2004 United States presidential election in Connecticut
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 857,488 693,826
Percentage 54.31% 43.95%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Connecticut took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Connecticut was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a margin of 10.4%. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. In presidential elections, Connecticut is usually expected to fall into the Democrats' electoral vote column, as no Republican has won the state since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988. Although Connecticut was the birth state of George W. Bush, and the Bush family does have a house in the state, Connecticut was never considered competitive in 2004. This is the only election since 1968 in which the Republican nominee won the popular vote without carrying Connecticut, and the only election ever in which a Republican won two terms without ever carrying the state. As of 2020, this is the most recent election where Connecticut voted more Democratic than California and Hawaii.

As of 2020, this was the most recent presidential election in which the Republican nominee carried the towns of Bethel, Cheshire, and Madison. Bush became the first ever Republican to win without carrying the towns of Redding and Simsbury, the first to win without winning the town of Essex since that town was founded in 1852, the first to win without the town of Lyme since 1872, and the first to win without the town of Roxbury since 1904

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid D
Associated Press Solid D
CNN Likely D
Cook Political Report Solid D
Newsweek Solid D
New York Times Solid D
Rasmussen Reports Likely D
Research 2000 Solid D
Washington Post Likely D
Washington Times Solid D
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Dispatch Likely D

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll averaged Kerry leading 52% to 42% for Bush and 2% for Nader.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,256,438.[3] Kerry raised $4,195,038.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign visited or advertised in this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

All counties but Litchfield County and congressional districts went Democratic. Litchfield County is regarded as the most conservative county in the state, along with adjacent Fairfield County to the south, although this county does tend to vote majority Democratic. Hartford County, Middlesex County, New Haven County, and New London County each are regarded as the most loyally democratic counties in Connecticut. The Republican Party's last presidential victory in Connecticut was during the 1988 election of George H. W. Bush. However, Kerry's victory in Connecticut was not as large as Al Gore's lead in 2000, when the then-vice president won the state by 17.47% percent and a majority of all the state's counties. However, in 2000 Gore's running mate was Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman.

George W. Bush lost Connecticut decisively even though he was born in New Haven and is part of a family that has been a political dynasty in Connecticut for much of the 20th century. Despite his family background, as a presidential candidate Bush was considered a Texan and largely perceived as a Southern candidate, and consequently he had little appeal to voters in Northeastern states like Connecticut. Ironically, despite not winning his own birth state, Bush did win Colorado, Kerry's birth state, making this the only presidential election since 1864 where no candidate was able to win the state of the birth.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Connecticut[7]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 857,488 54.31% 7
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 693,826 43.95% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 12,969 0.82% 0
Green David Cobb 9,564 0.61% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 3,367 0.2% 0
Concerned Citizens Party Michael Peroutka 1,543 0.1% 0
Write In Roger Calero 12 0.0% 0
Totals 1,578,769 100.00% 7
Voter turnout (Voting Age population) 59.6%

By county

County John Kerry
Democratic		 George W. Bush
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total votes cast
#  % #  % #  % #  %
Fairfield 205,902 51.35% 189,605 47.29% 5,460 1.36% 16,297 4.06% 400,967
Hartford 229,902 58.68% 154,919 39.54% 6,987 1.78% 74,983 19.14% 391,808
Litchfield 44,647 46.19% 50,160 51.89% 1,861 1.92% -5,513 -5.70% 96,668
Middlesex 47,292 56.31% 35,252 41.97% 1,440 1.72% 12,040 14.34% 83,984
New Haven 199,060 54.33% 160,390 43.78% 6,942 1.89% 38,670 10.55% 366,392
New London 66,062 55.81% 49,931 42.19% 2,367 2.00% 16,131 13.62% 118,360
Tolland 39,146 54.57% 31,245 43.56% 1,338 1.87% 7,901 11.01% 71,729
Windham 25,477 52.14% 22,324 45.69% 1,060 2.16% 3,153 6.45% 48,861
Totals857,48854.31%693,82643.95%27,4551.74%163,66210.36%1,578,769
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Kerry won all 5 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 39% 60% John Larson
2nd 44% 54% Rob Simmons
3rd 42% 56% Rosa DeLauro
4th 46% 52% Chris Shays
5th 49% 49% Nancy Johnson

Electors

Technically the voters of Connecticut cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Connecticut is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Connecticut. All were pledged to John Kerry and John Edwards:

  1. Elizabeth O'Neill
  2. Andrea J. Jackson-Brooks
  3. Donna King
  4. Larry Pleasant
  5. David J. Papandrea
  6. Andres Ayala
  7. Joshua King

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved May 22, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ↑ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on June 2, 2006.
  3. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  4. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  5. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  6. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ↑ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Connecticut 2004".
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