2024 Basque regional election
No later than 11 August 2024
All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament
38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Imanol Pradales Pello Otxandiano Eneko Andueza
Party EAJ/PNV EH Bildu PSE–EE (PSOE)
Leader since 25 November 2023 11 December 2023 30 October 2021
Leader's seat Biscay — Gipuzkoa
Last election 31 seats, 38.7% 21 seats, 27.6% 10 seats, 13.5%
Current seats 31 21 10
Seats needed 7 17 28
 
Leader Miren Gorrotxategi Javier de Andrés José Manuel Gil
Party Elkarrekin
Podemos–IU		 PP CS
Leader since 27 February 2020 4 November 2023 29 September 2020
Leader's seat Biscay Álava Álava
Last election 6 seats, 8.0% 4 seats (PP+Cs)[lower-alpha 1] 2 seats (PP+Cs)[lower-alpha 1]
Current seats 6 5 1
Seats needed 32 33 37
 
Leader Amaia Martínez
Party Vox
Leader since 3 August 2020
Leader's seat Álava
Last election 1 seat, 1.9%
Current seats 1
Seats needed 37
Incumbent Lehendakari

Iñigo Urkullu
EAJ/PNV


The 2024 Basque regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 11 August 2024, to elect the 13th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The Basque Parliament is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari.[1] Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[3]

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, with each being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats in order to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces, as required under the regional statute of autonomy.[1][4]

Election date

The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 12 July 2020, which meant that the legislature's term will expire on 12 July 2024. The election decree shall be published in the BOPV no later than 18 June 2024 with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 11 August 2024.[1][4]

The lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament is to be dissolved and a fresh election called.[5]

Following the announcement by Galician president Alfonso Rueda of a snap election in Galicia for 18 February 2024,[6] Urkullu was asked whether he would follow suit and make both elections be held simultaneously—as it had been the case since 2009.[7] To this, he simply stated that "the Basque Country is not Galicia", distancing himself from Rueda's decision.[8] Instead, it was expected that the Basque election would most likely be held in March or April 2024, to allow for more time to approve a final set of bills in the Basque Parliament as well as to avoid a simultaneous call with the European Parliament election on 9 June.[9][10]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time.[11]

Current parliamentary composition[12]
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group EAJ/PNV 31 31
EH Bildu Parliamentary Group EH Bildu 21 21
Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group PSE–EE (PSOE) 10 10
Elkarrekin Podemos–IU Parliamentary Group Podemos 4 6
EzAn–IU 2
Basque People's Parliamentary Group[13] PP 5[lower-alpha 2] 5
Mixed Group Vox 1 2
CS 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][15]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
EAJ/PNV
List
 Imanol Pradales Basque nationalism
Christian democracy
Social democracy		 38.70% 31 check [16]
[17]
EH Bildu
List
 Pello Otxandiano Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism		 27.60% 21 ☒ [18]
[19]
PSE–EE
(PSOE)		 Eneko Andueza Social democracy 13.52% 10 check [20]
Podemos
List
 Miren Gorrotxategi Left-wing populism
Democratic socialism		 7.97%[lower-alpha 3] 6 ☒ [21]
Sumar Alba García Martín Progressivism
Left-wing populism
Green politics		 ☒ [21]
PP
List
 Javier de Andrés Conservatism
Christian democracy		 6.71%[lower-alpha 4] 6 ☒ [22]
CS José Manuel Gil Liberalism ☒ [23]
Vox
List
 Amaia Martínez Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 1.94% 1 ☒

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PNV PSE–EE (PSOE)
Podemos		 Vox PP CS Sumar Lead
ElectoPanel/Crónica Vasca[p 1] 1 Dec–4 Jan 2024 1,470 ? 32.8
26		 31.9
27		 14.2
11		 1.4
0		 – 2.5
1		 9.6
7		 – 6.3
3		 0.9
Hamalgama Métrica/VozPópuli[p 2] 20–27 Dic 2023 1,000 65 37.1
28		 32.1
26		 10.6
8		 [lower-alpha 5] – 2.9
1		 10.6
9		 – 4.9
3		 5.0
Ikerfel/GPS[p 3] 21–24 Nov 2023 3,030 62.0 37.1
29		 29.9
25		 14.3
11		 6.5
3		 – 2.1
0		 8.0
7		 – – 7.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4] 29 Oct–24 Nov 2023 1,390 ? 32.4
25		 32.9
26		 14.4
11		 7.6
5		 – 2.5
1		 9.5
7		 – – 0.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 5] 13–15 Sep 2023 800 ? 32.1
25		 32.5
27		 17.0
13		 5.1
3		 – 2.8
1		 7.9
6		 1.1
0		 – 0.4
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 65.1 24.0
(17)		 23.9
(18)		 25.3
(20)		 [lower-alpha 5] – 2.6
(1)		 11.6
(10)		 – 11.1
(9)		 1.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 6] 28 May–15 Jun 2023 5,804 ? 34.7
28		 31.2
24		 12.3
9		 9.2
6		 – 2.6
1		 9.5
7		 – – 3.5
2023 foral elections 28 May 2023 — 60.0 34.5
(26)		 28.8
(24)		 16.2
(13)		 7.0
(5)		 – 1.5
(0)		 8.9
(7)		 – – 5.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 7] 15 Mar–29 Apr 2022 228 ? 36.2
28		 29.0
24		 12.2
9		 8.8
6		 8.6
7		 2.0
1		 [lower-alpha 6] [lower-alpha 6] – 7.2
Ikerfel/GPS[p 8][p 9] 21–25 Feb 2022 3,333 55.2 39.3
31		 27.3
22		 14.3
12		 7.0
4		 – 2.7
1		 6.2
5		 – – 12.0
Ikerfel/GPS[p 10][p 11] 29 Nov–3 Dec 2021 3,333 55.5 39.6
31		 27.5
23		 14.0
10		 6.7
4		 – 2.2
1		 6.7
6		 – – 12.1
Ikerfel/GPS[p 12][p 13] 27 Sep–1 Oct 2021 3,333 56.2 39.4
31		 27.7
23		 13.9
11		 6.8
4		 6.9
5		 1.9
1		 [lower-alpha 6] [lower-alpha 6] – 11.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 14] 15 Sep 2021 ? ? 40.0
31		 27.3
23		 13.5
10		 6.4
4		 8.2
7		 1.7
0		 [lower-alpha 6] [lower-alpha 6] – 12.7
Ikerfel/GPS[p 15][p 16] 17–21 May 2021 3,333 55.1 39.0
31		 27.5
22		 13.6
10		 6.6
4		 7.7
7		 1.7
1		 [lower-alpha 6] [lower-alpha 6] – 11.5
2020 regional election 12 Jul 2020 — 50.8 38.7
31		 27.6
21		 13.5
10		 8.0
6		 6.7
6		 1.9
1		 [lower-alpha 6] [lower-alpha 6] – 11.1

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Notes

  1. 1 2 Within the PP+Cs alliance in the 2020 election.
  2. ↑ Luis Gordillo, former Cs legislator, joined in October 2021.[14]
  3. ↑ Results for Elkarrekin Podemos–IU in the 2020 election.
  4. ↑ Results for PP+Cs in the 2020 election.
  5. 1 2 3 Within Sumar.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Within PP+Cs.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ↑ "Bildu adelanta al PNV y ganaría las elecciones vascas por un escaño". Crónica Vasca (in Spanish). 8 January 2024.
  2. ↑ "Un PNV y un PSOE a la baja podrían mantener su coalición de Gobierno en País Vasco con una raquítica mayoría". VozPópuli (in Spanish). 1 January 2024.
  3. 1 2 "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Noviembre 2023)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 1 December 2023.
  4. ↑ "ElectoPanel Euskadi (26N): EH Bildu, primero en votos y escaños". Electomanía (in Spanish). 26 November 2023.
  5. ↑ "Otegi cerca de ser 'lehendakari': fuerte caída del PNV y Sánchez tendría que decidir". El Mundo (in Spanish). 17 September 2023.
  6. ↑ "ElectoPanel Euskadi (18J): subida de EH Bildu, que se acerca al PNV". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 June 2023.
  7. ↑ "EuskoPanel (30A): subida de EH Bildu, que roza el 30%. Ligero descenso del PNV". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 April 2022.
  8. 1 2 "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Marzo 2022)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 4 March 2022.
  9. ↑ "PAÍS VASCO. Encuesta Ikerfel/Gobierno Vasco [Sociómetro] 04/03/2022: EH BILDU 27,3% (22), EAJ-PNV 39,3% (31), ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-IU 7,0% (4), PSE-EE 14,3% (12), PP+Cs 6,2% (5), VOX 2,7% (1)". Electograph (in Spanish). 4 March 2022.
  10. 1 2 "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Diciembre 2021)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 16 December 2021.
  11. ↑ "PAÍS VASCO. Encuesta Ikerfel/Gobierno Vasco [Sociómetro] 16/12/2021: EH BILDU 27,5% (23), EAJ-PNV 39,6% (31), ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-IU 6,7% (4), PSE-EE 14,0% (10), PP+Cs 6,7% (6), VOX 2,2% (1)". Electograph (in Spanish). 16 December 2021.
  12. 1 2 "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Octubre 2021)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 8 October 2021.
  13. ↑ "PAÍS VASCO. Encuesta Ikerfel/Gobierno Vasco [Sociómetro] 08/10/2021: EH BILDU 27,7% (23), EAJ-PNV 39,4% (31), ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-IU 6,8% (4), PSE-EE 13,9% (11), PP+Cs 6,9% (5), VOX 1,9% (1)". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 October 2021.
  14. ↑ "EuskoPanel (15S): Vox quedaría fuera del Parlamento Vasco". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 September 2021.
  15. 1 2 "Elecciones Autonómicas: previsión de voto (Mayo 2021)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 28 May 2021.
  16. ↑ "PAÍS VASCO. Encuesta Ikerfel/Gobierno Vasco [Sociómetro] 28/05/2021: EH BILDU 27,5% (22), EAJ-PNV 39,0% (31), ELKARREKIN PODEMOS-IU 6,6% (4), PSE-EE 13,6% (10), PP+Cs 7,7% (7), VOX 1,7% (1)". Electograph (in Spanish). 28 May 2021.
Other
  1. 1 2 3 "Ley Orgánica 3/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para el País Vasco". Organic Law No. 3 of 18 December 1979 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  2. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ↑ Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). "El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  4. 1 2 3 "Ley 5/1990, de 15 de junio, de Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco". Law No. 5 of 15 June 1990 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  5. ↑ "Ley 7/1981, de 30 de junio, sobre Ley de Gobierno". Law No. 7 of 30 June 1981 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  6. ↑ Salgado, Daniel; Muñoz, Beatriz (21 December 2023). "Alfonso Rueda convoca para el 18 de febrero las primeras elecciones en Galicia sin Feijóo en 14 años". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 December 2023.
  7. ↑ "Rueda llama a Urkullu para comunicarle la fecha de las elecciones gallegas" (in Spanish). Bilbao: Europa Press. 21 December 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.
  8. ↑ "Urkullu dice que "Euskadi no es Galicia" tras la convocatoria de las gallegas el 18 de febrero" (in Spanish). Vitoria: Europa Press. 21 December 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.
  9. ↑ Lorente, Adolfo (25 November 2023). "La opción de marzo cobra fuerza para el adelanto electoral". El Correo (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 December 2023.
  10. ↑ Barriuso, Olatz (20 December 2023). "Urkullu busca exprimir su mayoría absoluta y las elecciones vascas apuntan ahora a abril". El Correo (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 December 2023.
  11. ↑ "Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco / Eusko Legebilitzarra (1980 - 2020)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 March 2019.
  12. ↑ "Parliamentarians and bodies. Groups. Composition. 12th Legislature". www.legebiltzarra.eus (in Spanish). Basque Parliament. Retrieved 7 October 2021.
  13. ↑ "Ciudadanos abandona el grupo del PP en el Parlamento Vasco y pasa a compartir el mixto con Vox" (in Spanish). EiTB. 26 July 2023. Retrieved 29 August 2023.
  14. ↑ Izarra, Josean (7 October 2021). "Luis Gordillo, ex líder de Ciudadanos y parlamentario, ficha por el PP del País Vasco". El Mundo (in Spanish). Vitoria. Retrieved 7 October 2021.
  15. ↑ "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  16. ↑ Rioja Andueza, Iker (24 November 2023). "El PNV prescinde de Urkullu y no será candidato en las elecciones vascas de 2024". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  17. ↑ Garmendia, Xabier (25 November 2023). "El PNV apuesta por Imanol Pradales como candidato a lehendakari". El Correo (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  18. ↑ "Kortajarena asume la portavocía de EH Bildu en el Parlamento Vasco tras la marcha de Iriarte y Casanova". Noticias de Gipuzkoa (in Spanish). 26 June 2023. Retrieved 26 June 2023.
  19. ↑ Guadilla, David; Barriuso, Olatz (11 December 2023). "Pello Otxandiano será el candidato a lehendakari de EH Bildu". El Correo (in Spanish). Retrieved 11 December 2023.
  20. ↑ Rioja Andueza, Iker (30 October 2021). "Eneko Andueza arrasa con un 95% de los votos en las primarias y será el nuevo líder de los socialistas vascos". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 31 October 2021.
  21. 1 2 Cortizo, Gonzalo; Ortiz, Alberto; Rioja Andueza, Iker (30 November 2023). "Sumar y Podemos tantean un acuerdo electoral en Galicia y Euskadi en medio de su escalada de tensión". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 December 2023.
  22. ↑ Goyoaga, Ander (4 November 2023). "Javier de Andrés toma el mando del PP vasco con el objetivo de atraer a votantes del PNV". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 November 2023.
  23. ↑ Rioja Andueza, Iker (14 September 2023). "Ciudadanos se estrena en Euskadi mientras desaparece en España: "Nos presentaremos a las elecciones"". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Vitoria. Retrieved 19 September 2023.
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