia July 14–22, 2022 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 43% 3% – 8%
Beacon Research (D)[upper-alpha 9] July 5–20, 2022 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 36% – 2% 11%
602 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 43% – 1% 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) July 5–11, 2022 1,197 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 47% – – 3%
Data for Progress (D) July 1–6, 2022 1,131 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% – – 4%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 10] June 24–27, 2022 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 44% – – 8%
Quinnipiac University June 23–27, 2022 1,497 (RV) ± 2.5% 54% 44% – 0% 3%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] June 11–16, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% – – 6%
East Carolina University June 6–9, 2022 868 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 47% – 2% 4%
SurveyUSA April 22–27, 2022 1,278 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 45% – – 5%
Grassroots Targeting (R)[upper-alpha 1] April 3–16, 2022 2,500 (RV) ± 2.0% 41% 51% – – 8%
Emerson College April 1–3, 2022 1,013 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 49% – – 6%
Blueprint Polling (D) March 2–8, 2022 662 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 49% – – 6%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 10] March 2022 – (LV) – 48% 49% – – 3%
Wick Insights (R) February 2–6, 2022 1,290 (LV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% – – 8%
Quinnipiac University January 19–24, 2022 1,702 (RV) ± 2.4% 48% 49% – 0% 3%
University of Georgia January 13–24, 2022 872 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 47% – 1% 8%
NRSC (R)[upper-alpha 11] December 4–8, 2021 831 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 49% – – 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 9, 2021 753 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 39% – 2% 8%
733 (LV) 48% 42% – 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D) August 4–5, 2021 622 (V) ± 3.9% 48% 46% – – 6%
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) March 7–9, 2021 1,093 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% – 3% 4%
Hypothetical polling
Raphael Warnock vs. Gary Black
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Raphael
Warnock (D)		 Gary
Black (R)		 Other Undecided
University of Georgia January 13–24, 2022 872 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 41% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D) August 4–5, 2021 622 (V) ± 3.9% 46% 38% – 16%
Raphael Warnock vs. Kelly Loeffler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Raphael
Warnock (D)		 Kelly
Loeffler (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) August 4–5, 2021 622 (V) ± 3.9% 47% 44% – 9%
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) March 7–9, 2021 1,093 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 41% 8% 5%
Raphael Warnock vs. Doug Collins
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Raphael
Warnock (D)		 Doug
Collins (R)		 Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) March 7–9, 2021 1,093 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 5% 5%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Democrat		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Grassroots Targeting (R)[upper-alpha 1] April 3–16, 2022 2,500 (RV) ± 2.0% 40% 52% 8%

Results

Despite a strong gubernatorial performance by incumbent governor Brian Kemp in his reelection bid, and leading the polls since October, Walker ended up one point behind Warnock and was forced into a runoff. Ticket splitting was evident, as Walker underperformed Brian Kemp by 200,000 votes, while Warnock did 100,000 votes better than Abrams.[141]

2022 United States Senate election in Georgia[142]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Raphael Warnock (incumbent) 1,946,117 49.44% +1.05%
Republican Herschel Walker 1,908,442 48.49% −0.88%
Libertarian Chase Oliver 81,365 2.07% +1.35%
Total votes 3,935,924 100.0%

Runoff

Following the projection of incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto's victory in Nevada, it became clear that, unlike in the previous cycle, the results of the Georgia runoff would not determine control of the United States Senate. With all Democratic incumbents besides Warnock winning re-election and Democrat John Fetterman flipping an open seat in Pennsylvania that had been held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey, Democrats held their majority in the Senate.[lower-alpha 22][143] Nevertheless, national Democrats and Republicans began spending on advertising and volunteer mobilization efforts as soon as it became apparent that a runoff election would be necessary.[144] Historically, runoff elections in Georgia have favored Republicans as turnout decreased disproportionately amongst Democratic voters, but in 2021, with Senate control to be determined, turnout was historically high.[145] Prior to the runoff, elections analysts questioned whether Georgia voters would turn out in such high numbers again and tried to determine which candidate's coalition of supporters would be more likely to turn out.[146]

The early vote window was shorter in 2022 than in 2021 due to Georgia's Election Integrity Act of 2021, which reduced the gap between general and runoff elections from nine to four weeks.[147] State officials also said that there could be no weekend early voting: Georgia state law bars early voting from taking place the Saturday immediately before an election (December 3), and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued that early voting also could not take place the next preceding Saturday (November 26), as it fell two days after Thanksgiving (November 24) and the day after a Georgia state holiday established to commemorate Confederate general Robert E. Lee's birthday (November 25).[lower-alpha 23][150] On Friday, November 18, a Fulton County Superior Court judge ruled that, despite the holidays, county boards of election could legally offer early voting on Saturday, November 26;[151] that decision was upheld by the Georgia Court of Appeals on Monday, November 21,[152] and by the Supreme Court of Georgia on Wednesday, November 23.[153] Ultimately, 27 of Georgia's 159 counties chose to offer early voting on Saturday,[154] including the state's four largest counties, Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb.[155]

While Democrats retained control of the Senate during the 118th Congress regardless of the outcome of the Georgia runoff, Warnock's victory affected the functioning of that majority. During the 117th Congress, Senate Democrats made power-sharing agreements with Republicans, such as evenly dividing committee memberships between the two parties and giving Republicans greater ability to delay judicial appointments; with Warnock's win, Democrats attained an outright 51–49 majority,[1] allowing them to take full control of Senate committees and expedite judicial confirmations.[156] Looking beyond the 118th Congress, many analysts have noted that the outcome of this race will affect Democrats' prospects in the 2024 U.S. Senate elections. Election forecasters have noted that Democrats hold a number of seats up for election in 2024 which will be difficult for the party to defend,[lower-alpha 24] and therefore that holding Georgia's seat bolstered the party's chances to maintain Senate control going forward.[156][157][158]

According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Warnock won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Walker's defeat.[159]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[160] Tossup November 18, 2022
Inside Elections[161] Tilt D December 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[162] Lean D December 5, 2022
DDHQ[163] Lean D December 6, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Raphael
Warnock (D)		 Herschel
Walker (R)		 Undecided
[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics November 11 – December 4, 2022 December 5, 2022 51.0% 47.3% 1.5% Warnock +3.7
FiveThirtyEight November 26 – December 5, 2022 December 5, 2022 51.1% 47.2% 2.1% Warnock +3.9
270ToWin November 22 – December 5, 2022 December 5, 2022 51.0% 47.7% 1.5% Warnock +3.3
Average 51.0% 47.4% 1.7% Warnock +3.6
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Raphael
Warnock (D)		 Herschel
Walker (R)		 Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 3–5, 2022 1,099 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 47% – 2%
Data for Progress (D) December 1–5, 2022 1,229 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% – –
InsiderAdvantage (R) December 4, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 51% 48% – 1%
Landmark Communications December 4, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 47% – 1%
Mitchell Research December 4, 2022 625 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 45% – 5%
Patriot Polling November 30 – December 2, 2022 818 (RV) – 49% 47% – 4%
Emerson College November 28–30, 2022 888 (LV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – –
49% 47% – 4%
SurveyUSA November 26–30, 2022 1,214 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 47% – 3%
50% 46% – 4%
CNN/SSRS November 25–29, 2022 1,886 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 44% 5%[lower-alpha 25] –
1,184 (LV) ± 3.8% 52% 48% 1%[lower-alpha 26] –
UMass Lowell/YouGov November 18–28, 2022 1,300 (LV) ± 3.2% 51% 46% – 2%
Phillips Academy November 26–27, 2022 862 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 48% – 5%
Frederick Polls (D)[upper-alpha 12] November 23–26, 2022 939 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 50% – –
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) November 11–17, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 47% – 2%

Results

Warnock won Washington and Baldwin counties in the runoff, after having lost them in the general election, although he did win them in 2020.

2022 United States Senate runoff election in Georgia[164]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Raphael Warnock (incumbent) 1,820,633 51.40% +0.36%
Republican Herschel Walker 1,721,244 48.60% −0.36%
Total votes 3,541,877 100.0%
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Walker won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[165]

District Warnock Walker Representative
1st 44% 56% Buddy Carter
2nd 56% 44% Sanford Bishop
3rd 36% 64% Drew Ferguson
4th 82% 18% Hank Johnson
5th 87% 13% Nikema Williams
6th 44% 56% Lucy McBath (117th Congress)
Rich McCormick (118th Congress)
7th 66% 34% Carolyn Bourdeaux (117th Congress)
Lucy McBath (118th Congress)
8th 35% 65% Austin Scott
9th 31% 69% Andrew Clyde
10th 39% 61% Jody Hice (117th Congress)
Mike Collins (118th Congress)
11th 43% 57% Barry Loudermilk
12th 44% 56% Rick Allen
13th 84% 16% David Scott
14th 32% 68% Marjorie Taylor Greene

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ After Illinois in 2004 and South Carolina in 2014 and 2016, and concurrently with South Carolina in 2022.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. 1 2 3 Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ↑ Nestor with 2%
  5. ↑ Craig and Nestor with 0%
  6. ↑ Craig and Nestor with 1%
  7. ↑ Carter with 3%
  8. 1 2 3 4 Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
  9. ↑ "Other candidate/Don't know" with 5%
  10. ↑ "All others" with 2%
  11. 1 2 "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  12. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ↑ "Other" with 4%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  14. ↑ "Other" with <1%
  15. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%
  16. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  17. 1 2 "Other" with 1%
  18. 1 2 "Someone else" with 3%
  19. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  20. ↑ "Other candidate" with 5%
  21. ↑ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
  22. ↑ Two independent senators caucus with Senate Democrats and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking vote.
  23. ↑ While Lee's birthday was January 19, the state of Georgia had traditionally observed the holiday on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Since 2016, Georgia no longer references Lee on its official calendar, but the day is still observed as a state holiday and government operations are closed.[148][149]
  24. ↑ Three Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Trump in 2020 (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia), while no Class 1 Republicans represent states won by Biden. In addition, five Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Biden by less than his national popular vote margin (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
  25. ↑ "Do not plan to vote" with 5%
  26. ↑ "Do not plan to vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by 34N22 Leadership, which supports Walker
  2. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Save America PAC
  3. 1 2 3 4 This poll was sponsored by Walker's campaign
  4. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Progress Georgia, an organization affiliated with the Georgia Democratic Party.
  5. ↑ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  6. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Walker
  7. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Charlie Bailey's campaign for lieutenant governor
  8. ↑ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  9. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  10. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America's Future Majority Fund
  11. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
  12. ↑ Poll conducted for COMPETE Everywhere, a digital marketing firm associated with the Democratic Party.

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        150. ↑ King, Maya; Vigdor, Neil (November 14, 2022). "Georgia's Senate Runoff Is Complicated by 2021 Voting Law". The New York Times. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        151. ↑ Niesse, Mark (November 18, 2022). "BREAKING: Judge allows Saturday voting before U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        152. ↑ Niesse, Mark (November 21, 2022). "BREAKING: Saturday voting upheld in Georgia U.S. Senate runoff". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        153. ↑ Niesse, Mark (November 23, 2022). "Georgia Supreme Court upholds Saturday voting in US Senate runoff". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        154. ↑ Sterling, Gabriel [@GabrielSterling] (November 26, 2022). "Counties voting today in Georgia Baker Baldwin Bartow Bibb Burke Chatham Clarke Cobb Crawford DeKalb Douglas Fulton Gilmer Gwinnett Hancock Henry Macon Mitchell Muscogee Newton Randolph Rockdale Screven Terrell Troup Walton Ware https://t.co/zyMJnbNWlh #gapol #PlanYourVote https://t.co/bfA6BvIQiC" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 27, 2022. Retrieved December 1, 2022 – via Twitter.
        155. ↑ Estep, Tyler (November 26, 2022). "Voters turn out for Saturday voting in Georgia Senate runoff". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        156. 1 2 "Georgia's Runoff is the Opening Battle of the 2024 Senate Cycle". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 16, 2022. Retrieved November 17, 2022.
        157. ↑ Druke, Galen; Silver, Nate (November 14, 2022). "Politics Podcast: Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022". FiveThirtyEight (Podcast). Retrieved November 29, 2022.
        158. ↑ "Democrats kept the Senate this year, but 2024 may be harder". Associated Press. November 28, 2022. Retrieved December 7, 2022.
        159. ↑ Brownstein, Ronald (October 10, 2023). "McCarthy's fall and Trump's rise reflect the same bet among Republicans". CNN. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
        160. ↑ "Georgia Deja Vu: 2022 Senate Runoff Overview". The Cook Political Report. November 18, 2022. Retrieved November 18, 2022.
        161. ↑ "Georgia Senate Runoff: Will Warnock Repeat?". Inside Elections. Retrieved December 2, 2022.
        162. ↑ Coleman, J. Miles (December 5, 2022). "Georgia Runoff to Leans Democratic". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
        163. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. December 6, 2022. Retrieved December 8, 2022.
        164. ↑ "December 6, 2022 - General Election Runoff Official & Complete Results". Georgia Secretary of State. December 9, 2022. Retrieved December 9, 2022.
        165. ↑ "GA 22 SEN Runoff CDS".
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