2023 Virginia Senate
7th District special election
January 10, 2023 (2023-01-10)
Virginia's 7th Senate district
Turnout25%[1]
 
Candidate Aaron Rouse Kevin H. Adams
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 19,923 19,227
Percentage 50.84% 49.07%
Precinct results
Rouse:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Adams:      50–60%      60–70%
Senator before election

Jen Kiggans
Republican

 Elected Senator

Aaron Rouse
Democratic

On January 10, 2023, voters in the 7th district of the Virginia Senate voted in a special election to fill the seat left vacant by Republican Jen Kiggans, the previous incumbent, who had resigned on January 3, 2023, after having being elected to Congress the preceding November. New state legislative maps took effect on January 11, 2023, at the start of 2023 legislative. However, this special election took place under previous district lines. As a result of the redistricting process, the 7th district became the 22nd district in November,.[lower-alpha 1] Final official vote tallies were not released until January 13 because mail-in ballots were accepted after election day if postmarked for January 10. Democrat Aaron Rouse, an at-large Virginia Beach City Council member and former professional football player defeated Republican Kevin Adams, a retired U.S. Navy lieutenant commander and small business owner.

Background

Prior to this election, Virginia Democrats held a 21–18 majority in the Virginia Senate. Virginia Republicans hoped to retain to their seat to prevent the Democratic caucus from expanding. Although this election was seen as both a bellwether heading into the 2023 Virginia elections in November and a popularity test for incumbent governor Glenn Youngkin, observers also viewed the race as a small part of the much larger abortion debate in Virginia as well as the rest of the country.[2] This special election comes on the bootheels of Governor Youngkin's proposal to ban abortion in Virginia after 15 weeks of pregnancy with exceptions for rape, incest, and to preserve the mother's life. While the Senate President pro tempore Louise Lucas and the Virginia Senate Democrats have said that they oppose this restriction, there had been a couple of conservative-leaning Democrats who agree with this proposal. The result of this special election help determine the legislative viability of the 15-week ban. Virginia currently allows abortion through the second trimester, about 26 weeks, and in the third only if the mother's life or health is at serious risk, as certified by three doctors.[3]

Virginia holds off-year elections, and the Senate is up for renewal in November 2023, thus the special election's victor would only serve for a single year. Republican Jen Kiggans, whose election to the United States House of Representatives prompted the special election, narrowly won this seat in 2019 by a margin of 0.87% or 511 votes. It was the closest seat in the 2019 Virginia Senate election. When Kiggans resigned to take her place in the 118th Congress, Democrats mobilized in hopes of flipping the district. Seeing as the 7th (soon to be 22nd) district was drawn to be more favorable for Democrats, if Aaron Rouse won, it would mean that he would have a better chance to hold on to his seat in the upcoming elections. Some pundits have already portrayed the 2023 Virginia Elections as being a "referendum" on Governor Youngkin. The failure of the Virginia Republicans in November could affect the decision for Youngkin to run for President of the United States in 2024, as some pundits have suggested.[4]

The 7th Senate District

Virginia's 7th State Senate district
  • Virginia's 7th Senate district had been located in the Hampton Roads metropolitan area in southeastern Virginia, including much of Virginia Beach and a small part of Norfolk.[5] As of December 2022, the district was located entirely within Virginia's 2nd congressional district, and overlaped with the 21st, 82nd, 83rd, 85th, and 90th districts of the Virginia House of Delegates.[6]
  • The district fully or mostly incorporated Virginia Beach City Council Districts 9 (Bayside), District 4 (Rosemont, Middleton), District 1 (Homestead, Avalon Hills), and District 7 (Charlestown). It also incorporates parts of District 3 (Kempsville), half of District 8 (Thalia, Malibu), and precinct 103 located in District 10 (near the Plaza Azteca on the corner of Holland & Plaza Trail.)[7] The district composes most of the old Princess Anne County Magisterial Districts of Bayside and Kempsville. In regards to the parts of the district in Norfolk, the precincts of Azalea Gardens, Little Creek, and half of Tarrallton are included.[8]
  • As of the 2020 United States census, District 7 is home to 218,178. The district is majority white with 55.5% of the population reporting as such. A further 23.1% of the district reported as Black or African American, 9.4% as Asian, 7.8% as Hispanic and/or Latino, and 2.7% as some other race. According to the U.S. Census, the district has a median income of $73.3k, a high school graduation rate of 93.2%, and a college graduation rate of 35.6%.
  • This district is 100% urban. It incorporates many older neighborhoods in Virginia Beach. It also includes Virginia Beach Town Center within its borders. Even though the district is home to a large population of active and retired veterans, up to 25% in parts of the district according to some estimates,[9] it only incorporates a small part of Joint Expeditionary Base-Little Creek. The presence of the military in this district is very hard to miss.[10] Of the previous nine state senators who have served in districts covering this area, six were military veterans, mostly navy.

Politically speaking, this district had not been unaffected by the "blue shift" within suburban America over the last decade.[11] While it had been competitive on the federal and state-wide level, it has traditionally been more favorable to Republicans in State Senate elections. Frank Wagner was the state senator in District 7 prior to Jen kiggans. He served from 2001 until his resignation in 2019. He won a consequetive sting of uncompetitive and uncontested elections up until 2015, when he still managed to run ahead of the state-wide margin. Because Virginia State Senate Elections always happen in the middle of a gubernatorial term it makes it hard to make a 1:1 direct comparison. Even still, whenever the Democrat managed to win the district on the federal or state-wide, it would be several more points to the right the following senate election due to down-ballot lag. According to the VPAP, during the 2022 United States Congressional election, Kiggans ran four points behind incumbent Elaine Luria in her own district,[12][13] even after Youngkin won the seat by four the year before. District 7 has in the last few years, just like the city it is a part of, become prone to varying swings election to election, and often has a marginal result. The result that District 7 produced for the special election was yet again marginal, and yet again several points to the right compared to the Congressional results not even nine weeks ago.

Year Office Results[14][15]
2021 Governor Youngkin 51.6-47.6%
2020 President Biden 54.1–44.1%
2017 Governor Northam 53.5–45.3%
2016 President Clinton 47.1–46.9%
2014 Senate Gillespie 49.9–47.4%
2013 Governor Cuccinelli 47.1–46.4%
2012 President Obama 49.5–49.1%
Senate Kaine 51.7–48.3%

Candidates

Democrat Aaron Rouse, an At-large Virginia Beach City Council member since 2018, ran against retired U.S. Navy lieutenant commander and small business owner Kevin Adams.

Campaign

Fundraising

Candidate Fundraising as of Jan 4, 2023[16]
Adams Raised
 
 989.7k
Adams Spent
 
 852.8k
Rouse Raised
 
 977.8k
Rouse Spent
 
 899.5k

Election

2023 Virginia's 7th Senate district special election[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Aaron Rouse 19,923 50.84
Republican Kevin Adams 19,227 49.07
Democratic gain from Republican

Notably, early in person and early mail in votes were not allocated by precinct. Adams won the early in person votes in the district by 34 votes or 0.6%, but Rouse won early mail in votes by 2,745 votes or 44%. Rouse's raw margin of victory in absentee votes was significantly greater than his raw margin of victory in the district overall.

Aftermath

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ District 7 and the new 22 overlap significantly

References

  1. ↑ "SD7 Turnout". Twitter. VPAP. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
  2. ↑ Vozzella, Laura (January 6, 2023). "Abortion at the forefront in special election for Virginia Senate seat". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Interactive Map: US Abortion Policies and Access After Roe". Guttmacher Institute. Guttmacher Institute. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
  4. ↑ MOOMAW, GRAHAM (January 10, 2023). "Rouse on track to flip GOP seat, boosting Democratic edge in Virginia Senate". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Jen A. Kiggans". Senate of Virginia. Retrieved August 9, 2019.
  6. ↑ David Jarman. "How do counties, House districts, and legislative districts all overlap?". Daily Kos. Retrieved June 7, 2021.
  7. ↑ "City Council Districts". The City of Virginia Beach - Open Data Portal. Virginia Beach City Council. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  8. ↑ "Election Precincts". ArcGIS. City of Norfolk. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  9. ↑ "Veterans in Hampton Roads". Hampton Roads Planning District Commission. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  10. ↑ CAITLYN, BURCHETT (December 13, 2022). "How the proposed US defense spending bill will affect Hampton Roads military installations". Stars and Stripes. THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  11. ↑ Steger, Preston (September 12, 2022). "'Liable to change hands': UVA political expert weighs in on House race between Elaine Luria, Jen Kiggans". 13News Now. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  12. ↑ "Midterm Results in SD7". VPAP. Virginia Public Access Project. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  13. ↑ Shapiro, Walter (August 3, 2022). "The Rapid Rise of Elaine Luria, the Boldest Moderate in Congress". The New Republic. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  14. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections Statewide Results by LD". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 9, 2019.
  15. ↑ "2020 Presidential by Legislative District & Most Recent Election Result". CNalysis. April 16, 2021. Retrieved June 7, 2021.
  16. ↑ "Special Election Finance Reports". VPAP. Virginia Public Access Project. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Jan. 10 Special Election". Virginia Public Access Project. VPAP. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
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