By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament

By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament may be held to fill vacancies in the House of Commons of Canada between the 2021 federal election and the 45th federal election. The 44th Canadian Parliament has existed since 2021 with the membership of its House of Commons having been determined by the results of the 44th Canadian federal election held on September 20, 2021. The Liberal Party of Canada has a minority government during this Parliament, supported by the New Democratic Party in a confidence-and-supply agreement.[1]

Six by-elections have been held during the 44th Parliament. These include; the by-election in Mississauga—Lakeshore, following the resignation of Liberal MP Sven Spengemann to take on a role at the United Nations;[2] in Winnipeg South Centre, left vacant following the death of Liberal MP Jim Carr on December 12; in Oxford, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie on January 28, 2023; in Portage—Lisgar, following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen on February 28; in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, following the resignation of Liberal MP Marc Garneau on March 8; and in Calgary Heritage, following the resignation of Conservative MP Bob Benzen on December 31 in order to return to the private sector.[3][4][5][6][7][8] Additional by-elections are expected in Durham, following Conservative MP Erin O'Toole's resignation on August 1, and in Toronto—St. Paul's, following Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett's announcement that she will resign her seat.[9][10]

The writ for a by-election must be dropped no sooner than 11 days and no later than 180 days after the chief electoral officer is officially notified of a vacancy via a warrant issued by the Speaker. Under the Canada Elections Act, the minimum length of a campaign is 36 days between dropping the writ and election day.[11]

Overview

Electoral district Date vacated Date writ issued By-election date Previous incumbent Party Cause Winner Party Retained
Mississauga—Lakeshore May 27, 2022 November 6, 2022 December 12, 2022 Sven Spengemann Liberal Resigned to accept a position with the United Nations Charles Sousa Liberal Yes
Winnipeg South Centre December 12, 2022 May 14, 2023[12] June 19, 2023[12] Jim Carr Liberal Death (multiple myeloma and kidney failure) Ben Carr Liberal Yes
Oxford January 28, 2023 May 14, 2023[12] June 19, 2023[12] Dave MacKenzie Conservative Retirement Arpan Khanna Conservative Yes
Portage—Lisgar February 28, 2023 May 14, 2023[12] June 19, 2023[12] Candice Bergen Conservative Resignation Branden Leslie Conservative Yes
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount March 8, 2023 May 14, 2023[12] June 19, 2023[12] Marc Garneau Liberal Retirement Anna Gainey Liberal Yes
Calgary Heritage December 31, 2022 June 18, 2023[13] July 24, 2023 Bob Benzen Conservative Resigned to return to the private sector Shuvaloy Majumdar Conservative Yes
Durham August 1, 2023 No earlier than August 14, 2023
No later than January 30, 2024[14]
No earlier than September 25, 2023
No later than March 20, 2024[14]
Erin O'Toole Conservative Resignation
Toronto—St. Paul's Carolyn Bennett Liberal Resignation

December 12, 2022 by-election

Mississauga—Lakeshore

The riding of Mississauga—Lakeshore was vacated on May 27, 2022 following the resignation of Liberal MP Sven Spengemann to accept a position with the United Nations.[2] Spengemann had represented the riding since 2015, when he defeated Conservative incumbent Stella Ambler.

Running for the Liberals was former MPP Charles Sousa, who represented the area provincially from 2007 to 2018 and previously served in the provincial cabinets of Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne, including as Minister of Finance from 2013 to 2018.[15][16][17] Alex Crombie, a former Queen's Park staffer and son of Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie, was seen as a potential candidate prior to Sousa's nomination.[18]

Running for the Conservatives was Ron Chhinzer, a police officer.[16] Michael Ras, who finished second to Spengemann in 2021, considered running for the nomination before declining.[15]

The NDP nominated Julia Cole, who ran for the seat's provincial counterpart in the provincial election earlier in the year, while running for the Greens was Mary Kidnew, a past president of the Hillcrest Ratepayers Association.[16][19]

Rhinoceros Party leader Sébastien CoRhino contested the by-election.[20] As well, the Rhinoceros Party organized a protest against the Trudeau government's abandonment of electoral reform in 2017 by running thirty-two independent candidates, breaking their own record for most candidates nominated in a single riding in Canada, previously set in the riding of Saint Boniface—Saint Vital in the 2021 Canadian federal election.[21]

Canadian federal by-election, December 12, 2022: Mississauga—Lakeshore
Resignation of Sven Spengemann
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
LiberalCharles Sousa12,76651.45+6.50
ConservativeRon Chhinzer9,21537.14-1.54
New DemocraticJulia Kole1,2314.96-4.79
GreenMary Kidnew7923.19+0.94
People'sKhaled Al-Sudani2931.18-3.03
IndependentSean Carson480.19
IndependentCharles Currie440.18
IndependentPatrick Strzalkowski380.15
IndependentPeter House310.12
IndependentMélodie Anderson290.12
RhinocerosSébastien CoRhino240.10-0.07
IndependentConrad Lukawski230.09
IndependentAdam Smith230.09
IndependentStephen Davis210.08
IndependentMarie-Hélène LeBel170.07
IndependentEliana Rosenblum170.07
IndependentMyriam Beaulieu160.06
IndependentRoger Sherwood140.06
IndependentJohn The Engineer Turmel140.06
IndependentJevin David Carroll120.05
IndependentSpencer Rocchi120.05
IndependentTomas Szuchewycz120.05
IndependentJulie St-Amand110.04
IndependentMark Dejewski110.04
IndependentJulian Selody100.04
IndependentBen Teichman100.04
IndependentMylène Bonneau90.04
IndependentKerri Hildebrandt90.04
IndependentLine Bélanger80.03
IndependentAlexandra Engering80.03
IndependentSamuel Jubinville80.03
IndependentJean-Denis Parent Boudreault70.03
IndependentDaniel Gagnon70.03
IndependentDarcy Justin Vanderwater60.02
IndependentDonovan Eckstrom50.02
IndependentDonald Gagnon50.02
IndependentMartin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville30.01
IndependentYsack Dupont20.01
IndependentPascal St-Amand20.01
IndependentAlain Lamontagne10.00
Total valid votes 24,814
Total rejected ballots 1350.54
Turnout 24,94927.76
Eligible voters 89,863
Liberal hold Swing +4.02
Source: Elections Canada[22][23]

Polling

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 27, 2022PDF38.635.56.04.11.11.513.2±4.3 pp521IVR

June 19, 2023 by-elections

Winnipeg South Centre

The riding of Winnipeg South Centre was vacated on December 12, 2022 following the death of Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr.[3] Carr had represented the riding since 2015, when he defeated Conservative incumbent Joyce Bateman, and had been battling multiple myeloma and kidney failure since 2019. Carr also defeated Bateman in rematches in 2019 and 2021.

Running for the Liberals is Carr's son Ben Carr, an educator and former staffer to Mélanie Joly.[24][25][26] Winnipeg city councillor Sherri Rollins briefly ran for the nomination before withdrawing and throwing her support behind Carr.[27][28]

The Conservatives have nominated Damir Stipanovic, an air traffic controller and member of the Royal Canadian Air Force Reserve.[26]

Running again after previously running in 2021 are NDP candidate Julia Riddell, a clinical psychologist, and Green candidate Doug Hemmerling, a local educator.[26]

The Longest Ballot Committee chose Winnipeg South Centre as its target for this group of byelections; the group protests the first-past-the-post election method by registering large numbers of independents in one riding in an election or group of byelections.[29]

Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023: Winnipeg South Centre
Death of Jim Carr
Party Candidate Votes%±%
LiberalBen Carr14,27855.49+9.94
ConservativeDamir Stipanovic6,10023.70-4.11
New DemocraticJulia Riddell3,77814.68-5.95
GreenDoug Hemmerling6982.71-0.04
People'sTylor Baer3241.26-1.51
RhinocerosSébastien CoRhino550.21
IndependentTait Palsson520.20
IndependentJevin David Carroll360.14
IndependentJohn Dale290.11
IndependentGlen MacDonald270.10
IndependentConnie Lukawski240.09
IndependentPaul Stewart220.09
IndependentPatrick Strzalkowski190.07
IndependentMark Dejewski180.07
IndependentStella Galas160.06
IndependentDemetrios Karavas160.06
IndependentMyriam Beaulieu140.05
IndependentChristopher Clacio140.05
IndependentAlain Bourgault130.05
IndependentMartin "Acetaria Caesar" Jubinville130.05
IndependentKrzysztof Krzywinski130.05
IndependentAlain Lamontagne110.04
IndependentMarie-Hélène LeBel110.04
IndependentJordan Wong110.04
IndependentLine Bélanger100.04
IndependentAndrew Kozakewich100.04
IndependentEliana Rosenblum100.04
IndependentGerrit Dogger90.03
IndependentJulie St-Amand90.03
IndependentAlexandra Engering80.03
IndependentAnthony Hamel80.03
IndependentDarcy Justin Vanderwater80.03
IndependentRoger Sherwood70.03
IndependentPascal St-Amand70.03
IndependentDji-Pé Frazer60.02
IndependentDaniel Gagnon60.02
IndependentSpencer Rocchi60.02
IndependentMário Stocco60.02
IndependentManon Marie Lili Desbiens50.02
IndependentYsack Émile Dupont50.02
IndependentYusuf Nasihi50.02
IndependentJaël Champagne Gareau40.02
IndependentDonovan Eckstrom30.01
IndependentRyan Huard20.01
IndependentLorant Polya20.01
IndependentBenjamin Teichman20.01
IndependentGavin Vanderwater20.01
IndependentSaleh Waziruddin10.00
Total valid votes 25,73399.52
Total rejected ballots 1250.48-0.26
Turnout 25,85836.82-32.79
Eligible voters 70,230
Liberal hold Swing +7.02
Source: Elections Canada[30]

Oxford

The riding of Oxford was vacated on January 28, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie, who had held the seat since 2004.[5]

Arpan Khanna, the party's national outreach chair and 2019 candidate in Brampton North[31] defeated Woodstock city-county councillor Deb Tait, MacKenzie's daughter and former ministerial staffer Rick Roth for the Conservative nomination.[32][33] Gerrit Van Dorland, executive assistant to Cypress Hills—Grasslands MP Jeremy Patzer was running for the nomination until he was disqualified by the Conservatives over a dispute about whether he disclosed information to the party.[34] In February 2023, MacKenzie accused the party of supporting Khanna, which he argues is a violation of the party nomination rules based on the Conservative's code of conduct, during the race.[35][36]

Running for the Liberals is local realtor, former educator, and past Woodstock mayoral candidate David Hilderley.[37][38] Citing concerns with the Conservative nomination process, previous MP Dave MacKenzie endorsed Hilderley in April 2023.[37]

Western University professor Cody Groat defeated Matthew Chambers, the party candidate for the riding in the 2019 and 2021 elections for the NDP nomination.[39][40]

Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023: Oxford
Resignation of Dave MacKenzie
Party Candidate Votes%±%
ConservativeArpan Khanna16,68842.92-4.13
LiberalDavid Hilderley14,16436.43+15.90
New DemocraticCody Groat4,05310.42-7.86
Christian HeritageJohn Markus1,6724.30+3.53
People'sWendy Martin1,2783.29-7.36
GreenCheryle Baker8542.20-0.52
IndependentJohn The Engineer Turmel1710.44
Total valid votes 38,88099.38
Total rejected ballots 2430.62+0.01
Turnout 39,12339.81-25.08
Eligible voters 98,270
Conservative hold Swing -10.01
Source: Elections Canada[41]

Portage—Lisgar

The riding of Portage—Lisgar was vacated on February 28, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen.[42][7] Bergen, a cabinet minister in the government of Stephen Harper and the interim leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition from February to September 2022, had held the seat since 2008.

Bergen's former campaign manager Branden Leslie defeated Rejeanne Caron, the party's 2019 candidate in Saint Boniface—Saint Vital and 2021 candidate in Elmwood—Transcona; Winkler resident Don Cruickshank,[43] Morden-Winkler MLA and former Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba cabinet minister Cameron Friesen;[44] and Lawrence Toet, the MP for Elmwood—Transcona from 2011 to 2015 for the Conservative nomination.[6][45][46] Liz Reimer, a Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba staffer and former assistant to Friesen, and Josh Okello were previously running for the nomination, however after Friesen announced his campaign they withdrew their bids in order to run for the Progressive Conservative nomination in Morden-Winkler.[47][48][49]

Maxime Bernier, who is the former MP Beauce and the current leader of the People's Party of Canada, announced on May 12, 2023, that he would run for the seat.[50][51][52]

The Liberals announced Kerry Smith as their candidate on May 13.[53]

Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023: Portage—Lisgar
Resignation of Candice Bergen
Party Candidate Votes%±%
ConservativeBranden Leslie20,25064.95+12.43
People'sMax Bernier5,35217.16−4.42
LiberalKerry Smith2,6668.55−2.40
New DemocraticLisa Tessier-Burch2,2087.08−6.30
GreenNicolas Geddert7042.26
Total valid votes 31,18099.40
Total rejected ballots 1880.60−0.15
Turnout 31,36845.47−20.77
Eligible voters 68,988
Conservative hold Swing +8.42
Source: Elections Canada[54]

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount

The riding of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount was vacated on March 8, 2023, following the resignation of Liberal MP Marc Garneau.[8] Garneau, previously the Minister of Transport and Minister of Foreign Affairs in the government of Justin Trudeau, had held the seat since 2008.

Running for the Liberals is Anna Gainey, former president of the party and daughter of former Montreal Canadiens General Manager Bob Gainey.[55][56] Gainey won the Liberal nomination on May 15, 2023, defeating Fred Headon, vice president and general counsel of Air Canada, and 2021 La Pointe-de-l'Île candidate Jonas Fadeu.[57][56]

Human rights activist and Green Party deputy leader Jonathan Pedneault was announced as the party's candidate on May 15, 2023.[58]

Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023: Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount
Resignation of Marc Garneau
Party Candidate Votes%±%
LiberalAnna Gainey11,05150.87-2.90
New DemocraticJean-François Filion3,00113.81-5.39
ConservativeMathew Kaminski2,93613.51-0.55
GreenJonathan Pedneault2,92213.45+9.42
Bloc QuébécoisLaurence Massey9854.53-0.75
CentristAlex Trainman Montagano5102.35
People'sTiny Olinga1410.65-2.64
RhinocerosSean Carson970.45
Christian HeritageYves Gilbert650.30+0.17
No Affiliation[lower-alpha 1]Félix Vincent Ardea180.08
Total valid votes 21,72699.25
Total rejected ballots 1650.75-0.22
Turnout 29.93-32.63
Eligible voters 73,152
Liberal hold Swing +1.25
Source: Elections Canada[59]
  1. Ardea is a member of the Communist League, an unregistered party; "No Affiliation" is EC's term for leaving the party affiliation blank on a candidate's registration form.

July 24, 2023 by-election

Calgary Heritage

The riding of Calgary Heritage was vacated on December 31, 2022 following the October 20 announcement from Conservative MP Bob Benzen that he would resign his seat by the end of the year in order to return to the private sector. Benzen had held the seat since a 2017 by-election in which he was elected to replace former Prime Minister and former Conservative leader Stephen Harper.[4][60] The by-election was called for July 24, 2023, following the conclusion of the 2023 Alberta general election.[61]

Shuvaloy Majumdar, global director for Harper's international consulting firm Harper & Associates defeated former parliamentary staffer Quinn Heffron for the Conservative nomination.[62][63][32] Elliot Weinstein was acclaimed as the candidate for the Liberal Party.[64]

Canadian federal by-election, July 24, 2023: Calgary Heritage
Resignation of Bob Benzen
Party Candidate Votes%±%
ConservativeShuv Majumdar15,85365.63+7.98
LiberalElliot Weinstein3,46514.34-2.39
New DemocraticGurmit Bhachu3,42914.20-3.21
People'sKelly Lorencz6562.72-2.29
GreenRavenmoon Crocker4071.68+0.26
Christian HeritageLarry R. Heather1440.60-
MaverickDan Irving1310.54-0.79
No AffiliationDonovan Eckstrom710.29-
Total valid votes 24,156100.00
Total rejected ballots 570.24-0.34
Turnout 24,21328.89-37.00
Eligible voters 83,799
Conservative hold Swing +5.13
Source: Elections Canada[65]

Upcoming by-elections

Durham

The riding of Durham, represented by former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole, was vacated on August 1, 2023 following his resignation and retirement from politics.[14][9] O'Toole, who led the party from 2020 to 2022 and served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in the government of Stephen Harper, has held the seat since a 2012 by-election.

Jamil Jivani, conservative commentator and former president of the Canada Strong and Free Network, won the Conservative Party nomination, defeating Theresa Corless, a former Durham Catholic School Board chair.[66]

Robert Rock, a Scugog township councillor, was acclaimed as the candidate for the Liberal Party.[67] Rock previously sought the nomination for the Conservatives,[68] but was not a contestant when the riding association chose its candidate.[69]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Durham
Resignation of Erin O'Toole
Party Candidate Votes%±%
ConservativeJamil Jivani
LiberalRobert Rock
New DemocraticChris Borgia
People'sPatricia Conlin
RhinocerosAdam Smith
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Toronto—St. Paul's

The riding of Toronto—St. Paul's will be vacated following the expected resignation of Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett.[10] Bennett, most recently the Minister of Mental Health and Addictions and Associate Minister of Health in the government of Justin Trudeau, has held the seat since 1997. As of January 12, 2024, the House of Commons website still listed her as a member of parliament[70] and Elections Canada had not announced her seat being vacant.[71]

Running for the Liberal nomination is Leslie Church, former chief of staff to Chrystia Freeland.[72] Other prospective candidates include: former Toronto city councillor Josh Colle; former Ontario MPP Eric Hoskins, who represented the area provincially from 2009 to 2018 and previously served in the provincial cabinets of Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne, including as Minister of Health and Long-Term Care from 2014 to 2018; and Toronto city councillor Josh Matlow, who has represented the area municipally since 2010.[72]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Toronto—St. Paul's
Pending resignation of Carolyn Bennett
Party Candidate Votes%±%
Liberal
Conservative
New Democratic
Green
People's
RhinocerosSean Carson
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Notes

    References

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