Registration of candidates

The registration of candidates for the elections was also clouded by criticism for the "unclear" arguments used by the Registry of Citizens and the magistrates of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The ticket of Movement for the Liberation of Peoples was not registered due to "legal problems" of the vice-presidential candidate Jordán Rodas;^[24] while Roberto Arzú's candidacy was revoked for allegedly carrying out "anticipated campaigning".^[24] Presidential candidate Edmond Mulet was denounced by the Public Prosecution Service for three consecutive days. The first complaint he received was for having spoken out against the investigation of the nine journalists during the Zamora trial, while the other two were for allegedly engaging in "anticipated campaigning" for which reason Mulet's participation is uncertain.^[25][26] The Supreme Court of Justice rejected the challenge, however, on 11 May, the Public Prosecution Service challenged Mulet's candidacy before the Constitutional Court.^[27]

On 21 March 2023, the Electoral Tribunal announced that it had rejected the candidacy of the party Commitment, Renewal and Order due to "legal problems" of presidential candidate Francisco Arredondo.^[28] The political party filed a legal appeal to reverse the decision of the electoral court, finally, the magistrates accepted the appeal and registered Arredondo as a presidential candidate.^[29] The candidacies presented by the Opportunities and Development Party were annulled for not correctly carrying out their nomination assemblies.^[30]

Cabal^[31] and the URNG–Winaq coalition^[32] challenged the candidacy of Zury Ríos before the Registry of Citizens, stating that the Constitution prevented her from running for the presidency because she is the daughter of former president Efraín Ríos Montt who came to power through a coup. Although the appeals were dismissed, Cabal also challenged before the Supreme Court of Justice and the Constitutional Court but they were rejected and Ríos's candidacy remained firm.^[31][33]

Todos challenged the candidacy of Sandra Torres before the Registry of Citizens, the Supreme Court of Justice and the Constitutional Court, affirming that Romeo Guerra, Torres's nominee for vice president, had a constitutional impediment, since the Constitution prevents ministers of worship to running for president and vice president and Guerra was an evangelical pastor before becoming Torres's running mate. The process was rejected by the Electoral Registry and the Supreme Court of Justice.^[34][35] Finally, the Constitutional Court rejected the legal challenge and Torres's candidacy was maintained.^[36]

In May 2023, Change challenged the candidacy of Carlos Pineda before the Supreme Court of Justice. The legal filing claimed that there were "irregularities" in the nomination assemblies of Citizen Prosperity.^[37] On 19 May, a judge accepted the legal appeal presented, so Carlos Pineda's candidacy was annulled, along with 218 other candidates for deputies and mayors from Citizen Prosperity.^[38][39] On 9 June, a court accepted a legal appeal filed by the Secretary-General of Citizen Prosperity Lilian Piedad García and ordered the registration of lists for candidates for deputies in eleven departments, however, the presidential ticket, the candidates for deputies by National List, the Central District, the Central American Parliament and the other eleven departments, and mayoral candidates remained out of contention.^[40] On 11 June, the Constitutional Court revoked the legal recourse granted to the party and ordered the Public Prosecution Service to investigate the court that issued the recourse.^[41]

The opposition party Semilla has alleged "irregularities" in a case against it for allegedly forging the signature of a party affiliate. The file was transferred from the Electoral Crimes Prosecutor's Office to the Special Prosecutor's Office Against Impunity led by Curruchiche. Presidential candidate Bernardo Arévalo said that these actions put the party's electoral participation at risk.^[42] Deputy Samuel Pérez Álvarez alleged "partiality" on the part of the judicial authorities. He also indicated that in 2015, the Registry of Citizens detected alleged anomalies in almost 12,000 signatures of members of the Progressive Liberator Party (now Valor) and the process has not advanced.^[43][44]

The opposition party Will, Opportunity and Solidarity led by presidential candidate Manuel Villacorta was denounced for allegedly falsifying affiliate signatures in May 2023. Villacorta has previously denounced "systematic attacks" to curb his party's participation.^[45][46]

Fraud allegations

Some political parties and their presidential candidates such as Amílcar Rivera (Victory),^[51] Arévalo (Semilla)^[51] and Manuel Villacorta (Will, Opportunity and Solidarity)^[52] openly expressed the possibility of electoral fraud. Adding to these denunciations were the excluded presidential candidates Thelma Cabrera (Movement for the Liberation of Peoples),^[53] Roberto Arzú (Podemos)^[52] and Pineda (Citizen Prosperity),^[54] the last of whom saw a steep rise in opinion polls in April 2023, placing him within the top three finishers.^[55]

Journalist Andrés Oppenheimer compared the electoral fraud accusations in Guatemala to Donald Trump's attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 United States presidential election.^[56]

President

The President of Guatemala is elected using the two-round system.^[57]

Congress

The 160 members of Congress are elected by two methods; 130 are elected from 22 multi-member constituencies based on the departments, with the remaining 31 elected from a single nationwide constituency. Seats are elected using closed list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the D'Hondt method.^[57]

Rejected

Party		Presidential candidate		Vice presidential candidate[lower-alpha 1]		Date declared
	MLP		Thelma Cabrera		Jordán Rodas Ombudsman (2017–2022)	28 December 2022[80]
	Podemos		Roberto Arzú	David Pineda	11 December 2022[81]
	PODER		Óscar Rodolfo Castañeda Minister of Agriculture (2000) Member of the Congress (1996–2000)	Luis Adrián Ruiz Deputy Minister of Communications (2012)	19 March 2023[82]
	PC		Carlos Pineda	Efraín Orozco	5 February 2023[83]

Declined

Second round

First round

President

Congress

Party or alliance				National			District			Total seats	+/–
				Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats
	Vamos			628,126	15.06	6	696,325	15.54	33	39	+23
	National Unity of Hope			538,010	12.90	5	571,867	12.76	23	28	–26
	Semilla			488,692	11.72	5	430,297	9.60	18	23	+16
	Cabal			371,215	8.90	3	401,035	8.95	15	18	New
	Vision with Values			288,546	6.92	3	258,605	5.77	8	11	+4
	Valor–Unionist		Valor–Unionist	229,861	5.51	2	124,133	2.77	3	5	New
			Valor			–	197,538	4.41	7	7	–2
			Unionist Party			–	22,363	0.50	0	0	–3
	Will, Opportunity and Solidarity			186,438	4.47	1	178,750	3.99	3	4	New
	Todos			169,101	4.05	1	198,893	4.44	5	6	–1
	URNG–MAIZ–Winaq		URNG–MAIZ–Winaq	133,694	3.21	1	25,013	0.56	0	1	New
			Winaq			–	76,137	1.70	0	0	–3
			Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity			–	87,687	1.96	0	0	–3
	Nosotros			131,217	3.15	1	138,742	3.10	2	3	New
	Victory			124,946	3.00	1	126,830	2.83	2	3	–
	Bienestar Nacional			112,742	2.70	1	121,488	2.71	3	4	–4
	Blue Party			98,487	2.36	1	109,802	2.45	1	2	New
	Elephant Community			95,435	2.29	1	90,040	2.01	1	2	New
	Podemos			86,475	2.07	0	87,011	1.94	0	0	–1
	Commitment, Renewal and Order			84,667	2.03	0	102,421	2.29	3	3	–3
	Movement for the Liberation of Peoples			74,802	1.79	0	81,142	1.81	0	0	–1
	Humanist Party of Guatemala			61,564	1.48	0	72,059	1.61	0	0	–6
	Change			52,754	1.26	0	87,821	1.96	1	1	New
	National Advancement Party			45,940	1.10	0	41,594	0.93	0	0	–2
	My Family			45,402	1.09	0	44,576	0.99	0	0	New
	Republican Union			34,982	0.84	0	34,159	0.76	0	0	New
	National Convergence Front			28,827	0.69	0	29,386	0.66	0	0	–8
	Guatemalan People's Party			23,837	0.57	0	12,672	0.28	0	0	New
	Republican Party			21,658	0.52	0	20,115	0.45	0	0	New
	National Integration Party			13,927	0.33	0	12,416	0.28	0	0	New
Total				4,171,345	100.00	32	4,480,917	100.00	128	160	–
Source: TSE (99.13% counted, national votes) TSE

Central American Parliament

Mayors

First round

Map of the number of invalid and blank votes as a share of total votes by municipality in the first round

No presidential candidate obtained more than 50% of the vote in the first round, meaning a second round was required. In an upset, Bernardo Arévalo finished in second place, qualifying for the runoff along with one of the favorites to win, former first lady and 2015 and 2019 presidential runner-up Sandra Torres. Zury Ríos and Edmond Mulet, two other candidates that ranked near the top of opinion polls, finished in 6th and 5th place, respectively.

The first round also saw a record number of invalid ballots, where more than 24% of voters either spoilt their ballots or left their ballots blank entirely. This was attributed to distrust among the electorate towards the electoral system, including the disqualification of some presidential candidates.^[100][101]

Ensuing controversies

President Alejandro Giammattei and members of his cabinet meet with Eladio Loizaga and an OAS delegation

The official count of the general election by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal indicated that Sandra Torres from National Unity of Hope and Bernardo Arévalo from Semilla would contest the second round.^[102] However, the certification of the result by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal was delayed after the Constitutional Court of Guatemala granted an injunction to 10 parties that challenged the result. The court wanted to compare the tallies in the electoral system with the tallies from the polling places. Due to the injunction, the results of the races for president, vice president, all of the seats in Congress and hundreds of local elections remained unofficial.^[103] The Electoral Observation Mission in Guatemala, the United Nations, the Organization of American States, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union asked the court to respect the electoral results, said that the results matched their observations and denied any accusations of electoral fraud.^{[103][104][105][106][107]}

The Supreme Court of Justice ruled that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal correctly carried out what was requested by the Constitutional Court and rejected the legal recourse requested by the nine parties, therefore releasing the injunction and permitted the results be made official.^[108]

On 12 July, the Public Prosecution Service announced that at their request judge Fredy Orellana had suspended Semilla's legal personality for alleged cases of false signatures to establish the party.^[109] However, Article 92 of the Electoral and Political Parties Law establishes that "A party may not be suspended after an election has been called and until it has been held".^[110] Previously, member of Congress Samuel Pérez Álvarez of Semilla had announced the possibility of attempting a legal "maneuver" to dissolve the party and thus avoid Arévalo's participation in a second round.^[111] The Public Prosecution Service's actions were widely condemned by the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and various foreign governments.^[112]

On 13 July, the Constitutional Court reversed the suspension, paving the way for the second round of the presidential election to proceed.^[113] Although the Constitutional Court legally favored Semilla, the judge and the Public Prosecution Service continued to pressure the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to cancel the party's participation in the election.^[114][115] Judge Orellana requested the capture of electoral officials with immunity and then ordered a search of the headquarters of the Semilla party. During the raid at the party headquarters, Semilla's legal team, led by Juan Gerardo Guerrero and Ligia Hernández, submitted a petition for personal exhibition in order to clarify the situation of the workers who were inside the facilities.^[116][117] The Supreme Electoral Tribunal requested a legal appeal to the Constitutional Court, affirming that these authorities could attempt to violate the "democratic rule of law" in the future, or the constitutional order.^[118]

On 19 August, two days before the runoff, the Supreme Court of Justice granted a permanent injunction to Semilla, blocking a lower court's order suspending the party's legal status.^[119]

Second round

President Giammattei casts his ballot during the second round

Arévalo defeated Torres in the second round with nearly 61 percent of the vote in what was seen as a landslide.^[3]

On the day of the second round of the election, there were several bomb explosions at voting centers across the country.^[120]

After the results were announced on the night of 20 August, hundreds of citizens congregated in the Obelisco in Guatemala City, as well as the central park of Quetzaltenango to celebrate Arévalo's victory.^[121]

On 28 August, the TSE, in a conference, officialized the results of the second round.^[122]

Reactions

Political crisis

In August, judge Fredy Orellana issued a ruling to reinstate a suspension of Semilla's party registration. The Registry of Citizens of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal provisionally cancelled the party's registration on 28 August.^[140] Semilla filed an appeal, saying the ruling was an attempt to prevent the party's parliamentarians and president-elect from taking office.^[141] Semilla had previously been targeted during the 2019 elections, with its presidential candidate, Thelma Aldana, considered the frontrunner, having her candidacy rejected for dubious reasons. She appealed but was denied.^[142][143] On 30 August 2023, President of Congress Shirley Rivera dissolved the parliamentary group of Semilla and declared them "independent". President-elect and member of Congress Bernardo Arévalo was also affected by the decision.^[144] On 3 September, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal nullified the suspension of the party's registration through October.^[145][146] The offices of the TSE were also raided several times under the pretense of investigating alleged fraud, despite no evidence being presented.^[147]

Shortly after announcing Arévalo as winner, documents were published from the citizens registry suspending Semilla's registration once more, meaning that the members of Congress elected as part of the party would be forced to sit as independents. Arévalo said he would not "give up", and the move was condemned by the Organization of American States.^[148] Following several raids on Semilla offices around the country committed by the Public Prosecutor's Office, Arévalo formally suspended his participation in the presidential transition, saying that the raids were "flagrant crimes of abuse of authority for electoral purposes". President Alejandro Giammattei disagreed with the move, stating that the executive branch had nothing to do with it.^[149]

Following urging from the international community, Arévalo formally resumed the process on 4 October, despite Attorney General of Guatemala María Consuelo Porras' continued effort to deregister Semilla as a political party, including raids on the Supreme Electoral Tribune's offices.^[150] An OAS mediator was named to help manage the transition two days later,^[151] with the organisation's observation mission stating that it appeared the actions by prosecutors were intended to keep Arévalo from taking office. Protests in favor of Arévalo also intensified following the Supreme Court of Justice of Guatemala upholding the party's suspension.^[152] Schools were subsequently closed across the country, and President Giammattei condemned any violence that might occur.^{[153][154][155]}

On 2 November, Movimiento Semilla was officially suspended by the Public Ministry. Indigenous movements vowed to continue to protest, and the United States government stripped the visas of 14 people in the Public Ministry on the same day. The U.S. State Department's Deputy Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Eric Jacobstein, stated that the suspension was worrisome as an apparent way to interfere with Arévalo's transition to office. The suspension also means that members of the party elected to the Congress of the Republic of Guatemala under the banner of the party cannot hold leadership positions or chair committees. It also means that the party cannot hold assemblies or carry out administrative procedures.^[156][157]

In mid-November, the Public Ministry requested that the immunity of the President-elect Arévalo and the Vice President-elect Herrera be withdrawn for allegedly participating in the takeover of the facilities of the state university, the Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala, which occurred between April 2022 to June 2023.^[158][159] This takeover occurred as a result of alleged irregularities that occurred in the elections for rector of the university, where Walter Mazariegos was elected.^[159] In 2023, Mazariegos was included on the United States government's Engel List. According to the State Department, Mazariegos "undermined democratic processes or institutions by accepting the position of rector of the public education institution in July 2022 following a fraudulent selection process".^[160] The capture of former ombudsman and opposition candidate for rector Jordán Rodas, former candidate for member of Congress for Semilla Marcela Blanco and Gabriela Dávila, sister of member of Congress Aldo Dávila, were ordered. The arrest of around twenty university students and professors who opposed Mazariegos was also ordered.^[159]

This case raised controversy because the Public Ministry continued with the investigation against the President-elect and Vice President-elect despite the fact that the National Institute of Forensic Sciences of Guatemala determined through an expert report that there were no indications of the alleged participation of Arévalo and Herrera. However, the Public Ministry criticized the results.^[161] In early December, prosecutor's from Porras office called for the results to be officially annulled due to electoral fraud, despite international observers declaring the election to have been free from fraud. This was met with further protests against the Attorney General's office, and further condemnation by international organizations, such as the United Nations and OAS again.^[162]

In 2023, Porras final attempt to block the inauguration by alleging fraud was taken to the Constitutional Court of Guatemala, who denied Porras her attempt and later issued an order to guarantee Arévalo his inauguration.^[163] In January, it issued another order giving immunity to the Vice President elect, Karin Herrera, who had been repeatedly under risk of being arrested by Porras.^[164] Despite this, however, Porras has continued to target former members of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, and arrested former Interior Minister David Napoleón Barrientos Girón for his refusal to violently disperse protests against Porras.^[165]