2004 United States presidential election in Michigan
November 2, 2004
Turnout64.7% Increase[1]
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 17 0
Popular vote 2,479,183 2,313,746
Percentage 51.23% 47.81%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Michigan was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state.

Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, 2004 also marked the first time since 1976 in which the state was not carried by the candidate who led in the overall popular vote. Bush is the first Republican to win the popular vote without Michigan since the 1968 presidential race. Bush is to date the only Republican presidential candidate to win two terms in office without winning Michigan at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state.

As of 2020, this is the most recent election in which Michigan would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for the longest bellwether streak in the nation.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean D
Cook Political Report Lean D
Research 2000 Lean D
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Post Tossup
Washington Dispatch Likely D
Washington Times Lean D
The New York Times Lean D
CNN Likely D
Newsweek Lean D
Associated Press Tossup
Rasmussen Reports Tossup

Polling

Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,960,010.[4] Kerry raised $2,496,203.[5]

Advertising and visits

In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state ten times. Kerry visited seven times. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,[6] but Kerry spent slightly more each week.[7]

Analysis

Kerry won Michigan with 51.2% and by a margin of 3.4%. While a reduced margin with respect to Gore's in 2000, the state trended Democratic in 2004 relative to the nation.[8] Bush won a majority of the state's counties and congressional districts, holding Kerry to only 15 counties (whereas Gore had carried 24). But he underperformed previous Republicans in two large suburban counties that had recently been Republican strongholds in the state, Oakland and Macomb Counties. Kerry narrowly held onto Oakland County, which has a more white-collar populace and had voted Republican in every election from 1940 through 1992 save 1964, and had voted to re-elect Bill Clinton in 1996 by only 4.3%. Bush did flip the more blue-collar Macomb County, which Gore had become the second Democrat to carry after a twenty-year run of voting Republican from 1972 through 1992, but he carried it by only 1.4%, making it still slightly bluer than the nation. Meanwhile, Kerry maintained the traditional Democratic domination of Wayne County, winning about the same 69% vote share in it that Gore had won in 2000. Michigan had voted Republican in every election from 1972 through 1988, in all of which Oakland and Macomb had given the Republican a healthy margin.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Michigan
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 2,479,183 51.2% 17
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,313,746 47.8% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 24,035 0.5% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 10,552 0.2% 0
Green David Cobb 5,325 0.1% 0
US Taxpayers Michael Peroutka 4,980 0.1% 0
Natural Law Walt Brown 1,431 0.0% 0
Totals 4,839,252 100.00% 17
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population) 64.2%

By county

County John Kerry
Democratic		 George W. Bush
Republican		 Various candidates
Other parties		 Margin Total votes cast
#  % #  % #  % #  %
Alcona 2,871 43.96% 3,592 55.00% 68 1.04% -721 -11.04% 6,531
Alger 2,395 50.26% 2,318 48.65% 52 1.09% 77 1.61% 4,765
Allegan 19,355 35.90% 34,022 63.11% 530 0.98% -14,667 -27.21% 53,907
Alpena 7,407 48.70% 7,665 50.39% 139 0.91% -258 -1.69% 15,211
Antrim 5,072 37.24% 8,379 61.52% 168 1.23% -3,307 -24.28% 13,619
Arenac 4,076 49.61% 4,071 49.55% 69 0.84% 5 0.06% 8,216
Baraga 1,660 45.06% 1,977 53.66% 47 1.28% -317 -8.60% 3,684
Barry 11,312 37.37% 18,638 61.57% 322 1.06% -7,326 -24.20% 30,272
Bay 31,049 54.42% 25,448 44.60% 562 0.98% 5,601 9.82% 57,059
Benzie 4,383 44.83% 5,284 54.04% 111 1.14% -901 -9.21% 9,778
Berrien 32,846 43.99% 41,076 55.01% 749 1.00% -8,230 -11.02% 74,671
Branch 7,004 38.98% 10,784 60.02% 179 1.00% -3,780 -21.04% 17,967
Calhoun 29,891 47.70% 32,093 51.21% 683 1.09% -2,202 -3.51% 62,667
Cass 9,537 42.02% 12,964 57.12% 196 0.86% -3,427 -15.10% 22,697
Charlevoix 5,729 40.52% 8,214 58.09% 196 1.39% -2,485 -17.57% 14,139
Cheboygan 5,941 42.78% 7,798 56.15% 148 1.07% -1,857 -13.37% 13,887
Chippewa 7,203 43.69% 9,122 55.33% 163 0.99% -1,919 -11.64% 16,488
Clare 6,984 49.09% 7,088 49.82% 154 1.08% -104 -0.73% 14,226
Clinton 15,483 40.95% 21,989 58.16% 335 0.89% -6,506 -17.21% 37,807
Crawford 3,126 43.21% 4,017 55.52% 92 1.27% -891 -12.31% 7,235
Delta 9,381 48.76% 9,680 50.32% 177 0.92% -299 -1.56% 19,238
Dickinson 5,650 41.70% 7,734 57.08% 165 1.22% -2,084 -15.38% 13,549
Eaton 25,411 45.58% 29,781 53.41% 563 1.01% -4,370 -7.83% 55,755
Emmet 6,846 39.41% 10,332 59.48% 194 1.12% -3,486 -20.07% 17,372
Genesee 128,334 60.03% 83,870 39.23% 1,571 0.73% 44,464 20.80% 213,775
Gladwin 6,343 47.95% 6,770 51.18% 114 0.86% -427 -3.23% 13,227
Gogebic 4,421 52.31% 3,935 46.56% 96 1.14% 486 5.75% 8,452
Grand Traverse 18,256 39.52% 27,446 59.42% 489 1.06% -9,190 -19.90% 46,191
Gratiot 7,377 42.45% 9,834 56.59% 168 0.97% -2,457 -14.14% 17,379
Hillsdale 7,123 35.23% 12,804 63.34% 289 1.43% -5,681 -28.11% 20,216
Houghton 6,731 42.46% 8,889 56.08% 231 1.46% -2,158 -13.62% 15,851
Huron 7,629 43.68% 9,671 55.37% 166 0.95% -2,042 -11.69% 17,466
Ingham 76,877 57.78% 54,734 41.14% 1,442 1.08% 22,143 16.64% 133,053
Ionia 10,647 38.55% 16,621 60.18% 350 1.27% -5,974 -21.63% 27,618
Iosco 6,557 46.82% 7,301 52.13% 148 1.06% -744 -5.31% 14,006
Iron 3,215 49.38% 3,224 49.52% 72 1.11% -9 -0.14% 6,511
Isabella 12,334 50.57% 11,754 48.19% 302 1.24% 580 2.38% 24,390
Jackson 31,025 43.21% 40,029 55.75% 741 1.03% -9,004 -12.54% 71,795
Kalamazoo 61,462 51.31% 57,147 47.71% 1,174 0.98% 4,315 3.60% 119,783
Kalkaska 3,189 38.05% 5,084 60.67% 107 1.28% -1,895 -22.62% 8,380
Kent 116,909 40.19% 171,201 58.85% 2,781 0.96% -54,292 -18.66% 290,891
Keweenaw 630 43.78% 781 54.27% 28 1.95% -151 -10.49% 1,439
Lake 2,675 50.99% 2,503 47.71% 68 1.30% 172 3.28% 5,246
Lapeer 18,086 40.97% 25,556 57.89% 505 1.14% -7,470 -16.92% 44,147
Leelanau 6,048 43.46% 7,733 55.57% 136 0.98% -1,685 -12.11% 13,917
Lenawee 20,787 44.22% 25,675 54.61% 550 1.17% -4,888 -10.39% 47,012
Livingston 33,991 36.26% 58,860 62.79% 891 0.95% -24,869 -26.53% 93,742
Luce 1,045 36.94% 1,749 61.82% 35 1.24% -704 -24.88% 2,829
Mackinac 2,819 42.72% 3,706 56.16% 74 1.12% -887 -13.44% 6,599
Macomb 196,160 48.75% 202,166 50.24% 4,084 1.01% -6,006 -1.49% 402,410
Manistee 6,272 49.23% 6,295 49.41% 173 1.36% -23 -0.18% 12,740
Marquette 17,412 53.60% 14,690 45.22% 386 1.19% 2,722 8.38% 32,488
Mason 6,333 43.34% 8,124 55.60% 154 1.05% -1,791 -12.26% 14,611
Mecosta 7,730 43.97% 9,710 55.23% 141 0.80% -1,980 -11.26% 17,581
Menominee 5,326 46.64% 5,942 52.04% 151 1.32% -616 -5.40% 11,419
Midland 18,355 42.41% 24,369 56.31% 551 1.27% -6,014 -13.90% 43,275
Missaukee 2,319 31.25% 5,055 68.12% 47 0.63% -2,736 -36.87% 7,421
Monroe 36,089 48.68% 37,470 50.54% 573 0.77% -1,381 -1.86% 74,132
Montcalm 11,471 42.91% 14,968 55.99% 295 1.10% -3,497 -13.08% 26,734
Montmorency 2,196 39.48% 3,300 59.32% 67 1.20% -1,104 -19.84% 5,563
Muskegon 44,282 55.14% 35,302 43.96% 729 0.91% 8,980 11.18% 80,313
Newaygo 9,057 39.60% 13,608 59.49% 208 0.91% -4,551 -19.89% 22,873
Oakland 319,387 49.75% 316,633 49.32% 5,957 0.93% 2,754 0.43% 641,977
Oceana 5,441 44.25% 6,677 54.30% 179 1.46% -1,236 -10.05% 12,297
Ogemaw 5,215 48.30% 5,454 50.52% 127 1.18% -239 -2.22% 10,796
Ontonagon 1,863 44.44% 2,262 53.96% 67 1.60% -399 -9.52% 4,192
Osceola 4,467 39.93% 6,599 58.98% 122 1.09% -2,132 -19.05% 11,188
Oscoda 1,792 40.64% 2,570 58.29% 47 1.07% -778 -17.65% 4,409
Otsego 4,674 37.98% 7,470 60.70% 163 1.32% -2,796 -22.72% 12,307
Ottawa 35,552 27.64% 92,048 71.55% 1,043 0.81% -56,496 -43.91% 128,643
Presque Isle 3,432 45.66% 3,982 52.98% 102 1.36% -550 -7.32% 7,516
Roscommon 6,810 47.43% 7,364 51.28% 185 1.29% -554 -3.85% 14,359
Saginaw 54,887 53.37% 47,165 45.86% 800 0.78% 7,722 7.51% 102,852
St. Clair 36,174 45.36% 42,740 53.60% 829 1.04% -6,566 -8.24% 79,743
St. Joseph 9,648 38.23% 15,340 60.78% 251 0.99% -5,692 -22.55% 25,239
Sanilac 7,883 37.97% 12,632 60.84% 248 1.19% -4,749 -22.87% 20,763
Schoolcraft 2,137 48.12% 2,267 51.05% 37 0.83% -130 -2.93% 4,441
Shiawassee 16,881 46.06% 19,407 52.95% 363 0.99% -2,526 -6.89% 36,651
Tuscola 12,631 44.57% 15,389 54.31% 318 1.12% -2,758 -9.74% 28,338
Van Buren 16,151 47.26% 17,634 51.60% 389 1.14% -1,483 -4.34% 34,174
Washtenaw 109,953 63.46% 61,455 35.47% 1,856 1.07% 48,498 27.99% 173,264
Wayne 600,047 69.39% 257,750 29.81% 6,931 0.80% 342,297 39.58% 864,728
Wexford 6,034 39.80% 8,966 59.14% 160 1.06% -2,932 -19.34% 15,160
Totals2,479,18351.23%2,313,74647.81%46,3230.96%165,4373.42%4,839,252
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[9]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 53% 46% Bart Stupak
2nd 60% 39% Peter Hoekstra
3rd 59% 40% Vern Ehlers
4th 55% 44% Dave Camp
5th 41% 59% Dale Kildee
6th 53% 46% Fred Upton
7th 54% 45% Nick Smith
Joe Schwarz
8th 54% 45% Mike Rogers
9th 51% 49% Joe Knollenberg
10th 57% 43% Candice Miller
11th 53% 47% Thaddeus McCotter
12th 39% 61% Sander Levin
13th 19% 81% Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
14th 17% 83% John Conyers Jr.
15th 38% 62% John Dingell

Electors

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

  1. Carol Vining Moore
  2. Margaret Robinson
  3. Ida I. DeHaas
  4. Marcela L. Ort
  5. Vickie Sue Price
  6. Paul Todd
  7. Leonard Smigielski
  8. Bruce McAttee
  9. Stanley W. Harris
  10. Yvonne Williams
  11. Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
  12. Charley Jackson
  13. Joan Robinson Cheeks
  14. Roger Short
  15. Harless Scott
  16. Richard Shoemaker
  17. Michael Pitt

See also

References

  1. ↑ "SOS - General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics". Archived from the original on December 6, 2018. Retrieved December 6, 2018.
  2. ↑ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 13, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. ↑ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on November 28, 2008.
  4. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Archived from the original on September 5, 2017. Retrieved September 8, 2009.
  5. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". Archived from the original on September 5, 2017. Retrieved September 8, 2009.
  6. ↑ "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  7. ↑ "America votes 2004: SHOWDOWN STATES: MICHIGAN". CNN. Archived from the original on June 12, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  8. ↑ Leip, Dave (September 17, 2020). "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on October 26, 2020. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
  9. ↑ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Archived from the original on October 16, 2015. Retrieved July 16, 2009.
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