2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election
November 8, 2022
Turnout38.61% Decrease[1] 15.85 pp
 
Nominee Bill Lee Jason Martin
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,129,390 572,818
Percentage 64.9% 32.9%

Lee:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Martin:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Governor before election

Bill Lee
Republican

 Elected Governor

Bill Lee
Republican

The 2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Tennessee. Incumbent Republican Governor Bill Lee was re-elected to a second term with 64.9% of the vote, defeating his Democratic challenger Jason Martin. Lee improved on his performance from 2018.

The primary elections took place on August 4, 2022, with Lee and Martin winning their respective parties' nominations.[2][3]

During the general election, Lee flipped reliably Democratic Haywood County, home to Brownsville. It is one of only two remaining counties in Tennessee, along with Shelby County, with a majority African-American population. Haywood County has not voted Republican on a presidential level since 1972. Martin won only Shelby and Davidson Counties. This was also the first time in state history where Davidson County did not vote for the winner in a gubernatorial re-election since Tennessee began allowing governors to serve for two consecutive terms.

Voter turnout for the 2022 midterm elections in Tennessee was the lowest it has been in nearly a decade, with only 38.6% of Tennessee's registered voters turning out. The last time turnout was this low in Tennessee was in the 2014 midterm elections. This turnout was far below the 2020 presidential election in Tennessee, which saw a turnout of 69.3%.[4][5] Tennessee's neighboring state Alabama saw a significant drop in voter turnout as well, with only 38.5% of Alabamians turning out to vote this midterm cycle.

Bill Lee was sworn in for his second term on January 21, 2023.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

  • Curtis Carney, business owner[8][7]
  • Tyler Hagerman[7]
  • Patricia Morrison[7]

Declined

Endorsements

Bill Lee
U.S. Executive Branch officials

Results

Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Lee (incumbent) 494,362 100.00%
Total votes 494,362 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

J. B. Smiley Jr.
U.S. representatives
Local officials

Results

Results by county:
  Martin
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Smiley
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Atwater
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results[24]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jason Martin 101,552 39.39%
Democratic J.B. Smiley Jr. 100,062 38.81%
Democratic Carnita Atwater 56,227 21.81%
Total votes 257,841 100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

  • Lemichael DaShaun-Wilson[25]
  • Hosie Holomon III[25]
  • Wendell Jackson[25]
  • Jake Johns[25]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Solid R March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[27] Solid R July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Safe R June 29, 2022
Politico[29] Solid R April 1, 2022
RCP[30] Safe R January 10, 2022
Fox News[31] Solid R May 12, 2022
538[32] Solid R August 4, 2022
Elections Daily[33] Safe R November 7, 2022

Endorsements

Bill Lee (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Organizations
Jason Martin (D)
Labor unions

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Lee (R)		 Jason
Martin (D)		 Other Undecided
RABA Research July 21–31, 2022 549 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 28% 6% 14%
Hypothetical polling
Bill Lee vs. generic opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Lee (R)		 Generic
Opponent		 Undecided
Vanderbilt University April 26 – May 14, 2022 1,000 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 39% 12%

Results

2022 Tennessee gubernatorial election[40]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bill Lee (incumbent) 1,129,390 64.91% +5.55
Democratic Jason Martin 572,818 32.92% −5.63
Independent John Gentry 15,395 0.89% N/A
Independent Constance Every 10,277 0.59% N/A
Independent Deborah Rouse 3,772 0.22% N/A
Independent Rick Tyler 2,380 0.14% N/A
Independent Charles Van Morgan 1,862 0.11% N/A
Independent Basil Marceaux 1,568 0.09% N/A
Independent Alfred O'Neil 1,216 0.07% N/A
Independent Michael Scantland 815 0.05% N/A
Write-In Lemichael D. Wilson 386 0.02% N/A
Write-In Charles Carney 2 0.00% N/A
Write-In Stephen C. Maxwell 1 0.00% N/A
Write-In Kameron Parker Scott 0 0.00% N/A
Total votes 1,739,882 100.00%
Turnout 1,756,397 38.61% -15.85%
Registered electors 4,549,183
Republican hold

By county

By county
County[41]Bill Lee
Republican		Jason Martin
Democratic		Other votesTotal
votes
 % #  % #  % #
Anderson65.80%14,00332.11%6,8322.09%44521,280
Bedford79.30%8,40118.27%1,9362.43%25710,594
Benton79.14%3,24718.43%7562.43%1004,103
Bledsoe86.06%2,93312.27%4181.67%573,408
Blount74.41%29,47023.52%9,3162.07%82039,606
Bradley81.97%20,65516.26%4,0961.77%44725,198
Campbell81.96%6,11815.85%1,1972.19%1657,550
Cannon80.74%3,08217.50%6681.76%673,817
Carroll80.23%5,73317.74%1,2682.03%1457,146
Carter80.10%11,60217.78%2,5752.12%30714,484
Cheatham71.27%8,30926.92%3,1381.81%21111,658
Chester83.54%3,75613.83%6222.62%1184,496
Claiborne83.99%5,65214.18%9541.83%1236,729
Clay80.03%1,45116.93%3073.04%551,813
Cocke81.17%6,61815.95%1,3002.88%2358,153
Coffee77.13%10,52920.59%2,8112.28%31113,651
Crockett82.30%2,73416.23%5391.48%493,322
Cumberland82.38%17,86416.16%3,5051.46%31521,684
Davidson34.24%60,90063.38%112,7082.38%4,229177,837
Decatur80.65%2,71317.72%5961.63%553,364
DeKalb80.07%4,11817.71%9112.22%1145,143
Dickson73.73%9,97024.07%3,2552.20%29713,522
Dyer80.61%6,79116.81%1,4162.58%2178,424
Fayette75.93%10,86822.44%3,2121.63%23414,314
Fentress86.69%4,55911.12%5852.19%1155,259
Franklin75.05%8,64322.93%2,6412.02%23211,516
Gibson76.61%9,64021.21%2,6692.18%27412,583
Giles76.23%5,83220.68%1,5823.09%2377,651
Grainger85.28%4,58813.12%7061.60%865,380
Greene79.26%13,57417.83%3,0542.91%49816,951
Grundy80.82%2,73515.90%5383.28%1113,384
Hamblen78.86%10,33519.01%2,4922.13%27913,126
Hamilton60.02%60,64738.46%38,8621.52%1,542101,051
Hancock84.60%1,11012.58%1652.82%371,312
Hardeman62.41%3,48635.50%1,9832.09%1175,586
Hardin85.93%5,60612.45%8121.62%1066,524
Hawkins82.42%11,66915.56%2,2032.02%28614,158
Haywood51.14%2,01147.30%1,8601.56%613,932
Henderson85.61%5,55112.68%8221.71%1116,484
Henry78.52%6,67418.87%1,6042.61%2228,500
Hickman78.76%4,57719.41%1,1281.83%1065,811
Houston74.25%1,83723.00%5692.75%682,474
Humphreys74.63%3,34422.85%1,0242.52%1134,481
Jackson75.80%2,41519.99%6374.21%1343,186
Jefferson81.52%10,80615.90%2,1072.58%34213,255
Johnson85.05%4,41513.25%6881.70%885,191
Knox59.95%76,88038.32%49,1401.73%2,222128,242
Lake78.69%91217.69%2053.62%421,159
Lauderdale69.81%3,34627.56%1,3212.63%1264,793
Lawrence81.96%8,27615.34%1,5492.70%27210,097
Lewis80.09%2,72318.03%6131.88%643,400
Lincoln81.89%7,45215.45%1,4062.66%2429,100
Loudon78.15%15,28519.43%3,8012.42%47319,559
Macon85.13%4,14012.03%5852.84%1384,863
Madison63.77%15,35734.24%8,2461.99%47924,082
Marion77.23%5,94720.91%1,6101.86%1437,700
Marshall75.99%6,73421.00%1,8613.01%2678,862
Maury72.26%22,19825.75%7,9101.99%61030,718
McMinn80.35%10,37114.39%1,8585.26%67912,908
McNairy83.06%5,86414.67%1,0362.27%1607,060
Meigs82.21%2,70314.93%4912.86%943,288
Monroe82.93%9,83014.75%1,7482.23%27511,853
Montgomery60.22%24,81336.38%14,9883.40%1,40041,201
Moore83.33%1,72514.59%3022.08%432,070
Morgan83.97%3,84413.63%6242.40%1104,578
Obion82.63%6,41815.10%1,1732.27%1767,767
Overton78.45%4,80518.73%1,1472.82%1736,125
Perry80.22%1,54917.56%3392.22%431,931
Pickett80.06%1,54216.15%3113.79%731,929
Polk83.32%4,00014.83%7121.85%894,801
Putnam72.43%14,21724.84%4,8752.73%53619,628
Rhea85.11%6,55113.42%1,0331.47%1137,697
Roane75.23%11,87121.15%3,3373.62%57215,780
Robertson75.97%14,06621.86%4,0482.17%40018,514
Rutherford62.00%46,57535.87%26,9482.13%1,60475,127
Scott87.56%3,39410.19%3952.25%873,876
Sequatchie83.92%3,64313.87%6022.21%964,341
Sevier80.35%18,31416.75%3,8182.90%66022,792
Shelby43.20%86,38454.51%108,9952.29%4,583199,962
Smith79.52%4,20517.53%9272.95%1565,288
Stewart79.55%3,16717.76%7072.69%1073,981
Sullivan77.90%32,89720.78%8,7771.32%55642,230
Sumner71.57%37,46626.12%13,6722.31%1,20952,347
Tipton76.69%11,48720.58%3,0832.73%40914,979
Trousdale77.39%1,66020.93%4491.68%362,145
Unicoi80.66%4,23817.32%9102.02%1065,254
Union82.90%3,45614.99%6252.11%884,169
Van Buren82.35%1,56314.70%2792.95%561,898
Warren75.29%6,66822.16%1,9632.55%2268,857
Washington69.42%24,33028.66%10,0461.92%67135,047
Wayne86.59%3,09411.14%3982.27%813,573
Weakley78.94%6,41718.32%1,4892.74%2238,129
White82.41%5,74415.42%1,0752.17%1516,970
Williamson68.06%58,13230.57%26,1161.37%1,16985,417
Wilson70.69%31,49627.40%12,2081.91%84844,552
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ↑ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2022". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. ↑ "2022 Midterm Election Events Calendar". www.cnn.com. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
  3. ↑ "Doctor critical of lax COVID rules wins Tenn. Dem gov race". AP NEWS. August 5, 2022. Retrieved August 5, 2022.
  4. ↑ McCullough, Erin (November 11, 2022). "Less than 40% of registered voters in Tennessee turned out for the 2022 midterms". WKRN News 2. Retrieved November 11, 2022.
  5. ↑ Gonzales, Tony (November 10, 2022). "Tennessee voter turnout far below 2018 showing". 90.3 WPLM News. Retrieved December 30, 2022.
  6. ↑ Ebert, Joel. "'I love this job': Bill Lee says he'll seek a second term as Tennessee governor". The Tennessean. The USA Today Network. Retrieved September 7, 2020.
  7. 1 2 3 4 "Tennessee Petitions". TNSOS. Retrieved April 8, 2022.
  8. ↑ "New PAC Targets Gov. Lee's Re-Election Bid". Across Tennessee, TN Patch. April 29, 2021. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  9. ↑ Rau, Nate (March 23, 2022). "Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles enters District 5 race". Axios. Archived from the original on March 28, 2022. Retrieved March 28, 2022.
  10. 1 2 Murray, Stephanie (August 16, 2021). "Redistricting looms in Texas". Politico. Archived from the original on August 16, 2021. Retrieved August 30, 2021.
  11. 1 2 "Nikki Haley endorses Republican Governor". ABC News. Retrieved July 23, 2021.
  12. ↑ "August 4, 2022 Republican Primary Governor" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
  13. ↑ "Doctor eyes run for governor". Nashville Post. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  14. ↑ "Sumner County doctor Jason Martin announces gubernatorial campaign | News | wsmv.com". www.wsmv.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  15. ↑ "First Democratic Candidate for Governor". Tri-State Defender. April 8, 2021. Retrieved July 29, 2021.
  16. ↑ "Memphis City Councilman JB Smiley Jr. Enters Democratic Race for Tennessee Governor". The Commercial Appeal. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
  17. ↑ "Democrats running for governor make it official". Nashville Post. Retrieved August 26, 2021.
  18. ↑ ""I'm suspending my campaign for governor."". Facebook. Retrieved December 23, 2021.
  19. ↑ "New PAC targets Lee's re-election bid". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  20. ↑ "I'm so excited y'all, @jasonbmartin is exactly the leadership TN families need now!". Twitter. Retrieved August 24, 2021.
  21. ↑ "Memphis congressman endorses in '22 gubernatorial primary". Nashville Post. October 13, 2021. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  22. ↑ "Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris endorses Smiley for governor". May 25, 2022. Retrieved May 25, 2022.
  23. ↑ "20-Plus Tennessee Leaders Announce Support for JB Smiley, Jr. for Governor". The Tennessee Tribune. October 21, 2021. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  24. ↑ "August 4, 2022 Democratic Primary Governor" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
  25. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 "Petition Information". Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved April 7, 2022.
  26. ↑ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  27. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  28. ↑ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  29. ↑ "Tennessee Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  30. ↑ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  31. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  32. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  33. ↑ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  34. ↑ "Tennessee Grades & Endorsements". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 15, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  35. ↑ "Bill Lee's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  36. ↑ "NFIB Tennessee PAC Endorses Bill Lee for Second Term as Governor". National Federation of Independent Businesses. September 15, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  37. ↑ "Tennessee Endorsements". National Right to Life. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  38. ↑ "General Election Endorsements". Retrieved October 17, 2022.
  39. ↑ "Tennessee - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  40. ↑ State of Tennessee General Election Results Governor, November 8, 2022, Results By Office (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
  41. ↑ "2022 Gubernatorial Results by County" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 18, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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