2024 United States Senate election in Virginia
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic


The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is running for re-election to a third term in office. Kaine was re-elected with 57.0% of the vote in 2018. Primary election will take place on June 18, 2024.[1]

Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.[2][3][4]

Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen. He also won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.[5][6]

This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[7]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Tim Kaine
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Tim Kaine (D) $8,997,155 $4,155,265 $7,361,552
Source: Federal Election Commission[16]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Jonathan Emord
U.S. representatives
Kimberly Lowe
Organizations
Scott Parkinson
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Hung Cao (R) $732,775 $338,766 $486,490
Johnathan Emord (R) $650,526 $636,988 $13,537
Eddie Garcia (R) $202,249 $170,683 $31,566
Gwen Hickman (R) $23,710 $16,666 $7,043
Kimberly Lowe (R) $32,371 $31,802 $569
Scott Parkinson (R) $548,691 $168,425 $380,265
Chuck Smith (R) $316,802 $255,296 $61,505
Ron Vitiello (R) $178,192 $118,509 $59,682
Source: Federal Election Commission[16]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[29] Solid D November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[30] Likely D May 4, 2023
Inside Elections[31] Solid D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] Safe D November 9, 2023
CNalysis[33] Solid D November 21, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tim
Kaine (D)		 Glenn
Youngkin (R)		 Other Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University July 14-25, 2023 804 (A) ± 5.46% 47% 42% 3%[lower-alpha 2] 7%
University of Mary Washington September 6–12, 2022 1,000 (A) ± 3.1% 41% 39% 10%[lower-alpha 3] 10%

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ None/Would not vote with 2%, other with 1%
  3. ↑ None/Would not vote with 5%, other with 5%

References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  3. ↑ Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  4. ↑ "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Virginia Elections Database » 2012 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  6. ↑ "Virginia | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  7. 1 2 Flynn, Meagan; Vozzella, Laura (January 20, 2023). "Va. Sen. Tim Kaine says he will seek another term". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  8. 1 2 "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  9. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  10. ↑ "Tim Kaine". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  11. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  12. ↑ NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Advocacy Group Endorses Sen. Tim Kaine for Re-Election". NCPSSM. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  13. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  14. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  15. ↑ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  16. 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  17. ↑ Minock, Nick (July 18, 2023). "Hung Cao launches website and files paperwork to run for 2024 US Senate race in Virginia". WJLA.com.
  18. ↑ Churchill, Victoria (January 31, 2023). "Constitutional Litigator Jonathan Emord Announces U.S. Senate Run". The Republican Standard. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  19. ↑ Rankin, Sarah (January 20, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to seek reelection". AP News. Retrieved April 21, 2023.
  20. ↑ Frisk, Garrett (July 5, 2023). "Attorney Gwen Hickman Joins Virginia Senate Race". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 5, 2023.
  21. 1 2 3 Martz, Michael (August 5, 2023). "Meet the 8 Republicans (and counting) who want to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  22. ↑ Rankin, Sarah (April 3, 2023). "Scott Parkinson runs for Tim Kaine's seat". The Virginia Pilot.
  23. 1 2 "U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE JONATHAN EMORD RECEIVES THE ENDORSEMENTS OF RON PAUL AND BARRY GOLDWATER, JR". FOX 59. March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
  24. ↑ First, Latinos for America. "Latinos for America First". Latinos for America First. Archived from the original on September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  25. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Johnson, Julia. "Tim Kaine GOP challenger holds fundraiser with Trump and DeSantis supporters alike". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  26. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Hazard, Charlotte. "Ex-DeSantis Hill staffer runs for U.S. Senate, says pandemic was his call for change". Just the News. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  27. 1 2 Shipley, Jonathan. "Former Baraboo resident eyes Virginia Senate". News Republic. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  28. 1 2 "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Scott Parkinson for U.S. Senate from Virginia". cupvf.com. April 24, 2023. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  29. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  30. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  31. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  32. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  33. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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