2024 United States presidential election in Virginia
November 5, 2024
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic


The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. Virginia could be considered a secondary battleground state, and may be targeted by the Republican Party in 2024, even though it is generally seen as a blue-leaning state, mainly as a result of the 2021 elections where Republicans won every statewide office up for election.[1][2] Nonetheless the Democrats have won the state in the last four presidential elections, and in 2020 they did so by more than 10 points.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Virginia Republican primary is scheduled to be held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

General election

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Mason-Dixon December 15–19, 2023 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 8%
Roanoke College November 12–20, 2023 686 (A) ± 4.31% 48% 44% 8%
Virginia Commonwealth University July 14–25, 2023 804 (A) ± 5.46% 43% 40% 17%
Roanoke College May 14–23, 2023 678 (A) ± 4.43% 54% 38% 8%
Public Opinion Strategies May 7–9, 2023 500 (LV) – 48% 41% 11%
Roanoke College February 12–21, 2023 590 (RV) ± 4.2% 47% 46% 6%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		 Other /
Undecided
Mason-Dixon December 15–19, 2023 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 36% 14% 8%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Ron
DeSantis
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University July 14–25, 2023 804 (A) ± 5.46% 41% 41% 18%
Public Opinion Strategies May 7–9, 2023 500 (LV) – 44% 44% 12%
Roanoke College February 12–21, 2023 590 (RV) ± 4.2% 43% 48% 8%
Joe Biden vs. Glenn Youngkin
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Glenn
Youngkin
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University July 14–25, 2023 804 (A) ± 5.46% 37% 44% 19%
Roanoke College February 12–21, 2023 590 (RV) ± 4.2% 39% 55% 6%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[4] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[5] Likely D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] Likely D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] Likely D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[8] Likely D December 30, 2023
CNN[9] Lean D January 14, 2024

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ↑ https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RCPoll%20March%202023%20Topline.pdf
  2. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  3. ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  4. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  6. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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